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 Demographics Is Destiny
Eoinw 198 posts, incept 2021-07-14
2023-11-07 08:25:01

Isn't this issue further evidence that the system has run its course? To keep the system going you need more people and more growth, then more again...etc.

Is it not logical to conclude that such a system reaches a point where it is unsustainable? We've certainly reached the point of diminishing returns. Plus the corruption becomes more appalling daily.

Even if everyone listened to TG and we fixed this, do we really want to fix it?

Maybe I'm being naive but my advice to any young person is to move to Russia. I'm sure it has many flaws but at least Russia is trending in the right direction. Given our political class - and the lunatic WEF that runs the West now - our trends are nightmarish.

I agree, especially with the corruption of the medical community. Having kids today is NUTS!
Tickerguy 202k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-11-07 08:32:00

@Starrynight -
Quote:
Can I please ask, what do you make of the big decline in fertility in many East Asian countries in recent decades? Many prosperous countries like S. Korea, Japan, Singapore, etc. have very low fertility rates, some now even less than 1.0, and have for 40 years or more. They had at least as big a decline as China with its One Child Policy, but none of these countries had such a state policy; instead, the decline was voluntary. And yet, during this time in these countries, I think most people could look ahead and expect a bright future. So we see fertility declines both in the US today, where people are demoralized and therefore choose not to have kids, but also in successful economies like 1980s Japan and Korea.

Did they?

Or did they think forward, and conclude the cycle would turn perhaps not within their lifetime, but definitely within their children's?

From difficulty comes industry.
From industry comes abundance.
From abundance comes sloth. <<-- They were here
From sloth comes difficulty.

Abundance would seem to be a one-sided street, but it is not. Where did, for example, Vanderbilt come to believe they could play the Tranny game here in Blood-Red Tennessee? From abundance; that is a private institution and cannot force extraction of tax money.

Yet what did it produce? Sloth, and worse -- coercion (during Covid) and coddling crazy, including a white dude who thought he was female and, prodded by SELF HATRED THEY AND EVERYONE ELSE IMBUED IN HIM, decided to kill a bunch of "cracker kids."

Where did all of this insanity come from? Abundance, ergo, sloth.

The costs and disincentives are the publicly-visible pieces once the sloth takes over; they can't exist outside of the abundance, but if you channeled the abundance by refusing to permit the scams so they went into productive things (e.g. LFTRs) instead of asset price schemes and then asset-STRIPPING you would get neither the sloth OR the crazy -- and, by extension, you would also not lose replacement level birth rates from those who are the most-productive.

There is no magic dirt (a subject of a ticker in queue and which will have to go on the No-Ad side because it would otherwise get me ban-hammered.)

----------
"Perhaps you can keep things together and advance playing DIE games.
Or perhaps the truth is that white men w/IQs >= 115 or so built all of it and without us it will collapse."
Djsnola 379 posts, incept 2009-03-16
2023-11-07 08:44:02

Those constantly calling my generation selfish (Millenial here) are really starting to piss me off. How is it selfish to decide against children in a world where there are better than even odds their lifestyles would be worse than mine? One could argue that it might be the opposite: in fact one might argue its selfish to bring said child into that sort of world. We can have a debate about it all day long, but the incentive structure is screwed up as Karl says. So what if people in my generation decide to engage in treating themselves with some of the extra money (not nearly enough to cover raising good children) they do have as a result of not having children? what are we supposed to do? pay more of it to the generations before who are instrumental in so many issues we see today? Pay for the illegals and others who continually depress wages? I am lucky compared to many but it doesnt mean I am not sympathetic to it. The sad reality is that you cant undo the damage the younger generations are experiencing right away if you even wanted to. Theres no flipping pizzas on the side to help pay college anymore! The disparity between renting and owning has never been greater , at least in recent memory. Sitting online calling us selfish etc because you managed to get yours when the getting was good doesnt make you anything but a jerk. Try having an open mind and by sympathetic to what the younger generations are experiencing here. It's depressing for people that followed the rules of what they were told is the best path forward only to be saddled with ridiculous college debts for degrees that should be attainable for way less than they are; ridiculous energy prices because we think the laws of physics are a suggestion; home prices that are out of reach for even many DINKs now! Meanwhile plenty of people in the prior generations got not only their primary residence for cheap but the lake house or beach house too. I can go on and on!
Flappingeagle 5k posts, incept 2011-04-14
2023-11-07 08:54:43

@Dhsnola: I am a boomer and I agree 100% with your post.

The economy/price structure is so out-of-whack that sensible options are non-existent for many and the younger you are the more this applies.

Flap

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2024. One of Trump or Biden will not be on the ballot in November.
A housing crash will occur.
Interest rates will NOT be lowered more than 1% in total unless a housing crash occurs.
Tickerguy 202k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-11-07 09:01:12

Example: You'd like my daughter to change her mind and produce children.

Fine.

Change the asset price and tax structure so she can, with an average man on one income, own a stable and safe place to live and raise said children, keep the lights on and the heat and water operating, food on the table and decent, serviceable transportation without being rendered penniless by some random asshole if the kid, or she or her partner, has one of the utterly ordinary things happen that have happened to people since the dawn of time, none of which used to impoverish people in that way and all of which was done specifically to make it possible to fuck basically anyone on a random basis at whim of some dickhead in a hospital or doctor's office, never mind some OTHER dickhead whether in government or alleged "private" medical practice demanding she do it to herself OR HER KIDS.

Oh, and while you're at it, start shooting anyone in the head who tries to teach said kids that they're "bad" because they're white -- or actually are the sex that is between their legs.

And oh by the way you have to do this in a form and fashion that makes clear that it will hold for at least the next 20 years, which probably means you're going to have to make clear that anyone who tries to violate that gets shot immediately and all their assets are confiscated from their entire genetic line, no matter who they are politically or otherwise.


You got about another two or three years to do that before she ages out.
Get to it -- and yeah, I know nobody is going to do that.

About ten years ago she asked me if I'd be pissed off if she didn't produce any "grands" for me.
I told her no -- and this was why.

----------
"Perhaps you can keep things together and advance playing DIE games.
Or perhaps the truth is that white men w/IQs >= 115 or so built all of it and without us it will collapse."

Boredfree 2k posts, incept 2021-09-15
2023-11-07 09:04:51

World birthrate decline has multiple inputs.

There is all the money spent by the west to lower birthrates in developing countries. Combine this with the continued exploitation of poor people by businesses and governments, add in local wars and you begin to understand there is a lot of reasons compelling a thinking person to forgo breeding.

In America, we are no longer free to live our best lives but instead are continually challenged by mediocrity. We are allowing ourselves to be brought down by power-hungry politicians, greedy corporations and the ever lowering IQ of our fellow citizens.

We will continue our downward slide until we have a smaller population born with more backbone than the pussies who have given us our covid madness.

Hopefully a few smart people remain alive who will begin the process of civilization again. Maybe in 25,000 years we won't be as stupid.

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The problem is most people want to point a finger rather than their thumb when dealing with challenges.
Veeger 2k posts, incept 2013-02-13
2023-11-07 09:10:46

Quote:

Why should this be the case? It wasn't until roughly the 1970s -- for basically anyone, including very-basic, no-special-skill blue-collar work.


But of course! Deficit spending kicked in pretty much about then!

My only 'disagreement' with your hypothesis comes because I am skeptical that folks are looking ahead 20 years and making a rational decision. While some do, my premise is that the combination of more immediate factors has the same net result. The herd is much more reactionary to things today than they are pro-active for something 20 years out.

Perhaps we're really saying the same thing... whether it's due to 'far-seeing' or to near term knee-jerk reactions, the result and consequences are the same. That it is also self-induced and didn't need to happen is without dispute.

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I remember the Diamond Princess.


Slowly at first, then all of a sudden.
Starrynight 179 posts, incept 2021-11-26
2023-11-07 09:11:54

@Egallred wrote: "Yet, obviously, they still had children. Usually a lot of them. I think Mousetopia is probably a better explanation. Households with two high-wage earners theoretically should have zero problem supporting as many children as they want yet I suspect their fertility rate is significantly lower than the blue collar class."

Why can't @Egallred and @Tickerguy both be right? Rational actors responding to socio-economic-political reality, anticipating life in 20 years, explains a lot, but maybe not everything. Mousetopia also explains a lot. And culture in general. There's a lot that influences our choices.

The thing, @Egallred, is that your examples from history and certain places in the world today are from before birth control was widespread. Historically, even in tough times, people couldn't control their fertility the way they can today, and still today in some parts of the world, people lack access to birth control. What we see is that across virtually culture today, whether in good times or bad, when people have that choice, they very often choose not to have kids.

Starrynight 179 posts, incept 2021-11-26
2023-11-07 09:20:30

The fact is, when people have the choice, most are showing by their choices that they want to severely limit the number of kids they have, no matter their social, economic, or political conditions. In the modern world, children are seen as a cost, not an asset. Most women in the world today don't want to have 10 kids, or even 2.

In the pre-modern world, kids were seen as an asset, not a liability. Not only did people lack the technology to control their fertility, but kids were essential to survival.
Tickerguy 202k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-11-07 09:20:13

Exactly @Starrynight.

But you can't undo technology.

You CAN make the abuse of it to advance scams illegal and enforce the laws that make it so. Which we refuse to do so -- here or anywhere else. As just one example it is ILLEGAL under the PREP Act to coerce anyone to use a "covered countermeasure" OF ANY SORT. Its a CRIME. So why weren't all the ASSHOLES who did it immediately arrested and, if the cops refuse then the people should have fucking shot them in the face.

That 10 year old girl who came trick-or-treating a couple of years ago got fucked because WE did NOT shoot the assholes in the face who tried to SCREW HER. We instead let them do it and even CHEERED IT ON. She does and WILL remember that! Do you think that makes her MORE or LESS likely to set her personal reproductive switch to OFF?

It's also a CRIME in the US to monopolize, restrain trade or price-fix INCLUDING across international borders. Rather than enforce that after the Arab Oil Embargo Congress specifically EXEMPTED them! The NON-EXEMPT actors in the private sector (medical) break this law a million times a day AND it is a 10 year in prison FELONY for each offense. Exactly ZERO people have gone to prison for it.

The NAR just LOST a lawsuit over this. LAWSUIT? Its ten years in the fucking can for pulling that shit so where were the handcuffs? Nowhere.

You literally can't COUNT all these scams and every one of them have screwed the people. Do you think this doesn't go into people's calculus on these matters whether consciously or not? Technology gives people the capacity to CHOOSE whether sexual congress results in children and you can't undo that, so NOW you had better, if you want a stable population, quit demonstrating that the better choice is to set that switch to the OFF position!

----------
"Perhaps you can keep things together and advance playing DIE games.
Or perhaps the truth is that white men w/IQs >= 115 or so built all of it and without us it will collapse."

Fenriswulf 42 posts, incept 2021-10-16
2023-11-07 09:38:18

TG Mrs. Wolf here, Late to the party but before this is a dead thread, wanted to add that what we know about childhood development of the brain and neuroscience backs up your assertion about having a good childhood so one wants kids. It's actually worse than that. We are born with a brain stem and a nub of cells with potential. You must have an involved, competent, consistent adult as 1) a stimulus for every phase of growth, 2) a programmer during that phase and 3) to act as external brain while you literally don't have one, or a functional one up until your early 20's. Growth is exponential up through the 5th year (day care anyone?) but that doesn't mean that up until the end of the teens, one can not cause massive damage through neglect or inconsistency. It just means that the worse damage is likely during the early phase, although a big enough trama during any of the growth can be catastrophic. Divorce is IMO like a grenade to the young brain. I believe my generation (gen X) was the first massively brain damaged generation due to day care, latch key and the pandemic of divorce that swept through like wild fire. I also believe the millennials got it even worse. To the young people today, I am sorry. Our heads were not on straight and it's taken a while to figure that out. Also congratulations to @Doladin.
So what now? Well, we also all know about neuroplasticity and it is presently debated whether or not one can regrow/ rewire in adulthood. Personally I believe there is scientific evidence one can to a large extent, but like with the Coof jab, one has to actually be aware and do the hard work. I certainly have seen wounded people have kids, heal and find joy through that journey. But you can't just look around and say everyone is doing X so X is ok. Sun Tau said In chaos there is opportunity. I believe this generation can take that as a framing as well as demographics is destiny - if one is making the demographics. Could a population bottleneck be an opportunity? It will not be easy, but man needs meaning in life and the good struggle. My grandfather lost his parents at 4, lived in an orphanage through Spanish flu and WWI. Married during the depression and had every right to say f*ck it, but had kids as the world was sucked into WWII. Then stuff got hard, then really good. We are also not omniscient. Things can change over a 5 year or 10 year period that we can not predict. Thing is, I believe we've been in collapse since "hope and change" was a wildly successful campaign theme. I certainly have not seen my country since around that time. Yet here we are drawing breath and putting one foot in front of the other. As much as I hate Clown World, life is quite good.
Boredfree 2k posts, incept 2021-09-15
2023-11-07 10:43:53

I've known I didn't want kids from the age 10. I babysat my younger brothers (5 and 7 years younger) and that experience was enough for me to realize kids are time consuming.

Then high school was full of reasons not to breed: the clickishness of the cool kids, the knucklehead jocks bullying dorks like me, the continual classroom disruptions from ignorant asses, stupid people teaching because it was a job with good benefits. Watching my parent struggle financially and emotionally because they couldn't afford raising three kids.

After high school life didn't make me desire children either. Shitty jobs, expensive gas, expensive homes. By this age I also began to noticed America was full of political corruption. Add to this the Iraq fiasco which GW Bush the elder began and each administration since used as an excuse to spend more and more and more.

Combine all my experiences, add to this me knowing I might enjoy having sexual relations with crazy, but under no circumstances should I breed with crazy.

After being raised and institutionalized (school) by baby bummers during the 70s and 80s, I knew I was crazy and any female who wanted to breed with me would be crazier...

We have enough crazy.

Kids know more about their future desires than adults give them credit for.

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The problem is most people want to point a finger rather than their thumb when dealing with challenges.
Starrynight 179 posts, incept 2021-11-26
2023-11-07 10:44:42

I think it's undeniable in recent decades there's been a "war on the family" that is destroying the social ideal and the personal desire for young people to tie the knot and have kids. Whether it's a coordinated effort to undermine family life or not, you can see a confluence of factors like easy divorce and LGBT normalization that have the effect of destroying the very idea of the family, that sex is connected to reproduction, and the love and commitment that go along with it.

Speaking from personal experience, all of my aunts and uncles got divorced. My parents are the only couple among their brothers and sisters who stayed together. That had a big impact on the kids in my family in my generation: I got a good example of mom and dad staying together through good and bad, while my cousins all were traumatized by their parents' divorces. Only three cousins got married, only two had any kids. I suspect they are afraid of commitment and didn't have a good model of loving parents that they can follow, to even know what true marital love even is.

You know, after the Russian Revolution the Bolsheviks did a social experiment by trying to put the sexual ethics of Marx and Engels into public policy. Easy divorce, easy abortion, state-run childcare, etc. It totally screwed up their society through the 1920s into the 1930s, when Stalin then decided to re-introduce rather conservative sexual morality and family structure. So behind the Iron Curtain, there was a relatively conservative idea of sexuality until 1989. The sexual revolution and feminism of the West didn't occur in the 1960s and 1970s in the communist countries. That's one of the few good things that might be said of life in Eastern Europe during communism!

But the demographic dilemma of today comes down more to technology than anything else. Birth control -- whether condom, pill, sterilization, abortion, or whatever -- gives people the power to decide whether to reproduce, which is unprecedented in history. And as I said above, most people today, when given this choice, don't want a lot of kids, whether they live in rich Seoul or poor Mexico City.

Finally, I would say that pornography could be another factor. The widespread, easy, free availability of pornography may actually diminish peoples' ability to develop healthy, fruitful romantic relationships. Regardless of whether you think porn is immoral, you can see this affect on many people. Real human relationships are too hard, too emotionally messy. Having kids is hard, and expensive. Many people -- not even looking ahead 20 years -- just have a sense that it's too hard.
Dan_e 193 posts, incept 2009-06-23
2023-11-07 10:45:50

I've somewhat jokingly said that any children born in the past 25/30 years ought to be able to sue their parents for the crap life they'll be having. Think that says enough about the chances I would produce any offspring smiley

@Veeger "I am skeptical that folks are looking ahead 20 years and making a rational decision"

I am not sure that it was a 100% rational decision based on looking forward 20 years for me. More a general feeling about where the world would be by the time my kids would be adults and not wanting to make them live through that shit - well that combined with a healthy dose of loathing for screaming kids ;-) Looking at the parents among my family, friends and acquaintances, I still have no regrets I never got any. My line ends with me, and I'm perfectly fine with that. Absolutely no problems finding ways to 'fill my life' either @Sqt
Lizardqueen 5k posts, incept 2008-04-01
2023-11-07 13:46:06

The math didn't work for us even 30 years ago when I was in my peak reproductive years. Jobs here were dicey, husbands job was secure but pay wasn't adequate, 2 incomes were needed to buy a house in a decent school system, and I knew that I did not have the capacity to do two full time jobs (job + motherhood) without becoming a screaming psychotic banshee and failing miserably at both. So, between that and some other personal issues I won't go into, we didn't replicate.

It is even worse now.

It's going to take a collapse and then a reset to where only 1 or maybe 1.5 jobs are required to support a family before smart people start reproducing again. The stupid will continue to crank out multiples as long as they are paid for it, or don't take the effort to prevent it. The movie "Idiocracy" is a documentary.

IMO the biggest sticking point for why people don't reproduce is economic survival. Yeah it sucks raising a kid in a failing society but if you have a total of one parent of two who can DEDICATE themselves to the proper rearing of the child(ren) then you can usually manage it. It is harder but you can homeschool, be involved in church groups, move to a rural area etc and stave off some of the toxic garbage etc.
But once you have both parents working full-time out of the home to make ends meet the kids end up going feral and subject to the non-economic forces that ruins societies. And that includes our current toxic educational system.

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"The closer you get to the drain, the faster you spin."
---some rando on ZeroHedge
Annfan 53 posts, incept 2017-10-28
2023-11-07 13:46:56

Truly amazed at how many here are so down on having children, dont desire grandchildren, or are indifferent to the whole thing. If thats what the smart people are concluding, could that be a contributing factor? Having kids was/is the best thing in my life. It was hard sometimes but I wouldnt trade it for anything and Im grateful for them every single day. I look forward to grandchildren God-willing and will help and contribute in any way I can to continue to try to raise children that could someday make the world a better place. Its never an ideal time to have children and things are never perfect. But no one has a crystal ball and some of you might be surprised at what you could have accomplished.
The future belongs to those who show up. What a very sad state of affairs.
Tickerguy 202k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-11-07 13:48:32

@Annfan -
Quote:
Truly amazed at how many here are so down on having children, dont desire grandchildren, or are indifferent to the whole thing.

Then change the incentives.

Yes, nobody can predict the future.
But we can see the present.

Tell me how you raise children in today's world with one earner, unless you're in the top 0.5% or thereabouts.

You can't, and that's if nothing goes wrong.

Its not about it being "tough", it is about being literally thrown into the street.

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"Perhaps you can keep things together and advance playing DIE games.
Or perhaps the truth is that white men w/IQs >= 115 or so built all of it and without us it will collapse."
Off_grid99 57 posts, incept 2022-02-03
2023-11-07 14:54:47

Anyone else see the acronym DINK and immediately think Vietcong? I had to look up what it means today. Guess I'm showing my background and age. Regardless, my oldest daughter and husband are in the DINK category. Can't say that I blame them.
Metalqueen 500 posts, incept 2021-09-10
2023-11-07 15:11:17

@Tickerguy

I am a little late to this conversation but I loved this story:

Quote:
She had a mask in her hand and asked me (unmasked, handing out candy on the porch -- better than half the houses were dark with the people cowering in fear inside!) "Sir, you're not scared of me?" I told her "Not in the least; my health is my business and, if it fails me that's my issue." Her reply back to me? "Its all bullshit." Realize that she was being force-masked in school here in this county, in a "red state" and county that is so red you're wasting your time running as a Democrat, for nearly two years and the people who did it to her, six years from now when she reaches adulthood, will still not have lost a thing.


Smart kid. The upside for her is that in the future she will likely be able to instantly recognize the bullshit when she sees it. That she will also likely want no part of having kids herself is the real consequence. One commenter in a previous thread mentioned about the "car seat factor" in having only 1 or 2 or no kids. 10-20 years from now I suspect some researcher will be citing the "mask factor" in the cratering birth rates.

As an aside, if I am on a future jury where one of these kids snaps and offs their COVID Karen, mask nazi parents, it will definitely be "jury nullification" time. NOT GUILTY!smiley

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Make smiley building great again!
Abelardlindsey 2k posts, incept 2021-03-26
2023-11-07 16:09:47

I've noticed that baby bust discussions on the internet seem to bring out the worse in people. Vox Day has a response to this that, predictably, does not reply to any of the details of this ticket, but seems to be an emotive rant against boomers in general. He links to another guy, definitely a conspiracy monger (he believes the covid-19 shots were an attempt at depopulation and thinks the same about 5G cellular networks), who seems to have a problem with people making personal life decisions on basis of rational self-interest. The rationals criteria that normal make personal life choices such as opportunity costs,, cost/benefit analysis, risk/reward analysis, is considered to be the wrong way about by these people. This is all rather loopy to me. I wonder if these people's minds are slowly walking off the map.

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Its all in the mitochondria.

Its the future and...you're not.
Djsnola 379 posts, incept 2009-03-16
2023-11-07 16:15:24

@annfann I appreciate your response but I dont think you realize how many have come to this conclusion begrudgingly but still feel its the right decision. The idea that we think of children as a burden is missing the timeline of how these decisions are made. We are choosing to not have them because we simply dont think its feasible and dont see any change in that. If you are struggling or just getting by today, how in the world will that work if you add dependents to that with the cost structure of today?

Spending extra money to stay at some stupid Star Wars themed hotel that cost 4k a night might seem dumb to many (i agree personally) but that still pales in comparison to the costs of raising "GOOD KIDS". The perpetual adolescence diatribes I hear from people of older generations attacking younger, childless adults who go to the Walt Disney and enjoy it are missing the point that its the closest many of these people will ever get to having that experience since they dont and wont have children to bring themselves. These are people who are trying their best to enjoy the bit they do have. Not everyone wants kids, thats true, but you really have to take your rose colored glasses off if you dont get it at this point why the smart choice is against child rearing and thats a horrible thing to admit but its the truth as it stands today.
Tickerguy 202k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-11-07 16:15:10

It never ceases to amaze me when someone says "but just pop out 15 kids!"

Ok, uh, where?
What will they eat?
Where will they sleep?

Lots of costs go up ratably with family unit size, but the real 900lb Gorilla is that the catastrophe risk for any of the members of your family is more-or-less the same, but each person gets one roll. If you make 10 rolls of a d20 you're 10 times more likely to roll at least one "1" than if you make only one roll. That you must inevitably make that roll cannot be changed. Only the consequences of the "1" can be changed on the remaining members of your family unit, but that's an externality that YOU cannot, in all probability, do anything about. Only SOCIETY can do that by (for example) enabling or dismantling medical monopolists.

Likewise society can control whether or not you can reasonably raise a family (of any size) on one income or whether it requires two. That is a sliding scale, but that I might happen to have been fortunate enough to get into the 1% or better group in terms of financial capacity doesn't change the fact that the other 99% of the population is not. Only moving the bar downward enables more people to make that decision on a rational basis.

These are societal choices -- and societal consequences.

----------
"Perhaps you can keep things together and advance playing DIE games.
Or perhaps the truth is that white men w/IQs >= 115 or so built all of it and without us it will collapse."
Eventhorizon 37 posts, incept 2018-05-23
2023-11-07 17:05:12

Looking at the decline in fertility rates across the world in both developed and developing countries suggests causes are mainly global, not country specific. If I had to guess, I would blame a few factors that fit the bill.

1) Urbanization. This is a global trend true in all countries: as people move to cities, they have fewer kids. Usually housing is more expensive and parents lack the support of the extended family (grandparents and retired aunts/uncles that can look after the kids for free). I know first hand that the urbanization during communism in Central European countries led to 1-2 kids on average per family when they transition to urban life. A normal decision, as the only available housing were the 2-3 bedroom apartments in concrete flats:
https://www.gettyimages.com/bot-wall?ret....

2) Helicopter parenting. Parents are far more involved compared to the past. The amount of parenting time per child has increased dramatically in the past 50 years or so. My sister and I joked recently how we rode our bicycles to various extracurricular activities in junior high. I had my own city-wide bus pass when I was 12 and took city buses to go to the electronic club downtown at the local science museum every week when I was in 6th and 7th grade. Nowadays, my nephew is driven everywhere. My sister cannot even contemplate to let my nephew go alone. He's 6'3" in 12th grade and is driven by my sister to martial arts classes.

3) Mass Stockholm syndrome. Despite our prosperity, today's young are subject to a massive assault of soul crushing amount of mostly fake apocalyptic news. We weren't decades ago prior to online news and social media. Have you noticed how EVERYTHING is a crisis these days? Climate crisis, racism crisis, financial crisis (okay, this one is real), energy crisis, housing crisis, job crisis, WW3 crisis, etc. They even tell us we're in the middle of the 4th mass extinction. (or is it 5th?... I lost count by now). 24/7, the vast majority of "news" that reaches us is negative, designed to scary us into submission. The young generations don't even date, anymore, FFS! No wonder they're looking for safe spaces! Like George Carlin said: "Remember, survival is more important than fracking!" (something similar).

So, what's my solution? Simple: Embrace the rural or semi-rural life. In our quaint Midwest town of under 80k souls a young couple can make it. $700/mo rents? Check. Under $200k starter homes? Check. Entry jobs paying $15/hr? Check. All they have to do is stay together, stay clean and drug free, no single parenting, finish high school, and learn some skills with your hands. Just checked: a local plumbing company is hiring entry-level HVAC techs for $28-32/hr. If you learn how to fix things, you can definitely make a good, albeit quaint semi-rural life. And have 2-3 kids. Now, if you want to go to that >2million pop city 100 miles away, pay $150k for private college getting a PhD in journalism until you're 30 only to make $40k afterwards, that's on you.
Tickerguy 202k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-11-07 17:25:52

But again @Eventhorizon you just made my original point for me.

There aren't enough people in said rural areas to move the needle, and by definition won't be.

EVERYONE thinks this is a "personal" issue. Nope.
It's a SOCIETAL issue and, ultimately a math problem.

Chicago Lakeview; 3/2 townhouse, $150/mo HOA fee, NINE GRAND in property taxes a YEAR, $500,000 to buy it.

You need $100 large in down payment to buy it with 20% down and $4k/month, with a $1,100 of that in insurance, HOA and property taxes.

That means with no kid expenses you need $150k of income to be able to carry that assuming no car notes or similar (which you might be able to pull off with this specific place, using public transit which is good in that particular area.) This is in an area where until you get to high school the schools are not bad -- then they're 4/10 and you're fucked unless you put another $10k+ per kid on the bill EVERY YEAR for tuition.

You're not doing that place with even ONE child unless you gross $200,000. No way. You WILL get behind the ball and be fucked. Guaranteed. The median household income in Chicago is $67,000; you can't even pay the fucking mortgage, insurance, HOA fees and power/light/heat bill with anything more than Ramen on the table -- your one-car garage is empty as you can't have one with what's left, even if you buy clunkers!

That's "urban reality" today. Think you're doing better to go out to Libertyville, for example, which is a LONG fucking commuter train ride in. Yes, the house is now only $350, but the property taxes are still $7,300! The only upside is that the public schools are actually good all the way through, but by God do you pay for it.

By the way those property taxes have gone up $1,300 a year in the last four years! What do you think you'll be ten years from now right about when that kid goes into Middle School? Want to know the history generally? There are decent odds they will have doubled.

The same shit happened where I grew up; suburban, and the property tax increases destroyed ALL value improvement in the place my parents bought after I was an adult over the space of about 20 years. Same basic problem -- $7,000 a year, EVERY YEAR, and that was a modest 3/2 house, nothing special at all! In inflation-adjusted funds buying that place was a FUCKING DISASTER; it was in fact a HUGE net loss.

Yes, you can go out in the middle of some place, find some land and a modest place and not get it up the ass and then have kids. Works. But the vast majority people don't live in such a place (and if they did it would be a big city and the same problems with cost would show up) -- which is my point.

It is NOT that you can't choose, as a person, to do this. You can.

It is that there aren't enough people who CAN AND WILL, and if enough people were to do so it wouldn't be rural anymore and the cost-ramp would attach, destroying the capacity to do it in that place as well.

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"Perhaps you can keep things together and advance playing DIE games.
Or perhaps the truth is that white men w/IQs >= 115 or so built all of it and without us it will collapse."
Abelardlindsey 2k posts, incept 2021-03-26
2023-11-07 17:48:33

Quote:
It never ceases to amaze me when someone says "but just pop out 15 kids!"

Ok, uh, where?
What will they eat?
Where will they sleep?


Guys like the one who wrote that as well as Vox Day seem to be emoting rather than analyzing. I checked out the blog of the guy who wrote that. He is in the tank with all the various conspiracy theories (covid-19 vaccines as part of depopulation scheme, ditto for 5G cellular phone networks), which seems par for the course for these kind of people. Generally, I simply don't care what these people say or so. I just find it totally off the wall that they reject the rational thinking and planning that normal people do in making strategic personal life decisions.

Think about it. We tell people to think carefully before doing a business startup that might take 5-7 years out of their lives and careers with the possibility of failure. Yet at the same time we tell people NOT to think carefully about making commitments that take 20+ years out of their lives. The mind boggles at such cognitive dissonance. Cognitive dissonance is apparently not limited to the left.

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Its all in the mitochondria.

Its the future and...you're not.
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