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2024-06-19 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 134 references
[Comments enabled]  
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Yes, it is hot in Chicago.

I lived in Chicago in the late 1980s.  The record for June 20th is 104F, followed by 101 on the 21st and 97 on the 22nd.  That's just a few days from now and is associated with this thing that happens every year called "summer."  The year?  1988.

My car overheated coming off the freeway on those days.  I was not pleased.  Fortunately I didn't blow the head gasket or crack the cylinder head, but it was not fun.  At all.

So spare me the "hottest evaaaaah!" garbage.

Some of you young folks might not even be old enough to remember any of this, but when you have to get to work and back and hope your car doesn't blow up on you as you simply don't have the funds to buy a new one, yeah, you tend to remember things like this.

Incidentally here in Tennessee I recorded a non-heat-island real number (on my porch, which is under the awning and thus a clean read of the air) at 93.4F @ 16:40 ET; I record every 20 minutes.  That's not a record high either for June 18th -- that was set in 1944 when we were all driving SUVs... and it hit 102.

In fact that same 1988 heat did come here, but a day or two later -- from the 22nd - 26th it was between 99 - 102F every day.

It is very unlikely we're going to break that streak in the next few days.

Never mind the "dust bowl" years during which there were no formal records kept in many areas to compare against but in places where there were records were set that still stand today -- and no, everyone was not driving an SUV never mind that there were many fewer carbon-spewing humans on said land as well.

Stop listening to people hyping nonsense folks.

Or even better, find all of their employers, along with everything else they are involved in ruin it all.

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2024-06-18 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 388 references
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Schumer was roasted for an image "he" posted on Father's Day on X while claiming to be "one of the rest of us" grilling out.

He has since deleted it but I saw it, and its not fake news -- it featured a cheese slice on a raw beef patty on "his" grill.

Obviously the man has never grilled anything in his life; if you did do that you'd wind up with a half-raw hamburger with cheese on top and take a decent risk of getting violently ill due to food poisoning were you foolish enough to eat it.

Its all fake and gay, obviously, but what's worse is that its likely a dozen or more people associated with Schumer all were part of taking that image, putting together the post, actually sending it and similar as he is clearly not doing this all on his own while grilling hamburgers.

Not one of the people involved in that process saw anything wrong with it -- in other words, all of them have likely never cooked a hamburger themselves in their lives, on a grill or otherwise.

You'd think that's insane and yet the evidence is that this is exactly what happened.

Now think about this in the context of every other Senator and every issue that faces every ordinary American.  The evidence is that not only are none the Senators in any way "exposed" to any of the ordinary challenges and experiences of life neither are any of their staff and as such they write rules and laws that everyone is expected to follow yet they have literally no knowledge of the impact of doing so nor are they subject to any of it themselves.

Schumer could author a bill tomorrow to ban grills under penalty of imprisonment and he would not care as he has never actually used one.  Not just now but at no time in his life has he used one as he clearly did not know the very basics of using one to cook a hamburger.

We do not live in a "Representative Republic" anymore; precisely when that became the case is subject to plenty of debate.  But what's not subject to reasonable debate anymore is that in fact these people in DC including their entire staff is not representing anyone other than themselves.  None of them go to the grocery store, buy homeowners, auto or health insurance, buy or rent housing, deal with the medical system that the rest of us are forced to (including its financial rape profile for the average American), pump their own gas -- or even grill a hamburger.

Why would anyone put up with any of the crap they spew at the rest of us given these facts?

Oh by the way, the GOP is now saying they're going to pass another CR to take them well beyond the election in 2025 which means that there will be no rate cuts, the inflationary pressure will continue and you will keep getting screwed.  If you think the squeeze that you're experiencing will find some relief in the back half of the year it most-certainly will not and a huge part of the reason is that exactly zero of those people in Congress give a crap as they've protected themselves from all of it at your expenseexactly as they did so with the covid shots your employer mandated but they were exempt from having to take themselves.

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2024-06-15 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 572 references
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..... societies rot from the head.

Let's take all the screaming about Florida and the rain in Miami.  Its Florida.  It has a tropical climate.  It rains in tropical climates, often quite a lot all at once.  Miami was quite literally built largely on reclaimed swampland (thus the old jokes about "swampland in Florida", which were true) and when you disrupt natural ecosystems (which was done 100 years ago originally and onward) you create more problems.  Building high-density "things" of course covers ground with concrete and other impermeable materials and proper stormwater drainage is both expensive and environmentally risky because all that concrete and similar collects things you don't want in the water so if you drain it directly out there not only do you have to spend the money but you also have a pollution issue.

There are no particularly-simple answers to this set of issues when people want to live in such a place.  But there are a lot of people who will scream about it.

How about the condo and insurance situation?  But for the wink-wink-nod-nod garbage the associations would have both had to put in place proper reserves (e.g. sinking funds) along with inspections and, when originally built, the as-builts would have to actually match the plans.  We know they often don't, and one of the reasons they don't is what I personally saw up in NW FL when I had a dock put in and the electrical was done wrong.  That was a "little thing" that could have killed me if I didn't catch it.  I did catch it and fix it, but the fact of the matter is the inspector never got out of his truck because he didn't look; if he had he would have caught it and it never would have gotten a final sign-off.

So you say "oh its just laziness."  Well, no.  The incentives are for the state and counties to not do these things right up until people die because if you have a proper sinking fund, inspections, maintenance and repairs, and buildings have to be built the right way in the first place all of those are costs and those costs mean that the selling price, and the escalation of said price over time as the property trades hands, is attenuated compared with not doing that.

So the State, which loves money (of course) and which charges property and sales taxes, wants to see higher prices and more transactions.  This of course is a perverse incentive to not look and its all good -- wink-wink-nod-nod -- right up until a building collapses and people die.

Or a hurricane comes and the buildings that were assembled without proper roofing meeting code requirements put in place long before they went up are ripped to shreds and then the insurance companies get caught flat-footed and as a result they re-rate everyone since they can't be sure who is and who isn't actually compliant.  But remember, that "price appreciation" in the house was great, right?  What would it have sold for if it was known that in order to have it actually meet code and thus not get destroyed you'd have to strip the roof to the actual trusses -- decking and all -- and re-do it?

It gets better -- you have municipalities that either impose fees and permit requirements or worse, flat-out refuse to allow homeowners to take down trees within the fall-line of their roof!  So now you get a storm and I don't care how you built the place a tree comes down on top of it, it rains inside for 24 hours and of course that destroys everything.  Again, the root cause isn't the storm -- its the municipality that instead of incentivizing doing smart things makes it difficult or worse, impossible to mitigate said risks in advance.

How about the jabs?

Here we had the worst incentive combination there could ever be.  A law that gave basically blanket immunity for anything other than provable knowing misconduct (really tough to prove thatand paid for product irrespective of whether it was any good.  Now anything just short of the line of malice murder gets paid for -- negligence or even substitution of process without proof of equivalence first is perfectly fine!  If the new process is faster and cheaper guess which gets used?  Uh huh.

Think that was just jabs?  Oh no it wasn't.  Remdesivir anyone?  Hospitals being paid for procedures even though they were known worthless early on, such as in that specific case?  Denying anyone who asked access to known safe drugs (like Ivermectin and Budesonide, both with enormous data on safety and neither of material concern when used for a few days if ill) because they were not "on the standard protocol" but Remdesivir was so anyone who showed up at a hospital with Covid got that crap crammed in them.  Oh by the way it was known long before Covid that it has a known risk of destroying your kidneys.  How many people died from that?  We have no way to know for sure but what we do know with absolute certainty is that the hospitals and doctors got paid for every single body that went through the door no matter whether you left in a box or on your own two feet.

If you think drugs were bad we knew in March of 2020 that ventilators were worthless.  How did we know this?  Because they tried using them in China and virtually everyone they used them on with Covid died.  Remember this chart I reported on in March of 2020?


Yet our government not only bought billions of dollars worth of these devices that were known worthless after this data was public they added a bonus paid to every hospital for each person they used this known-worthless intervention on.  Just like in China when they were used on people here they almost-invariably failed to save the person yet the hospital got its bonus anyway.  That is, hospitals were paid to use a known-worthless at best and likely DEADLY device for someone with this disease.

Never mind Paxlovid that the government bought a crap-ton of and now the study work is in that it does..... nothing.  Of course "experts" (how are they compensated again?) still think you should take it if you're at higher risk despite not actually working.  The confidence interval crossed zero even in people at high risk as well -- which means statistically its worthless.

If you think this is limited to the pandemic when it comes to medicine you're nuts.  Explain Hale -- who was under mental health care and yet...... did they get paid given that going on a murderous rampage is hardly "success" when it comes to someone's mental health?  Of course they did.

How about Realtors and others in the markets today?  "Buy this house with some sort of short-term incentive and when rates come down, which they will in a year or so, refinance!"  On what evidence is the claim of imminent rate reductions made?  That if we stuff enough people into a situation where they'll go bankrupt if they don't drop rates they'll have to?  Is that not the same bullshit excuse Obama ran with his DREAMer garbage even though he admitted at the time he knew damn well it was illegal?  Well how about when this time they can't drop rates because the government is running a 30%+ fiscal deficit and if they try it the market will force an infinite-sized loss up the Fed's -- and thus the government's -- backside?  Never mind that the market has always been the one to set rates, not the Fed in the first place so if you expect rates to come down you have to be able to find a reason why the bond market will accept less interest than it is getting today.  Good luck with that when the government is running a $2 trillion a year -- and accelerating -- deficit.  May I remind you that with $33 trillion out and $2 trillion in deficit that's 2/33 = 6.05% devaluation at the federal level alone which means at the current IRX of 5.24% you're actually still losing a bit of money and thus no rates are not "restrictive" as people are actually still being paid a tiny amount to borrow in real terms and thus if you think creditors will accept losing half that increase every year, which is exactly what has to happen for rates to fall to where people claim they will you're out of your fucking mind!

I could spend hours on the litany, but it all comes down to one thing: There is no Rule of Law that matters when you are rich and powerful otherwise a huge number of rich and powerful people would be in prison because all of this bullshit is feloniously illegal.

Fixing prices and otherwise manipulating markets by collusion is a felony.  So is providing any assistance to an illegal alien.  That they went after Hunter and Trump is irrelevant when there are thousands of others, all "scions of industry", who didn't get prosecuted at all despite all of this going on for decades and this is why we have the mess we're in today.

I've written on all of this before, of course.  But this much is clear: Both major political parties and all the minor ones are all-in on this.  I couldn't even get the Libertarians to get interested in going after Health Care when I was in Florida and on the EC; my attempts to do so failed despite that being an 80% issue -- that is, everyone in the general public other than the employees of said firms would love having the cost of medical care be one fifth of what it is now.

You'd think that would be enough incentive as that's plenty of margin to win elections.  You're wrong, and the reason is they all support it because they all love the money flows from it and if people die or are impoverished as a result they don't care.

So what answers are there if you can't vote to get out of this mess?

Well, you could run the guilty parties (as you see it) over with your truck, kidnap and torture a few of them, burn their houses or just shoot them.  All that's very illegal, of course, and you would be prosecuted and either jailed or even executed for doing it.  You can't form a group to do that because the cops will obviously detect it beforehand and then you still go to jail but you get no deterrence out of it, which is the point (never mind retribution.)  Further, at least the first few would be written off as "lone nutjobs" so it would take enough events for people to realize that heh, there really are a decent number of people who mean it and if we don't cut it out we're next.  How many would that take?  I have no idea but this much is certain: It wouldn't be one or two; just look at the Pavlovian response in the stonk mucket the last year or so.

Here's the really nasty part: There is a perfectly legal alternative that would also work, and in fact it might work better because when someone dies their anguish ends; if you can make their anguish permanent until they expire from other causes you had nothing to do with then the message you send is even stronger.  And the best of part of it is that nobody can stop you even if you collude with others because its not against the law and can't be made illegal, and further you can do it on a derivative basis to all their loved ones too and since its not illegal there's not jack and crap anyone can do about it.

What am I talking about?

Cutting off anyone and everyone involved in any of this horseshit, without exception, including family members, loved ones and businesses, making clear exactly why you're doing it very publicly which of course today is really easy because we have this thing called "The Internet" and "Social Media" where you can shame all of them repeatedly, publicly and again because refusing to associate with someone because you believe they're an asshole is not illegal there's not dick they can do about it.  When it comes to family you can not only cut them off association-wise you can deliberately disinherit them and refuse to allow them to see you or members of your direct family.  When it comes to businesses you can blackball them and all their employees.  All of this -- every bit of it -- is legal.

But you won't do it, will you?

Why haven't you done it?

Getting screwed and even having family members literally screwed dead during the last four years isn't enough reason to do it?

Well then I come back to an old saying I've used repeatedly since starting this column more than 17 years ago:

The only difference between rape and sex is consent.  By your deliberate and pointed lack of action to take both peaceful and lawful means to isolate and eschew every single cocksucker who was and IS TODAY involved in this shit we know neither you or your loved ones were or are being raped whether financially or otherwise -- your and their enjoyment may have been and is today perverse as all Hell, but consent you both did and still do so until that changes as evidenced by your actions SIT DOWN AND SHUT THE FUCK UP.

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Oh why am I not surprised?

Additional lab and animal research presented in both papers revealed erythritol and xylitol may cause blood platelets to clot more readily. Clots can break off and travel to the heart, triggering a heart attack, or to the brain, triggering a stroke.

This is much like seed oils: You can't consume any material amount of them eating the plant, simply because there's almost none there.

But then comes along our alleged "Food Safety" organization the FDA and labels unlimited use of these substances "generally recognized as safe."

Without any long-term evidence because, well, it takes a long time to find long-term evidence, does it not?

Oh, if you buy stevia "blends" they typically have erythritol in them which is another close analog to xylitol!

Where is xylitol, in my opinion, very useful and has no appreciable risk?  In toothpaste.  Why?  Because you don't eat toothpaste, but the bad bacteria that cause decay and gum disease (Streptococcus mutans) will eat it thinking its sugar but they can't metabolize it, and thus it is an effective poison to said bacteria, which is good since it selectively kills those bacterial but doesn't tamper with the rest of the mouth's biome.  These days I make my own out of coconut oil (for binding), xylitol, baking soda and some cinnamon oil (for taste) as this way I don't have any other crap in it that I don't want.  It works perfectly well to clean my teeth and is literally dirt-cheap since, of course, you only use a little bit at a time (a tiny Rubbermaid container about half-full which takes me less than 5 minutes to mix up lasts a month or more.)

Just get the damned carbs and seed oils out of your diet.  Do it for a while and you'll find that most things with sugar in them are too sweet and no longer taste good.  Its an addiction and trying to play chemical substitute is asking for trouble.

If there's one that I'm willing to risk its stevia in pure form and only in tiny amounts.  Its not suitable for cooking or baking (at all; all the concoctions that claim they are blend in sugar alcohols which are manifestly unsafe) but if you want something in your coffee it's arguably the best of the alternatives to actual carbohydrate.  There is some evidence it is not entirely benign but then again this is true for most plant extracts in sufficient volume (witness plant-based oils) as since a plant cannot evade or fight off a predator being poisonous in some degree is one of the few defensive mechanisms available.

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2024-06-13 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Foreign Policy , 273 references
[Comments enabled]  

Am I surprised he was convicted of all charges in buying a gun while addicted to a controlled substance?

A bit.  But that was, in fact the only rational outcome given the law.

Is the law wrong or even unconstitutional?  Perhaps in nuance but not entirely.  Said nuance is going to be tested in that the USSC is hearing a challenge to it specific to those who use marijuana.  I've long-warned people with medical marijuana cards not go to buy a gun as lying on the 4473, which you have to do in order to buy a gun if you have a medical marijuana card, is begging to get convicted of a felony and felony convictions are not a joke; they will upend your life with consequences that can be permanent in terms of slamming doors both personally and professionally you cannot unlock.  To do so because you like to get stoned is stupid.

I disagree with that law in the broad sense but not necessarily in the narrow one.  Specifically, some drugs are known to produce psychosis on a regular basis and most hard drugs fall into this category, either when being used or when under withdrawal.  Does the State have a legitimate and constitutional interest in restricting gun purchases by someone who is deliberately consuming a substance known to produce psychosis?  That's a good point of debate and the answer is not clear, but just as the State can arrest you if you walk around the street at 0300 with no clothes on brandishing a shotgun before you shoot someone as a result of your demonstrated and clearly-dangerous altered mental state it is not much of a stretch to do so in this sort of instance on a generalized basis.

(BTW if you claim "no they don't" based on the 2nd Amendment then are you at least consistent enough to also apply that same principle to every crazy tranny who believes that flashing your kid with his dick is free speech?)

Further in this specific case the facts were clear and beyond a reasonable doubt.  Thus the conviction.  While its possible for Hunter to draw a huge prison sentence that I do not expect but the long history of serious drug abuse, including unindicted felony conduct such as the crack pipe in the rental car, is an aggravating factor.  That he is allegedly sober now is a mitigating factor.  How's that all play out?  I don't know, but in any event three felonies will be on the record and I do not believe the law in this case allows judgement to be suspended, so it would appear that absent a successful appeal (which is unlikely) said record is going to be present and permanent.

The more-serious issue is the compromise of national security and active interference by multiple people in our government to prevent it from being brought to light and stopped, including by one Mr. Clapper and dozens of others.  Clapper, in particular, has been publicly unrepentant with regard to the false claim that the laptop was "Russian Disinformation" when it is now admitted by the government itself that in fact it was all true.  The open tax case Hunter still must face, including felony-level charges, looks to be rather damning as well in that multiple LLCs were set up with no legitimate business purpose and never billed a single dollar to a single actual functional customer, being used as nothing more than money conduits to hide the source and distribution of funds.  This sort of activity is hard proof of foreknowledge of one's criminal intent as said structures have to be set up in advance.

These very same so-called "intelligence people" that claimed the laptop was "Russian disinformation" have repeatedly refused to do anything about the blatantly-obvious construction of multi-layer money conduits that fed multiple members of Biden's family with well-documented foreign funds.  It is not illegal to make money on foreign activity but it is illegal to sell influence or otherwise corrupt our government via foreign sources.

But while this is an insanely-fertile political football field the real backstory is likely far worse than anyone is admitting in that there is plenty of reason to believe this is a bipartisan problem and permeates all of government, both formally and in the contracting and thus private side of the economy.  Why do I say this?  Because if it wasn't then the "clean" side of the aisle would be out literally hanging (after trial and conviction, of course) people for what amounts to sedition or even, in some cases, perhaps actual treason.

That this is not happening, when the fact that Hunter and his pals certainly appear to have been peddling influence and it is a documented fact that the Bidens had setup complex corporate structures in advance, is extremely strong evidence that in point of fact there are no clean hands among our politicians sufficient to override the political party interests in continuing to sell out America.

THAT is the lesson we should take from this and the question then becomes "are we willing to put up with it"?

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