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|User Info||On The Ukranian Situation; entered at 2014-02-23 11:44:39|
When it comes to geo-political and military matters I always check Col. Pat Lang's views. He was the former head of all human intelligence at the DIA and has been incredibly prescient on issues from Iraqi WMD (not) to what is really going in Syria.|
he has some excellent analysis with the historical and cultural context in Ukraine. The situation is far more complex with a lot of history that goes back to the dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian empire. During WWII groups in western Ukraine who are descendants of Austrian province of Galicia allied themselves with the Nazis, while the eastern & southern Ukrainians are mostly Russian descendants and speak Russian. The core of the current protest movement are followers of fascist groups from the west of Ukraine. Yanukovich was supported by oligarchs in the east and ran a very corrupt government.
Current Ukraine is an artifact of post-WWII border creation. This is primarily a conflict of people from different regions who have always been in conflict instigated by the great powers. Think conflict between the Serbs, Croats, etc as Yugoslovia broke up. The danger is a civil war with the big powers supporting their proxies in a border country to Russia.