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2019-08-23 10:04 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 212 references
[Comments enabled]  

This is rather amusing -- and alarming.

Today the market as a whole takes a header on tariff news.

However, if you look internally you'll find some interesting statistical outliers.  There's always some "story" on why, whether it be some firm's earnings report or perceived "immunity" or "benefit" from an event.

We heard the same thing in 2007.  Who remembers Counrywide Financial?  It was going to play "Brain" and take over the world as all those other subprime lenders went bankrupt.

How'd that work out for 'ya?

History rarely repeats in the market but it nearly always rhymes.

The same pattern is playing out today.  Right here, right now.

And while we're at it we have a President cheering on The Fed to embark on more enabling of fraud -- especially and most-importantly the fraud coming from DC which is currently running a roughly 25% fiscal deficit.

That's right -- about a trillion worth of deficit and $4 trillion in spending means fully one quarter of all federal spending is unfunded.  This, and only this, is why Trump is screaming at The Fed.  He knows that the charade must go on despite the facts, specifically that to be prosperous you must square what you want to do with what you earn.  In government terms this means that the natural friction between what programs are desired and what taxes you can collect must govern what can and does get done.

Nope.  Not at all today.

On either side of the aisle.

Indeed, the left side of the aisle wants even larger fiscal deficits.  Right now.  To fund their "green fantasies", among other things of course, all of which are wholesome, Bambi-style good while everyone else is Satanic-level evil.  Those people not only deny exponents -- the laws of mathematics -- they deny thermodynamics -- the laws of physics -- as well.

The storm is coming folks.  The "authorrrrrriiiittttiiieeeesssss", all of whom are smarter than you (so they say), will do everything possible to maintain that 25% -- and growing -- fiscal deficit.  The theft must continue, particularly when it comes to screwing you on medical care.  The premise of "infinite growth" must continue, even though it can't.  You must believe in the mathematically impossible.

You must.

Because if you don't the DOW trades at 2,000, the S&P at 200, and most of what's in the Nasdaq has no value at all.

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2019-08-21 09:44 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 126 references
[Comments enabled]  

Most people are hedonistic to some degree.

Some are dumb enough to proclaim it in public.

Milano said she looks back on the decision without regret.

“I would not have my children [Elizabeth, 4, and son Milo, 7] — my beautiful, perfect, loving, kind and inquisitive children who have a mother who was so very, very ready for them,” she said. “I would not have my career. I would not have the ability or platform I use to fight against oppression with all my heart. I would never have met my amazing husband, David, whose steadfast and immeasurable love for me sustains me through these terrifying times," according to People.

No, you would have had other children.

And yes, all those other things you cite might not have been yours either.

Nonetheless those two, who were destined to become children, were killed.  By you.  And yes, the law allows you to make that choice.  And no, I do not believe that the two of you both were using reliable birth control in that relationship -- that is, you were not both acting as adults -- at the time.

The odds of not one but two serial pregnancies even with one means of reliable birth control, properly used is astonishingly low.  It is true that the odds of a single failure are low but not zero.  Indeed, for those on the pill or other similar chemical contraceptive properly taken, that is, if you're acting as an actual adult the risk of failure is about 1 in 1,000 per year.

But the odds of two successive failures are 1 in a million.

It is extraordinarily unlikely that such took place.  Not impossible, but extremely unlikely.

Just to put some numbers on this, because humans are really terrible at evaluating such "unlikely but possible" risks (this is why people like Milano run this sort of horsecrap and think they can get away with it) here are some other one year odds -- of dying.

It is 1 in 5,000 that you will die by accidental poisoning this year.

It is 1 in 8,000 that you will die by motor vehicle accident this year.

It is 1 in 22,000 that you will die by someone shooting you on purpose, not suicide or accident, this year.

It is 1 in 116,000 that you will die by fire in a structure, or ten times more likely than that Milano had two sequential birth control failures which were actual failures -- that is, she was acting as an adult and actually using said birth control correctly.

It is one in 450,000, approximately, that Milano would have drowned in a swimming pool -- in other words, roughly twice as likely as said double failure.

I raised my daughter as a single father.  In choosing to do so I forewent going back to college and getting a law degree, along with many other opportunities.  I sold and walked away from a company with multiple millions of annual revenue; who knows if it would have survived the .COM crash, but it might have.  If it had it may well have wound up something akin to Facebook or Amazon.

I do not regret that decision.  It was the correct decision, and yes, it slammed doors closed. I did so on purpose.  When the times comes for me to die that decision will not be one of the decisions I regret.

It's called being an adult.

Ms. Milano can choose whatever she wants.  And, to the extent she kept it to herself, it would be between her and whatever higher power you may believe in, if any.

But I can choose to spit on her public display of hedonism, which she has chosen to attempt to use to "virtue signal" while stomping all over the dead fetuses that she flushed down the toilet like a tampon, finding them "inconvenient" in her quest to make millions.

PS: There is another possibility, given the odds of a double-sequential failure. She's actually had zero abortions and is lying through her teeth.  If Senator Warren can lie for years about her heritage and profit from it, why not here?

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2019-08-21 09:05 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 83 references
[Comments enabled]  

You don't think this guy might be dangerous?

The Federal Bureau of Investigation said Thomas Matthew McVicker, 38, of Punta Gorda, Florida, first came under scrutiny on Aug 12, when the FBI in Tampa received a tip that he planned to carry out a mass shooting and then kill himself, according to court documents.

....

McVicker’s family said he’s being treated for schizophrenia and sometimes uses cocaine and methamphetamine. His mother told the FBI that sometimes he “hears voices” and claims to be possessed by demons. He had a Ruger P90 handgun in his possession.

But but but but..... we keep being told the mentally ill aren't dangerous...

Oh yes some of them are.

Someone who believes they're possessed by demons has a very high potential to be dangerous to others.

Incidentally there suddenly seems to be quite the interest in people like this guy.  I've read of several people being interdicted either after an event like this or after they announced on some sort of social media that they intended to do a horrifying thing over the last couple of weeks.

Gee, you mean we don't need to ban guns -- just pay attention to people?

There's no implication of Constitutional Rights when you make the announcement in a public place that you intend to commit a mass-shooting.

That's the thing about people who are nuts -- they usually show it.  You just have to listen and pay attention.

Indeed, if our FBI had given a flying **** about reports they actually received 9/11 wouldn't have happened.  They had at least two credible reports in sufficient time to stop it, but in both cases failed to do anything in response.  3,000 people died as a directly consequence of their intentional blindness.

No, you won't catch them all this way.

But you will catch a good number of them, as we've seen the last few weeks and taking that action implicates nobody's rights nor does it violate the Constitution.

Go figure.

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2019-08-20 07:20 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 88 references
[Comments enabled]  

This pretty-much lays out the case...

His main focus today is Yuancheng, which sells chemicals both to the general public and to other businesses. It offers more than 10,000 different compounds, a vast and head-scratching list, everything from food additives (including synthetic versions of cinnamon) to pharmaceuticals (including the drugs used in Viagra and Cialis) to collagen, pesticides, veterinary products, anabolic steroids, and precursor chemicals used to synthesize drugs, including fentanyl.

Got it folks?

It's not just fentanyl precursors, although those are the "bad ones."  Well, maybe.  Steroids are pretty bad too, but not instantly.  Yet there's a hell of a black market for those here in the United States; they just kill you slowly instead of in a couple of weeks or months, but kill you they do.

If you really want to get down to brass tacks the best analog is the terrorist who wants to make a bomb.  He doesn't have the materials to make a bomb, but he wants a bomb.  So he goes out and tries to find people who will sell him the materials.

Many chemical substances have multiple uses -- for example, ammonium nitrate is a common fertilizer.  But if you're buying a ton of it and don't have a reasonable-scale agricultural operation of some sort questions may be in order, since you can make explosives with it too.  But these specific chemicals aren't used for other things -- they're really single-use, and their use is making fentanyl.

Fentanyl itself is relatively difficult to make from scratch.  But with the precursors it's trivially easy.  This is true of many drugs of abuse and is why, for example, they cracked down on pseudoephedrine pills in the United States, which you used to be able to buy over-the-counter in unlimited quantities.  Given enough of them it's pretty easy to extract the active ingredient and make crystal meth out of it, which can then be injected or smoked.  Nobody could possibly use the thousands of pills that were being bought for this purpose legitimately -- thus, the registries now that limit purchase quantities if you insist on buying the stuff for its original intent.

These folks simply don't care.  Further, they're deliberately mislabeling their shipments, which is proof they know the intent of the buyer is illicit at the point of destination.  Why lie about what's in the package otherwise?

There's no "trade deal" to be had with people who deliberately ship poisons into the United States and those governments who refuse to put a stop to it.

Don't kid yourself folks -- China is an authoritarian society and every one of these factories and company officials are well-known to the PLA.  They know when the average Chinese person takes a crap; it beggars belief that this is not an officially sanctioned and approved action by the PLA.

Get this through your head folks: The government of China is perfectly ok with people here being killed by extremely powerful opioid drugs that they allow to be manufactured and shipped knowing they will wind up here in the US and kill tens of thousands of people a year.

The PLA are suborning murder and they know it.  Tell me again why we're coddling Apple which decided to make their phones in the nation that is murdering our citizens.  Yeah, **** you Mr. Trump and your backpedaling to "save" Apple because they stuck their manufacturing in a Communist nation while Samsung did not.

Who's decision to put their manufacturing in a Communist nation was it?  That was Apple's -- so why aren't they solely responsible for the consequences of same?

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2019-08-19 07:09 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 147 references
[Comments enabled]  

Oh blow me.

The time has come to have a national dialogue regarding the police of our nation and why a growing number of our fellow citizens seem to view them as the enemy.

Dangerous lines are being crossed, lives are being lost, and needed authority and protections are being weakened.

During last week's shootout and standoff in Philadelphia in which six police officers were wounded, some of the bystanders were observed openly insulting the police who were putting their lives on the line to subdue the suspect.

Also last week, a highway patrol officer was shot and killed in the line of duty in Riverside, Calif., and two others wounded.

In recent months, officers have been ambushed or gunned down in Georgia, Wisconsin, Sacramento, Los Angeles, and Missouri. In June, 36 officers were injured during orchestrated attacks in Memphis. And nine New York City police officers have killed themselves this year.

So what?

All of this has been earned.

Let's submit the truth to a candid world, as the author of this piece knows damn well.

The cops have become brigands, thugs, enforcers for lawless felons and thieves over the last few decades.

The shooter in Philadelphia had been arrested on myriad occasions.  In 2001 he was arrested for possession of a firearm with an altered serial number -- near-immutable proof that the firearm was stolen.  He was convicted in 2008 of fleeing from police and resisting arrest, along with illegally possessing guns.  And in 2014 he was arrested for "false imprisonment" (attempted kidnapping, basically) and drugs.  This is what CBS News reports but it's intentionally watered down by the press to cover for the outrageous, repeated and intentional "walking" of someone with a rap sheet as long as your arm.  Exactly how many aggravated assaults do you get to commit "free"?  Reckless driving as well (apparently resulting in an accident) along with fleeing from the scene?

These are crimes against people with real victims, not "mere" drug possession and he wasn't prosecuted for any of them.

And by the way, after his first conviction and apparent release, while on probation, he got busted and pled guilty again for both drugs and weapons, the latter of which was dropped.

Then there's the robbery and kidnapping -- apparently with a gun -- that weren't prosecuted.  What about the victim who was robbed and kidnapped?

Why would I respect an agency that treats kidnappers as "friends" and doesn't throw them in prison?

Hell, those swine are accomplices!

Do you believe these are "isolated incidents"?  They're clearly not.

Every single day cops, including federal, state and local, intentionally turn their heads and in fact assist in the commission of myriad felonies against ordinary people.  It's not just the thugs like this guy stuffing guns in people's faces.  It's also the rampant, intentional and daily violations of laws small and large by the "large corporate interests" who in many cases are allied with the government itself.  Specifically, virtually every single hospital and other medical provider in the nation facially violates 15 USC Chapter 1 and their violations have twice resulted in them attempting to claim immunity for same going all the way back to 1979 in Royal Drug at the US Supreme Court.

They lost both times.

You'd think with nearly 40 years of serial law-breaking on a daily basis and not one but two failed attempts at the Supreme Court to claim immunity from said laws there would be thousands of executives and "health providers" sitting in prison, considering that these violations are 10 year felonies carrying $100 million fines as well per occurrence -- that is per person harmed.

You'd be wrong: I cannot document even one such arrest and prosecution.

Indeed the US DOJ, after Arthur Andersen, actually issued policy that large firms were not to be criminally indicted.  Nowhere is such "policy" supported by law and the DOJ has no authority to re-write law.  Only Congress can do that, and it has not.  Indeed, anti-trust law, 15 USC Chapter 1, was written explicitly due to the actions of corporations over 100 years ago and was intended specifically to charge both the firms and their executives individually as a matter of criminal law, which is why it explicitly contains separate penalties for both individuals within corporations and the corporations themselves.

As such every element of the DOJ including every single FBI agent is nothing more than an enabler -- that is, accomplices and armed "muscle" -- to myriad corporate felons that between them rob you of trillions of dollars each and every year.

What's even worse is that the willful and intentional refusal to enforce immigration laws at both state and federal levels where various businesses are knowingly supporting and employing illegal invaders.  This screws the least-capable -- those on the left side of the bell curve for ability, education and intelligence -- the worst.  From the "money transmitters" (such as Western Union) that deliberately violate "know your customer" and similar laws which make structuring and failing to report suspicious transfers a criminal offense amounting to billions transferred out of the United States by tax evading criminals (that is, those very same illegal invaders) to state and local thugs-in-blue who intentionally look the other way and in fact release invaders rather than turning them over for prosecution and who refuse to arrest business owners and executives both large and small we have yet another example of so-called "law enforcement" being nothing more than willing and intentional accomplices to criminal activity that has, on a repeated basis, led to citizens being assaulted, raped and even murdered say much less screwed out of jobs they would otherwise have.

Then there's the claim that "most" cops are good but there are, as with any group, a few "bad apples."  If that was true then every time there was a dirty cop there'd be 10 good ones that would immediately turn on said dirty cop and out them, insisting they be arrested and prosecuted.  How often does that actually happen?  Almost never, which once again marks all of the rest of them as willing accomplices.

Yet we're told we should "respect" these cum-stains and it's "dangerous" not to?  **** that; everyone in this nation gets financially hosed by this horsecrap and what's worse is that if I or anyone else find myself as a victim of a violent assault the record in Pennsylvania makes clear that the perpetrator is likely to be let go instead of prosecuted!

I'll show some respect when the "blue" folks start doing their job instead of enabling violent felons and corporate interests that rob every single lawful citizen in this nation out of more than three trillion dollars every single year in America, never mind the victims of assault and kidnapping that get zero recourse to the law.  Shall I point to Epstein and his "sweetheart" deal in Florida?  How many young girls were sexually assaulted and had no recourse to the law so various rich and powerful people could walk free?  We already know that a former US President has lied about his association with said jackwad.  Was he one of the people who's interests were "more important" than young girls who were raped as determined by so-called "law enforcement."  How about Dennis Hastert, the former speaker of the US House?

Until all this crap stops everyone who "demands" said "law enforcement" people be respected get an identical response as were I to see one of them on fire I wouldn't even stop to******on them to put it out:

smiley

PS: As for "gun control" until the felon-enablers cut that crap out guns are all the law-abiding people of this nation have left as a means of lawful and reasonable self-defense.  We sure as hell can't call the felon-enablers and expect them to do anything about the criminals!

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