No, It's Not Going Away
The Market Ticker - Cancelled - What 'They' Don't Want Published
Login or register to improve your experience
Main Navigation
Sarah's Resources You Should See
Sarah's Blog
Full-Text Search & Archives
Leverage, the book
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions. For investment, legal or other professional advice specific to your situation contact a licensed professional in your jurisdiction.


Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility; author(s) may have positions in any firm or security discussed here, and have no duty to disclose same.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be sent unmodified to lawmakers via print or electronic means or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media, to republish full articles, or for any commercial use (which includes any site where advertising is displayed.)

Submissions or tips on matters of economic or political interest may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must be complete (NOT a "pitch"), include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. Pitch emails missing the above will be silently deleted. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Considering sending spam? Read this first.

2020-04-09 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 783 references Ignore this thread
No, It's Not Going Away *
[Comments enabled]
Category thumbnail

I've tried to warn people of the coming likely disintegration of our health care system.

I've put forward a bill to fix it.  Nobody has cared.  Not one torch, not one pitchfork was to be found.

I suspected that was going to happen when Obamacare was passed.  Those of you who have been here since the crash know that I noted when Obama was elected and started in on Obamacare that it was my view that if I got older, fatter and sicker I would eventually die because the health care required for me to live would disappear -- whether Obama had promised it to me or not.  So would millions of others.  And not one person ever did lift a finger toward that rat bastard or his minions in the House and Senate at the time.  They're still there and he's still a free man.

So in 2011, realizing that there was no way they were going to do the right thing I instead did this:


That took 8 months.

I still look like that.  Well, ok, my hair has more gray in it.

Now to be clear -- I didn't do it for anyone else.  I did it because I knew that if I didn't do it I would end up even fatter, likely diabetic and screwed.  I was never diabetic but I did buy a simple finger-stick meter and some strips, and did my own version of challenging my endocrine system in the privacy of my own home.  What I saw wasn't encouraging.

60lbs and 8 months later the data was still not encouraging, even though I felt a hell of a lot better  Literally everything was better.  Sleep, demeanor, everything.  Even my boner (ok, TMI, I know.)  But a few years later the data tells a different story.  Today I can sit down and choke down an entire big bag of chocolate; almost all sugar.  It's not possible for me to drive my blood sugar way up.  It just doesn't happen.  My fasting glucose is right up the middle where it should be.  I still have the meter and every year or so buy a few strips and see what's up, just to be sure.  I eat low carb, high fat.  There are exceptions, but my primary sustenance is comprised of animal protein and green vegetables.  It works, I'm never hungry, and I enjoy what I eat.  I often eat nothing, literally, before noon.


I'm not hungry.

It's nine years later.  Those who say it doesn't work or you can't stick with it -- you're wrong.  It both works and is delicious.  Oh, and over time your body may heal itself.  I take no prescription drugs.  Literally none.

Now we have Coronavirus.  It's not going away.  There will be no vaccine.  There is evidence (but not proof) that the antibody protection wanes with time and some people don't get much protection at all, despite getting the virus.  None of this is scientifically proved yet, but given the evidence expecting a permanent-immunity vaccine is foolish.  There will almost-certainly not be one.  If the antibody protection wanes then a vaccine is a waste of time and money, and the efforts to produce one will soon be abandoned.

Being obese and diabetic has a high probability of being a death sentence if you get this virus.  You're anywhere from 100 to over 1,000 times more likely to die.  To put perspective on this if you get this virus you have less than a 0.06% chance of death (and probably less than half that; I'm being generous in the direction of mortality in that calculation) if you have none of these conditions.  Some of these are not under your control -- cancer being one of them, much of the time.  If you're in one of those categories then you've got good odds of winding up in the ICU and if you land there about half the time you come out in a box -- 90% of the time if you wind up on a vent.  Those odds suck.  HCQ and either ZPAK or Doxycycline appears to work.  How well is not known yet.  Clinical data (that's "anecdote" to those two cocksuckers on the side of Trump in his briefings) says they do work but no drug regime works for everyone.

Obesity and Type II diabetes, which are two of the most-deadly co-morbidities are absolutely under your control.  So is smoking and excessive drinking.  And to the extent hypertension is linked to being obese, that one is too.

For reasons not well understood at this time diabetes and hypertension, both of which are heavily linked to obesity, are extreme mortality enhancements with this virus.  Thus, it is fair to call The PieHole Virus, that is, what you put in the pie hole, a direct contributor to whether coronavirus kills you or is somewhere between a mild and serious annoyance.

You have until fall folks.  Yes, we have our lockdowns today, but if they don't cut this bullshit out soon hospitals are going to start collapsing for lack of funding and supply chains will break in critical ways.  Then the ordinary heart attack -- or an abscessed tooth -- will kill you because there's no health care at all.

But even if they lift the lockdowns (and who knows if they will) the odds are very high this thing is coming back in the fall.  We should have let it burn out now, but we didn't and won't -- Trump is too stupid to challenge the so-called "advice" of his medical advisers, even after they rely on models that have twice been proved to be blown and fraudulent.  He should fire them both, lift it all, advise high-risk people to shelter in place, consider prophylaxis in consultation with their physicians and go after vectors instead of shutting down the economy.  It was the only sane path to take originally and it's the only sane one now.

But Trump is not sane.  In fact unlike the garbage Russian nonsense for this he deserves immediate impeachment or even 25th Amendment removal.

But neither is going to happen and thus it is what it is.

Neither you or I can change the stupidity in our government alone, and there is no will to change it collectively.  In fact the general population has swallowed this scam to the tune of at least 90% of the population, and maybe more.  Our people give their daily Nazi Salutes to Fauxci, Birx and Trump -- indeed, they demand even more lockdowns and destruction.  Absent many millions changing their minds, sticking up their middle finger, unlocking their businesses and if necessary going to work armed to keep the doors open, making clear that "no means no" this is not going to change -- and there is simply no common purpose in doing exactly that.  We're all sniveling under our desks in fear instead.  Thus, it won't be changed.  Deal with it.  Covid will come back in the fall and you should expect that.  You should also expect any politician who tries to lock things down a second time to potentiate a dirty civil war where merely going to get your mail invites death.  I doubt the people will put up with this crap a second time, and further, the US Government won't be able to fund any of it nor the health care they claim they're "protecting."  We're getting away with it now on inertia, mostly.  That will go away.  It always does, just like it did in 2007 when Bernanke famously said that "Subprime is contained."  He was absolutely full of crap and yet inertia kept the balls in the air for another year.

My mathematical models focused on 2024 for the crossover between spending on necessary items, revenue and the geometric blow-up of the deficit which would force change, like it or not.  That timeline has now been accelerated, although exactly by how far I'm not certain.  Markets never let you actually hit these walls just as they didn't in 2008, which means with the outrageously reckless actions taken thus far it could happen at any time.  Exactly how things devolve from there is very hard to determine -- but none of the potential outcomes are good.

In short while I did it in 8 months you have six, more or less.  Can you get all the way there?  No, probably not.  But you better start now and try if you're fat and Type II diabetic.  Right now.  Not tomorrow, not next week, not some resolution that you won't keep up.


Because if you don't, when this virus comes back in the fall -- you're likely to die.

Go to responses (registration required to post)

Comments on No, It's Not Going Away
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Page 1 of 2  First12Last
Supernumb 79 posts, incept 2017-10-30
2020-04-09 09:53:13

Great reminder Karl of what really matters - if your face fits inside the mirror looking back at yourself. Never too late to start, and I don't need to (thanks to you back in March 2016!) but anybody reading this that can't see their own pecker without sucking in...get with it or max out your life insurance NOW.
Happytrails 973 posts, incept 2008-10-24
2020-04-09 09:53:26

Good advice as usual Karl. I have been back on a much stricter LCHFMP program since January to build my immune system.

You talk about the collapse of the healthcare system, Im convinced it already has occurred for anyone who doesnt have Covid. I have a relative who took a big fall and suffered a serious concussion. Unconscious for 10 min, unable to move extremities for 12+ hours. He was discharged from the hospital in less than two days with Tylenol. He cannot walk without support and is in so much pain he lays down and moans pretty much all the time. No doctor, even the hospital discharging doc will write him a note about his injuries for his employer. His wife finally got an online appointment with a doctor that said he needs to see a neurologist but added, good luck finding one, no one is taking patients now. The online doc also declined to see him in person, saying he thinks he has the virus and is shutting down.

We just moved to KY, never get sick so we never bothered to get set up with local doctors, dentists and ophthalmologists. We are fucked if we need one.

Besides the cruelty to elderly, sick or dying people you have written about recently, the refusal to treat this man is inhumane and disgusting, especially in light of the unused capacity we are hearing about. Im sure there are many more stories like this out there.
Bradyw 2 posts, incept 2020-04-06
2020-04-09 09:54:07

Thanks Karl.

I've been on-and-off Keto for over a year, and every time I make progress I step back a bit. That's over. You're right. Thanks for the reminder, I needed a nudge.

Pharmadude 232 posts, incept 2020-03-26
2020-04-09 09:54:14

Trim the fat off your body, it's literally a life or death situation. This is not fat shamming. Just reality!

Exercise and diet (not to starvation, just meat and veggies) do not cost much, and yet are the simplest and best prescription. Outcomes will vary depending on age and health of course. Health and wealth both require consistent personal investment over time. The sooner those investments are made, then typically the better the outcomes.

Self-reliance used to be an American virtue, because it provides true independence. Gov is like fire, and it should be controlled with the utmost caution or feel the burn (good-ridance Bernie!).
Nicholas 2 posts, incept 2020-04-09
2020-04-09 09:54:33

I'm in Germany. I just listened to a streamed press conference "Corona-Studie Heinsberg: Virologe Streeck informiert" about the results of a study undertaken in the Nordrhein-Westfalen community of Heinsberg, where there has been a high instance of SARS-COVID2. The guys doing the test are not (obviously) affiliated to the Robert Koch Institute (similar to US - CDC), and seem to represent an independent, competent group of scientists.

500 people PCR test + blood antibody test

15% Infektionsrate (i.e. currently infected + immune) (In one test they worked out 20% immunity, but took that out because they wanted to be conservative concerns over false positives)

Lethality = 0.37% (John Hopkins say 1.98%)
Current Mortality = 0.06%

They think the Dunkelziffer (unknown number with immunity?) is probably very low.

They reccomend a gradual loosening of the restrictions. i.e. we reopen schools (presumably and firms), with the proviso that good hygiene is respected
6 to 18 months immunity so we need to get the the herd-immunity (60 to 70%) quickly, or the situation will drag on to infinity

They reiterate that this is a droplet infection, mostly transferred by sneezes and coughs. It can survive for a while on surfaces, but for infection it needs to be picked up and put into mouth/eyes.

I hope this information is in some way useful to you.
Stalag13 64 posts, incept 2020-04-03
2020-04-09 09:55:13

I'm over 60. Last year I went from 205 lbs to 175 lbs in 6 months through diet and activity. One pound a week isn't difficult, if you have been thinking about it then why not start today?
Do_the_math 1k posts, incept 2007-08-09
2020-04-09 09:55:20

I am hoping that millions of people lift up their middle fingers to social distancing and quarantine this Easter Sunday, and celebrate in groups. The antithesis to the lock down game is not to play.

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe." -Albert Einstein

Technojunkie 15 posts, incept 2020-04-02
2020-04-09 09:55:30
Red meat is the best dietary source of bioavailable zinc, by far, that you're likely to eat on a regular basis. Whole grains undermine mineral absorption. So naturally the dietary recommendations at the end of the article mostly contradict the data above it. Keto, Paleo, Zero Carb, all of those are consistent with getting zinc and having a decent chance at fighting off viruses. If our overlords weren't trying to create demand for the Medical Industrial Complex they'd stop farm subsidies that make grains and soy appear so much cheaper than pasture raised beef.
Jal 1k posts, incept 2009-03-25
2020-04-09 09:55:41


Ever heard, "If you don't or if you do, you will be liable."
That fear if probably stronger than. " You'll lose your election."

You layed out all the reasons why the USA will have more death than most countries.

Oppps. Everyone is lying about their numbers.

Living conditions, environment, are indicating that the blacks and brown communities are being hit extra hard by the virus.

Since nobody is testing in the middle east, Mexico, Africa, and the camps of impoverished, displaced peoples in the middle east, Mexico, and Africa, etc. therefore, will these places become rapid breeding grounds for the virus?

I don't think that there is a one eyed man leading the blind and it would not matter. 2024 is coming.

Aztrader 8k posts, incept 2007-09-10
2020-04-09 09:55:48

Market rallies again on massive unemployment and more free Fed money. We are totally screwed. When does the massive inflation kick in?
Lunatic_fringe 9k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2020-04-09 09:55:57

Karl - low carb is great, that's how I regained my health. But in my opinion what's better for restoring health is intermittent fasting. Regaining insulin sensitivity to lower insulin levels is accomplished by not ingesting substances that raise blood sugar and thus raise insulin. That's how low carb diets work - carbs are macronutrient that raise insulin levels the most. But all foods raise insulin levels to some degree so the best tactic is to not eat at all... if your blood sugar does not elevate then your pancreas has no need to produce insulin and insulin regains its effectiveness, much like how a person going cold turkey with alcohol will lose their tolerance for it.

You mentioned that you don't eat until noon and that's actually a very good method of intermittent fasting... a 4 hour to 8 hour eating window gives your body 16 to 20 hours without needing insulin and your body can heal from a lifetime of a crappy diet. If a person were to adopt an intermittent fasting protocol, eat low carb and avoid vegetable oils they will be as healthy as they've ever been.

Some people might not know they have a problem with insulin resistance, you can be skinny but still be diabetic and fortunately there's an easy way to tell without expensive tests. Get a lipid panel done ($30) and look at the triglycerides and HDL. You want to see trigs under 100 and HDL over 50. You also want to see the trig/HDL ratio under 2.0, preferably well under 2. The last time I looked at this for me my trigs were 55, HDL was 66 and my ratio was 0.083. I will live forever.

I'm currently doing what I'm calling the Coronavirus Challenge - at the beginning of this month I went to One Meal A Day (OMAD) and I'll do this until the end of April. My one meal is dinner and I shove as much food as I can down my throat at that time. Even though I was low carb before my pants are already falling off me. This challenge is great for newbies because it really is a great way to regain insulin sensitivity fast. Doing this I would bet that a person could become metabolically healthy in 2 weeks. I used to be fat, have asthma, hand tremors, suffer from hayfever and my eyesight was going bad. Not only did low carb and fasting solve these issues my eyesight has improved to the point were I legit no longer need glasses. How many people out there can say that their eyesight improved naturally as they got older (I'm 54).

What you said in your ticker is the straight truth. Healthcare becomes almost unnecessary once you regain your metabolic health. In 13 years I've seen the doctor once - I cut my hand an needed stitches. Without that my spending on healthcare has been about $250 - for lab tests and the occasional bandaid. I can't recommend low carb and fasting highly enough.
Smooth 133 posts, incept 2020-03-26
2020-04-09 09:57:01

Tickerguy, good reminder.

I have been fasting, it works even if you do eat some carbs. The last week or so, I have nothing but coffee until about 5 pm and then I eat dinner. Not a problem at all. I also fasted for 48 hours straight and it was very doable. Just made sure I had some bullion for the salt.

Jason Fung is an MD who gets it and wrote this book which is really well done.

Fortunately not all doctors are recommending that type II diabetics eat a high-carb diet, although I agree with you that the medical establishment as a whole is AFU.

Ronniemcghee 365 posts, incept 2012-07-28
2020-04-09 10:09:23

Despite the numerous years of market/economic/political advice on the 'ticker', it is your educational attempts for personal health that should be remembered as the most important to readers. I dropped 15 lbs since Christmas 2019 reducing the 'white stuff' in the kitchen.
Macthor 36 posts, incept 2009-09-16
2020-04-09 10:13:33


IIRC you combined your diet change with Couch to 5K, correct?

I started my C25K and push-ups last week when the list of co-morbidities went up. I usually put on weight this time of year - I'm a Tax-focused CPA so I'm fairly sedentary Feb-April. Working from home has been a wash - I'm eating healthier but I'd been moving around even less than usual. I've always had a high BMI even when I was ripped (college football player and power lifting). Much of that has moved to the middle over the years.

Anyway, thank you for this post - it reinforces the wake-up call I got last week. And thank you for continuing to post the truth; without following your blog I probably would have continued on the path I was on through tax season, which now ends July 15th!
Aquapura 3k posts, incept 2012-04-19
2020-04-09 10:17:17

Yep, thanks for the reminder. I too have been on and off that wagon over the years. My two vices are good craft beers (hard to stop at 1) and my lovely spouse. The latter would rather trust doctors than some guy on the internet and her being Asian she always points to how fit her culture is with a diet rich in rice and noodles. Well, we went to Korea a few years back and when you order a side of rice it's a tiny bowl - for a table of 4 adults. Waitress looked at us like idiots when we thought it was a per-person side. Hasn't stopped her from wanting rice with literally everything but that might be the silver lining in the Covid bullshit. Costco hasn't had the big bags of rice for weeks now.
Bikemechanicdeux 1k posts, incept 2020-03-29
2020-04-09 10:17:38

IF you go into the hospital and try to maintain a Keto diet or even something close good FN luck. Type 2 can be controlled, sickness/inflamation makes that very hard. This results in numbers that climb and climb.

I bet most are uncontrolled when they come in. OBESE, HBP, and uncontrolled diabetes when ill with normal problems or injuries, it is bad enough, add in this virus. Kaboom,

I don't trust hardly any doctor or even specialist when it comes to type 2, ever go to one of their diet seminars on how to eat. All they want to do is push drugs, and most kill off your pancreas. Drugs take you to type 1, and on a trip to death row, because the fake insulin they give you will have to be increased and increased, so then you die from that also.

Hell bells they even argue if it is diabetes or not (type2).

If you want to die, go to the hospital, if you want to get sick go to your doctor. They practice their book, and what they are feed is push drugs.

There is a very good documentary about how the medical industry went from natural to all man made, usually from oil at the base. The original OIL king who sold it as snake oil. His son then took that with all his oil millions and infiltrated the colleges and boards and changed the instruction to make sure all the things that worked from the past and natural, went bye bye. WHITE COATS argue from a point of Authority. We all know their are no authorities. and wearing a white coat will not make you authority.

JP Morgan, brother can you spare me a DIME>

When Trapped Attack
Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action
Where there is smoke there is fire
Keenan 531 posts, incept 2013-01-11
2020-04-09 10:41:51

And further evidence, Yale checks in with a study that a Keto diet tames flu virus:

Bikemechanicdeux 1k posts, incept 2020-03-29
2020-04-09 11:21:08


I know a little about sickle cell. Common in Blacks. Could that be a reason for the blood issues they are seeing. Now wanting to do blood transfusions.

Does it seem like they are avoiding the shit eating issues all together.

No investigation into the cruise ship and its findings, or if they did, they are not revealing it.

Now from post above from Germany and their statement its droplet spread, which goes against the Cruise ship results. This conclusion about droplets I believe was part of the press conference yesterday.

could it be they are not saying anything about fecal, because of Political and so called racism in not talking about bad habits. Because living conditions, eating habits all point to poorer sections and conduct. Sure seems like it.

Political Correctness over reality again,

Distraction, LOOK SQUIRREL.

Also I have been looking at where the out breaks seem to be city wise, but without names and seeing if they cluster in places, can't make heads or tails. Still no reports of who what and where, ...sealed caskets, no funerals, etc. Though it does seem to be in large cities on bodies of water around the coast and somewhat inland. I suspect most are in poorer inner cities, and those that have contact with them to spread. And if shit eating is not part of that...... problem, and for White coats to ignore that is criminal imo

When Trapped Attack
Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action
Where there is smoke there is fire
Karlinmichigan 41 posts, incept 2020-04-04
2020-04-09 11:21:45

Karl, In my younger years (I'm 65 now) I was a strong runner, marathon PR of 3:07, 10K of 38:10. After retirement a few years ago I kept up, even increased my physical activity, although via more biking, hiking, canoeing, climbing, etc. and less running. However, despite this I got mentally lazy and saw my weight increase from 170 to 195 (5' 10"). Always fighting that gradual increase no success. Then 2 years ago I came across your website. It was the CARBS, DOH! -- I should have known better. I followed your suggestions, and went from 195 to 165 in 3 months! 160 is my high school weight. Stayed at 165 for the last 2 years, no increase. But, I haven't really thought about those last five pounds until now. So, now it's time to redouble. I've never felt better (although slower!). I credit you 100%.
Pominoz 208 posts, incept 2008-02-05
2020-04-09 11:21:51

Here in Australia as you have probably seen on the news we have bush fires. This years bush fires were worse than previous years. It is natures way of clearing out the undergrowth so new growth can come in its place. Its cyclical. This virus is mother nature clearing out the undergrowth.
Wozjoysfav 57 posts, incept 2019-05-17
2020-04-09 11:22:02

Bravo Karl for your fortitude in regaining the profile of your past youth. Discipline with knowledge ALWAYS lead to the goal of bettering ones health profile. Just turned 88 and this AM walked 40 minutes to and back from the local Publix on a military 120 steps per minute of 30' strides, chest out and chin in!! Weigh around my high school weight of 130 @ 5' 10" with 30" waist. Only hassle is the family curse of prostate cancer which nearly killed my Dad and is slowly killing my sister's middle son w/stage 4! My was detected 5 1/2 years ago at stage 1 and controlled with "eligard" since. Smart dude like you will NEVER slip on maintaining a drill of caring for yourself. Have to knowing a whole bunch of us need hand holding big time from the "professor" Denninger! Especially recently!!!
M1919a2 862 posts, incept 2015-07-18
2020-04-09 11:32:02

@Ticker Guy
Given the day you posted this, the timing could not be better. The advise is beyond SOUND. I know as I was there 2 years before you made your decision to de-FAT. Doing so, looking back, contributed to my being here today to write this.
It's going to be one helluva ride. Thanks.
Onelegged 1k posts, incept 2009-11-13
2020-04-09 12:16:24

I wonder, in all of this, if anyone has posted what their medical bills are for Covid "treatment". 21 days on a ventilator in the ICU must come out in the seven figure range.

Thanks Karl.

All The News That Fits, We Print.

New York Times
Phdude 203 posts, incept 2009-05-26
2020-04-09 12:16:27

Lose the weight & lose the carbs, or lose your life.

I pity the vegans & vegetarian fools. No wait, on second thought I don't. They brought this on themselves. Enjoy your inflamations, omega3/6 imbalance, lack of zinc and top it off with a case of CoronaVirus.

You tried to force your stupid life choices on everyone else. Now suffer the consequences of going against nature.
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Page 1 of 2  First12Last