2023: The Year In Review And A Cloudy Crystal Ball
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2023-12-26 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 651 references Ignore this thread
2023: The Year In Review And A Cloudy Crystal Ball *
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Go on back and read the original if you'd like as I score along from last year's prognostications....

  • The virus "response" is collapsing and will continue to: DING DING DING!  There are still a handful of people screaming at the top of their lungs and making a spectacle of themselves much like a 2 year old that has been told they cannot have another candy, but the uptake on the latest shots is what it is and the sales job has failed.  What's astounding are the people who are trying to re-write history, especially those who threatened others and now try to claim they didn't, or try to claim they did not prognosticate that we would go through a "winter of being dead" if we didn't comply.  Well, we didn't comply and we're not dead, and now here are in winter again.  I'll leave the rest for the -NAD side of the blog.

  • That collapse and the increases it brings in cost will accelerate the detonation of the federal budget via CMS.  DING!  Over two trillion was spent there last fiscal year ending September 30th and its not stopping either; through November, which is one sixth of the fiscal year (two months) the current total is $306 billion .vs. $291 billion last year.  While that is "only" a 5% increase thus far if you think we can keep paying that, uh, no.

  • Other schemes peddled as "medical advice" will be increasingly explored.  I'm going to call that a "push" and bring it forward, although I could probably take credit for it -- specifically with regard to certain medications.  But its not clear that I will "win" that argument thus far, so we'll see.

  • Severe dislocations due to mandates through industry.  POINT!  Its literally all over the place from various firms screaming about "back to the office" to pilot shortages to severe military recruiting problems and, not surprisingly, nursing.  All of these had one thing in common -- they all had mandates and some of them (like the military) have now tried to say "oh, come back please, we didn't mean it."  Uh huh.

  • Cost-shifting in "online shopping" will crack.  MISS. It is what it is but the prediction I made as a part of it, which was that the "order today, have tomorrow" game is getting screwed with in a big way, appears to be verifying -- at least in my experience albeit with a few exceptions.  I'd say that "time to get it to 'ya", if you're not paying specifically for speed, is up somewhere around 30%.  Nonetheless the prediction was it would blow up in people's faces and it did not, so no point for me.

  • The market is not done going down.   MISS.  Surprisingly so too for me, but it is what it is.

  • The Omnibus insures inflation is not over either.  POINT.  Oh I know, last few months "core" is coming in supposedly but let's cut the crap folks -- roughly double the Fed's "primary gauge" isn't "normalized" and reality is what it is.  

  • Rates are not done going up.  POINT.  The IRX started at 4.32 (roughly) and is now at 5.2.  That's almost a full point higher.  The TNX is basically flat, but the curve inversion is worse, and not by a little (in fact on the TNX-IRX it is three times worse), than it was on 12/31/2022.

  • Business is going to have to return to employees being functional.  MISS.  I expected a crap ton of firings and while they're starting now December alone doesn't count.  I can't take credit for it when its six months+ late, although look before because I'm carrying that one forward.

  • DEI and ESG will be increasingly recognized as DIE.  NEAR MISS, but I get the point over Harvard, MIT and UPenn among others.  This one's not over either.

  • Russia isn't going to be "beaten" and the Ukraine support will vanish.  Point.  The vanishing is happening (no supplemental yet eh?) and Russia definitely hasn't been beaten.  The war's not over yet but anyone who thinks Z's troops were going to stomp Putin (with our assistance or otherwise) has been sadly wrong, and plenty of Ukrainians are dead as a consequence.

  • The impact of the Omnibus will be historic, and nasty.  MISS.  Some of the most-egregious provisions are still in there but not yet recognized, and thus while some have been (and even reversed, such as the near-total ban on drilling) not enough for me to take credit for it, so nope.

  • Green energy is headed for the dustbin and firms are in trouble.  POINT!  Ford, GM and similar are all running away from EVs.  So is virtually everyone else, although there's still a brave face on it coming from various quarters.  It doesn't work thermodynamically and the cars are piling up on lots among other things.  

  • DeSantis will either take the RNC pole position or blow up.  The latter -- POINT.  You have to chuckle when Haley is nearly beating him, and she is.  DeSantis is losing by thirty points or more to Trump.  I'd say that's "blown up."

  • Political shifts are going to increase in ugliness.  POINT!  Comity?  What's that?

  • Economic and political disparities in areas between "red" and "blue" are going to produce actual fractures in supply lines and cooperation.  POINT!  Blue cities screaming about "migrants" that they refuse to get behind blocking at the border, proving without question that their "support" was in fact nothing more than a desire to screw other states?  Well.... yeah.  Among other things.

  • Illegal immigration forces policy changes.  Nope.  Not yet.  There are signs of it, including rumblings about calling up the Guard and putting down crossings by "whatever means must be used" but thus far other than the fencing that Texas put up (and they won a court challenge on Biden's people cutting them too) it hasn't folded back on the government yet, but no point for me.

  • Housing is nowhere near done going down.  POINT.  We ain't there gentlemen; the market continues to remain locked, although I am seeing plenty of price-cuts here it doesn't matter as they're not moving.  This is going to be a huge story forward and will be below once again.

  • Auto prices, specifically used cars, are going to collapse.  MISS but just barely.  The various "feelers" at the auction level say I might be off by a month or two and it IS starting, along with the incentives coming back on new vehicles.  Nonetheless its no point for me, but I'm going to carry that one forward into next year as well.

So how's this look.... I count twelve points, 1 push and six misses for a hit rate of 12/19 = 63%.  Not bad.

On to 2024!

Let's do the two pull-forwards first and then the rest:

  • Car prices - kaboom!  Its starting already, and some of the biggest collapses are going to come in the EV area.  Simply put those who want them bought them and nobody else wants them.  You can't get around the charge time and distance requirements and it matters not what you mandate; people do not want them, especially when the credits expire and suddenly they cost wildly more than a gas-powered vehicle.

  • Businesses will be forced to cut those who do not produce.  The inflation squeeze is not over and the "RIP" meme stuff sounds great but only works when labor is in control of the equation.  The tide is turning on this folks, and with the below on the economy if you're one of those people who has played that game you're first to get a pink slip.

  • The "great congressional reset" put forward by the current speaker, that is returning to regular order with his extensions expiring, are going to amuse -- and fail.  We'll see if he has the rocks to stand firm when the other bills fail to be completed by the end of January.  He said "no more extensions and CRs" but when he said that originally I disbelieved, said so in public and still do.  Therefore my prediction (for the point) is that no return to regular order, which means there will be at least one and possibly several more "extensions", "Omnibus" and "CRs", which in turn brands the GOP as a pack of liars.

  • Silly season, otherwise known as the federal elections for November, will bring multiple surprises -- and upsets.  What this means is that to get the point either (1) someone other than Trump or Biden has to actually win (whether by oddity or being knocked out) or (2) a serious third-party challenge must actually get onto the ballot or some state-led action (e.g. barring Trump from the ballot successfully) has to occur and throw the result from what it would otherwise be.  If either Trump or Biden wins I do not get the point.

  • Congress will not materially reign in spending and a secondary inflationary spike will start to hit before the end of the year.  It is what it is and right now Congress is driving a roughly eight percent inflation rate.  Oh, you think its 4% right now?  Uh, no it isn't; short-term absorption can temper what would otherwise show up but can't stop it, and that short-term stuff goes away.  Specifically there is a drawdown on excess reserves that is almost gone and will soon be gone, and there's nothing The Fed or anyone else can do about that.  It is serving as a buffer right now but that is ending, and soon.  The usual pipeline delay is still there -- which means coming into the elections things get quite interesting.

  • There will not be four, five or six rate cuts.  No point if there are four or more.  Less than four and.... ding!

  • There will be at least a 10% drawdown from the closing market price of the SPX on 12/31, and I get two points for a 20% or greater one.  If the market goes up in the early part of the year its not 10% from there, its 10% from the 12/31 price.  Yes, this means I might by buying some PUTs and no, that's not investment advice although I do consider them "on sale" at the moment with the VIX trading around 13.

  • Housing begins to crack in a serious form.  It is too early, and this year will remain too early.  If you have to move then do so, because selling a bubble and buying one is a net zero, but for the love of God do not take on leverage to acquire real estate in any form at this time.  You're asking for it straight up the chute.  It will be years before a reasonable bottom comes -- best guess is three to five years out.

  • AirBNB and similar are done.  Yes, there will still be short-term rentals and places like the Smokies are not going to have them disappear by any means, but the salad days are over and all these firms and their "hosts" are in for some serious financial trouble. $200 a day for a stay and close to that base price again in fees and such, including exorbitant cleaning fees and "expectations" (e.g. "you do the laundry and take out the trash or get fined") are going to disappear as people increasingly decide that a hotel is a better deal (and a lot of the time -- it is!)  Anyone who bought one of these with leverage (e.g. has a note on it) is going to get ruined and the recent practice in places like Sevier County of assessing all said properties are commercial (they are) and subjecting them to commercial property tax and other rates should and this year will expand.  This in turn means both the revenue and expense sides of the balance sheet for these sorts of properties are going to get squeezed against the owners; anyone in them with leverage is exposed to being financially destroyed.

  • A serious revolt begins as regards illegal immigrants (or "migrants" if you prefer.)  This probably does not involve mass-violence although it might.  It does involve economic revolt in all respects, particularly when it comes to those places that are Democrat-controlled (e.g. cities and similar) and it will come from those who already are trying to claw their way up, meaning already-present Black and Hispanic Americans.  Given the upcoming elections this has every possibility of not just shaping state and local elections but national outcomes as well.  This is and will remain all about economics - when all is said and done people vote their wallet and that not only never has changed it never will change.  This is the biggest threat to Democrat office-holders in November by far; their "open border and handout" policy was crafted in a way to screw Red states and areas but that was always intellectually bankrupt, particularly while Democrat-heavy places extolled their "sanctuary" status.  Now they have to deliver on their promise and to do it they must take from those who elect them which is not very popular with said electorate (big shock, right?)

  • The Middle East conflict will not be settled; it will instead expand and become a serious problem.  I'm not all that good at prognosticating the twists and turns of military insanity, but if you think there's any indication that its going to calm down over the next year may I recommend a psychiatrist -- you need one.  Significant disruption to international trade is already occurring and is likely to expand and we, in America, have ceded our authority and capacity to absorb it on an inflation front, having squandered that in the little adventure over in Ukraine.  This is already leading to wild increases in container transport prices and it just takes one sunk ship for insurance to become essentially unobtainable for commercial trade.  This is not WWI or WWII where even with armed military escort transports were routinely sunk.  We lack the capacity, given the ridiculous increase in ocean-bound shipping, to provide such protection (leaky though it would be) even if we wanted to.  In short essentially all global trade relies on the lack of military action by belligerents in any focused sort of way on said trade routes and we simply cannot escort same and thus secure it.  At the same time we can "see" everything (and so can everyone else) in the satellite age so the premise of "surprise" across oceans is for all intents and purposes void as well.

  • America will walk away from Ukraine; while nobody will have "won" Ukraine will have to sue for peace on essentially the terms Russia wanted originally.  You can't take and hold ground without boots being there and Ukraine simply has fewer boots available -- and plenty of theirs have run away rather than enlist and fight.  This was utterly predictable from the outset; Ukraine is not and has never been a cohesive society.  I pointed this out originally when this dust-up started -- there are four "rough" factions within the nation and they all hate each other sufficiently to be willing to slaughter the others, given even a weak excuse.  Its been that way for a thousand years and is why the USSR basically allowed them to be "autonomous."  Nonetheless whether we or anyone else likes it the Russians have their naval port and will not give it up and unless you're willing to fight a nuclear war over it you're crazy to try.

  • We will be forced to deal with the realities of the medical and pharmaceutical business -- and it will start this year.  It won't be over and done this year by any means, but the hiding of the sausage is simply untenable at this point and while there is still lots of hand-waving the capacity to absorb it and drive more spending into the health care field on worthless and even harmful actions has now gone so far it threatens the fiscal survival of the nation.  The people who refuse to adapt to this and get their own health in order -- which I've been talking about for the last ten years in volume -- are going to have a very bad time of it.  Don't be one of them.

  • DEI will have a rough year.  By December the winds of change will be everywhere.  Harvard's issue with Gay is the tip of a very large iceberg.  That onion will get peeled and Harvard will be essentially forced to do it by firms that, if they don't, will start boycotting their graduates.  There are already winds of this afoot in regards to Harvard's Law School and that is going to spread.  Right now these places are all saying "its not about Harvard's students" but that's false; it is very much about their students and what they become while there, whether they entered the college with that point of view or not.  This is not limited by any means to three universities and a few fields either; if you look at all the cyber break-ins over the last few years in very large, and allegedly-capable companies it should be immediately-obvious that the basic problem is that competence is absent in places where it shouldn't be.  That's the fundamental problem with "DEI" when you get down to it; you are hiring, admitting, promoting, passing and generally advancing on metrics other than competence.  This is only possible without getting destroyed by competitors when you can force others to do it too which is why the Ivys getting involved in this has been successful for this long and so has it been in "industry."  It may have taken the Israeli/Palestinian issue to force this abject fraud onto the front page but now that it has it won't go away and the notice that it does and will lead to bad outcomes across industries will get noticed.  This is not a one year thing but my bet (for the point) is that this is the year in which it gains enough currency to be "a thing" and the pendulum shift becomes unmistakable.

  • The big "R" (Recession) will be evident, although possibly not yet declared, in 2024.  Note that the NBER is frequently six months or more behind on that, so anything that officially turns down from June onward is unlikely to be officially declared by the end of the year.  I will take the point if its evident whether formally declared or not, but will not take it if its nebulous or not in evident bloom by the end of December '24 (in other words, I won't cheat.)

As always I reserve the right to amend and add things from now until 12:01 AM January 1st at which point it is what it is and we go forward with the scoring from there.

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Comments on 2023: The Year In Review And A Cloudy Crystal Ball
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Cmoledor 3k posts, incept 2021-04-13
2023-12-26 09:03:05

I always dig these predictions. Happy new year to all.

The whole world is one big fucking scam
Its a big club and we aint in it. But we damn sure pay the dues. Rangeishot
God will NOT help anyone. Prayer is only worthwhile as a boost to
Asimov 150k posts, incept 2007-08-26
2023-12-26 09:03:05

Good job. Maybe not quite as good as some other years, but I would definitely call that a win.

It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Eoinw 201 posts, incept 2021-07-14
2023-12-26 09:03:05

Thank you for the predictions. A nice guide to enter the new year with.

One question I have, due to Washington and the entire Western political class ignoring reality, what happens if Powell and the FED also choose to ignore reality and don't stop cutting? Do they lose the dollar?

I can't help but think the WEF actually want the dollar destroyed - to be replaced by their digital currency. And the WEF appear to control most of the political class.

Yes I know it's an insane thought. But the Davos crowd are lunatics.
Neal 452 posts, incept 2014-01-09
2023-12-26 09:03:05

2 points Id like you to take a bet on. Will 2024 be a good year or a disaster for both Amazon and Tesla and how will Elon be viewed in a years time?
For years Ive read that they are both a zero but they are still here and still growing. Right this minute Im doing a shift on an Amazon data cloud site that is tripling in size.
Also you have an easy pitch with sub 4 rate cuts, I think that is a given. Now a hard pitch will be what are the odds of a higher rate at the end of 2024 compared to now.
And your batting average has been pretty good so far.
Dingleberry 912 posts, incept 2011-11-06
2023-12-26 09:03:05

I always look forward the annual Tickerdamus prognostications.

You should give yourself two points for the jabs..the scams related to same have been so discredited that even the karens are not running their mouths anymore, which is akin to them holding their breath till they turn blue. Do not expect any contrition or atonement from them. These demons are psychotically evil. BTW, any discussions about the jabs, masks, etc. over holiday dinner? That's what I thought.

Houses and cars: I dunno. I see house price cuts even around me (every hot area)...but there are cuts.....and then there are "cuts". Prices doubling and then going down a few grand may be a start.....spring will be the tell. The rent is still too damn high!!

Cars: same thing, for vehicles that people actually want (trucks and SUVs). Prices are still incredibly high, despite coming down a bit, if at all. EVs (even new ones) are headed for the landfill thank God...great call on that one. Once again the karen is being exposed as a complete hypocrite when the rubber meets the road (pun intended). Many dealers are refusing to sell these EV frauds. So you lefties on the coasts and in the cities....I'll wave to you as I drive by your charging station, and give you a belch from my ICE.

Stock market: logic and reason have left the building. So has truth and honesty in terms of financial numbers by the Fed/BLS. That, combined with massive amounts of passive investing ("stocks are not that risky due to the Fed put")......don't be surprised if we make new nominal highs. Especially if You Crane gets settled, which should have happened already, but won't until the last blood-stained dime can be made by the MIC. And rates rising dramatically in an election year?......I'll take the under on that. Rates will be closer to 4% than 7%. Now the rates you will pay for a mortgage or a car on the other hand.....

Illegals: more of the same. Get ready for your new neighbors. Brush up on your Spanish, Chinese and/or various African dialects. Neither party wants to end it, too much cheap labor, illegal votes, etc. Blacks, muslims, karens and others in the hood will still vote blue no matter who, almost exclusively. You'll see. I have intimate experience in this area. Massacres in Gaza or having to share their gibs notwithstanding. They aren't called "gimmedats" for nuthin'. Not to mention it's election time and we all know what that means: "waycism!!!" and "muh abortions!" will become de facto national security issues (judging by the leftist media hype).....until the election is over. Rinse, wash, repeat every 2-4 years.

RFK will lose steam (c'mon man---this is the DNC we are talking about here)......and it will be Brandon vs Trump 2.0.

Nickdanger 2k posts, incept 2011-06-12
2023-12-26 09:17:33

I always look forward to your year end wrap up and predictions for the coming year. 2024 is shaping up to be very interesting at the least!

-- I'm in the control group

-- In life, it's important to know when to stop arguing with people and simply let them be wrong.
Ewtnewbie2 338 posts, incept 2021-09-13
2023-12-26 10:09:40

We looked at vehicles back in the spring. I know, but you cannot control a person who WANTS a new car, rather than using logic and reason regarding the ability to buy that car when they are plentiful. Living in Scottsdale, there are Teslas EVERYWHERE. The neighbor across the street has TWO. I've said from the beginning, if I'm going to get an EV, it is going to be a true hybrid: ICE and EV combined. The BMW X5 has just such a vehicle and my wife approves the platform, so therefore we bought one. While I would love to have a little more battery power packed into it (24 kWh capacity), it will get us to and from most of our local destinations including church about 10 miles away (uphill). No range anxiety, as the car will flip over to ICE when the battery is low, and you can choose to run electric only if staying local (which we do often). I'm much happier with THIS way of going EV, than full on retard electric only.

If everything goes right, I'll be selling my business in the next few weeks. Then I can be a free agent and work closer to home, work less hours, and play more golf.

I too always look forward to this end-of-year post, and I thank you Karl for sharing it with us.
Twainfan2 1k posts, incept 2018-12-04
2023-12-26 10:09:55

One thing is for certain, they will play every game and trick they know to keep the wheels on the bus until after the election. They will do whatever it takes to make Biden and the Democrats look good. I doubt if will work though because of the illegals issue. They may be able to put off a recession, at least officially, but it may come anyway.
Tickerguy 202k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-12-26 10:10:39

@Twainfan2 The last two really BIG blow-ups (00 and 08) were both during election years.

Why do people keep believing in that bullshit?

"Perhaps you can keep things together and advance playing DIE games.
Or perhaps the truth is that white men w/IQs >= 115 or so built all of it and without us it will collapse."
Ronniemcghee 569 posts, incept 2012-07-28
2023-12-26 10:22:31

Best wishes to everyone for a prosperous 2024 and with that ~

1. A political figure gets shot and opportunists try to take political advantage.
2. Something militarily happens overseas and the USA takes a ruthless punch to the face resulting in calls for a draft although a formal one won't be put into effect.
3. There will be exactly two rate cuts which will happen due to fears of a rise in unemployment in an election year.
4. Election results will be contested violently to the point of making J6 look like a Kindergarten Field Trip.
5. A record number of auto dealers will fold up their tents.
6. Clashes between identifiable religious groups will escalate and make headlines.
7. The true impact of unfettered immigration will come home to roost in the form of certain groups attempting to disrupt the election; sleeper cells who crossed illegally will be used to describe these events.
8. Current median home prices remain sticky.
9. Powell and Yellen will claim no recession and this will be echoed by MSM in an effort to influence the election; Bidenomics will continue to be heralded.
10. Current unemployment number remains sticky.
11. Biden will not be the on the ballet.
12. There will be a CR.
13. Republicans will retake the Senate by a very slim margin.
14. Market-Ticker.Org will set a record for website visits.

Nothing like Sake to get the creative juices flowing!
Bluto 3k posts, incept 2021-07-10
2023-12-26 10:42:34

More wishful thinking than a prediction here, but here goes:

Republican voters come to their senses and finally reject the perennial loser Trump. DeSantis wins Iowa. Haley wins New Hampshire. DeSantis wins the nomination, and picks Kim Reynolds as VP.

Democrats panic over potential for a landslide loss, and in an attempt to salvage the election by defending the "blue wall", select Whitmer/Jeffries as their candidates. Biden pardons Trump as an "October surprise" to take off the table something hard-core Trump voters care about. The strategy works. The Democrats win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and barely win Wisconsin. They also manage to narrowly keep the House.

Republicans flip Nevada and Montana to win the Senate.

DeSantis flips Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.

BUT, DeSantis also flips the 2nd congressional district of Nebraska. Trump won that in 2016, but lost in 2020. Electoral College is tied at 269-269. It goes to the House (remember, under this circumstance, they vote by state), where DeSantis wins.

".... Resist the devil, and he will flee from you" -- James 4:7
Evergreen 419 posts, incept 2021-12-26
2023-12-26 11:21:52

Trump's not a perennial loser. It's fashionable to trash him in some circles, but Trump is the mortar that holds the stones together. Mortar has its purpose, but don't confuse it with stone.
Veeger 2k posts, incept 2013-02-13
2023-12-26 11:22:03


Very good. No disagreements. Make sure you keep this list written down someplace.

I remember the Diamond Princess.

Slowly at first, then all of a sudden.
Jesjohn94 1k posts, incept 2019-05-07
2023-12-26 11:22:22

The jibby jab is continuing to kill and yet every so called free country is encouraging its use and all the global alphabet agencies say it's safe and effective. I don't think the narrative has changed one bit in any important way. Will those drugs ever be officially recognized as dangerous? I'm starting to think that will never happen.

The stock market is where I struggle. What is it really worth? S&P went up 25% this year. An intra-year trade 10% down on that doesn't sound like saying the market is heavily overvalued. The market is up 5% in December. If it dropped 10% January 2nd would that be a buying opportunity? We are probably going to continue to see an AI boom in stocks even though I don't see anything amazing happening with AI that will improve our lives.
Ingar 763 posts, incept 2017-02-14
2023-12-26 11:28:32

No, the Middle east conflict will not be settled. Look how long we kept the Ukraine/Russia conflict going. Ukraine is almost out of bullet catchers and will settle for what Russia wants. Victoria Nuland and Nimrata Haley will have hissy fits. Since the israel lobby owns our whore government, we'll back every atrocity that israel commits and maybe start benjamin netanyahoo's wet dream war with Iran (with the USA doing the heavy lifting there). Maybe our die-verse armed forces aren't up to the task.

Congress had no business calling some of the ivy league presidents to task over free speech. They would not have done so, except that criticism of tribesmen is almost a criminal act in the USA. I'd like to see die-versity end, but it won't do so easily. I doubt that we'll get anything from either branch of the uniparty on illegal immigration except continued lip service.
Invisiblesun 884 posts, incept 2020-04-08
2023-12-26 12:11:57

My prediction for 2024 and beyond: Things will collapse slowly, then suddenly.
Ostriches 355 posts, incept 2009-10-28
2023-12-26 12:19:31

Rats, I was hoping for a meteor falling on DC, a few other globalist capitals, or globalist residences...
Ndp 204 posts, incept 2021-04-21
2023-12-26 12:53:06

Karl, your grading scale is far too harsh for this modern age. Don't you know that everyone gets an A and there can be a dozen valedictorians? Give yourself some bonus points for the predictions that really hit. You should also get some points for good grammar, correct spelling, and appropriate punctuation. Following the modern grading scale, I think you got a hit rate of 22/19. Don't think about that too much; math is hard.

On a serious note, thanks for continuing this annual tradition and for all you do throughout the year.
Thelazer 1k posts, incept 2009-05-11
2023-12-26 12:55:18

I'm expecting for 2024, a repeat of 2023.

Much head banging, teeth mashing and overall silliness about the border.
But nothing gets done about it.

Real estate, the crash will occur in the commercial market, debit can't roll over and a lot of apartment complex's get taken back by the lender.

Residential, more of the same, prices up overall a few drops here and there, but sales come thru. Supply has and is NOT going to catch up to demand in 2024, thus if you want to buy a house, you get what you get and you pay what you pay. Yes you might get 25k off the ask but you won't be getting it for 75% of fire sale pricing anytime soon.

Blue To Red States, that continues.Folks will get out of any state faster than ever in 2024.

Elections, well I don't want to make a call.

Because personally I think it's civil war when on election night 900k ballets drop thru at 2am and "Biden" wins it after being down 10 points at the polls.

Yea I expect it to be so silly, so outright in your face that perhaps a few states decide they don't want to even send there electors down for the final count this time around. Hell even a spaceship Aliens landing on the white house lawn and announcing that Biden has won is on the table in my book.

OR, well Trump wins and we have a JFK repeat on the parade.
Again, civil war.
Boredfree 2k posts, incept 2021-09-15
2023-12-26 14:25:30

Bankruptcy, debt and failure make people feel despondent, sad and powerless.

This is why there are giant homeless camps rather than massive protest.

Until the masses become angry, nothing will change except the number of humans joining the homeless encampments.

If the mssses find their ballsack and become angry, feces find fan blades and a bigger mess is created.

The problem is most people want to point a finger rather than their thumb when dealing with challenges.
Raven 17k posts, incept 2017-06-27
2023-12-26 14:25:54

Karl -- nice piece, well thought out. One minor thing, you meant to say "Disaster".
Nelstomlinson 1k posts, incept 2011-12-21
2023-12-26 14:25:58

If either Trump or Biden wins I do not get the point.

If Biden dies or gets ejected somehow, it comes down to Trump versus ???

How would you score it if Biden is replaced?
Inspectrcalahan 1k posts, incept 2021-01-15
2023-12-26 16:23:23

My 2024 prediction is. (Trumpet fanfare). Same shit ,different day
Abelardlindsey 2k posts, incept 2021-03-26
2023-12-26 16:23:33

@Twainfan2 The last two really BIG blow-ups (00 and 08) were both during election years.

Yep. I remember this as well.

Its all in the mitochondria.

Its the future and...you're not.
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