Is This Tin? Or Are We Headed For A MASSIVE Crash?
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2025-03-20 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 209 references Ignore this thread
Is This Tin? Or Are We Headed For A MASSIVE Crash?
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There are rumors (and now, before publication, it hit "The Street") floating around that "DOGE" has found what they're calling "magical printing computers" within multiple departments that are writing "checks" -- except they're not checks.  They're funds not drawn on anything -- that is, legally it amounts to counterfeiting.

Now this may be complete crap.

You better hope, if you own any sort of asset, that it is.

Why would some entity within the Government do this?

There are several possible reasons.

  • To evade a debt ceiling.  If there's no check, there's no treasury issuance.

  • To evade increasing the deficit. Again, no check, it never hits the MTS.

And so on.

Problem: Since funds today are largely digital there are no counterfeit serial numbers that can be traced and removed from circulation.  If this has happened the entire integrity of the US Government's financing has been destroyed; there is no way to know the full scope of that destruction because of course those funds are in circulation.

However there is a way to resolve this if in fact "unauthorized" emission of dollars has occurred.  Since the transmission of funds was counterfeit claw the transfer back from whoever it went to.  Banks really don't like eating hot checks and will do damn near anything to lay that off on the account holder, so let them do exactly that.  As fraud vitiates everything this is absolutely within the remit of Treasury to do and in fact, under their fiduciary responsibility it is legally required of them.  Oh by the way this obviously goes back years and there is no statute of limitations on fraud that runs until its discovered, so the clock starts now, not when it happened.  Yes, doing so will bankrupt a crap-ton of people -- so what?  They stole the funds and you never gain title to a stolen thing no matter how much time has passed.  Doing this will also end any possibility of the practice in the future because nobody will take a payment from the government for something in the future unless it has a memo line that ties back to Treasury, and they can verify it before they spend it.

The integrity of a monetary system relies on the premise that the issuer has control over the amount of currency in circulation.  The MTS is the means by which this is accounted for (and the DTS, if you want daily amounts.)  Corruption of this, if discovered and proved, has a very high probability of leading to an immediate crisis of confidence and collapse of all asset values domiciled in or operating under said place and system.

The rumors could be complete crap -- and they could also be simply mistakes in that the tieback is there.

But.... there's this, which strongly implies its not, and pre-dates that rumor (and then article):

But usaspending.gov is wrong on the biggest picture, RealClearInvestigations found. 

The total amount of spending across “all agencies,” as recorded at usaspending.gov, appears to be 50% higher than most experts interviewed for this article think it actually was.

Is it actually wrong?  From what I can tell the amount is an overstatement but it doesn't matter because the basic claim is correct.

You better hope that site is in fact wrong -- and that the MTS isn't what's wrong -- because if not your neighbor may soon try to eat you.

For real.

PS: Always remember that anything which appears to not be deterministic (e.g. "will there be a tornado, and if so, where and when?") in fact is.  Its just that you don't have the facts necessary to analyze it accurately.  This article was just forced off the ad-supported side, two years later, as it was declared "unreliable and harmful claims."  The entire reason I put this article over here is that this objection ought to be called "uncomfortable truths" because that's what they in fact are, exactly as are the examples in that article that is now, but not two years ago, considered "unsuitable" for advertising.

So this appears to be, by the way.