The false positive rate tracks the actual rate of infections, times some multiple.
It's environmental debris that's being picked up. Whether in the lab (which is NOT an isolation-quality lab; if you think that is the case for commercial labs you're fucking nuts; they're cheaply run, high-volume enterprises that have less control over the environment than your average high-school chem lab) or the environment where the samples are collected does not matter.
There was in fact VERY LITTLE real virus in the summer. Duh -- it's a respiratory virus. Now it's more-prevalent. But the test numbers that, if true, proved suppression are now falsified. Well?
There is only one REASONABLE hypothesis -- the positive numbers are complete bullshit, and 50% or more of them were in fact false.
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"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."
I guess I'm confused how the test numbers ever proved suppression though, given we don't know what the actual cross immunity rate is for the general population at large.
I've seen some evidence that some groups have a higher immunity rate than others, but other groups that have just gotten their asses handed to them by Rona such as minorities in prison (no surprise there with a lack of sun and vitamin d), but even still, San Quentin had like 100 hospitalizations and like 36 deaths out of a population of 3600.
I guess what I am driving at is how can we gauge what the actual suppression rate is supposed to be? We can assume in a world where all things are equal and all people are equally susceptible, but as soon as you get in to demographics and locales any estimations go to hell.
@Expat_tom -- suppression is a mathematical function. If you have a virus with an R0 of 2.5 then suppression is at 60% resistance. How you get resistance (infection, vaccination or pre-existing cross-reaction) does not matter. What matters is that once you get there the average person who gets it will not manage to infect another host, thus there is no exponential spread that will occur. That does NOT mean nobody will get it -- it simply means that it's like the flu, where there will be clusters here and there but the entire fucking town doesn't wind up in the hospital at once.
The formula is 1 - 1/R0 -- it's basic epidemiology. R0 is the theoretical transmission expansion in a 100% susceptible population. It is never actually realized because as soon as the first person gets the bug the population is no longer 100% susceptible. But -- because of how exponents work meaningful suppression does not start to show up until you're about halfway to the suppression rate, wherever it is.
Susceptibility is not a variable -- you either have antibodies or T-cell resistance or you do not -- but OUTCOME is.
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"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."
Yeah I get that, I just mean that I any attempt to project suppression on a forward basis with the unknown variables is not possible. There is of course an upper bound assuming 100% communicability and susceptibility but since we know we are not dealing with that, there is no reasonable way that can be done, even assuming 100% accurate testing.
Sure, you can identify when suppression happened when you look back if a long enough time has gone by after you've started to see a decline, then it is reasonable to assume that you've hit suppression because the distance between waves is such that even taking in to account seasonal variation, if there was still susceptibility you would have had further widespread waves.
The only other way we are going to be able to identify it is with widespread serological testing, but if the tests we are using for determining infection are completely broken, I would be hesitant to put any faith at all in antibody tests as well at this point.
If we can't rely on the PCR testing to be at least reasonably accurate, we're screwed. And those "efficacy" numbers Pfizer is touting become even more questionable.
I sure hope they only counted someone as coming down with the disease if they both had symptoms and had a positive PCR test. And even if that is the case, as Karl pointed out, you could have some folks who were false positives and got sick, with a flu like illness that was NOT Covid, yet got counted as such in the study.
Completely way off topic but of the up most importance to me and my granddaughter and I think to our nation. I think you did a podcast, and I think you did a full topic about this election we are going through right now. I will go back and review, I just wanted to bring it up in your latest writing.
So how to start: My 14 granddaughter is thinking thoughts that are what I believe to be admirable and astounding for her young mind. She came to me yesterday and we talked about what could be a peaceful resolution to this election and the division we face in this country now , this makes me proud of her but at the same sad that she at 14 needs to worry about it. I tell her to let the adults handle this until she is 18, but her thoughts are her thoughts. I must admit I do try to help form her thoughts based on our way of life (God, individually, hard work, truth, facts, 2 + 2 does =4, property, etc.) evolving around our Constitutional republic (especially the Bill of rights) and what the founders only concern was defining how to achieve life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness for a person. She does love Trump. She would not fully understand why Trump has failed to haul in the medical industrial complex so Ill leave it at that.
*** Anyways she draws out a map on her laptop and shows me how the country can and maybe should split in two to avoid a violent end to what might possibly come. She thinks the country should separate and have common things for both separate countries***. I tell her I am not sure it can be done but I will try to find out. She is getting the low down on socialism/marxism/communism/ collectivism the whole gambit.
Something else she thought of was having the losing candidate serve as VP, must of read early history, surprised me.I knew about it.
I have talk to her about your website and let her read things about certain topics you publish. She knows about your book ( probably a difficult read for her now) and the food pyramid, HFLC, and all your fantastic material on COVID-19, she knows the insanity going on because I let her know by the knowledge I gain from you on it. I do try to keep her away from the heavy duty stuff. I let her know I have the upmost respect for you and your truth telling site.
She is totally aware of the election and the fraud that is taking place. She is on social media as you would expect (tik-tok, twitter, etc.) and discusses (argues) stuff with both sides of the spectrum with kids in her age group (even that spectrum is divided, parents most likely). She is without a doubt becoming a conservative/Libertarian mind ( not gone to collage yet and is learning online at home but will have to enter high school in class next year) with the constitution and human freedom as her foundation. I told her I would get your thoughts on this subject of separation and I mentioned that if my memory serves me right you have looked at this and wrote about it in the past.
She later asked me if I had written you yet, so i have to ask and fulfill her request or i would feel like crap.
So with that here goes: SEPARATION, TWO COUNTRIES WITH IN OUR SOVEREIGN BORDERS.
? 1. Is it possible ? 2. How could it be done ? 3. Is it a good idea. (seeing what we are currently staring at).
Do you mind delving into this on her behalf, I will relay your thoughts to her.
I have my own question Karl,
Do you believe our constitution is as great a document that has ever been written for freedom of a person?
Thanks for all you do, you are a treasure of thoughts.
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It does not take a majority to prevail... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men.
I still don't think they have the balls to actually cross the red line.
Yeah, I'll take the other side of that.
They have already turned this from a (real) "we don't know what this is, so we need to have a two week shut down so we don't overwhelm our hospitals" into a bullshit 10 month lockdown.
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Molon Labe Where is Henry Bowman when you need him? How many are willing to pledge this? We mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor
Secession or separation in one form or another has been an interest of mine since the mid 1990s, after the OJ Simpson trial. My first thought was why not just kick California out of the union?
But it will never happen as long as most of the Baby Boomers are alive and are a large voting block. They will never support it out of fear of losing their Social Security and Medicare benefits, both Federal programs.
But in twenty years, yes I think a breakup becomes likely.
@TG...PCR is unfit as a diagnostic... ... this is so true and may I share this peer reviewed study / paper... lengthy read ... identifies 10 major flaws of the PCR... also, Karl, TY so much for the paper you wrote and provided in this forum... I have shared with all my contacts... https://cormandrostenreview.com/report/
The FDA published a guidebook for PCR testing of COVID-19, marked for emergency use only. The title of the publication is: CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, and was initiallypublished in February, 2020, and then re-published in July.
On page 42 of that document it says this:
Since NO quantified virus isolates of the 2019-nCoV were available for CDC use at the time the test was developed and this study conducted, assays designed for detection of the 2019-nCoV RNA were tested with characterized stocks of in vitro transcribed full-length RNA of known titer spiked into a diluent consisting of a suspension of human A549 cells and viral transport medium (VTM) to mimic clinical specimen.
There was still no isolate of the virus months after a pandemic was announced. All laboratories are relying on a provided snippet of RNA genetic material that mimics or is very closely related to COVID-19.
On page 40 of that FDA publication it says this:
Results are for the identification of SARS-CoV-2 RNA (COVID-19). SARS-CoV-2 RNA is generally detectable in upper and lower respiratory specimens during infection. Positive results are indicative of active infection with SARS-CoV-2 but DO NOT rule out bacterial infection or co-infection with other viruses. The agent detected may NOT be the definite cause of disease. Detection of viral RNA may NOT indicate the presence of infectious virus or that 2019-nCoV is the causative agent for clinical symptoms.
It's all fraud and BS. The researchers didn't possess 'the virus' isolates as of July. No indication they have them now. The 'virus' wasn't even quantified as of July. How can one measure any facet of an pathogen if one can't quantify it??
Thanks for taking the time to prepare that paper. It sums up the situation very well.
It adds up to a deliberate attack on the people all over the world. This is not the result of incompetence. The media, government officials, the healthcare system, and many corporations are working together to terrorize the people. I have no doubt the vaccines are a scam even more dangerous than the tests and the masks.
They are using RT-PCR machines and therefore know which Cycle the sample crossed threshold. It could be reported.
Don't worry about whether they had full length RNA for testing. The RNA is transcribed to DNA first, takes a special enzyme as this is not a natural process. Then a DNA primer, a short length of DNA, ligates to the DNA under test. Anything excess to the length of the primer doesn't really matter in the process. Those particular bases, in order, are all that matters. We make positive reference DNA for the tests. The primers are all purchased from IDT (now owned by Danaher), you can see it in the BOM for the test protocols.
Karl is perfectly correct to state that poor lab technique can cross contaminate the samples. The PCR amplification is huge, size of the universe huge. Remember the PCR only confirms the presence of the RNA that matches the primer, not the full 30k length of the Covid. It is like doing a string search for 3 words vs. looking for 2 pages to match exactly.
The researchers will use BLAST to try to ensure there are few false matches to wild DNA.
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Vaccination required? Not if we leave. Now in Florida, heart rate dropping, nicer people
Kate Brown and company should be among the first to experience consequences of communism/totalitarianism.
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Molon Labe Where is Henry Bowman when you need him? How many are willing to pledge this? We mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor
Note that serological testing is uncommon however; it is NOT being done as a follow-up on a routine basis, nor is it being done on a survey basis anywhere in the US and hasn't been since roughly June.
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"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."
I suppose TPTB are afraid of the truth getting out?
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Molon Labe Where is Henry Bowman when you need him? How many are willing to pledge this? We mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor
A finger-stick linear flow test costs $2 in moderate volume. A PCR test costs $100. So for another $2 you'd have CONCLUSIVE proof two weeks later if the "positive" was real.
They know damn well what doing those follow-ups would prove; there is exactly ZERO reason not to provide that follow-up as part of every single positive result EXCEPT that two weeks later the County and State health folks get sued INSTANTLY for false arrest if in fact the results ARE false.
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"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."
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