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Uh, That's Not A Conspiracy Theory; entered at 2021-11-06 06:55:14

Tourist
Posts: 5
Registered: 2021-11-06

Taking another viewpoint to this data:

We are going to look at VAERS data, through time, looking for each VAX_LOT:

 * First VAERS_ID & RECVDATE
 * Last VAERS_ID & RECVDATE
 * Total VAERS_ID
 * First & Last Seen "Download Date" [VAERS Local Download Data File Date]

To do so, I am running a program that goes through local VAERS downloaded data from [YYYYMMDD]:

For each downloaded VAERS data, the program processes the files:

 * 2020VAERSDATA.csv
 * 2020VAERSVAX.csv
 * 2021VAERSDATA.csv
 * 2021VAERSVAX.csv

For each file, the program processes every VAERS report that has a "VAX_TYPE" == "COVID19":

 * Extract Manufacturer
 * Extract VAX_LOT(s)
  * Minimal VAX_LOT Sanitization
  *  + Detect "UNKNOWNS" [RegEx: (?i)(UNKNOWN|UNKNWN|UNKOWN|UNKNONWN|ILLEGIBLE|PUBLIC|NOT\s)]
  *  + Detect "0000****" [RegEx: ^([0]\s*){4,}$]
      >>> IF UNKNOWN RETURN "UNKNOWN"
  * Minimal VAX_LOT Extraction
  *  + Find Multiple "VAX_LOT" [RegEx: ^(?i)(\S{4,})\s*(AND|OR|&|\/|,)\s*(\S{4,})$]
  *  + Find Multiple "VAX_LOT" [RegEx: ^(?i)(\S+)\s(\S+)$]
  * Minimal VAX_LOT Validation
  *  + PFIZER  [RegEx: ^(?i)([A-Z]{2}[0-9]{2,4}[A-Z]{0,1})$]
  *  + MODERNA [RegEx: ^(?i)([A-Z0-9]{5,})$]
  *  + JANSSEN [RegEx: ^(?i)([A-Z0-9]{5,})$]
      >>> IF INVALID RETURN "UNKNOWN"
 * Check VAX_LOT discovery "status"
  * ADDED - First time seeing the lot in downloaded VAERS data
   > Set initial VAX_LOT data details
    > VAERS_ID_FIRST      = VAERS_ID_LAST   = VAERS_ID
    > VAERS_DATE_FIRST    = VAERS_DATE_LAST = RECVDATE
    > VAERS_IDS_TOTAL     = 1
    > DOWNLOAD_DATE_FIRST = DOWNLOAD_DATE_LAST = Downloaded VAERS Data Date
  * UPDATED - Seeing a known lot in downloaded VAERS data
   > Update existing VAX_LOT data details
    > IF VAERS_ID < VAERS_ID_FIRST   >>> VAERS_ID_FIRST   = VAERS_ID
    > IF VAERS_ID > VAERS_ID_LAST    >>> VAERS_ID_LAST    = VAERS_ID
    > IF RECVDATE < VAERS_DATE_FIRST >>> VAERS_DATE_FIRST = RECVDATE
    > IF RECVDATE > VAERS_DATE_LAST  >>> VAERS_DATE_LAST  = RECVDATE
    > DOWNLOAD_DATE_LAST = Downloaded VAERS Data Date

Executing program process:

tourist@deb01:~/play/vaers$ go run discoverVaxLots.go debug

VAERS Discover FOUND Download Data Directories First=[20210616] Last=[20211104] Total=[9]

VAERS Discover LOADING Download Data Directory=[20210616-AllVAERSDataCSVS]
VAERS Discover [20210616] Year 2020 Loading DataFile=[2020VAERS]
VAERS Discover [20210616] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[MODERNA] VaxLots Added=[000192] Updated=[000051] Total=[000192]
VAERS Discover [20210616] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[PFIZER ] VaxLots Added=[000130] Updated=[000048] Total=[000130]
VAERS Discover [20210616] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[UNKNOWN] VaxLots Added=[000001] Updated=[000000] Total=[000001]
VAERS Discover [20210616] Year 2021 Loading DataFile=[2021VAERS]
VAERS Discover [20210616] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[JANSSEN] VaxLots Added=[001070] Updated=[000283] Total=[001070]
VAERS Discover [20210616] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[MODERNA] VaxLots Added=[005185] Updated=[001577] Total=[005377]
VAERS Discover [20210616] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[PFIZER ] VaxLots Added=[001715] Updated=[000735] Total=[001845]
VAERS Discover [20210616] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[UNKNOWN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[000001]

VAERS Discover LOADING Download Data Directory=[20210618-AllVAERSDataCSVS]
VAERS Discover [20210618] Year 2020 Loading DataFile=[2020VAERS]
VAERS Discover [20210618] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[JANSSEN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[001070]
VAERS Discover [20210618] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[MODERNA] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[005377]
VAERS Discover [20210618] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[PFIZER ] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[001845]
VAERS Discover [20210618] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[UNKNOWN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[000001]
VAERS Discover [20210618] Year 2021 Loading DataFile=[2021VAERS]
VAERS Discover [20210618] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[JANSSEN] VaxLots Added=[000032] Updated=[000050] Total=[001102]
VAERS Discover [20210618] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[MODERNA] VaxLots Added=[000387] Updated=[000475] Total=[005764]
VAERS Discover [20210618] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[PFIZER ] VaxLots Added=[000166] Updated=[000259] Total=[002011]
VAERS Discover [20210618] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[UNKNOWN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[000001]

VAERS Discover LOADING Download Data Directory=[20210711-AllVAERSDataCSVS]
VAERS Discover [20210711] Year 2020 Loading DataFile=[2020VAERS]
VAERS Discover [20210711] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[JANSSEN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[001102]
VAERS Discover [20210711] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[MODERNA] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[005764]
VAERS Discover [20210711] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[PFIZER ] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000001] Total=[002011]
VAERS Discover [20210711] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[UNKNOWN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[000001]
VAERS Discover [20210711] Year 2021 Loading DataFile=[2021VAERS]
VAERS Discover [20210711] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[JANSSEN] VaxLots Added=[000088] Updated=[000091] Total=[001190]
VAERS Discover [20210711] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[MODERNA] VaxLots Added=[000673] Updated=[000711] Total=[006437]
VAERS Discover [20210711] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[PFIZER ] VaxLots Added=[000329] Updated=[000436] Total=[002340]
VAERS Discover [20210711] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[UNKNOWN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[000001]

VAERS Discover LOADING Download Data Directory=[20210716-AllVAERSDataCSVS]
VAERS Discover [20210716] Year 2020 Loading DataFile=[2020VAERS]
VAERS Discover [20210716] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[JANSSEN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[001190]
VAERS Discover [20210716] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[MODERNA] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[006437]
VAERS Discover [20210716] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[PFIZER ] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[002340]
VAERS Discover [20210716] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[UNKNOWN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[000001]
VAERS Discover [20210716] Year 2021 Loading DataFile=[2021VAERS]
VAERS Discover [20210716] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[JANSSEN] VaxLots Added=[000019] Updated=[000045] Total=[001209]
VAERS Discover [20210716] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[MODERNA] VaxLots Added=[000073] Updated=[000207] Total=[006510]
VAERS Discover [20210716] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[PFIZER ] VaxLots Added=[000035] Updated=[000154] Total=[002375]
VAERS Discover [20210716] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[UNKNOWN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[000001]

VAERS Discover LOADING Download Data Directory=[20210723-AllVAERSDataCSVS]
VAERS Discover [20210723] Year 2020 Loading DataFile=[2020VAERS]
VAERS Discover [20210723] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[JANSSEN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[001209]
VAERS Discover [20210723] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[MODERNA] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[006510]
VAERS Discover [20210723] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[PFIZER ] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[002375]
VAERS Discover [20210723] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[UNKNOWN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[000001]
VAERS Discover [20210723] Year 2021 Loading DataFile=[2021VAERS]
VAERS Discover [20210723] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[JANSSEN] VaxLots Added=[000031] Updated=[000053] Total=[001240]
VAERS Discover [20210723] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[MODERNA] VaxLots Added=[000084] Updated=[000236] Total=[006594]
VAERS Discover [20210723] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[PFIZER ] VaxLots Added=[000053] Updated=[000162] Total=[002428]
VAERS Discover [20210723] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[UNKNOWN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000001] Total=[000001]

VAERS Discover LOADING Download Data Directory=[20210730-AllVAERSDataCSVS]
VAERS Discover [20210730] Year 2020 Loading DataFile=[2020VAERS]
VAERS Discover [20210730] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[JANSSEN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[001240]
VAERS Discover [20210730] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[MODERNA] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[006594]
VAERS Discover [20210730] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[PFIZER ] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[002428]
VAERS Discover [20210730] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[UNKNOWN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[000001]
VAERS Discover [20210730] Year 2021 Loading DataFile=[2021VAERS]
VAERS Discover [20210730] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[JANSSEN] VaxLots Added=[000019] Updated=[000064] Total=[001259]
VAERS Discover [20210730] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[MODERNA] VaxLots Added=[000098] Updated=[000233] Total=[006692]
VAERS Discover [20210730] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[PFIZER ] VaxLots Added=[000068] Updated=[000185] Total=[002496]
VAERS Discover [20210730] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[UNKNOWN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[000001]

VAERS Discover LOADING Download Data Directory=[20210808-AllVAERSDataCSVS]
VAERS Discover [20210808] Year 2020 Loading DataFile=[2020VAERS]
VAERS Discover [20210808] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[JANSSEN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[001259]
VAERS Discover [20210808] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[MODERNA] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[006692]
VAERS Discover [20210808] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[PFIZER ] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[002496]
VAERS Discover [20210808] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[UNKNOWN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[000001]
VAERS Discover [20210808] Year 2021 Loading DataFile=[2021VAERS]
VAERS Discover [20210808] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[JANSSEN] VaxLots Added=[000017] Updated=[000055] Total=[001276]
VAERS Discover [20210808] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[MODERNA] VaxLots Added=[000086] Updated=[000233] Total=[006778]
VAERS Discover [20210808] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[PFIZER ] VaxLots Added=[000053] Updated=[000175] Total=[002549]
VAERS Discover [20210808] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[UNKNOWN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[000001]

VAERS Discover LOADING Download Data Directory=[20210813-AllVAERSDataCSVS]
VAERS Discover [20210813] Year 2020 Loading DataFile=[2020VAERS]
VAERS Discover [20210813] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[JANSSEN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[001276]
VAERS Discover [20210813] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[MODERNA] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[006778]
VAERS Discover [20210813] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[PFIZER ] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[002549]
VAERS Discover [20210813] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[UNKNOWN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[000001]
VAERS Discover [20210813] Year 2021 Loading DataFile=[2021VAERS]
VAERS Discover [20210813] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[JANSSEN] VaxLots Added=[000022] Updated=[000048] Total=[001298]
VAERS Discover [20210813] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[MODERNA] VaxLots Added=[000077] Updated=[000270] Total=[006855]
VAERS Discover [20210813] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[PFIZER ] VaxLots Added=[000065] Updated=[000160] Total=[002614]
VAERS Discover [20210813] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[UNKNOWN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[000001]

VAERS Discover LOADING Download Data Directory=[20211104-AllVAERSDataCSVS]
VAERS Discover [20211104] Year 2020 Loading DataFile=[2020VAERS]
VAERS Discover [20211104] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[JANSSEN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[001298]
VAERS Discover [20211104] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[MODERNA] VaxLots Added=[000001] Updated=[000008] Total=[006856]
VAERS Discover [20211104] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[PFIZER ] VaxLots Added=[000001] Updated=[000006] Total=[002615]
VAERS Discover [20211104] Year 2020 Loaded Manufacturer=[UNKNOWN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[000001]
VAERS Discover [20211104] Year 2021 Loading DataFile=[2021VAERS]
VAERS Discover [20211104] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[JANSSEN] VaxLots Added=[000250] Updated=[000204] Total=[001548]
VAERS Discover [20211104] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[MODERNA] VaxLots Added=[002757] Updated=[002180] Total=[009613]
VAERS Discover [20211104] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[PFIZER ] VaxLots Added=[000774] Updated=[000835] Total=[003389]
VAERS Discover [20211104] Year 2021 Loaded Manufacturer=[UNKNOWN] VaxLots Added=[000000] Updated=[000000] Total=[000001]

VAERS Discover GLOBAL Loaded Manufacturer=[PFIZER ] VaxLots=[003389]
VAERS Discover GLOBAL Loaded Manufacturer=[UNKNOWN] VaxLots=[000001]
VAERS Discover GLOBAL Loaded Manufacturer=[JANSSEN] VaxLots=[001548]
VAERS Discover GLOBAL Loaded Manufacturer=[MODERNA] VaxLots=[009613]

Inspecting the outputted CSV result file, we observe the following results:

VAX_MANU	VAX_LOT	VAERS_IDS_TOTAL	VAERS_ID_FIRST	VAERS_ID_LAST	VAERS_DATE_FIRST	VAERS_DATE_LAST
PFIZER	UNKNOWN	106469	902440	1807593	2020-12-15	2021-10-22
MODERNA	UNKNOWN	103159	896636	1807569	2020-11-14	2021-10-22
JANSSEN	UNKNOWN	20568	1067448	1807590	2021-03-02	2021-10-22
MODERNA	039K20A	5171	907032	1804742	2020-12-22	2021-10-21
MODERNA	026L20A	4430	908442	1807440	2020-12-24	2021-10-22
MODERNA	011J20A	4358	906315	1790695	2020-12-22	2021-10-16
PFIZER	EK5730	4030	902514	1800943	2020-12-15	2021-10-20
PFIZER	EK9231	3739	907193	1806180	2020-12-23	2021-10-21
PFIZER	EH9899	3575	902418	1804805	2020-12-15	2021-10-21
PFIZER	ER2613	3317	1105060	1804693	2021-03-16	2021-10-21
MODERNA	025L20A	3261	907847	1807447	2020-12-23	2021-10-22
MODERNA	013L20A	3190	932522	1800479	2021-01-10	2021-10-20
MODERNA	012L20A	3057	914680	1804741	2020-12-30	2021-10-21
MODERNA	037K20A	2906	907976	1804530	2020-12-23	2021-10-21
PFIZER	EN6201	2884	1009870	1806170	2021-02-05	2021-10-21
PFIZER	EJ1685	2817	902518	1798503	2020-12-15	2021-10-19
PFIZER	EN5318	2808	966956	1807509	2021-01-22	2021-10-22
MODERNA	011L20A	2791	911671	1804559	2020-12-29	2021-10-21
MODERNA	029L20A	2785	941960	1806181	2021-01-13	2021-10-21
PFIZER	EN6205	2721	1054006	1807482	2021-02-25	2021-10-22
PFIZER	EL1284	2716	905848	1807519	2020-12-21	2021-10-22
MODERNA	041L20A	2709	927257	1803560	2021-01-07	2021-10-21
PFIZER	EN6208	2648	1084470	1804727	2021-03-09	2021-10-21
MODERNA	028L20A	2645	941674	1804781	2021-01-13	2021-10-21
PFIZER	ER8732	2608	1120600	1804569	2021-03-21	2021-10-21
PFIZER	ER8733	2605	1128603	1804453	2021-03-24	2021-10-21
MODERNA	030L20A	2593	943684	1804038	2021-01-14	2021-10-21
PFIZER	EL3247	2577	935727	1801792	2021-01-11	2021-10-20
PFIZER	EN6200	2525	1026542	1806165	2021-02-12	2021-10-21
PFIZER	EP6955	2513	1075992	1804399	2021-03-05	2021-10-21
...	...	...	...	...	...	...

Now that is something interesting:
>>> Almost all of theses high VAX_LOT have a VAERS reports with a first RECVDATE between December 2020 and March 2021 ....
>>>>>>> Yet they also all have recent VAERS reports with a last RECVDATE from October 2021?!
>>>>>>>>>>> This would be expected for the "UNKNOWN" lots, but how is that possible for real lots that expire?!

Something is off... I have reveiewed the data/process/results and it seems the program is doing what it's told... although it might be time I go sleep!

Taking the table above the VAERS_ID_LAST from the last row [1804399]
>> A manual verification of the VAERS raw CSV files shows what seems to be a report from a medical professional, indicating VAX-LOT [EP6955] and [EW0153] ...
>>>> However the SYMPTOM_TEXT states something interesting "POSITIVIE COVID TEST 09/02/2021"

From what I see, this viewpoint suggests the following additional possibilities:
- Very long delay VAERS reports processing and "publishing" (aka public access)
- Increase of VAERS reports from early recipients that are now in the hospital from a breakthrough infection
- Increase of VAERS reports from recipients/doctors that have now "realized" the adverse events are real, not that uncommon and now finally reporting them to VAERS

When graphing outputted CSV results file we can see this clearly:

VAX-LOTS TOTAL VAERS-IDS // ORDERED AND AGGREGATED BY // VAX-LOT VAERS-ID FIRST DATE

VAX-LOTS TOTAL VAERS-IDS // ORDERED AND AGGREGATED BY // VAX-LOT VAERS-ID LAST DATE

VAX-LOTS TOTAL VAERS-IDS // ORDERED AND AGGREGATED BY // VAX-LOT VAERS-ID LAST DATE // FILTERED LAST_DATE BEFORE 01.10.2021

Results CSV File: https://pastebin.com/qA72Vm5y

Thoughts?

After reading your report I went back to the data I had downloaded this summer after the tinfoil hat crowds were screaming about 300k deleted VAERS reports [which wasn't exactly so]...
But reviewing the weekly data updates showed that they were adding/updating/deleting reports between 2 weeks and ~10 months after being received!! I imagine this can only be worse now ...

Anyways thank you Karl for your detailed reporting!!!

And this old-school forum!! It's deftinively a blast from the past!!

2021-11-06 06:55:14