Yes the claim that 99 percent are unvaccinated is an obvious and blatant lie. And they keep releasing new reports that include deaths from the prior wave. That they are lying about this suggests the truth is not favorable.

But there are degrees of lies. The stuff CNN says is junk, reported hospitalization rates less so, though susceptible to all varieties of confounding factors including positive tests in patients that were admitted for some other reason. Even so we can at least discern some information from observed changes. And even then we can at least grant some credence to what appear to be honest accounts of real people on professionally oriented online forums. That isn't to say something is true because it is said there, but to help us grope and triangulate in the dark towards figuring out what is real.

And based on that: the per capita hospitalization rates are higher than they've ever been among younger cohorts in Florida, corroborated but not nearly confirmed by multiple reports of an increase in young and pediatric cases that are severe on places like r/nursing.

I scoured through that forum and amidst a number of nurses reporting seeing lots of unvaccinated patients (unsurprisingly, in very unvaccinated areas) the only proper numerical estimate shared was an estimate that 30-40 percent were vaccinated. It shouldn't surprise any of us that the only precise estimate was something dramatically different than what is usually reported.

What leads to my dilemma is that if a substantial portion of cases are vaccinated, and overall severe cases are up per capita -- dramatically so among younger people -- that suggests not just vaccine failure but actually enhanced disease. Which is possible, but just something I would have assigned a relatively low prior probability this early on.

@Chromehill. Yeah Novavax is approximately: (1) give something that looks like J&J to moths and lab harvest from them spike protein that is produced as a result, (2) give that to humans with a more traditional adjuvant. It is still bad in that the spike protein is bad, but seems that adverse reactions are a lot less common and the fact that it doesn't actually cause your body to manufacture spike is reassuring.