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2022-12-05 17:48 by Karl Denninger
in POTD , 309 references

train home, that is...


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2022-12-05 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 1739 references
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Read this carefully folks....

Municipality and county officials “have formed a plan for the night and the next few nights that we may be out of power. It’s a very serious situation,” Fields said. “So we’ve come to an agreement to best protect our citizens and to protect the businesses of our county, we’re going to implement a curfew tonight.”

The power outage in Moore County is being investigated as a “criminal occurrence” after crews found signs of potential vandalism at several locations, CNN previously reported.

Two substations taken out with (presumed) small-arms rifle fire (e.g. bog-standard hunting rifles) from what obviously were a very small group of people, perhaps one or two at each location pissed off about who-knows-what.

Question: Why couldn't this be immediately fixed?

Answer: They don't have spares for the parts that were damaged.

It's a gun folks, not a large blast that destroyed the land around the area.  Equipment was damaged.  Ok, so replace it and turn the power back on.

That only works if you have the replacements, which they obviously do not.  There is nowhere in this nation where you can't drive a truck full of equipment across a single county in a couple of hours.  Doing so requires you have the replacements.

Why do they not have the spares?

Because we sent our supply lines overseas, we made no provisions to have spares, and the regulators at the state and federal level sat on their hands and played with themselves instead of requiring that providers of critical services, such as electricity, had a sufficient stock of spares to cover both routine failures and those caused by weather or low-grade assaults perpetrated by small numbers of people.

This is the gross incompetence we have throughout our society.  It is the manifestation of "oh nothing bad will ever happen so we don't have to be prepared for it" that has shown up in all manner of other places, such as the cars that are completed except for chips in their engine computers without which they will not run, and thus they're sitting in a field unsold.

Rather than insist that such critical items be produced here in the United States, including all precursor components over the last couple of decades we did nothing of the sort.  We allowed the nickel to be "saved" and then pocketed by the shareholders, directors and officers while offshoring supply to China and other places which have no duty to US citizens.

We then went further in our official malfeasance and performed no audits or forced corrective action when the spares were not available and resupply looked possibly challenged, to the point that vehicles are stacked up and can't be sold for want of a chip and now power is out in an entire county because the switchgear and transformers in two bog-standard substations that feed the area were damaged and the power company has no spares available to immediately replace them.

What you should learn from this is that this sort of disruption is tiny compared to what ever one hundred dedicated men, uncorrelated and thus unable to be interdicted in advance could do any time they decided to.

Further, while I'm sure they'll find the parts somewhere in the US and restore power if the damage was to fifty counties instead of one the odds are high that said parts would not exist at all in the United States and might not be available in sufficient quantity to actually restore service to everyone for months or even longer.

"Oh, that could never happen", says you?

We have a secure border and a group of a couple hundred gang-banger terrorists that want to screw America couldn't get in along with all those "migrants" undetected and do this all over the place right?

What if you're wrong?

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2022-12-02 09:11 by Karl Denninger
in Employment , 3048 references
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Vomited forth the BLS did....

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government. Employment declined in retail trade and in transportation and warehousing.

Uh huh.  The market no likey thinking that The Fed will be more aggressive and the initial response was to dump about 75 handles.

However -- inside there is a different story.  Note that the Establishment survey, which is what the headline number is based on, counts you as two jobs if you have two jobs; that is, "employed" is double-counted there if you have two jobs inherently (leaving aside intentional bias) because the two employers generally don't know about each other.

On the household side the unadjusted number was -395,000, and more to the point 650,000 people left the labor force - that is, they gave up for whatever reason.

The "employment by educational attainment" figures were interesting as well -- they showed that degree holders got hammered.  One has to wonder if the Twitter firings were in there, but that wasn't that large and there was a drop of 348,000 in that category and, more-ominously, 316,000 people disappeared out of that bucket entirely.

Since you can't "lose" educational status once you get into that top bucket, that of a Bachelor's or better, the only way out of that bucket is to die.

(Ok, to be fair there are two other ways -- you can go to prison or wind up in a nursing home, but the latter usually ends in "die" too they're the same.  I don't recall mass-imprisonment of banksters and cryptofraud purveyors, even though I'd like to see it.)

I don't take this as a "strong report" although the market clearly has.  Further, we're still putting more than 40,000 people into Health Care on a monthly basis, which is grossly increasing the cost and drag on the economy, yet health care is at best symbiotic and at worst parasitic in that it produces nothing (it may, however, allow someone who otherwise wouldn't produce to do so.)

This print looks, to me, like the inception of a significant recession -- which is likely to be especially fun in the coming months considering that January, in particular, is usually a firing month.

We'll see.

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2022-11-29 11:27 by Karl Denninger
in Market Musings , 484 references
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Oh look at the lie that is trivially discernible if you read the article.

Discount-hunting shoppers snapped up more Pokemon cards, TVs and air fryers on Cyber Monday, pushing sales to $11.3 billion, making it the biggest U.S. online shopping day in history, according to data from Adobe Analytics.

Sales, not adjusted for inflation, rose 5.8% from a year ago, per data from Adobe Analytics,....

Why is the "biggest online shopping day in history" a lie?

Because inflation is greater than 5.8% as measured by the annual CPI which is up 7.7% over the last 12 months, so in terms of "stuff sold" this Cyber Monday was actually DOWN compared with last year.

What's worse is that both consumer confidence and inflation expectations went the wrong way.  

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 100.2 this month from 102.2 in October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 100.0. Still, the index remains above its COVID-19 pandemic lows. It places more emphasis on the labor market, which remains tight.

Consumers' 12-month inflation expectations increased to 7.2% from 6.9% last month.

The latter is a serious problem for those who think The Fed is "done" or "will slow down" when it comes to rate increases and liquidity withdrawal.  Consumer inflation expectations tend to be very "sticky" and those expectations are what drive behavior.

The bottom line is that nobody believes The Fed -- or the government -- has yet or will in the next year get a handle on the inflation problem which is, at its core, very simple: Spending more money, as a government than you first tax.

Buckle up.

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2022-11-28 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 549 references
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This applies to all such medical technology -- both mRNA and "viral vector" game-playing, neither of which had ever seen widespread use prior to the virus that must not be named.

The argument is pretty simple:

Every single sexually-reproducing thing starts with the fusion of two gametes into one cell.  From this single cell division and then differentiation takes place.  Within the first few sets of division that differentiation begins to express, and it is why you have two arms, two legs, two eyeballs, a brain, genitals and similar.  All those elements of your being are the several-time down progeny of that one original cell.

This differentiation occurs as a result of the cellular machinery in each and every cell executing on what originally was and remains a unique combination of DNA from those two gametes.  That is, each cell in your body contains the same DNA yet the function of a muscle cell in your arm is very different than the function of a cell in the retina of your eye.

The premise of all "vector" medication, no matter the purpose (e.g. vaccination, treatment, etc.) is that we understand all of this process and what we intend to change we have complete understanding and thus can control what happens over time. We know what, exactly, it will do -- and that what we introduce will do nothing else.

This premise is false; if it was not we would know how to turn parts of the genetic code back on when we want to and, for example, cause the heart to regenerate the damaged portions after an occlusive heart attack when we've successfully restored blood flow, or similarly with an occlusive stroke.  We could cause your amputated finger, toe or entire leg to grow back.

We can, in fact, do none of these things and the reason is that we do not understand how it is that such takes place originally and thus we can't manipulate it successfully.  Decades of trying to figure this out have, at this point, all been failures.  The day they succeed is the day that this becomes common:

Today that is science fiction and the reason it is fiction is that we don't understand how this all happens in the body with any reasonable degree of certainty.  If we did we'd have solved this problem, we'd have solved cancer in its entirety and any damaged part of the body could be replaced.  In point of fact only the liver regenerates in this fashion if part of it is removed -- and we don't know why, nor how to translate that to the rest of the body.

To tamper with the "instruction set" within the cell without understanding this in full is inherently dangerous to a level that reaches ridiculous stupidity and is arguably criminal insanity, particularly when deployed on a population-wide basis instead of in very small groups of willing volunteers who all understand that the odds are very material the attempt is going to kill them.  The risk of doing this sort of thing is unbounded and worse, since it is unbounded the outcome in one person .vs. another is also unknown and unknowable at our current level of cellular machinery knowledge.  We know, for example, that while smoking causes lung (and other) cancers it does not do so in every person.  My Aunt Marg smoked like a damned chimney yet when she finally succumbed to old age at 94 what got her was kidney failure -- not cancer.  How and why despite putting several packs of smokes into her lungs daily no cancer occurred at a clinical level is a complete unknown yet that it happened is fact and I have the death certificate to prove it.  I would certainly not, on this basis, recommend that someone smoke.  But it is absolutely true that no medical person and no scientist can tell you why one person gets nailed and the other does not in this circumstance.  There is an answer to that question and if we discover it doing so would allow us to prevent every single smoking-related cancer death.

The problem is that until we do, along with all the other mysteries in this process that are of the same general sort tampering with the cellular machinery in the fashion these "therapies" and/or "vaccines" do is inherently dangerous and there is no way to exclude said risks because we cannot answer the question of why certain cellular changes happen on a scientific basis and thus we can't exclude that unwanted ones will occur when we deliberately screw around with the process itself.

Can this explain the sort of thing embalmers are reporting with "coffee grounds" and "long, stringy clot-like things" in cadavers post Covid jabs?  You bet.  What we can't explain is why it happens, but that it showed up at the same time the jabs did, and has not gone away, is strong evidence that something has dysregulated the body's cellular functions.  That material looks an awful lot like the sort of connective tissue that is supposed to be in other parts of the body or the fibrin structures that form blood clots (and in fact these structures are all over other parts of the body) yet should never, ever be in the circulation and absent screwed up cellular processes never is.

Never mind all sorts of other "gets this guy, but not that gal" types of damage at wildly-improbable ages (e.g. extremely aggressive cancers that historically do not get young people at all, or cancers that were under control and suddenly, post-jab become wildly-aggressive and non-responsive to our existing set of treatments) -- which we are in fact seeing.  That it doesn't happen to everyone in fact points to this sort of risk and reason for the appearance of these events just as the fact that we know smoking causes lung cancer but not everyone who smokes gets lung cancer.

Can I prove I'm right?  Nope.

But is it clear, obvious and undeniable that we do not understand the cellular machinery, differentiation and how to manipulate it successfully -- and as a direct result any attempt to manipulate it at genetic level, which all "vector" technologies do and in fact are their purpose and design are and will remain extremely dangerous, and thus should be absolutely banned unless the person in question (1) cannot reproduce and thus it is not possible for them to pass any possible damage to the next generation and (2) they are personally screwed (e.g. have cancer) and as a result such a "therapy" is a last-ditch attempt to keep what is otherwise inevitable death at bay until and unless we have a full and complete understanding of same sufficient to be able to hand out kidney-regrowing pills as McCoy did?

You bet.

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