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When I first began writing The Market Ticker I made a practice of doing a "Year in Review" ticker toward the back half of December with a list of predictions for the next year. Part of this, after the first one of course, was scoring myself on the previous year's predictions.
Predictions for events, market-based, societal or political, with a year timeline are pretty tough. Most years I managed to get somewhere around a third to a half of them, and a couple of times a few more than that. Plenty of people thought this was a terrible record. Frankly, I'll put that up against Gundlach, Gartman (who for a very long time was the absolute best person to bet against, ever) and a whole host of others, most of whom would be lucky to hit 10%. And while half sounds like random chance it's not by any stretch of the imagination; these are not bets against professional odds-makers such as a football game where the book does its level best to set the line right at the 50/50 point and if they suck at it they are out of business in a very short period of time.
2020 was an utterly-astounding year. I had made a decision a couple of years earlier that since I was quite tired of the NW Florida coast and the ever-increasing soft encroachment of "Ft. Lauderdale North" in both the level of corruption and other matters (e.g. traffic, etc) I was leaving, and spent most of 2019 looking for the exact where, focusing in NE Tennessee. That contract was in the bag before the end of the year and in the early days of 2020 a hard contract to sell my residence in NW Florida was in the bag too. Of course I had no idea at the time that Covid would show up a few weeks later -- but it did. It complicated my moving somewhat due to the lockdowns and bull****, but in the end it was all executed on and completed -- and I'm in no way unhappy with my choice.
I've long pointed out that for a self-employed or not-employed person there are severe problems imposed by Obamacare that make it really ugly until you reach 65 and qualify for Medicare, and they get worse every year. I'm not yet 65. The reason is the "donut hole" in Obamacare subsidies designed to intentionally screw you starting at just over $20,000 a year in gross income, and which reaches its maximum level of financial******right at about $40,000 for a single person; both figures doubling for a couple. The screwing ratchets upward rapidly with age, yet it is precisely the middle-age individual who is best-positioned to start a business -- during the formative years of which he or she will make little money and thus the screwing is most-intense. It's the most-regressive taxing scheme ever imposed in the history of the United States against entrepreneurship. It not only does not bother large, established businesses they actively promote and love it because it inhibits competition.
Had it been in place during my early years of MCSNet it would have literally prevented me from starting the company as doing so would have led to me living in the street; I would have been unable to pay rent, groceries and the power bill at my apartment. If you think that outcome was accidental you're flat-out nuts. I'd have had no choice but to take a "code monkey" position somewhere and by now I'd have likely been displaced by my job being moved to India or some H1b dude who works for $20k/year being imported with either resulting in my being tossed into the street.
It has been ten years since that time and nobody has risen up in revolt -- not openly, not quietly, not at all. No work stoppages. No general strikes, although I've pointed out that they're not only legal they cripple both government and private industry and are the single most-effective non-violent and legal means of coercion a population has. Simply put nobody cares and instead the echo chamber of social media is where people threaten to secede or riot -- yet other than a few soyboi who claim to care about "black lives" yet burn black businesses to the ground, and have you noticed nearly every one of them bringing the gas-filled bottles is a white drug addicted ******* or serial felon?
Covid is just the latest load of bull****. Oh, not the virus; that's real. No, the hysteria. Early in the course of this thing I pointed out that by the math it had to be here in the US no later than October of 2019, and was probably earlier. That's how comparing RNA samples works; entropy is a fairly decently understood thing and given a fair number of samples you can put an inside boundary on when something started. You can't put an outside boundary on it since you can only compute from what you have samples for. Everyone thought I was a crackpot -- but now we know it was true because antibodies were in blood donated in the first two weeks of December of 2019, and in fact the prevalence in those samples was 1.4% and was more-or-less evenly distributed through the country which means over 4 million Americans had been infected by December of 2019. How much attention has been paid to this? Zero; yet it is irrefutable scientific proof when antibodies are in your blood that you had the infection. It is accepted proof for measles, chicken pox, mumps and dozens of others that if you have a titer of antibodies you were either vaccinated or infected. If you look at the "flu" curves for the last five years you do have to wonder; is Covid really novel at all or has it been circulating in the United States for years? It certainly was circulating in the first part of the flu season last year and yet of course we don't count anyone dead from it until roughly February despite hard, scientific proof that it was all over the place and more than 4 million Americans had been infected by the first two weeks of December.
Did the CDC, NIH or anyone else run any of these samples in January and February? Nope. Everyone simply took China's and the WHO's word for it. Ditto when they started shoving tubes down everyone's throat despite us knowing in February it did not work in that the data out of Wuhan showed that more than nine out of ten times if you ventilated a Covid patient they died.
95% failure, known in March, yet our Lord and Savior Trump spent billions and fed a medical machine and murderous Governors including Cuomo, Witmer and others with ventilators produced under the DPA that did not work and we knew did not work, conclusively so.
Where were the people with their pitchforks and torches demanding the ejection of every one of these murderous *******s who killed your grandmother with known worthless but very expensive and profitable medical procedures?
Has this ever changed? Nope. It has not changed a bit. Again we knew in March that this virus produced a clotting disorder if you got hammered. I have early reports of this out of California in a thread in The Bar here on my forum. I found some of it hard to believe; people with O2 sats pictured in the 80s laying on a gurney using their cellphone to text people, yet there it was. We've known how to treat clotting disorders for close to 80 years. That's no bull**** folks; Heparin and Warfarin are both very old drugs with known safety profiles used in millions of people. My father was on Warfarin as he had phlebitis and it was a prophylaxis given to him in an attempt (successful over more than a decade's time) to prevent a clot from forming and breaking off that could have easily killed him via heart attack or occlusive stroke.
In addition there was reason to believe both Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin were potentially active, at least if used early when viral replication was still going on to treat this disease. As it turns out they both are. HCQ turned into an immediate political football but Ivermectin was more-or-less ignored. Or was it? Not everywhere -- just here where money is all that matters and dead people are fine provided it makes money. Think I'm kidding? Look at the infection and death rates in parts of Africa and South America where there are few doctors and damn little resource. What there happens to be is Ivermectin in wide-scale use as an anti-parasitic and damn little Covid death. That correlation was known early, plenty of people misread it to think it was HCQ that was involved and perhaps some of it was because malaria is also in those areas. By June the studies had started to show up on Ivermectin and at this point there are 24 such studies completed and reported out, 10 of them randomized trials and 100% of them found benefit. Two, one in Egypt and one in Argentina found from 80-100% effectiveness when used as prophylaxis to prevent infections. In short we know how to stop the promulgation of Covid without a vaccine and its potential risks; Ivermectin has a proved safety profile with nearly four billion doses dispensed along with wildly-common use in animals as well.
I have raised Hell about the screamfest of "Massssssssks!" for the last five months becasue it is clear on the data and the physics that they cannot and do not work. Multiple alleged "scientists" have claimed they do but every one of those claims has been blown up over time as spikes have occurred after mandates where compliance has been extremely high, exceeding 75% and in some cases exceeding 90%. There is not one place where durable suppression of transmission has occurred concurrent with a mask mandate. Why not? Because most transmission occurs in homes and the second is nosocomial -- that is, from a health care worker. If a health care worker who is trained as a professional in the proper use of masks and in fact has access to and is using the best quality masks is still infecting people then obviously that particular claimed intervention is worthless and worthless or not nobody is going to wear a mask in their own home.
On the other hand a medical school, EVMS, has documented a protocol that does appear to work including post and pre-exposure prophylaxis. The data says that protocol works as well as a vaccine in preventing infection. This means we could have cut off Covid-19 starting in the late summer; we had the data and simply refused to use it. Had we used it then at least half those now dead would be alive and there would be no fear, no reason for masks, no reason for vaccines or anything of the like. The proof is right here:
We live in a post-science society folks. I have no dog in this hunt. I own no stock in Pfizer or Moderna. I do not and never have earned a nickel from the so-called medical complex. I've watched through my years decades of malfeasance and worse when it comes to medical procedures, from the bull**** surrounding statins to the latest crap including stents and high blood pressure meds. You may or may not know this but there is no evidence that for a person with stable angina a stent does anything to reduce their risk of heart attack or stroke but has a 1 in 50 risk of killing you during or immediately after the procedure. Yes, stents can save lives; if you're having an actual heart attack they are one of the few ways to stop the damage right here, right now and are of lower risk than immediate open-heart surgery, so there you go. Ditto for blood pressure meds; in people with mildly-elevated blood pressure while the meds do lower blood pressure they have zero impact on mortality from the averred method of prevention -- stopping heart attacks and strokes. Of course both make people money. Then there's the statin mess which I've written on in this column many times, along with the psychotropic meds (SSRIs) which are known to create "rage monsters" in a small percentage of those under the age of 25 -- yet are still handed out like candy.
Anyway, enough of the expose on the medical scam; it's not new and in fact goes back decades. It was a huge part of Obamacare and for decades before that. It's been a racketeering enterprise for decades as well and despite it being fully and explicitly legal for any doctor to prescribe any drug "off label" -- indeed, roughly a quarter of all drugs are prescribed off-label -- doctors are threatened and even get their tickets punched for doing it whenever and wherever it might interrupt the cash flow in the local medical systems and hospitals. Medicine, in short, has not been an art for a long time; it is now an assembly-line where the primary study endpoint is the making of money and outcome-based compensation is in fact illegal. Little wonder the death rate per 100,000 people in the US has been going up rather than down for the last 10 years.
Oh, the media hasn't told you that? It's right on the CDC's own pages!
Well, **** 'em all.
In 2011 I altered what I ate, going directly against the so-called "medical advice" and I'm in better physical condition now and more athletically competent than I was when I was 17. I consume and require zero prescription meds on a routine basis.
Since April I've personally used the non-prescription prophylaxis that has developed and been learned from over time. The protocol I've been using has been stable since June. I've been exposed to Covid several times that I know occurred (approaching a half-dozen known exposures at this point) and yet I haven't gotten it. I did, however, get a nasty flu-like bug the first week of January that had lingering effects for over a month and proved physical degradation until just a month or so ago in terms of VO2 recovery -- but if it was Covid then I didn't build an antibody response to it because I've been able to ascertain that I don't have them. Maybe I did have it, that I had plenty of spare capacity kept me being rat****ed, I was T-cell reactive and thus didn't build antibodies but all of that kept me out of the hospital and also kept me from being killed by a tube shoved down my throat. Who knows.
In the backdrop of all of this and the screaming idiots under their desks demanding you dehumanize and de-socialize yourself by hiding behind a diaper we had an election that was one of the most-outrageously insecure and corrupt in my time on this planet. It was facially illegal under the Constitution in a whole host of states simply because non-legislative modifications were made to procedure and those are facially unconstitutional -- pandemic or not. I have no idea who actually won but it doesn't matter because, as I noted in a speech before the County Commission here a few days after the contest it is nearly certain Biden will be inaugurated in January.
This didn't happen in a vacuum -- it happened because for the last 20+ years you have sat around with your thumb up your ass as all manner of unconstitutional and otherwise illegal things have occurred instead of rising and demanding it stop under penalty of immediate removal from office and authority by whatever means were necessary. This was compounded by what we now know was deliberate suppression of the fact that an existing criminal investigation was underway related to the entire Biden family for more than a year and their potential money-laundering ties to China, never mind the blatantly-unlawful acts surrounding and after the 2016 elections which the so-called "Savior of the World" Donald J. Trump did not stop, expose and blow to beyond the orbit of Mars despite being the factual head of said agencies and section of government responsible for same. In other words he had the full authority to do so and didn't use it. Stop making excuses for someone who had four years and sat around with his thumb up his ass. He deserves ejection for that standing alone.
With that said here are my predictions for 2021. As was always the case in the past I reserve the right to modify anything in this posting until 12:01 on January 1st, 2021 and no revisions will be noted as having been made since nothing is set in stone until that time. This posting will not be pinned but will be exempted so it will not roll off; back when I used to do this every year there was no roll-off but now there is by default, so in the interest of being able to actually account for accuracy I will exempt both the post and all replies.
Here we go.
We'll leave it here for the time being but I may add a few more bullet points before the end of the year. For other than typos and similar once January 1st comes, however, whatever is on the page is what it is.
Let the scoring begin!
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