The Technical Briefing from England came out today (again a week late). https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk....
I did my own calculations and it seems very clear that if the government wanted to give people better advice, they would say "if you're over 50, stop, and be under 50." Unfortunately, England only breaks it down into over 50 and under 50 and not better age stratifications. "Under 50" would include people in their 20s and "Over 50" would include people in their 70s and 80s. But this is still pretty interesting data out of 200,000+ cases.
What I don't know though is how the "emergency care visits" number and the "emergency care resulting in overnight" number relate. I assume that the "emergency care visits" number is inclusive of the "overnight" number, but I don't know. I also don't understand the "specimen inclusive" vs "specimen not inclusive" split. But I keep my own spreadsheet based on the "inclusive" number since it's higher, just to be conservative.
By my calculations: Over 50 unvaxxed has a 28.4% emergency room visit and an 18.8% overnight visit (again, I assume that means a total of 28.4% emergency room visit and not 47.2%). The data on over 50 unvaxxed is not too significant because there are only 2,337 Over 50 unvaxxed cases since February.
But Under 50 unvaxxed is only 4.9% emergency room and 1.4% overnight, resulting in a CFR of 0.02%.
There's no appreciable difference between 1 and 2 doses, which is consistent with the Pfizer data (Pfizer counted days 1-14 in the 1 dose efficacy, which artificially lowered the 1 dose efficacy, but their data shows that days 14 - 21 (they dosed number 2 on day 21) is the same as days 21+).
Also not a huge difference in the Under 50 vaxxed vs. unvaxxed. Under 50 1 or 2 dose CFR is 0.02% or less (less for the 1 dose). Under 50 unvaxxed CFR is 0.02%. So same death rate.
Under 50 1 or 2 dose hospital visit is 3.6% 1 dose, 3.4% 2 dose but 4.9% for the unvaxxed. Overnight stay is 0.9% 1 dose, same for 2 dose, and 1.4% unvaxxed.
So there is a moderate "relative risk reduction" for the under 50s between unvaxxed and dosed, but insignificant "absolute risk reduction." But really no difference between 1 and 2 doses.
Interestingly, there are WAY more Over 50 breakthrough cases than unvaccinated cases. 18,873 (of those, 13,427 are 2 dose) vaccinated vs. 2,337 unvaccinated.
In Under 50 it's the other way around: 63,990 breakthrough cases vs. 119,063 unvaccinated.
Now with 32-percent more trash-talk.