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2022-01-25 13:30 by Karl Denninger
in Flash , 383 references
[Comments enabled]  

Would you believe a tobacco company that told you smoking was safe?  They did, you know -- for decades.

Now consider whether you'll believe a pharma company that tells you their products are safe.  When every one of them has all of the data from their "trials" held by them, them only, and their employees all "vouch" that its accurate.

Think on that for a bit.

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2022-01-25 12:15 by Karl Denninger
in Flash , 468 references
[Comments enabled]  

They just withdrew the ETS.

It's over in that regard.  That will cause dismissal of the underlying case.


PS: Yes, they are still attempting to do a "regular rule."  It will fail under review, particularly with the negative effectiveness now on display plus mutation.  Under scrutiny this sort of rule simply doesn't stand up and they know it.

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2022-01-25 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 832 references
[Comments enabled]  

I hate being right.


But this time you are going to hate it if I'm right, especially if you got jabbed.

I predicted when the jabfest started that evasion was extremely likely and VEI (Vaccine Enhanced Infection), whether through OAS, ADE or some related mechanism was so likely that I expected it; not "more likely than not", but "I wouldn't take the bet the other way even with a decent odds multiplier."

By the time Delta came through it looked like we had a lot of fading of effectiveness -- enough that for non-high risk people the math no longer worked, because the jabs were not protective enough to counterbalance the risk from the side effects -- but not VEI.

But there's a reason we usually need five years to qualify a jab, and this sort of risk is part of it.  Viral mutation is a constant thing and it takes time to know whether the pattern suggests trouble.  If it does you stop during the trials until you sort it out, because if you don't you screw a huge number of people, likely permanently, instead of a few volunteers.

Unfortunately Omicron showed up.  It has a mutational pattern that does not make sense as a natural event, which instantly raised my eyebrows as its closest ancestors were seen nearly two years prior.  But the real problem wasn't there -- it was that the data almost immediately showed negative effectiveness in those who were jabbed.  That is being jabbed made it more likely that you'd get infected rather than less.

The original data was quite thin but it quickly got fleshed out -- in Denmark and Israel, to name two places to start.  It has since shown the same pattern everywhere else that has high jab rates.

If you think about that for a minute it has a number of implications and all of them are nasty.  VEI in any form can lead to wildly-elevated rates of severe disease and death because any mechanism that improves infectivity likely also increases the viral load (and damage) before the immune system can clear the infection.  Thus if you find negative efficiency you ****ed up and must instantly stop any inoculation process as it is a near certainty you are doing severe harm.

This same negative impact has not been seen in people who were previously infected; while Omicron does indeed appear to get through prior infection immunity in some people prior infection remains partially protective against Omicron and significantly attenuates the virus, unlike vaccination.  In other words if you had Covid and did not get jabbed while Omicron may well "get" you you're likely to not even recognize it as anything different than a cold.

Fortunately Omicron is much less replication-competent in the lungs on a base level, while still being very replication competent in the nose and other parts of the upper respiratory tract and, on the data, it appears to be much more-transmissible than prior variants as well, which is why it has out-competed Delta within the space of weeks.  Specifically it appears that the wild variation seen with earlier strains, where most people weren't contagious at all while a few were wildly so disappeared: If you get Omicron you're contagious for the first couple of days to the point that anyone susceptible who gets near you is likely to get hit.  It's not measles -- but it thinks it is.

This elimination of the crazy, random variation in communicability on a per-person basis also exposed the insanity of "masks" as a countermeasure.  They never worked but you might think they did because the person who got Covid was one of the "very low spread" folks, thus they didn't give it to you!  Voila -- masks work.  Uh, actually they don't and now since Omicron doesn't behave that way you wear one, the other person wears one and you get hosed anyway.  Thanks for playing; told you they were worthless among the general public.  The response?  Let's send everyone N95s!  Yeah, they work great (NOT!) in the general public who doesn't understand the rules and couldn't follow them anyway given the various constraints, but heh, we gotta do something rather than simply admit we lied, masks were useless, virus will virus and now the virus has proved it to everyone just like influenza did in 1918.

There is some dispute over exactly how much less harm Omicron does in the lungs but its not a small difference -- it's a huge one and that's very, very good news.  This is probably the luckiest draw (assuming it wasn't engineered this way, and it might have been) we've had to date with this virus because if it hadn't been anyone vaccinated would have been at wildly increased risk of death irrespective of whether they had Covid before or not.

In other words we dodged a serious bullet here that could have easily led to a Philippine Dengue-style disaster -- except instead of a few kids getting killed we could have easily lost five percent or more of all vaccinees -- that's at least ten million Americans alone and unlike the "blame the virus for everything" fest the first two years these really would have all been virus-caused and wildly enhanced by our jabfest.

Unfortunately with the wild potentiation of infectiveness by the jabs and that Omicron has outcompeted Delta based on what we know to date means there the balance of harms is not currently known.  We may well take a very significant hit death-wise from this anyway among vaccinees simply because of wildly potentiating the virus in those people and if the negative effectiveness multiplier overwhelms the less-damaging-to-lungs aspect it's going to whack people in size and those who got jabbed are statistically at higher rather than lower risk -- and quite-possibly by a lot.

At present we do not know.

There is pre-existing evidence (all the way back to the fall, before Omicron) that being jabbed may inhibit induction of natural immunity if you get the virus after you take the shots.  Whether that's temporary or permanent we have no idea but it showed up in the data, as I pointed out, both here and in the UK by the summer months.  That should have instantly stopped the jab-fest but of course that would have required people admitting they advocated for (and even tried to mandate or did mandate) a stupid thing.  Instead, in the US, they stopped reporting the data and hid what was becoming obvious.  If the negative efficacy of the jabs against Omicron includes the same suppression of natural immunity that appears to be in the data for other strains, which we will not know for several months, those who got jabbed will be able to get continually reinfected with Omicron until the cumulative damage results in a severe or fatal case.  If it happens this will be insanely ugly and effectively prevent Omicron from fading off with the circular firing squad repetitive victims being almost-exclusively comprised of vaccinees.

At present we do not know and we can't know if that suppression is in play with Omicron for several more months.

Its also possible the next mutational twist may restore some of the missing Omicron virulence in the lungs.  I will note that this is not likely simply on the basic principles of entropy but our continued jabbing is putting a massive finger on the scale.  If it happens and, as Israel has shown the 3rd jab is nearly worthless against Omicron then even a tiny increase in lung virulence could easily kill a million or more vaccinated Americans and again, given the negative effectiveness the most-seriously screwed would be those who took the jabs.


Note that the Federal Government has just pulled the EUAs for monoclonals.  These are drugs that are, effectively, the "final product in the body" of being jabbed.  They know damn well what the risk is -- not just that the drugs are worthless against Omicron but could end up boosting the infection, making it worse.  Since these drugs are, basically, the product of the jabs the obvious risk that the same thing has or will happen with the jabs either with Omicron or what may evolve from it should be clear to anyone with an IQ greater than their shoe size.

At present we do not know.

Its possible that the negative effectiveness of the jabs will wear off.  That would be excellent but it will only wear off if people stop taking jabs.  If you keep trying to play for another month or two of "protection" that is followed by six months of enhanced infectivity you are eventually going to lose on that dice roll and get screwed.  Of course all the pharma CEOs (who's primary purpose in life is to make money) plus the government agencies (who's primary purpose in life at this point is to keep you from hanging them for conning you into doing something stupid) are telling you to play for that extra couple of months.

At present we do not know and there is no way to find out for an extended period of time.

Anyone who tells you they know any, say much less all of these things and thus can compute this out and make a recommendation based on a reasoned evaluation is lying.  The first of these conditions is bad enough and over time we will learn more about it, but by then Omicron will likely be gone, having infected damn near everyone.

Omicron and the vaccine negative effectiveness against it, which is now in full evidence, is a warning.  A warning that included a wildly lucky draw from the evolutionary deck in that materially less virulence in the lungs doesn't provide much in the way of evolutionary advantage, never mind that the curious absence of visible precursors in public data, even though everyone has been looking for the last two years, strong suggests that it wasn't an evolutionary accident at all in the first place.

Whether the risk bucket for those who can get screwed will shrink to any material degree with time is not known.  Only time with no more jabs will answer that question.  Since coronaviruses have animal reservoirs the odds of this virus entirely disappearing approach zero.

We can't go back and un-jab those who did it.  If what happened turns out to be a permanent enhancement in infective risk and the short straw comes up in evolution there's nothing anyone can do about it now.  This could easily prove, as I warned might happen, to be the most-stupid public-health set of actions and worst public-health disaster in human history.

You have to be insane to deliberately expand that risk pool given the warning signal we have on the table today until all of the above questions can be answered with certainty, and there is just no way to do that other than time which we damn well should have taken in the first place.


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2022-01-24 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Other Voices , 571 references
[Comments enabled]  

From the irreverent Ishmael it comes....


I am often wrong.  Sometimes I am very, very, very wrong.  Because I’m a truth seeker, it’s important to admit when I’m wrong. In fact, I hope I am so wrong on this my words are stickied so posters can mock me for eternity.  I’ll gladly take the L on this one.   But enough about how humble I am, on to what I’m right about today…

The coof **** ain’t over.  The enemy is regrouping and launching a new assault.  

We are in a war of pure bloods vs. Karens.  Anyone who respects bodily autonomy and opposes mandates is on the side of the pure bloods, regardless of their vax status.

Winning a war requires victory conditions and milestones for progress.   Stakes must be concretely laid out, otherwise why fight?  A line in the sand must be clearly defined and enforced.  Once it is crossed, join the battle. Decide in advance what actions you are willing (or not) to take.  These are your boundaries.  There is a lull in the fighting right now, take time to relax and review your personal criteria, you’ll need it soon. 

Logistics and tactics are battle actions taken to advance victory conditions. According to  Merriam-Webster online dictionary:

  • Logistics are the things that must be done to plan and organize a complicated activity or event that involves many people

  • Tactics: the art or skill of employing available means to accomplish an end

The war, Operation Gravy Train, wages on.  The Karens are currently winning.  It won’t be over until one of three things happen: Either this particular phrase in the PREP Act is repealed:

“...from COVID–19, or the transmission of SARS–CoV–2 or a virus mutating therefrom.”

Or the gravy train runs out of gravy, or pure bloods hang their enemies from overpasses.

Even in clown world, money runs out. So far in 2022, CMS accounts for a third of all Federal spending.  When other programs need funding, guess where the money comes from?

The collapse of the sick care system is a foregone conclusion.  Pure bloods and Karens will both lose because it won’t be a controlled demolition. Instead it will be a chaotic and idiotic typical government cluster****.  The bodycount will be impressive and depressing.

There are some genuine wins lately. The recent Supreme Court ruling upheld the OSHA stay.  They kept the CMS mandate, though.  Another court stayed the Federal contractor mandate.  These are great milestone along the path towards the victory condition of NORMAL LIFE.  

Incidentally the lawsuits were one of the first successful tactics from pure blood generals.  Finally, they rode onto the battlefield!

Some countries, like the UK, announced they are repealing vaxports. If the crisis was really past, they would be repealed effective immediately, not at some future date.  This is that fat **** Boris Johnson’s payment for getting caught thowing garden parties during lockdowns.  

Something similar happened last May in the US when Rand Paull called Fauci out on some of his mask bull****.  Mask mandates were lifted overnight because science! had changed.  Two months later, tard rags were back cuz science! changed again.  The Karens redeployed their tactic of fear porn and sheeple bought it.

The UK’s vaxport can return on a whim because the population is unarmed and unwilling to decorate London Bridge with bodies on spikes.

Another fight is mandates for truckers crossing the Canadian/US border.  Expect more supply chain woes and lulz. 

Brandon recently announced the next logistics in Operation Gravy Train:

  • Some entity is providing N95 masks and tests to Americans.  

  • A new medical insurance requirement to pay for eight tests per person per month.  96 tests per person per year.

Where in the every loving **** is the money coming from?  Oh, right, a third of the Federal budget has been spent on CMS. Perhaps some of that went to this insanity.

The tests supply fear porn and justify Karen’s next attack.  The masks are the tactics for that attack, Operation It’s Science!

Omicron is highly contagious and unreliable tests generate huge case numbers.  Refusing to treat COVID early and vaccine side effects supply bodies for hospitals.  Both of these are essential ingredients in fear porn.  

The CDC is redefining what “vaccinated” means as well as disingenuously comparing vaxxed vs. unvaxed death. By counting all covid deaths from early 2020 until the tard shot was available as unvaccinated deaths,  they provide justification for vaxports.

With this backdrop, it’s time to begin Operation It’s Science!

Once the N95s are delivered, expect to hear more cries of, “Cloth masks don’t work, you must wear an N95!”  This statement is one of the most insidious of the war and shall be used against you.   

Let’s walk through how a battle in Operation It’s Science! works.  Keep an eye out for it so you will launch your own counter attack and shut this bull**** down.  

Smug, self righteous Karen waddles up to the podium at a school board meeting, types out an impassioned email at work, or condescendingly pontificates in your general direction at the store.  Twitter bot armies are being programmed to spam every thread imaginable. The words in all cases are similar.  

Karen:  Blah blah blah contagious/hospital/dead blah blah. We now know that cloth masks are not enough to stop COVID-19.  We all want to get back to normal. Only N95s or better will stop the virus.  They are our only hope.  Brandon made them available, there’s no excuse, anti-vaxxers!  Our children deserve a normal life, which we can only achieve if everyone wears their free N95.  It’s only for a little bit until Moronic is behind us, do you part to protect yourself and others.

This is such a brilliantly evil and decisive tactic that deserves exploration before explaining why your initial reaction to it is the wrong one.

It’s brilliant because the core thesis that N95s provide protection against viruses is true and accurate.  Tickerguy has been saying this for two years.  We’ve all said it at one time or another. Physics has not changed in the past five minutes. It was true in January 2020, it’s still true today, and will continue to be true until the heat death of the universe.

You can’t defeat the enemy without understanding their battle plan, so here is a phrase by phrase analysis of Operation It’s Science!:

“Blah blah blah contagious/hospital/dead blah blah.” – a reminder of the stakes.  Karen knows them and wants to win the war.  That it’s mostly lies doesn’t matter, stating concrete stakes does.

“We now know”- a bit of false modesty meant to draw the audience in.  The speaker has new science! information and is not so inflexible they can’t change their minds, unlike those anti-vaxxers.

“that cloth masks are not enough to stop COVID-19.” – the trap is laid here.  This statement is 100% accurate and is a direct quote of what the pure bloods have been saying for two years.

“We all want to get back to normal.”--this is stating what YOU want, not what they want.  This is a manipulative appeal to everyone listening.  If you disagree with any part of what they say, you are the one who doesn’t want to go back to normal.

“Only N95s or better will stop the virus.” – This is the delicious chocolate truffle bait in the center of the trap.  Don’t take it.

Note your first reaction. Analyze and contemplate it now during an exercise so you are prepared when you encounter it in real life. Do NOT react the way your brain is screaming for you to.  If you do, you are guaranteed to lose.  

“They are our only hope.” – This casts the pure bloods as the villains because they disagree with any part of Karen’s statement.

“Brandon made them available, there’s no excuse, anti-vaxxers!” – Another mix of truth and villainizing.  Don’t fall for this one either.

“Our children deserve a normal life,” –more appeal to what YOU want. Note how Karen reinforces pure bloods are the villain if they don’t go along with the plan.  These Karen ****s hate your kids.

“which we can only achieve if everyone wears their free N95.”--Karen states their victory condition.  

“It’s only for a little bit until Moronic is behind us”-- Karen pretends to be reasonable and altruistic, further contrasting how different they are from the selfish, evil pure bloods.  They’re lying.

“do your part to protect yourself” – more bait because this statement is true.  N95s do protect the wearer.  Don’t touch this one either.

“and others.”--Karen ends with bait disguised as more altruism.  It’s bait because it gives a false statement to latch on to.  N95s do not protect anyone other than the wearer.  It looks like the world’s best chocolate bacon ice cream fresh bread treat.  It’s not, it’s poison.  Waste time refuting this and at best everyone tunes you out, at worst listeners think you’re a pedantic *******.  Either way, you lose.  Besides, why do you hate kids and want to kill grandma?

Most people’s initial reaction when confronted with such an avalanche of bull**** is defense.  Arguing parts of the statement is defending.  Stammering, “But that’s not what I meant”, or “You’re misinterpreting what I said earlier” is defending.  No one listened for the past two years, they sure as **** won’t listen now, especially since Karen just said they same thing you’ve said before!

The next defense is the bodily autonomy argument.  That hasn’t worked yet and it won’t work here either. 

Ok, what about facts and figures?  Another loser.  Folks, you’ve been presenting Karens facts and figures for two ****ing years and not a single one has helped.  No, rephrasing it nicely won’t make a difference this time.

What should pure bloods do then?

Attack or you lose.  Operation It’s Science! is hard to win because Karen finally told the truth.  So assume you’ve already lost.  Nothing fights harder or more viciously than a dying, injured animal.  You are that animal. Make a plan now and when the time comes execute it with gusto.

Don’t wear the N95 unless you’re mixing epoxy or have another actual need.   Assume the rules don’t apply to you and most of the time they really won’t.  That’s easy enough. 

If you are inclined, burn the ****ing thing right in front of them.  

But here is the crux of defeating Operation It’s Science!  In this battle, you can’t attack the substance of the argument, you must attack the person. Shame them into shutting up and going away.  Here are a few suggestions and why they work.

  • Laugh derisively.  Behind every Karen’s control freak nature is someone so mentally fragile that laughing at them ruins their day.  You win when they lose their **** and forget all about masks.

  • Insults.  These will need to be translated into work-speak if the directive comes from HR.

    •  “Thank God masks are still a thing.  I was afraid I’d have to stare at your ugly face again.”

    • “Will you demo how to wear a mask over your third chin?”

    • “When was the last time you washed that thing?  Gross!”

Insults are effective because so far, Karen has met very little resistance.  Insults about how fat and ugly a woman is are pure gold. Insulting a man’s intelligence is another sure win.  They signal that you are done putting up with their crap. 

If you have decided masks are your line in the sand, make your plans now before you meet Karen on the battlefield.  Yes, this fight will be uncomfortable and unprofessional.  That’s why you create tactics and countermeasures now instead of falling right into their trap!

Or decide being mean isn’t who you are and enjoy suffocating behind that mask your tax dollars paid for.

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2022-01-23 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 873 references
[Comments enabled]  

The BMJ, a very reputable medical journal, makes the following point:

Pfizer’s pivotal covid vaccine trial was funded by the company and designed, run, analysed, and authored by Pfizer employees. The company and the contract research organisations that carried out the trial hold all the data.17 And Pfizer has indicated that it will not begin entertaining requests for trial data until May 2025, 24 months after the primary study completion date, which is listed on as 15 May 2023 (NCT04368728).

The lack of access to data is consistent across vaccine manufacturers.16 Moderna says data “may be available … with publication of the final study results in 2022.”18 Datasets will be available “upon request and subject to review once the trial is complete,” which has an estimated primary completion date of 27 October 2022 (NCT04470427).

As of 31 December 2021, AstraZeneca may be ready to entertain requests for data from several of its large phase III trials.19 But actually obtaining data could be slow going. As its website explains, “timelines vary per request and can take up to a year upon full submission of the request.”20

Underlying data for covid-19 therapeutics are similarly hard to find. Published reports of Regeneron’s phase III trial of its monoclonal antibody therapy REGEN-COV flatly state that participant level data will not be made available to others.21 Should the drug be approved (and not just emergency authorised), sharing “will be considered.” For remdesivir, the US National Institutes of Health, which funded the trial, created a new portal to share data (, but the dataset on offer is limited. An accompanying document explains: “The longitudinal data set only contains a small subset of the protocol and statistical analysis plan objectives.”

This issue is not new.

The "last time around" the same crap happened with Tamiflu which we now consider to be basically worthless.  It sure made people a hell of a lot of money, however -- both the drug manufacturers and all the medical people who charged for the drug, the mark-up on the drug, and of course to administer it.

This is not limited to pandemics.  Vioxx is a screaming example and cost 60,000 dead people before we put a stop to it -- five years later.  If that happens this time, and it might, it will be millions of dead people in the US alone.

Never mind that the statistical trickery with the so-called "vaccines" (which are nothing of the sort) is out in the open.  Calling someone who gets Covid-19 after being jabbed, but before the period of full protection kicks in "unvaccinated" deliberately falsely stuffs any and all increases in susceptibility to infection during that period into the "unjabbed" bucket and thus is active fraud in that it is an attempt to convince you do something that is knowingly dangerous under false pretenses.

Data honesty is important and not hard to achieve.  In fact we can make it law and shove it down manufacturer's throats, especially during declared emergencies where people are being coerced either directly or via a climate of intentionally-inculcated fear.

During such a time the most important element is whether said fear and the claimed act to assuage it is justified.  You damned well should be forced to prove it, and thus this is what we should demand.

Specifically, when it comes to active outbreaks, whether pandemics or not, we should demand:

  • Anyone who uses an intervention counts as having done so at the moment they do.  If the "authorities" recommend or even force an intervention that makes your situation personally worse before it gets better it is an act of fraud for which they should be hung out to dry and held criminally and civilly to account if concealed.  That's exactly what we've been doing for the last year and it must stop now with everything being restated to reflect this.

    In short if you take a jab you are "vaccinated" as of the date of the first jab.  If a recommendation is made to do that during an active outbreak then the risk of it increasing your susceptibility during that outbreak is properly charged to the decision to take it or not.

  • We must insist that de-identified but with all co-morbid factors maintained data is reported for all events with each mitigation recommended or enforced counted accurately.  This one's simple; you produce a daily data dump for everyone who seeks treatment or tests positive for "X" and accurately account for whatever known co-morbid factors exist and any mitigations they took irrespective of when.

So for Covid-19 the correct data set is as follows for each person who "tests positive" and again for each person admitted to a hospital:

Demographics: Age, sex, national origin.

Comorbid factorsBMI, diabetes, coronary heart disease, chronic lung disease, cancer, high blood pressure (and maybe a couple more.)

JabbedIf ever jabbed the answer is "yes", no matter whether five minutes earlier or six months earlier.  You cannot count someone as "partially vaccinated" if they get infected before their second shot was due.  The definitions are:  1. Unvaccinated: No shots  2. Vaccinated: One or more shots on schedule prior to infection and 3. Partially vaccinated: The second shot was not taken deliberately prior to infection when it should have been taken

Treatment protocolsWhere known, all drugs used are listed (e.g. Run-death-is-near in a hospital, etc.)  For an ambulatory case this will likely be incomplete and unable to be verified but for hospitalization every thing they did is documented so it must all be listed.  No exceptions.

Worst state(1) Home care (recovered), (2) Admitted (recovered), (3) ICU (recovered), (4) Ventilated (recovered) and (5) DEAD.

This must be released daily once an outcome has been determined.  Remove the identifying information and the rest is published.

Had we done this we would have rapidly identified things that people claimed to have done at home and which appeared to work.  Maybe they do and maybe they don't since there's no audit on home treatments that people say they used.

But all of the things that did and didn't work in hospitals, along with the comorbid factors to evaluate them, would have been laid on the table within weeks and, I'll bet, a huge percentage of those who died would not have, never mind the institutions (like one here) that has managed to slaughter over 90% of Covid admissions from June to the end of 2021 without a peep being issued by anyone, like our Governor or Mayor, for example, about what is obviously a ridiculously bad record and which should have long ago drawn a crap-ton of scrutiny on their protocol(s) being used or not.

This deliberate misinformation by our government and health care actors was not a mistake.

It was a highly profitable enterprise and thus can reasonably be called murder-for-hire.

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