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User Info Demographics Is Destiny; entered at 2023-11-07 17:25:52
Tickerguy
Posts: 203997
Registered: 2007-06-26
But again @Eventhorizon you just made my original point for me.

There aren't enough people in said rural areas to move the needle, and by definition won't be.

EVERYONE thinks this is a "personal" issue. Nope.
It's a SOCIETAL issue and, ultimately a math problem.

Chicago Lakeview; 3/2 townhouse, $150/mo HOA fee, NINE GRAND in property taxes a YEAR, $500,000 to buy it.

You need $100 large in down payment to buy it with 20% down and $4k/month, with a $1,100 of that in insurance, HOA and property taxes.

That means with no kid expenses you need $150k of income to be able to carry that assuming no car notes or similar (which you might be able to pull off with this specific place, using public transit which is good in that particular area.) This is in an area where until you get to high school the schools are not bad -- then they're 4/10 and you're fucked unless you put another $10k+ per kid on the bill EVERY YEAR for tuition.

You're not doing that place with even ONE child unless you gross $200,000. No way. You WILL get behind the ball and be fucked. Guaranteed. The median household income in Chicago is $67,000; you can't even pay the fucking mortgage, insurance, HOA fees and power/light/heat bill with anything more than Ramen on the table -- your one-car garage is empty as you can't have one with what's left, even if you buy clunkers!

That's "urban reality" today. Think you're doing better to go out to Libertyville, for example, which is a LONG fucking commuter train ride in. Yes, the house is now only $350, but the property taxes are still $7,300! The only upside is that the public schools are actually good all the way through, but by God do you pay for it.

By the way those property taxes have gone up $1,300 a year in the last four years! What do you think you'll be ten years from now right about when that kid goes into Middle School? Want to know the history generally? There are decent odds they will have doubled.

The same shit happened where I grew up; suburban, and the property tax increases destroyed ALL value improvement in the place my parents bought after I was an adult over the space of about 20 years. Same basic problem -- $7,000 a year, EVERY YEAR, and that was a modest 3/2 house, nothing special at all! In inflation-adjusted funds buying that place was a FUCKING DISASTER; it was in fact a HUGE net loss.

Yes, you can go out in the middle of some place, find some land and a modest place and not get it up the ass and then have kids. Works. But the vast majority people don't live in such a place (and if they did it would be a big city and the same problems with cost would show up) -- which is my point.

It is NOT that you can't choose, as a person, to do this. You can.

It is that there aren't enough people who CAN AND WILL, and if enough people were to do so it wouldn't be rural anymore and the cost-ramp would attach, destroying the capacity to do it in that place as well.
2023-11-07 17:25:52