The Market Ticker - Cancelled
What 'They' Don't Want Published
Logging in or registering will improve your experience here
Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions. For investment, legal or other professional advice specific to your situation contact a licensed professional in your jurisdiction.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be sent unmodified to lawmakers via print or electronic means or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media, to republish full articles, or for any commercial use (which includes any site where advertising is displayed.)

Submissions or tips on matters of economic or political interest may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Considering sending spam? Read this first.

2022-06-24 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 846 references
[Comments enabled]  

Well well look what we have here...

There were no cases of severe COVID illness in either the vaccine or placebo group. The Moderna vaccine had 4,774 children and the Pfizer vaccine had 4,526 (including those who received the placebo).

....

Even this was not statistically significant. In fact, it had a confidence statistic so wide, you could drive an aircraft carrier through it. (They reported the largest confidence interval I have ever seen in my 20-year research career). At one end of the range of possibilities indicated by the confidence interval, the vaccine could be associated with a 370% increased risk of getting COVID-19. The Moderna trial reported a short-term efficacy of 38% in preventing symptomatic illness–an effect well-known to be transient. 

It continues, and gets worse as you might expect.

This is the first piece of actual "uh, you are nuts" reporting in a mainstream publication I've seen.

What's worse than a jab that doesn't work?

One that might harm -- or kill you.

Killing your children used to be good for a nice long stay in prison.

It should be again.

View this entry with comments (opens new window)
 

2022-06-22 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Environment , 833 references
[Comments enabled]  

This is flat-out bullshit.

"We're definitely looking at a hotter future," Katrina Bennett, hydrologist with the lab and lead author of the study, told CNN. "There will be more of that wet to dry sort of scenarios we're seeing, but regardless, we're going to see more minimum streamflow, increase in drier soils and lower snowpacks, which all together will lead to likelihood of drought increasing across the board especially in the upper areas where we really haven't seen that intense drought stress yet."

Meh.

Yes, Yellowstone's flooding is bad.

But I was just out that way.  What I saw was.... astounding.

On the western side of the Teton pass headed to Idaho Falls the road more-or-less follows the Snake River as it meanders around.  I was stunned by what I saw -- houses upon houses all built in what was obvious flood plain.  The land was close to the river, flat and part of the historical flood boundary, which is clear if you just look at it from a slightly-elevated vantage point (the road); you need no special training or education to see it.  That land is quite-fertile for the same reason the land around the Mississippi River is -- it gets flooded periodically and that refreshes the soil.

The older housing stock and older commercial construction was safely away from that -- above it, and on clear land above the flood-space ridge.  The  people who built those places knew how to look at the land and say "uh, that would be nice to have a house right on the river but if we're stupid enough to do that it will either be flushed downstream eventually or we'll have 2' of nasty, muddy water in our living room."

Oh, you say, but its so awful further south?  Oh c'mon -- quit the bullshit.

Have a look at Wolf Creek Ski area.

"Globull Warming" has caused their snow deposition to drop eh?  Really?  Their long-term average is 400 inches a year of snow. Yeah, that's a lot of snow.  But what was it this year?  385".  Statistically-speaking, right on the money.

Fresh water that falls from the sky is not an inexhaustible resource.  Yes, it will be replenished.  But if you draw it faster than it comes down from the sky over time you will run out.  California has quadrupled in population since 1950, roughly.  Nevada has had its population explode by a factor of roughly 20 over the same period of time.  Arizona had about 750,000 residents in 1950 and today sports over 7.5 million, an expansion of about ten times.

Hoover Dam was completed in 1936 and the snowfall and land area from which Lake Mead collects water has not increased by one square foot since, obviously, while the number of people who think they can just come out there and draw on an inexhaustible resource has skyrocketed.

Folks this is not "climate change", its people overwhelming a fixed resource.  No small part of those people are illegal immigrants and the spawn they dropped out after coming here too, so our policy of "open door anywhere, come and rape our land" is and has been for decades bringing ruin.

The southwest is full of desert.  Drive around out there and you will see all manner of scrub and other material that is characteristic of land that sometimes receives rainfall but on an infrequent and relatively dispersed basis.  The vegetation in an area tells you what you're dealing with when it comes to the long-term rainfall patterns and how much water you can realistically extract from same without running into depletion problems.  Simply put when you toss 10 or 20x as many people on a given area of land without concern for such things you're asking to get it up the ass, and now those people who did that are.

We issue building permits to corporations that put up this and that without a single care in the world about forcing them to fund the development of resources necessary for said people that they will then sell same to -- and nobody gets prosecuted for fraud either, as they damn well should building at a capacity they know is well beyond the carrying capacity of the land.

I'm not talking about the ongoing maintenance and upkeep cost; that's paid for by user fees and property taxes -- no, the capital cost to increase capacity is never assessed in impact fees and the screaming is always that "if we did that they'd go somewhere else."

Good!  Let them ruin someone else's part of the country!

I fought this repeatedly when I lived in the Panhandle and always lost, but refused to shut up about it regardless.  You want to put up another condo?  Fine.  Pay an impact fee that covers the increased road capacity construction and utility build-out necessary to serve the people who come when you're done, and do it up front.  No?  GTFO.

That is where the entire problem lies.

If Nevada, Arizona and California had decided (one or all) to force the payment of impact fees to fund the construction of desalination plants for said residential and commercial expansion there would be no problem with Lake Mead or anywhere else.  There is plenty of water off California, of course, but its salty.  But -- they didn't, instead believing that Lake Mead and its feeds and downstream were inexhaustible irrespective of putting ten times or more the user load that was formerly there on said watershed.  The same is true for electrical infrastructure; it's fine to expect the bill to cover the maintenance of same, just as property taxes should over time, but not the construction which has to take place before the people show up.

These impacts are not due to "globull" anything.  That infamous house that washed into the river near Yellowstone was stupidly build right in a riverbank on land that is clearly part of where the river carved, and might again since it did before.  Well, it did.  Big shock, right?

Just wait for the whining when the Snake River blows into its historical flood plain and all those couple of million dollar places I saw have two feet of water in their lower level or are washed off their foundations by the swift water and completely destroyed.  We'll hear the whining, I'm sure -- when the real problem is that the people who built them there were stupid.

View this entry with comments (opens new window)
 

2022-06-21 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 512 references
[Comments enabled]  

Ok, so they're half-crazy.

World swimming's governing body has effectively banned transgender women from competing in women's events, starting Monday.

FINA members widely adopted a new "gender inclusion policy" on Sunday that only permits swimmers who transitioned before age 12 to compete in women's events. The organization also proposed an "open competition category."

Here's the problem: The ban should be absolute, since advocating for, which this does, the destruction of a minor's sexual function ought to get you locked up in a cell full of fire ants.

I have no quarrel with an "open" competition group but let's cut the crap: When it comes to events where musculature and cardio are determinative of success there are going to be a severe deficit of "XX" chromosome people successfully competing in such events.

For those of you who continue to insist on stupid, have a look here.

I just ran this race a few days ago.  I placed 21st overall and got bumped for first in division (50-59 age men) by 10 seconds.  I couldn't beat that guy, but I did keep Hanna and Michael from passing me.  In fact I passed her on the way into the stadium, where the finish was, and I could hear her behind me.  Nope, not today, said I, and the last part of it, which was around the warning track and then a run around the bases from 1st to Home where the mat was, got what I had left -- which was, surprisingly, a decent little bit after the fairly-ugly hills on the course itself.

Now look at the people faster than I was.  There were 20 of them.  Three were women and all three were at least 20 years younger than I am, with one being 15.  The closest 50+ woman in the race finished 44th overall at 29:01, more than four minutes behind me.

That's not because I'm Superman; I am most-definitely NOT.  It's because I was conceived by a combination of sperm and egg that contained an XY chromosome pair and, from that moment forward, my physiology developed differently than someone who was conceived with an XX chromosome pair.  This is determined at the moment of conception by the male's sperm which is either "XO" or "XY" and beyond that instant in time there's nothing you can do about it, ever, no matter what you do.

Once in a while you get an error in that process like all other biological processes.  This is how mutation happens in every organism and yet in virtually every case these are defects, when you get down to it.  That is, they produce harm objectively -- someone with Klinefelter's, for example, is "XXY" and typically has a micropenis.  Most men (and, I dare say, most women) would consider that a defect.

AP and all the screaming "advocates" are lying.  For example:

The debate essentially boils down to advocates who want to protect the space Title IX carved out for cisgender women — women whose gender identity matches the sex they were assigned at birth — and those who want transgender athletes who compete as females to enjoy the same protections as anyone else. Consensus is nowhere in sight, and the fights are piling up.

Sex is not "assigned" at birth; that is a damned lie and anyone who runs it should be loudly shouted down, and if necessary and they try to turn that lie into public policy, jailed or worse.

You don't "assign" sex at birth you recognize what is or is not present at the time of birth as objective fact.

If the baby has a penis it is male.  If the baby has a vulva and no penis it is female.  Period.

If it truly isn't clear genetic testing will prove one way or another, but it is rarely not clear.  About one in a thousand, or 0.1% of children, are not instantly and obviously male or female at the time of birth and that is not "assigned" -- it was determined by which sperm and egg joined at the moment of conception.  Anyone who claims an "assignment" was made by someone -- anyone -- at birth is a damned liar and a monster.  Period.

From said lie all the rest of the remaining bullshit with regard to this issue flows.

Title IX may be a wart-filled mess but it was passed because women's sports typically received less funding.  Is that "fair"?  Do you have a right, as a consequence of being alive, to "fairness" in that regard?  I argue the answer is NO because the fundamental issue is what people wish to spend money attending and thus which particular thing(s) attract more voluntary financial support.

Nobody is forced to go to a football game and spend money.  They go because they want to see it.  In a marketplace of ideas the best ones attract the most money.

To force "equality" in this regard is to steal from those who, in the view of the general public, are more attractive of someone's funds.  If people pay $100 for a ticket to watch men throw a pigskin around and tackle one another, but will not fill a stadium at any price when women play their version of said game, whether it be football, baseball/softball, basketball or similar that's not "inequality" -- its consumer preference.

To forcibly extract $20 of that $100 football ticket and give it to the girls sports team is theft at gunpoint and no amount of arm-waving and bullshit changes that.  Yet here we are, and now, having argued for the  "feelz" said women are screwed because the very same "feelz" are being weaponized by men who take drugs or even cut off their penis because they are profoundly unhappy with what happened at the time their first cell came into existence and therefore wish to punish others for their unhappiness.

Women deserve this outcome because it was women who argued against fact in the first place and demanded this garbage be put in place originally.  If you want women's sports to have a big gate (and thus be self-supporting) figure out what people want to pay to attend and support and provide it.

FINA is right but again the problem arose in the first place because feelz were put before facts and weaponized.  This in turn allowed those who know damn well they've got a biological advantage conferred upon them at the moment of conception in certain sports to turn around and "Black Knight" women's sports, taking the very arguments that were made to put feelz before facts and shoving it up women's asses.

The answer isn't to talk about "trans" anything.

The answer is to stop being stupid and repeal that which was passed to legislate feelz that contradicted facts, in this case Title IX, and tell those who are factually men but wish they were women that while they're free to do whatever they'd like in their private lives once they are adults at their own expense we will not, as a society, allow them to screw women out of a fair contest nor will we let them screw anyone of either sex out of a single nickel to assuage their insanity -- or anyone else's.

View this entry with comments (opens new window)
 

2022-06-17 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Other Voices , 447 references
[Comments enabled]  

Once again the fish fly into the boat courtesy of Ishmael, where The Bottlewasher prepares to fillet and cook them..... -- Ed

June 2022

Unsolicited advice sucks.  I absolutely despise it when people smugly tell me what I should do. Therefore I have no desire to pass the frustration along.

If this describes you, skip this guest Ticker. No offense taken. Clown world raises blood pressure enough, and I don’t want to do my part of increasing deaths from suddenly.

There's a sentiment floating around the dark corners of the internet. It ebbs and flows, yet it builds as time goes on. People are waiting for something to happen. Some describe it as a war, some an apocalypse, and some just say, “Whatever this is, let's just get it over with.”  No one is excited about what’s coming, it’s pure resignation.

Today I'm going to tell you how to prepare for the end of the world. 

Ready for the big secret?  Ok, here goes: You can't.

Thank you very much for reading today’s guest Ticker, have a nice rest of your day.

Waiting and anticipating is a form of torture. Remember the gas lighting, two weeks to flatten the curve, and masks? Even once you knew it was bullshit, the waiting for normal was painful. And that limbo, in addition to the lockdowns themselves, enacted a real human cost that still impacts us today.

Limbo was the start of work ethics collapsing. Granted, the clot shot mandates made that slacking look like amateur hour. The productivity reports bear this out.

Honestly, with rising fuel, consumer, and worst of all producer prices, I almost miss 2020 when our biggest problems were lockdowns and tard rags. Almost. A more accurate simile is eating a shit sandwich while fondly missing the vomit soup appetizer.  

In three previous Tickers, I've discussed prioritizing a physical prep list, what to do with extra time on your hands, and the power of choices. This one is an attempt to prepare you psychologically, a guide out of limbo.  I hope this helps you sleep better, we all need rest for whatever comes.

Getting in a productive mental space is the difference between winning and losing the next battle. It helps to view what's coming as a personal war. Framing it like that immediately highlights win versus lose. And you want to win.

None of us know what will happen in the future, the anticipation becomes torture if we let it. Unknowns loom large and people instantly imagine the worst case scenario.

Short term situations are easier to predict and mitigate, they’re a good place to start.  Not the end of the world, because if that happens, you will not survive and it doesn't matter.  Describe something like this: What is most likely to rock my world this summer? Pick a scenario and define it concretely.  

Make a list of what-ifs. If necessary, put “end of the world” at the top so your mind moves on from it. Write down every scenario you think of, no matter how scary. Writing them down takes away some of their terrifying power. They might happen, but naming it is the first step in facing it head-on. 

Next, break down the items into two sections: what scares me the most, and what is most likely to happen?  Something appearing on both is normal.  Reality is scary, sometimes as much as what our minds imagine. 

Now make a third list: what can I influence?

How many of the scary scenarios are out of your control?  Be honest here.  You are not going to stop or start a revolution. We aren’t voting our way out of this.  But you can store food now if the trucks stop delivering for a month or so this summer.

The third list is the only list that matters. The other two will keep you up at night and disrupt sleep with nightmares.

Take that third list and prioritize it. This is your personal guide out of limbo. 

View this entry with comments (opens new window)
 

2022-06-14 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 4373 references
[Comments enabled]  

That there is not an open revolt -- a real one -- is hard evidence that basically everyone has lost their fucking mind.

I was vaccinated against measles when I was a kid.  So was my daughter, at my behest.  She also got the chicken pox (varicella) shot; I got the virus when I was a kid, intentionally (my mother gave it to me on purpose by taking me across the street to play with my friend who had it.)

If I got the measles and so did myriad others, having taken the shot which I was told would prevent the measles, I'd likely tear the head off the asshole who poked me with the needle and shit down his open trachea.  I'd accept it if I was indeed the rare exception -- one in a hundred, or a thousand.  When its all over the news on a daily basis with people being infected two, three or more times after being jabbed the jury is in, you lied and you ought to be paying for those lies with your life.  Period.

Cut the crap about "oh it would have been worrrrrrsee!"

You know you're lying to both yourself and others.  Many of you have had Covid not once but two, three or more times.  It's all over the media; various government officials have had the virus multiple times, often symptomatic too.  All jabbed.

Meanwhile I refused to take that crap and ultimately got Covid.  I survived, obviously, and just ran a half-marathon without going thud so obviously both my lungs and ticker still work as they did before.  That's objective, not subjective.  And despite, I'm sure, being exposed many times since I recovered I've not gotten it again -- at least not that I know of.  If I allegedly "was positive" at some point in the last year or so it certainly wasn't "symptomatic disease."

Now is that proof I'll never get it again?  Of course not.  I expect I'll get it again at some point.  It'll be a cold, as is OC43, another coronavirus that we are pretty sure caused a pandemic in the 1890s.  Wow man, a cold.  Such a horrid thing.

By this point damn near everyone has had Covid.  So why are people getting it two, three, four or more times, frequently just a few weeks apart and nearly all if not all of those who are having that happen took the jabs?  Gee, I wonder why?  Ever hear of a thing called "OAS"?  Maybe you should have listened to folks like me who predicted this might happen.  Or perhaps you should have paid attention to my flagging of the other problem before the mass-jabbing started, which was that we had evidence you were likely to not build "N" protein recognition (which is the part of the virus that doesn't change materially) if you took the jabs.

Oops.

Then there are the assholes who are still coercing people.  Among them are the VFW in Ann Arbor (Virtual Flipper World, NOT the Veterans group) with their pinball exposition coming up this fall.  First wildly raise the price of tickets then offer a discount if you provide proof of being jabbed.  I've attended that show and play-fest many times and spent a crap-ton of money in the surrounding area while doing so; indeed it was an annual ritual before Corona-Crazy.  Never again you pieces of shit.

I get it.  Nobody wants to admit they were full of crap, especially when it might mean something really bad is coming.  Like what happened to both Justin Bieber and his wife.  What are the odds two young people both get fucked by "rare" side effects that are in fact linked to the jabs and its not the jab that's responsible?  If the odds of a "random" hit from such events are 1 in 100,000 for someone of these ages in a given year for both of them to get hit in the same year by said "random" events has roughly a one in a billion chance -- in other words you're more likely to win the Powerball and not by a little either.

Surrrrrrre that was random.

The Biebers are not the only ones.  The multiple re-infection list is so long among politicians and celebrities you can't even count it anymore.  Never mind the young people dropping like flies of things that almost never get young people.  Sure, it does happen that young people "thud" from time to time; I knew someone who fell over from a congenital heart defect he didn't know he had in his early 30s, and he was the jock's jock too.  But when that happens, at least historically, they always go look for the cause at autopsy and in basically every case find it too.

That's not being done now, is it?  Nope.

Let me know when you wake the fuck up.

Until then you can fuck off, especially if you're one of the assholes who did, or still is, pushing this crap on people.  If you formerly were but recant and accept just punishment for every person harmed as a result of your "advice" or worse, fine -- but not until.  The evidence is that this crap not only doesn't work it's dangerous besides.  I mean c'mon man -- not everyone who uses fentanyl dies, right?  Does that mean you should use some today?  The NY Health Department claims "safe" fentanyl use is "empowering", I remind you and they're the same group of fuckfaces who has been pushing these shots on everyone, including children.

You really are that stupid, aren't you?

You really will let them kill you -- and your kids -- won't you?

View this entry with comments (opens new window)