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2024-11-15 07:00 by Karl Denninger
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All three.

House, Senate and Presidency.

There is thus no blocking of agendas.  No bogus impeachments.  No games.

Either tear down the medical monopolists and illegal invader problem -- all of it -- using existing statutory authority in 15 USC Chapter 1 and 8 USC 1324 and do it within the first few months or, by the time the House and Senate midterms start to be contested which is in the spring of 2026 Trump loses both.

The inflation monster is going to roar back on the field.  It matters not if you were responsible or not; if you're in the left seat when the plane crashes its your fault whether you put the water in the fuel or the idiot on the ramp did it.

15 USC Chapter 1 has been litigated to the Supreme Court in the context of medical care and insurance and found valid.  The defenses were attempted and failed.  I've pointed this out for more than two decades now but nobody wants to take it on.  You don't seek fines you indict and imprison doctors, pharmaceutical company executives, hospital CEOs and insurance firm officers, directors and executives.  Every person seeking medical procedure, drug or device must pay the same price for the same thing irrespective of their "insurance" or who is paying the bill, "insurance" companies may not interfere in any way in pricing or otherwise (but may set their own reimbursements after you got the bill) and you must consent whenever it is physically possible for you to do so before you incur the expense.  Read here; its all there.

On illegal immigration 8 USC 1324 is clear: Any entity or person harboring or assisting an illegal alien is subject to 10 or more years in prison.  No fines, no games, you do it you are indicted and go to prison with no exceptions.  I don't care what the excuse is -- its invalid.  Do it and do it now.  You do this and the entire problem is solved immediately because all the employers, landlords and state governments handing out gibs will stop as none of them are going to deal with a 10 year prison sentence and no, State government officials are not exempt from Federal Law.

There is plenty more but these two must be done immediately.  The collapse of pricing -- cost of living -- has to happen.  There is no way to catch up through wages which is irrelevant to anyone on fixed income anyway as the government cannot, and does not, actually index for (as an example) the doubling in food prices that has already happened in Social Security payouts.  Further medical cost is wildly in excess of anything Medicare can receive from taxes and Medicaid is a pure give-away.

The math is clear; real world inflation hasn't been 20% over the last three years and change it has been closer to 50% and in many things you must buy like groceries it has been a clean double.

But let's assume its just 25% -- a few points above the government's official claim.

2% "Fed Inflation" - 2% productivity growth (long-term average reasonable expectation) - 3% real wage increases (that's 5% in "current dollars" given a 2% inflation rate) = 3% per year "catch-up" so you won't for eight years assuming that the real inflation rate is in fact 2%.  If its 3% then the "catch up" time is 50% longer or 12 years.  If the real inflation was not 25% but in fact is 50%, and it is, then you'll either be nearing retirement if you're in your 20s today or dead, and that assumes that over that entire period of time there are no more inflationary bursts from any cause whatsoever.

In other words that's not only not going to happen it is inevitably going to financially destroy Americans in size and lead to a revolt of some sort -- whether peaceful or quite-possibly not, particularly when the cost of borrowing is going to continue to increase for the next couple of decades so if you, as an average American, are "charging it" you're going to financially blow up with absolute certainty long before you catch up.

Either we collapse the cost-of-living and accept what comes from that in the asset markets (and yeah, it will be serious) or in the midterms the Republicans lose both houses and that's the end of the show because the Democrats will not take those steps.  The root of the problem lies in these two places; there are plenty of others to be addressed but if these two are not done the rest doesn't matter.

Incidentally, if you want further evidence of the inflationary impact and how close the impending detonation is, and why it must be taken care of right now and criminal indictments must come in size, right now -- no excuses -- the single-month deficit spending was outrageous in October; last month CMS spending was up over 50% compared with the same month last year.  The internals were even more-ridiculous; benefit payments under the supplemental trust fund were 243% last year's levels -- almost 2-1/2 times and hospital payouts were at 209% last year's figures for the same month.

Last chance folks, and it literally has to begin with no excuses -- and plenty of felony indictments -- on January 20th at 12:01 PM.