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2024-11-30 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in 47 , 654 references
[Comments enabled]  

This is the biggest cockgobbling piece of shit "journalism" I've read in ages and it appears the market is buying it for the time being.

Bessent acknowledged that the federal government's mandatory spending – particularly the Social Security and Medicare entitlement programs – is a major driver of budget deficits. However, he said he thinks it's more realistic for the incoming Trump administration to focus on curbing discretionary spending, a much smaller portion of the overall federal budget, to create momentum for a future administration to take on entitlement reform.

First, Social Security is not the problem.  Social Security is currently running a modest cash-based deficit, but the key word here is "modest."  Lifting the FICA tax by, say, 1%, lifting the cap by 10% or so or some combination would likely balance it today and, in the next 10 or 20 years die offs from Boomers will start to reduce the outlays.  Bessent knows this because he can read the MTS so assuming he's not deliberately blind he's lying and thus it is my sincere hope that he took six clotshots and gets his just reward for doing so along with his entire family.

I'd usually be a bit more-kind but not this time, and here's why:

"These entitlements are massive. I think the next four years isn't the time to deal with them, that we've got to deal with the discretionary portion of the budget and get that under control. But I think the signal – I always say, crawl, walk, run – we've got to crawl, maybe walk our way to get the current deficits under control, then the next step is for a future administration to have the confidence to be able to deal with entitlements," Bessent said.

The entire problem is in CMS.

CMS is less than 20% funded by tax receipts and as a result you'd have to multiply the current Medicare tax by FIVE in order to bring it into fiscal balance.  That is clearly not going to happen as it would be politically impossible.

But the problem isn't that the system was originally designed out of balance as when it was designed medical care was about 3-4% of the economy; it is that it has been turned into a monstrous scam across the board, all of it wildly illegal through price-fixing and other games and since the laws being violated are felonies and have been on the books for over 100 years.  The validity of this law in application to the medical, health insurance and pharmaceutical industries has been proved up at the Supreme Court more than forty years ago thus it is trivial to fix it -- indict people in size starting with doctors, hospital administrators, drug company and insurance executives.  One of the games used by states to fuck the Federal Government and accelerate the deficit is to assess fees on Medicaid providers, thus driving up the total and funds granted to said state, then they rebate the "assessment" it back to who they took it from.  This sort of shit is wild-eyed accounting fraud and yet it is utterly commonplace.  So is the crazy cost-shift done by Biden during the last year to prevent a over 100% price-spike in Medicare Part D, all occasioned by "deciding" to pay for insanely expensive and dubiously-safe-and-wildly-permanent things that force people into lifetime dependence like Ozempic.

Further, the direct inflationary impact of this deficit spending cannot be avoided due to the destruction of trade sequestration that will not come back in the short term (caused by the Ukraine war related sanctions) and is probably gone forever because economies and trade abhor vacuums and alternatives have already been established.  There is little or no reason to believe that privilege we used to have will ever be restored since we've proved we cannot be trusted at our word and thus just like Jimmy Carter permanently ruined the nuclear fuel reprocessing industry via an Executive Order that Reagan rescinded on the first day, yet here we are more than 20 years later with no commercial reprocessing, the trade sequestration must be considered permanently gone as well.  That's a solid $100 billion+ a year, and perhaps two or three times that much, in deficit spending every single year we didn't have to pay for in inflation but now we do and will forevermore have to into the future.

That change, which we did to ourselves, means that every dollar of deficit spending is immediately inflationary to the United States economy.  So if you want to have a 2% inflation rate in the US you must not have more than a real 2% deficit ex productivity on a cash basis, which is not going to happen in real terms when you pay out 200% of last years hospital CMS payments October-over-October and a roughly 57% comparable-month increase across CMS as a whole -- which we just did!

Bessent thinks he can run a "3-3-3" program; 3% fiscal deficits (about $800 billion total, 3% real productivity and 3 million additional barrels of oil production a day.

Problem: Last fiscal year's deficit was $2 trillion and no, you don't have four years to cut it to $800 billion because the inflationary impact of $2 trillion is about 7% annually so to get to 3% real productivity you would need a gross 10% increase.  That has never happened outside of two periods -- after the deflationary crash of 1920/21 and for a time after WWII when the war had blown up almost literally every single production facility in Europe.  There is a zero probability of the US seeing a gross 10% productivity increase and if you want a real 3% productivity increase into a 3% fiscal deficit it has to be 6% in gross terms which is also fantasy-land bullshit.  The actual real productivity expansion in the 2010 decade was a meager 0.72% annually and the modern-era (last ~20ish years) average is about half that 3% figure.  Only the Internet revolution period in the 1990s has posted up anything like a 3% number in modern times.

No, drilling for more oil is not going to lead to conditions similar to the creation of the Internet.

Yes, I understand that so-called "entitlements" are third rail of politics.  But just like politicians always conflate Social Security (which is easy to fix) with Medicare and Medicaid (which isn't, as the grift is in the latter and not the former) only Medicaid is an "entitlement", that is to say WELFARE in that the other two you paid for during your working life.  Further, fixing it does not require refusing to cover what people paid for and while changing what Medicaid is ought to be done, as I've outlined, because you can provide indigent Americans with superior access to health care without it we can fix the problem in CMS immediately by removing the fraud, theft, and other outrageously felonious behavior without refusing to honor the agreement Americans entered into.

You can huff, puff and chin-wag all you want but the facts are what they are.  The entire problem forcing the deficit higher resides in CMS and it is occurring on an exponential basis -- it is not Social Security.  Yes, discretionary spending is also out of control but cutting discretionary spending back (and we must) will not resolve the issue; you must dismantle the medical monopolists and only the threat of hard prison time, which incidentally 15 USC Ch 1 already provides for and thus there are no new laws required, will do the job and it must be done immediately, not over 4 years or worse, into the next term after Trump leaves office.

We are out of time and must deal with this problem now.

The inflationary spike from October is already baked into the cake because that spending has already happened and essentially all of it was in CMS.  Bessent either knows this and is lying or he hasn't read the MTS in which case, given that he wants the Treasury Secretary's job and claims to be competent to take it he should be locked in a paddock with Mr. Hands after having mare scent slathered on his bare asshole.

This is going to blow up in our face come next year and this chucklefuck is proposing to jam the accelerator to the floor while we're already headed for a solid granite wall, making the outcome much worse.

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2024-11-26 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in 47 , 667 references
[Comments enabled]  

Seriously, go fuck yourself and if you won't, Judd, we should do it to you.

Judd said the Trump administration could make a dent in the number of formally deported immigrants "if Congress would pass . . . proper laws."

"If Congress were to pass laws that say you can't have a sanctuary city, which they have the right to pass, if they state that the police must comply with immigration detainers [and] police must comply with federal immigration officers. If Congress would pass laws like that, then yeah, we absolutely could make a huge dent in the number of people that we have in this country illegally," he said.

Oh really?

If Congress would only pass yet another law that nobody will enforce?

Let me say it again nice and slow so your shoe-size IQ (and all those who cheer on such stupidity) can understand:

GO.

FUCK.

YOURSELF.

Or we should all skullfuck YOU, and everyone at FAUX SNOOZE and EVERYONE in Federal Law Enforcement and EVERYONE in the DOJ and EVERYONE in both Trump's last Administration, Biden's and now Trump's new one until and unless they ALL enforce laws on the books since the 1950s that will conclusively end illegal immigration in one hour.

Which law?

8 USC Section 1324.

A section of law that:

  • Provides 10 years in prison for any entity (including persons, corporations, non-profits and similar) that assists, harbors, transports or conceals an illegal immigrant.  Any person incidentally includes state and local government officials (the Supremacy Clause in the Constitution makes clear that no state or local official is exempt from Federal laws) and thus "sanctuary cities and States" are already illegal and any person involved in taking such actions is already a federal felon, including any governor, mayor or State assemblyperson who puts such acts into place or allows same including every employee involved who in any way contributes to the harboring, aiding or abetting illegal immigrants such as police officers, court officials and those running jails who refuse to honor detainers or provide notice to ICE.  By the way this includes all landlords, hotel owners and operators and similar who rent to or provide lodging to said persons.

  • Provides 5 years in prison for any entity employing illegal immigrants.  Yes, entity includes all persons so involved so no it is not a matter of "fines" for companies -- it is 5 years in the slammer for every employee of such a firm who hires or maintains such an employee in a position with either knowledge or with reckless disregard for their status.

  • Provides 20 years in prison for any entity involved in the above if the illegal immigrant commits a crime that involves bodily injury to an American.

  • Provides up to life in prison for any entity involved in the above if the illegal immigrant commits homicide.

And further:

  • Any conveyance used to transport such an illegal immigrant is subject to forfeiture.

  • Any property traced to such a conveyance (that is, any cargo on board same) is also subject to forfeiture.

And further:

  • There is an affirmative DUTY in said statute to educate the public that if you do any of these things whether personally or in your role in a corporation  or other entity you shall go to prison and any conveyance you allow an illegal to be transported by is subject to being seized and forfeited.

This law has been on the books since the 1950s.

ENOUGH OF THIS SHIT AND ENOUGH OF ALL THE FUCKING LIES.  THERE IS NO NEED FOR A SINGLE ADDITIONAL LAW AND THERE IS NO EXCUSE FOR FAILING TO ENFORCE 8 USC 1324 THAT WILL BE ACCEPTED.

EITHER THE GOVERNMENT ENFORCES THE LAW RIGHT HERE AND NOW, NO EXCUSES, OR WE AS CITIZENS SHOULD EXCISE EVERY SINGLE INDIVIDUAL IN OUR GOVERNMENT WHO REFUSES TO DO SO.

FURTHER IF YOU ARE AN EMPLOYER, LANDLORD OR GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL AND DO NOT STOP HARBORING, EMPLOYING AND ASSISTING SAID ILLEGAL ALIENS -- ALL OF THEM -- THEN THE REST OF AMERICA MUST INSIST SAID PERSONS DOING SO ALL GO TO PRISON AND IF THE GOVERNMENT WON'T PROSECUTE AND JAIL THOSE PEOPLE AS IT IS OBLIGATED TO THEN WE MUST MAKE CLEAR THAT WE WILL NOT TOLERATE THAT AND WILL TREAT ANY SUCH GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL AS AN ACCESSORY TO EACH AND EVERY OFFENSE AND HOLD THEM EQUALLY AND PERSONALLY LIABLE.

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2024-11-22 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in 47 , 313 references
[Comments enabled]  

Now we have Dr. Oz and of course RFK "on deck" for CMS and HHS, respectively.

There are many changes that must be made but let me highlight one that must be made on an administrative basis on the first day and then coded into Statute through Congress so it can never be changed in any government-funded medical or health program again by any future adminsitration.

No payment can ever be made on an "incentive" basis except for documented, measurable and quantified success, irrespective of circumstances.

Specifically, what was done during Covid where hospitals were paid for procedures rather than results must be absolutely barred as this perversion almost-certainly led to hundreds of thousands of deaths, specifically by paying hospitals for ICU use, ventilator use, Remdesivir use and finally, a bonus for those who died which is ethically identical to paying someone who commits homicide.

In addition those "incentive payments" were a monstrous budgetary boondoggle while at the same time wildly enriching many hospitals, including the one in my county which cashed in to the tune of millions beyond their ordinary and customary charges for treating persons in those programs.

There is no way to "protect Medicare and Medicaid", as Senator Fetterman says is his condition for supporting Dr. Oz as the head of CMS, other than by collapsing the cost of medical care generally.  It simply cannot be done any other way because roughly four dollars in five spent in that program are not backed by a tax receipt and there no reasonable way to expect that expanding taxation for those programs by a factor of five could be sustained either politically or economically.

I have for more than a decade, and indeed all the way back to when I was running MCSNet in the 1990s, identified that the expansion of CMS as a percentage of GDP, in that the programs were established with the premise of about a 4% overall health care spend in the economy that has now reached 20%, simply cannot continue.

But additional cost-shifting into the private sector, which is rampant in Medicaid and is exploited among Medicare providers, cannot be sustained either.  This is choking the economy and driving uneconomic acts across the board including deficit spending, bubbles in the economy all over the place and inflation that cannot be hidden any longer or sustained.

Fixing that is not (directly) within the purview of either HHS or CMS except as relates to both agency's mandate, under statute generally, to not permit criminal acts of those it contracts with to be ignored.  Specifically, in the context of both Medicare and Medicaid payments made from firms for "compliance" with vaccine and other schedules are, legally, a kickback, explicitly barred under law and such conduct carries felony criminal penalties.  All such acts, including any other act constituting a kickback either form or substance must be prosecuted.

CMS can materially impact cost by, for example, paying bonuses for those people who successfully bring their blood sugar and body mass under control through the use of non-pharmaceutical approaches such as, for example, getting both seed oils and fast carbohydrates out of one's diet.  Objective proof in the form of lack of prescription drug use and documented metabolic results in the form of body mass reduction, glucose control, fasting insulin, hsCRP and blood pressure are all trivially and, with the exception of minor blood draws or finger-sticks for testing able to be shown on a non-intrusive and near-zero-cost basis.

Surprisingly Fox has come out with an article by a physician who echoes much of this.  Where he's wrong is on the statins; the lipid hypothesis has, at this point, been disproved and his adherence to that "religion" is likely why he has insulin resistance problems.  Simply put the problem is systemic inflammation, not cholesterol.  Getting seed oils out of what you eat makes a huge difference -- if you think not pay $200 for a Garmin Instinct that can do overnight HRV and check the impact on HRV yourself when you eat or do not eat them.  Note that it is basically impossible to avoid them in a restaurant so to do this test you must cook at home or be extremely careful if eating out; you can, for example, eat a steak but you cannot have a salad with dressing, virtually any bread or breaded thing or any sort of "butter", fried or grilled anything other than a fatty meat because all restaurants will use these oils rather than tallow, lard or butter for baking and cooking purposes because they're cheaper.  For the huge percentage of people, perhaps everyone, the amount you can consume of these substances without serious negative impact is zero and, incidentally, yes that includes infants and if you really want to freak out look at any bottle of packaged infant formula.  Enfamil and Similac, two common brands by means of example both have listed as their third ingredient seed oils; the amount that an infant, absent their use, would consume and that any mammal has consumed through history other than by our intervention is in fact ZERO.

Further, if drug use is permitted as a means of mitigation then all expense as a consequence of adverse events that have a legitimate risk in the use of said drugs and all costs occasioned by them including the drug itself and all expense due to adverse events or monitoring for same must be directly counted against any such results.  If this was done then statins, for example, would almost-certainly be off the recommendation list because they are a known cause of Type II diabetes and the cost of that, if and when it occurs, is more than the rather-dubious (known at this point) "benefit" from their use.  While punishing a provider for prescribing them is likely unwise if the provider is incented to do whatever works, where "works" is defined objectively both in terms of outcomes AND COST, said providers now have a reason to find and promote that which is cheaper and works rather than simply be paid to "do things."

Many of these changes can -- and must -- be made administratively but they then must also be codified into Statute so that physicians, hospitals and pharmaceutical companies cannot lobby this or a future administration to reverse these rules and screw people for money as occurred in size, and which put into stark relief exactly how prevalent and death-causing it was during Covid.

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2024-11-18 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in 47 , 739 references
[Comments enabled]  

Yeah, fraud.

Not mistake.

Birx said the White House’s messaging surrounding the COVID-19 vaccine did not help matters.

"I think what has confused people is we weren't clear about what COVID vaccines do and don't," she said. "And so now people are questioning, well, what are my childhood vaccines do and don't. And they don't understand that some of the vaccines that their children are getting protect them from both disease and create herd immunity. And some of them that they get are just for their child, like H Flu and pneumovax to prevent their child from getting very serious illness."

No, actually Deborah, you and the rest of so-called "public health" have deliberately and maliciously lied about many of these shots.

What's worse, you not only lied you used those lies to support mandates that have no foundation in law or the principles of public health whatsoever.  And finally, and the reason all of you should hang by the neck until dead (after judgment and conviction, of course) is that those lies in fact put others at increased risk.

A thing is not a vaccine if it fails to induce sterile immunity.  That is, it not only makes you unable to become ill it prevents you from being infected in the first place and by doing so it also prevents you from unwittingly (before you know you're seriously sick) infecting other people.

A non-sterilizing shot or other preparation is not a vaccine because it does not prevent you from infecting other people.  It would at first blush appear to be exactly identical from the standpoint of a man in the choice to wear a condom during sex -- it reduces the risk of transmission of sexual diseases in both directions to and from his penis during the time it is worn and reduces the risk of him impregnating that specific woman during that specific act of sexual intercourse but it does nothing to prevent the woman from becoming pregnant by other than that individual sexual act with that individual man nor does it prevent any sort of transmission of a disease to or from anyone else or at any time and in any orifice other than during the specific time and for the specific act of sex.

Unfortunately a non-sterilizing shot is much worse than a condom, which is neutral in terms of risk to anyone else or at any other timebecause it inevitably makes infecting others with said disease more-likely because if you can get and pass on the infection but do not get sick you have no idea that you are at risk of infecting others.  Since you have no idea you actually have and are capable of passing on the infectious agent you are MORE LIKELY to screw someone else -- up to and including killing them.

Birx knows damn well this is true and her refusal to honestly disclose same with regard to the covid shots meant that many people who were at higher risk were exposed to being killed, and some were killed, by a person who thought they were safe when in fact they were not only infected they were giving the virus to others.

Deborah both personally and deliberately, through multiple appearances in front of the microphone as the "helpful lady doctor", did not correct the record at any time, most-particularly when the shots were being "mandated."  She knew damn well that there was no legal or moral justification for any sort of mandate because, as she has admitted, she knew there was never any evidence the covid shots actually produced "immunity" of any sort; in fact the "trials" were deliberately designed so as not to test that capacity (and if they had been they would have failed said trial, which we now know conclusively.)

This is profoundly evil conduct that is worthy of capital punishment.

But more to the point of the Fox article and your little "conversation" in same is the fact that this fraudulent edifice is used to extort conduct from parents for the purpose of money in the doctor's offices as has been conclusively shown by "vaccine bonus" schedules from insurers, conduct that is both a kickback (and thus arguably illegal under federal and insurance law -- specifically in the context of Medicare and Medicaid 42 USC 1320a-7b(b)) and is absolutely illegal under 15 USC Chapter 1 as it is an attempt to force a tied sale (the shot, which you do not want) to get something you do want (access to a pediatrician for your kid.)  That has been illegal for over 100 years and carries felony criminal penalties -- specifically, 10 years in the slammer for each and every person so-involved, no matter the type or character of their involvement.

Whether that is or is not the cause for the meteoric rise in autism rates is a separate issue.  If that turns out to be true then everyone involved deserves to be summarily executed as the collective harm served up on Americans via this conduct is arguably worse than what the Nazis did during WWII and damn well ought to draw the same response.  But that's a separate discussion; the conduct is a felony on multiple grounds under long-standing federal law even if harmless medically due to its coercive nature and the monetary gains stolen by same.

These mandates must all be dropped and EVERY medical office and insurer who participate in any such "payment" scheme prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law, including not just fines but prison sentences.  Beyond being quite-clearly illegal these acts are utterly indefensible in a nation where access to these shots is essentially universal and, in addition, the type and character of each must be disclosed, those that do not produce sterile immunity or for which that cannot be proved must not be called what they are not ("vaccines") and those which are intended to or do eliminate, in some or all persons, symptoms while not preventing transmission must be fairly disclosed as increasing the risk of you giving a disease unwittingly to others.

I appreciate you coming clean about this, but that you've only done so now rather than in late 2020, even though you knew all of this at the time, certainly looks like little more than attempt to save yourself from a quite-literal risk of prosecution.

Fuck that; into the dock you must go.

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2024-11-15 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in 47 , 757 references
[Comments enabled]  

All three.

House, Senate and Presidency.

There is thus no blocking of agendas.  No bogus impeachments.  No games.

Either tear down the medical monopolists and illegal invader problem -- all of it -- using existing statutory authority in 15 USC Chapter 1 and 8 USC 1324 and do it within the first few months or, by the time the House and Senate midterms start to be contested which is in the spring of 2026 Trump loses both.

The inflation monster is going to roar back on the field.  It matters not if you were responsible or not; if you're in the left seat when the plane crashes its your fault whether you put the water in the fuel or the idiot on the ramp did it.

15 USC Chapter 1 has been litigated to the Supreme Court in the context of medical care and insurance and found valid.  The defenses were attempted and failed.  I've pointed this out for more than two decades now but nobody wants to take it on.  You don't seek fines you indict and imprison doctors, pharmaceutical company executives, hospital CEOs and insurance firm officers, directors and executives.  Every person seeking medical procedure, drug or device must pay the same price for the same thing irrespective of their "insurance" or who is paying the bill, "insurance" companies may not interfere in any way in pricing or otherwise (but may set their own reimbursements after you got the bill) and you must consent whenever it is physically possible for you to do so before you incur the expense.  Read here; its all there.

On illegal immigration 8 USC 1324 is clear: Any entity or person harboring or assisting an illegal alien is subject to 10 or more years in prison.  No fines, no games, you do it you are indicted and go to prison with no exceptions.  I don't care what the excuse is -- its invalid.  Do it and do it now.  You do this and the entire problem is solved immediately because all the employers, landlords and state governments handing out gibs will stop as none of them are going to deal with a 10 year prison sentence and no, State government officials are not exempt from Federal Law.

There is plenty more but these two must be done immediately.  The collapse of pricing -- cost of living -- has to happen.  There is no way to catch up through wages which is irrelevant to anyone on fixed income anyway as the government cannot, and does not, actually index for (as an example) the doubling in food prices that has already happened in Social Security payouts.  Further medical cost is wildly in excess of anything Medicare can receive from taxes and Medicaid is a pure give-away.

The math is clear; real world inflation hasn't been 20% over the last three years and change it has been closer to 50% and in many things you must buy like groceries it has been a clean double.

But let's assume its just 25% -- a few points above the government's official claim.

2% "Fed Inflation" - 2% productivity growth (long-term average reasonable expectation) - 3% real wage increases (that's 5% in "current dollars" given a 2% inflation rate) = 3% per year "catch-up" so you won't for eight years assuming that the real inflation rate is in fact 2%.  If its 3% then the "catch up" time is 50% longer or 12 years.  If the real inflation was not 25% but in fact is 50%, and it is, then you'll either be nearing retirement if you're in your 20s today or dead, and that assumes that over that entire period of time there are no more inflationary bursts from any cause whatsoever.

In other words that's not only not going to happen it is inevitably going to financially destroy Americans in size and lead to a revolt of some sort -- whether peaceful or quite-possibly not, particularly when the cost of borrowing is going to continue to increase for the next couple of decades so if you, as an average American, are "charging it" you're going to financially blow up with absolute certainty long before you catch up.

Either we collapse the cost-of-living and accept what comes from that in the asset markets (and yeah, it will be serious) or in the midterms the Republicans lose both houses and that's the end of the show because the Democrats will not take those steps.  The root of the problem lies in these two places; there are plenty of others to be addressed but if these two are not done the rest doesn't matter.

Incidentally, if you want further evidence of the inflationary impact and how close the impending detonation is, and why it must be taken care of right now and criminal indictments must come in size, right now -- no excuses -- the single-month deficit spending was outrageous in October; last month CMS spending was up over 50% compared with the same month last year.  The internals were even more-ridiculous; benefit payments under the supplemental trust fund were 243% last year's levels -- almost 2-1/2 times and hospital payouts were at 209% last year's figures for the same month.

Last chance folks, and it literally has to begin with no excuses -- and plenty of felony indictments -- on January 20th at 12:01 PM.

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