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2020-05-10 06:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 597 references
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Let's cut the crap on masks, ok?

The other day I managed to get buzzed.  My head, you idiot -- not on a bong.

They insisted (state rules) that I wear a mask.  Meh.  Ok, so I had a dust mask in the truck (its proper use is for sanding things), so I wore it.  It's worthless to prevent viral transmission, by the way, and so was the one the person buzzing me, who also had one on, was wearing.

Why?

Let's quickly review.

A mask on your face will interrupt particles you exhale forcefully.  So if you cough, for example, it will trap the larger droplets.  It will not trap the vapor-phase water nor anything that's in there.  Virus particles are much smaller than the spaces in the mask material, never mind the inevitable gaps around the edges.

So the mask will stop some, but nowhere near all, of the particles you exhale.  I remind you that we could stop all drunk driving by mandating that every person blow into an attached breathalyzer before their car would start.  We would never tolerate such a thing unless you've been convicted of drunk driving first, and then only for a limited period of time.  Mandatory "mask rules" are the same thing; they impose this mandate on you with zero evidence you're infected and thus can transmit anything.

Now how about on the other end -- the person who isn't infected?  Should they wear one in an attempt to prevent their own infection?  There the news depends on how the infection is spreading.

IF the infection is spread by manual transmission of non-aerosol particles -- for example, fecal-oral -- then a mask is extremely effective in preventing the wearer from becoming infected.  Why?  Nearly all such transmission of a "manual" sort occurs when you touch something that is contaminated and then touch the interior of your nose or the fleshy parts of your mouth -- specifically, your lips.  But remember, according to the CDC (despite the actual documented evidence) Covid is claimed not to spread this way.

Why does the CDC refuse to bring this form of transmission forward and focus on it?  Because then we have to talk about toilets in hospitals, nursing homes and other commercial environments that are invariably high-pressure driven units that spray material all over the place when flushed, adult incontinence products used in both and how they're handled and disposed of and the fact that hand sanitizers are ineffective compared with washing one's hands -- all of which means the protocols that the CDC has said are "good enough" or "reduce risk significantly" really aren't and don't.  They know this, by the way, and we also know from history that one of the most-effective ways to transmit a virus is fecal/oral -- polio, as one example, has one of the worst transmission rates (R0 of roughly 5!) and is transmitted almost-exclusively via this route.

Oh by the way when you look at the data roughly half the deaths thus far are in fact people who were in nursing homes. Of course being able to add 2 and 2 yet not use "common core" to claim the result is 5 goes against the "teaching" of the useful idiots all over the place, never mind that if you actually looked at this issue dispassionately you'd be compelled to immediately bring thousands of counts of manslaughter against Cuomo, Newsom and others.

So instead of doing the right thing we instead killed tens of thousands in said nursing homes and claim "masks" are required for certain workers to be able to open their businesses.

But wait, you say -- you haven't pointed out why they're worthless if the actual transmission route is through vapor in the air!

Ah, if you don't get it you have no brain.  Or, to be more-specific, you have no eyes.

SARS-Cov-2, the virus that causes a COVID-19 infection, is nearly 100 times more effective at infecting the human conjunctiva -- a thin, clear tissue covering the eyeball and inner surface of the eyelids -- and upper respiratory airways than SARS, Dr. Michael Chan Chi-wai, who led the research team at Hong Kong University’s School of Public Health, told the South China Morning Post. The team's findings were published in the most recent issue of The Lancet Respiratory Medicine.

The eyes are surrounded on all sides except right where they stick forward so they're useful to you with a moist, live skin surface.  Unlike unbroken epidermal skin on your hands viruses can trivially penetrate that surface into the body -- and do.  Water vapor in the air, some laden with virus particles, will exchange with any open area and come in contact with same, exchanging back and forth with the air itself.  Gas laws state that unless you have a 100% seal such exchange will occur extremely rapidly due to Brownian motion and as a result wearing "goggles" or glasses does nothing to interrupt that.  This is distinct from droplets which are not in vapor phase and rapidly drop to the floor or ground outside, and in the context of outside if there is any wind whatsoever the dissipation happens quickly enough to make person-to-person transmission nearly impossible unless you are literally face-to-face.

It has been long recognized that your eyes are a primary entry point for any airborne virus or other material.  Ask anyone with an allergy to pollen about that.  You need only cut an onion to recognize that irritants in vapor phase can and do get to your eyes.  In addition even with a mask if you touch your eyes anything on your hands will get in via that route as well.

This, by the way, is likely why NY has documented that the majority of people who wound up in the hospital after their lockdown were in fact locked down and staying in their homes -- they were not "essential workers."  Simply put the measures put in place do not work because they can't work with an airborne respiratory virus.

This in turn means there is no effective way to prevent transmission among people at-large.  It simply cannot be done and as such we must respect facts and move on with our lives.  It doesn't matter if we like it or not; it is what it is.

We destroyed the economy for no actual benefit, and our refusal to admit this means we're still destroying the economy.

The remaining and actual effective mitigation is to go after the vectors in health care settings -- specifically hospitals and nursing homes with a targeted intervention based on the sanitarium model I've been advocating since this began.

I could go on with regard to gloves as well, but this is long enough for now.

Simply put -- a mask is useful if you believe you may be ill, especially if you cough.  However, it will do little or nothing to prevent transmission to you of an infectious agent that is spread through the air -- and that's just a matter of physics and physiology, not "virtue signalling."

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2020-04-27 10:01 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 866 references
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For those with 30-second attention spans:

  • Diamond Princess proved that the claim, which continues to be made today, that (1) this virus is extremely deadly and (2) there is zero cross or innate immunity were both false.  It is not possible for a very transmissible respiratory virus to infect one person in a quarantined cabin of two people, while the other does not get sick at all unless either (1) the second person is already immune or (2) the second person gets it but has no symptoms at all and recovers before being tested, and thus tests negative.  I remind you that this was proved, conclusively, before the end of February.

  • Kirkland proved that (1) the virus is extremely virulent and deadly among nursing home populations, killing double-dgiit percentages of the people in said places, (2) that flu season mitigations were ineffective in preventing the spread, as it was already flu season and (3) it was likely spread through fecal/oral and by the workers in the facilities -- that is, health care workers are a primary vector.  Yet to this day we have not locked in nursing homes nor done anything about that vector as people in said places count nearly half of all deaths and continue to be a primary source of both cases and deaths.  I remind you this was proved, conclusively, by the first week of March and thus all nursing home fatalities from Covid-19 since that time are in fact negligent homicides for which governors and the owners of same should be held personally liable both civilly and criminally.

  • Seroconversion testing has now proved my hypothesis that the first two points meant that (1) we could not actually stop transmission with "mitigations" and (2) health "care" was and would remain a primary vector for this disease.

  • Seroconversion testing has also now proved my belief that actual infection rates were much higher than reported (by at least an order of magnitude -- that is, ten times) and, as a result, fatality rates were much lower by an equal amount.  This meant that this respiratory virus was both very different than influenza but a lot like a cold virus.  In other words, flu has basically a zero silent infection rate; if you get it, you get sick.  Colds, on the other hand (some of which are caused by coronaviruses) frequently produce silent or near-silent infections where at worst you sneeze a couple of times.

  • The data from everywhere serologic surveys have been done proves conclusively that "lockdowns" and other forms of forced mitigation, along with "contact tracing", are a waste of time and in fact indirectly harm or even kill people.  The enormous number of "silent" (asymptomatic) infections, with all evidence being they account for at least ten times and perhaps as many as 85 or more times those who are tested, makes this clear.  If you are tested, positive, yet gave the virus to ten people and only one of them ever becomes symptomatic trying to chase down all the "positives" is now not only futile it's criminally insane because you want those asymptomatic infections to occur -- they directly help society rather than harm it by directly suppressing future transmission of the virus.

  • The data out of Wuhan showed that vents were a complete waste of time and any "mitigation" intended to blunt impact on hospital utilization so as to make vents available would actually do nothing at best, and kill at worst.  We now know this to be true in the United States.  This in turn means that mitigations intended to "flatten the curve" to preserve hospital space are stupid and ineffective since driving people into hospitals and encouraging invasive procedures does not save lives -- it actually takes lives.  Adding financial incentive to that (which our government has done) is manslaughter on a gross scale and in addition we have now spent money building devices that don't work, adding intentional financial fraud by our President to the mix.  We are now in the realm where people should get the guillotine for their conduct in that regard as manslaughter for money is commonly called contract killing.  Killing for naked political purposes is a crime against humanity.

  • The data now proves that the only rational way to deal with covid patients who need health care is a sanitarium model.  The goal must be early intervention with drug therapies (proved or not) because vents don't work.  Simply put you must isolate/quarantine (whether in said sanitarium, locked-in facility or someone's home where nobody can leave or enter other than a seropositive individual who cannot transmit the infection) for those who are actually infected.  Keeping the virus out of ordinary hospitals so Joe with his heart attack does not get the virus in the hospital and die due to his already-weakened state is essential -- and yet nobody has done one thing about that.

  • Since a huge percentage of those infected are not harmed at all or only have minimal symptoms you want to encourage that event since it is the only means to build immunity in the population.  Any other action is criminal negligent homicide as such "mitigations" are in fact a direct cause of those at high risk becoming infected and dying.  When you cannot prevent the spread of a respiratory virus, and that is the case here as is now proved by the data, then those actions that prolong the window of harm for those at high risk are not "mitigations" -- they are crimes.

And to top it all off we have nearly zero state or local politicians, say much less a President, who is willing to stand up and speak to any of these facts.  Yet they are now all facts -- not suppositions, beliefs or even just a hypothesis supported by the data.

They are facts.

They all started as a hypothesis with decent evidence but over time they've graduated to irrefutable facts backed by actual data on the ground.

What remains a hypothesis, but is also likely to be proved up, is that there will never be a vaccine and immunity wanes over time, as both are also characteristics of coronaviruses in general, which means this will come back in the fall, it will be with us on a permanent basis, the "mitigations" not only can't work they can't be reapplied forever and there will never be a successful vaccine either.

This means "suck it up and deal with it" is all we have left -- and that the sanitarium model is the only sane public health measure that can have an actual positive impact.

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2020-04-09 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 784 references
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I've tried to warn people of the coming likely disintegration of our health care system.

I've put forward a bill to fix it.  Nobody has cared.  Not one torch, not one pitchfork was to be found.

I suspected that was going to happen when Obamacare was passed.  Those of you who have been here since the crash know that I noted when Obama was elected and started in on Obamacare that it was my view that if I got older, fatter and sicker I would eventually die because the health care required for me to live would disappear -- whether Obama had promised it to me or not.  So would millions of others.  And not one person ever did lift a finger toward that rat bastard or his minions in the House and Senate at the time.  They're still there and he's still a free man.

So in 2011, realizing that there was no way they were going to do the right thing I instead did this:

 

That took 8 months.

I still look like that.  Well, ok, my hair has more gray in it.

Now to be clear -- I didn't do it for anyone else.  I did it because I knew that if I didn't do it I would end up even fatter, likely diabetic and screwed.  I was never diabetic but I did buy a simple finger-stick meter and some strips, and did my own version of challenging my endocrine system in the privacy of my own home.  What I saw wasn't encouraging.

60lbs and 8 months later the data was still not encouraging, even though I felt a hell of a lot better  Literally everything was better.  Sleep, demeanor, everything.  Even my boner (ok, TMI, I know.)  But a few years later the data tells a different story.  Today I can sit down and choke down an entire big bag of chocolate; almost all sugar.  It's not possible for me to drive my blood sugar way up.  It just doesn't happen.  My fasting glucose is right up the middle where it should be.  I still have the meter and every year or so buy a few strips and see what's up, just to be sure.  I eat low carb, high fat.  There are exceptions, but my primary sustenance is comprised of animal protein and green vegetables.  It works, I'm never hungry, and I enjoy what I eat.  I often eat nothing, literally, before noon.

Why?

I'm not hungry.

It's nine years later.  Those who say it doesn't work or you can't stick with it -- you're wrong.  It both works and is delicious.  Oh, and over time your body may heal itself.  I take no prescription drugs.  Literally none.

Now we have Coronavirus.  It's not going away.  There will be no vaccine.  There is evidence (but not proof) that the antibody protection wanes with time and some people don't get much protection at all, despite getting the virus.  None of this is scientifically proved yet, but given the evidence expecting a permanent-immunity vaccine is foolish.  There will almost-certainly not be one.  If the antibody protection wanes then a vaccine is a waste of time and money, and the efforts to produce one will soon be abandoned.

Being obese and diabetic has a high probability of being a death sentence if you get this virus.  You're anywhere from 100 to over 1,000 times more likely to die.  To put perspective on this if you get this virus you have less than a 0.06% chance of death (and probably less than half that; I'm being generous in the direction of mortality in that calculation) if you have none of these conditions.  Some of these are not under your control -- cancer being one of them, much of the time.  If you're in one of those categories then you've got good odds of winding up in the ICU and if you land there about half the time you come out in a box -- 90% of the time if you wind up on a vent.  Those odds suck.  HCQ and either ZPAK or Doxycycline appears to work.  How well is not known yet.  Clinical data (that's "anecdote" to those two cocksuckers on the side of Trump in his briefings) says they do work but no drug regime works for everyone.

Obesity and Type II diabetes, which are two of the most-deadly co-morbidities are absolutely under your control.  So is smoking and excessive drinking.  And to the extent hypertension is linked to being obese, that one is too.

For reasons not well understood at this time diabetes and hypertension, both of which are heavily linked to obesity, are extreme mortality enhancements with this virus.  Thus, it is fair to call The PieHole Virus, that is, what you put in the pie hole, a direct contributor to whether coronavirus kills you or is somewhere between a mild and serious annoyance.

You have until fall folks.  Yes, we have our lockdowns today, but if they don't cut this bullshit out soon hospitals are going to start collapsing for lack of funding and supply chains will break in critical ways.  Then the ordinary heart attack -- or an abscessed tooth -- will kill you because there's no health care at all.

But even if they lift the lockdowns (and who knows if they will) the odds are very high this thing is coming back in the fall.  We should have let it burn out now, but we didn't and won't -- Trump is too stupid to challenge the so-called "advice" of his medical advisers, even after they rely on models that have twice been proved to be blown and fraudulent.  He should fire them both, lift it all, advise high-risk people to shelter in place, consider prophylaxis in consultation with their physicians and go after vectors instead of shutting down the economy.  It was the only sane path to take originally and it's the only sane one now.

But Trump is not sane.  In fact unlike the garbage Russian nonsense for this he deserves immediate impeachment or even 25th Amendment removal.

But neither is going to happen and thus it is what it is.

Neither you or I can change the stupidity in our government alone, and there is no will to change it collectively.  In fact the general population has swallowed this scam to the tune of at least 90% of the population, and maybe more.  Our people give their daily Nazi Salutes to Fauxci, Birx and Trump -- indeed, they demand even more lockdowns and destruction.  Absent many millions changing their minds, sticking up their middle finger, unlocking their businesses and if necessary going to work armed to keep the doors open, making clear that "no means no" this is not going to change -- and there is simply no common purpose in doing exactly that.  We're all sniveling under our desks in fear instead.  Thus, it won't be changed.  Deal with it.  Covid will come back in the fall and you should expect that.  You should also expect any politician who tries to lock things down a second time to potentiate a dirty civil war where merely going to get your mail invites death.  I doubt the people will put up with this crap a second time, and further, the US Government won't be able to fund any of it nor the health care they claim they're "protecting."  We're getting away with it now on inertia, mostly.  That will go away.  It always does, just like it did in 2007 when Bernanke famously said that "Subprime is contained."  He was absolutely full of crap and yet inertia kept the balls in the air for another year.

My mathematical models focused on 2024 for the crossover between spending on necessary items, revenue and the geometric blow-up of the deficit which would force change, like it or not.  That timeline has now been accelerated, although exactly by how far I'm not certain.  Markets never let you actually hit these walls just as they didn't in 2008, which means with the outrageously reckless actions taken thus far it could happen at any time.  Exactly how things devolve from there is very hard to determine -- but none of the potential outcomes are good.

In short while I did it in 8 months you have six, more or less.  Can you get all the way there?  No, probably not.  But you better start now and try if you're fat and Type II diabetic.  Right now.  Not tomorrow, not next week, not some resolution that you won't keep up.

Now.

Because if you don't, when this virus comes back in the fall -- you're likely to die.

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2020-04-07 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 166 references
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This is quite interesting....

The FDA has warnings that azithromycin “can cause abnormal changes in the electrical activity of the heart that may lead to a potentially fatal irregular heart rhythm.”

So instead, Alam replaced azithromycin with another decades-old antibiotic that doesn’t pose any known risks to the heart.

“Doxycycline is an anti-inflammatory with properties similar to azithromycin but without the safety concerns and without cardiac toxicity,” he said.

Now that's an interesting twist -- and it appears to be working.

This doctor reports 38 of the 47 patients he had, all of whom were very high risk, have stabilized with this regime.  It didn't work for everyone but the fact remains that this looks very promising for people who would otherwise likely be hosed straight-up; these are persons who would be rather likely to be killed by a simple flu.

Is this statistically significant?  Not standing alone -- but another word for "anecdote" is "clinical evidence", and when you have a group of people who are otherwise screwed and you can only improve the situation for someone who is likely to die then it certainly looks to me like a positive outcome -- especially when we're talking about people who can't use ZPAK due to their underlying health conditions.

Interestingly enough doxycycline is also an anti-malarial.....

The article in question mentions that the Henry Ford health system -- a very large hospital network in SE Michigan -- is using this combination as well and as a result we'll probably get some pretty good data soon.

Again, do not attempt to play doctor with this on your own -- this is a tetracycline antibiotic and some people are allergic to those medications, and it can cause tooth discoloration (permanent) in un-erupted teeth.  This would be a problem in both children and pregnant women for obvious reasons.  Additionally it can be very dangerous in people using warfarin and similar medications.

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2020-04-04 15:33 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 703 references
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Why do we keep putting up with the lies?

One quarter of the deaths in NYC, the area with the highest death count from Coronavirus, lived in nursing homes.  This over-represents them as a percentage of the population in the city by fifty times.

FIFTY.

Not percent, TIMES.

Statewide 20% of NY deaths are patients in either nursing homes or people in assisted living facilities.  This over-represents the population by FORTY times.

Again, not percent.  TIMES.

We don't have a general-population pandemic.  Yes, we have people getting sick.  Yes, people are dying.  Yes, many of them are in the general population.  But we know how to deal with a lot of this; HCQ/ZPAK/Zn appears to work.  Not in everyone, and it should be given early, not late.

But it appears to work.

Further, we now have damn good evidence that fully half of all infections are asymptomatic.  That is the person who gets it never gets sick.  At all.

Why am I being told to shelter in place when half the time if I get this bug I don't even sneeze?  By the way if I get it and don't even sneeze you want me to have it.  Why?  Because then when the poor bastard next to me DOES get sick I can't get it and thus his ability to give it to others is reduced.  Get enough people like me and that poor sick bastard will run out of attempts to transmit it before he either dies or recovers.

Where is the authority in the Constitution to quarantine people who are not ill?  Who are not currently infected?  I will not get ill nor can I transmit the virus to someone else unless I have it.  Since when can someone's Constitutional Rights be suspended indefinitely when they are neither carrying a virus or ill with it?  There is no such authority.  Period.

We keep being told that this virus kills people left and right, like it's SARS, smallpox or something similar.  The simple truth is that it isn't.  Not even close.

Yes, the virus is dangerous.  Quite dangerous, if you have one of a list of serious illnesses, but we know what they are.  Worse, we also know where some of the major spreading is going on too given this over-representation among nursing home and assisted living facilities -- its the workers in those places, and worse, many of them are very poorly paid and thus take second jobs doing at-home care, during which they can transmit it to those people -- all of whom are at high risk by definition.

NY has even ordered nursing homes to accept discharged Coronavirus patients -- which is like throwing a lit match in a barn full of dry hay.  That's flat-out insane, to the point that one wonders if they want to drive up the death rates for political purposes to justify their "shelter in place" order.  That order is quite-arguably mass voluntary manslaughter!

75% of nursing homes have been cited for failing to monitor and control infections in the last three years.

Think about that: 75%!

We don't have a coronavirus pandemic among the general population.  Oh sure, it's bad -- don't get me wrong.  It's a nasty bug, it can get anyone, and it is getting plenty of people.  A few who are not seriously ill are being killed by it.  Key words: A few.

But when you have a quarter of the people getting seriously ill and dying coming from a part of the population that is one half of one percent of the total you do not have a widespread community pandemic.

You have a specific problem with transmitting disease in that part of the community, and since exactly zero of those people are in control of that part of their own destiny it's not that individual's responsibility either -- it is the health care system under which they are living that is infecting and killing them.

But without a widespread community pandemic you also don't have legal, ethical or moral justification for locking down anything under force of law -- constitutional or not.

Cut off the vectors to the most at-risk -- individually through strong advisories to shelter in-place and for those in assisted living facilities and nursing homes solve the problem there.  It is outrageous and unjust to the point of questioning whether an immediate revolution is in order if, in order to protect the poor infection control record and obvious transmission from the outside to one half of one percent of the population you instead issue executive orders that imprison everyone in their homes.

This country is not a police state.  Well, it's not supposed to be anyway but you sure as hell are acting like it is and you're a dictator with the right to imprison and even kill people simply because you say so.

The truth is becoming more-evident by the day -- even in the mainstream media.  It will not be long at all before the people decide they've had enough of this con job; while a huge percentage of the people in this country cannot do math if you think the people will sit still in their homes and have their jobs destroyed permanently because some underpaid workers are infecting one half of one percent of the population through misfeasance and malfeasance I suspect you have another think coming, and you might not like how it comes either.

We have another option and it's entirely congruent with what we're learning about infectious vectors with this disease.  I wrote about it this morning.

OPEN THE ECONOMY NOW MR. PRESIDENT.

Not tomorrow, not next month, NOW.

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