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 2021: The Year In Review, And A Wee Light In The Tunnel
Abelardlindsey 2k posts, incept 2021-03-26
2021-12-28 15:48:26

Scott Walker was one of my favorites (along with Rand Paul) early in '15. He realized early on he had no chance in the primary and got out early. This actually gives he more political capital for the next time he runs, if he runs, as he did not waste the time and money of his backers in a futile run at the primary. It would be good for him to come back in '23.

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Its all in the mitochondria
Martagill 2 posts, incept 2011-03-12
2021-12-28 15:48:26

Agree on the Trump prediction, anybody promoting any kind of jab for any reason .... But, I'm curious: Why not DeSantis? He's kept Florida sane (I have a funny feeling about him and while very happy he's saved us from the mask & jab posse, have a feeling you may be right, so am interested in your take).

Trump is done, and so are those who cling to him. Run away now or be run over. The man will become glowing nuclear waste before the election. Exactly who fills the vacuum is not currently known, but the leading odds dude is likely DeSantis. I don't like that very much but it is what it is and the bench sucks on both sides of the aisle -- it's not just the GOP in that regard.
Flappingeagle 5k posts, incept 2011-04-14
2021-12-28 15:48:26

How is this for a prediction?

Omicron ends the Covid madness. Everyone gets it and thus has jab, natural, or some combination thereof of immunity. Given that everyone will have had Omicron within a short time frame the resulting herd immunization ends the madness.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave
Hungrylion 95 posts, incept 2021-04-30
2021-12-28 15:48:26

Another prediction for 2022: Economic "misinformation" on at least youtube will be censored. The new manifesto reflects the CCPs general desire to use AI as form of digital governance that compels, incentivizes and coerces acquiescence while punishing, surveilling and censoring dissidence.

Erdogan Files Criminal Complaints Against Economists Criticizing His Insane Lira "Rescue" Plan

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/erdo....

Last week, when we explained "How Erdogan Launched His Lira "Rescue" Plan, And Why It Spells Doom For Turkey", we quoted several former Turkish central bank officials spoke in surprisingly critical terms of Erdogan's ridiculous "lira bailout" plan which merely kicks back the moment of terminal collapse of the Turkish economy, and whose boldness we were afraid would be promptly punished by the increasingly deranged authoritarian ruler and head of NATO's second largest standing military force (after the US).

We were right, and this morning Turkey's BDDK banking watchdog filed a criminal complaint against five people, including the former central bank governor, over comments which it said violated banking regulations with their critical commentary on the FX-protected lira deposit tool, in other words, were a simple criticism of Erdogan's recent hare-brained attempt to delay economic collapse until he is re-elected.
Thombradley 277 posts, incept 2021-11-01
2021-12-28 15:48:26

Off Topic KD did your parts ever show up?
Freewill 319 posts, incept 2021-08-31
2021-12-28 15:48:26

@Tickerguy

Any thoughts on international travel in 2022?
I expect it to still be a disaster in Canada, U.S.A., Europe, and Australasia.
Very few countries seem to care about international travel/tourism anymore.
Abelardlindsey 2k posts, incept 2021-03-26
2021-12-28 17:10:11

I going to say I think Karl is right about the housing bubble.

I am well aware of Blackrock and other whales buying up all the real estate. I think in the end this won't matter. The WEF/Davos like to think they are smart because they are rich. However, I think much of their wealth is built on leverage, courtesy of loose FED monetary policy, really since 1995 but especially since 2008. The FED being forced into liquidity drain will bring a lot of this to an end. I think a lot of the WEF/Davos crowd, that appear so formidable today, is built on the quicksand of such leverage, which will go away.

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Its all in the mitochondria
Bluto 2k posts, incept 2021-07-10
2021-12-28 17:10:24

@Veeger
Quote:
If I had to pick a viable Republigan, I go Candace Owens. She ticks the 'correct' boxes, but more importantly, she's pretty smart and definitely can hold her own with media and lefties.


I don't think an "outsider" has a chance at the 2024 nomination, unless he is a Sulla-type and brings an army with him. I don't think things will be that bad in 2024, but there is a non-zero chance they will be.

Perot and Trump proved that outsider candidacies fail. Of course, Perot didn't help himself by erratically dropping out and then re-entering the 92 election. Trump failed for other reasons, one of them being lack of bringing trusted personnel to DC. Reagan brought his troika with him (Ed Meese, Mike Deaver, and one other whom I am forgetting) and got much accomplished-- including a landslide re-election.


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"You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end -- which you can never afford to lose -- with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever
Kontrolkaos 166 posts, incept 2021-09-13
2021-12-28 17:10:30

Everyone's on to Trump regarding the vaccines, 1/6 and more. He actually represents the best hope Democrats have as they can mobilize far better against him than against anyone else on the bench. There is not another name who gets the Democrat base frothing at the mouth like Trump does. Except maybe Cruz.

DeSantis seems to be the frontrunner so far. He has looked good from time to time, but I think that is the contrast between him, Brandon and Trump. It's not that hard to look good next to other two. However I don't trust him. At all. The authoritarian streak doesn't bode well for us.

Kristi Noem is like Nikki Haley and Condi Rice in that she is just another Bush in heels. Trot her out on the national scene and watch her bend the knee. Quickly, I may add. Get out of here with that one.

Kamala's parentage is a complete non-starter as a topic to get excited about; nothing happened with Obama's father or his "alleged" birthplace. So what makes anyone gullible enough to think it will be different this time? This isn't the hill to fight on. Just. Drop. It. There are better battles.

Someone shared with me a link regarding the Big Four investment houses that own major shares of everybody. Can't seem to find it at the moment, but it does say Blackrock, Fidelity, State Street and Vanguard, iirc. Blackrock seems to be the closest to the Fed of all of them as they seem to have a bottomless purse to buy all those houses for 10% to 15% over listing prices, sometimes more. They might well be an arm of the WEF. For sure all four are very, very, very connected.
Veeger 1k posts, incept 2013-02-13
2021-12-28 17:52:57

@Bluto

I get the Outsider vs Insider logic. But an insider will not motivate the base, the Moms and Pops of flyover country. Obviously, Outsiders can get elected. Whether they have staying power is more to your point. Electing an Insider won't bring the change that we here might hope for. An Insider, by definition, cannot get my vote (assuming I were to vote next time). I think that's the crux of the issue. In a world of 49/51 type splits as we see today, an Insider won't be on the 51 side for the R's. Possibly not an Outsider either. Never having been a staunch supporter of Conventional Wisdom, I remain jaded.

CW says the Dumbs are gonna get whupped, cuz, you know, off year election, blah, blah, blah. I still see too many Karens and Dominion lingers in my brain.

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I remember the Diamond Princess.


Slowly at first, then all of a sudden.
Ee4fire 1k posts, incept 2011-03-24
2021-12-28 18:20:20

Politico is now giving Thomas Hoenig a retired member of the FOMC print time since he has been a big opponent of QE and printing funny money.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/....

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(Politicians), 536 commoditized temple monkeys pawing through the ruins of America in search of bribes. (The District of Corruption) works like a vending machine. You put coins in the slot, select yo
Bluto 2k posts, incept 2021-07-10
2021-12-28 18:20:25

@Abelardlindsey
Quote:
Scott Walker was one of my favorites (along with Rand Paul) early in '15. He realized early on he had no chance in the primary and got out early. This actually gives he more political capital for the next time he runs, if he runs, as he did not waste the time and money of his backers in a futile run at the primary. It would be good for him to come back in '23.


Walker is spearheading an effort to eliminate the state income tax in Wisconsin. If successful, that would be a huge feather in his hat. And there is really no reason (other than greed) why other states can't follow with the huge increase in property values (thus taxes).

Two of the biggest pitfalls for any Republican will be free trade and a neo-con foreign policy. If they support either of those, I don't think they will win the general election. And by 2024, there is a good possibility that those issues will be "overcome by events" in the sense that the US must raise tariffs and reduce military expenditures because of budget problems.

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"You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end -- which you can never afford to lose -- with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever
Bluto 2k posts, incept 2021-07-10
2021-12-28 18:20:38

@Veeger Trump had name recognition, which got him on the stage as an "outsider". And he then quickly hit the illegal immigration hot button which catapulted him to frontrunner status.

I think the compromise position will be the base will consider non-DC politicians as outsiders. I can think of one of them right now in an elected office, who should he run, will draw crowds larger than Trump. Exceptionally gifted speaker, minus Trump's ego. But he won't be ready to run in 2024.

Another curveball in the mix will be the apparent shift of Hispanics over to the GOP. There is a ton of both hard (election results) and soft (polls) evidence of this happening, and it is occurring at breakneck speed. Of course, one counter to that is the commanding victory Newsom recently had in California. If that movement is for real, unless the GOP does something really stupid like start a war, the Dem party is done at the national level.

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"You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end -- which you can never afford to lose -- with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever
Sonoran_monk 3k posts, incept 2021-08-16
2021-12-28 18:40:00

Kontrolkaos wrote..
Kamala's parentage is a complete non-starter as a topic to get excited about; nothing happened with Obama's father or his "alleged" birthplace. So what makes anyone gullible enough to think it will be different this time? This isn't the hill to fight on. Just. Drop. It. There are better battles.


From a politically pragmatic point of view I see your point, but from another point of view we're dying from a death of a thousand concessions. Its just a mask, right?

Trump could have easily released/unclassified the Obama records yet he sat with his thumb up his ass.

Who is gullible enough to think the next guy will be substantially different than the last, other than to continue the tradition of being worse than their predecessor?
Tsherry 12k posts, incept 2008-12-09
2021-12-28 19:04:32

I'm giggling at you folks who think that one candidate is better than another, or any different. Let me go get another beer and wipe the tears of laughter out of my eyes.

The plane is on fire. There's a mountain ahead, and you're debating which stewardess is going to serve you in steerage.


At this point it doesn't fucking matter.

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When everything appears to be going in one direction, take a long, hard look in the opposite direction.
Greenacr 804 posts, incept 2016-03-15
2021-12-28 20:01:24

@ Tsherry "There's a mountain ahead, and you're debating which stewardess is going to serve you in steerage."

Couldn't agree more but if I have to pick a Stewardess it's going to be between Noem or Halley. If I have to watch a President yap at me on TV it would be easier to take if they are easy on the eyes. Tulsi is also pleasant.
Greenacr 804 posts, incept 2016-03-15
2021-12-28 20:01:36

This is one of my favorite columns of the year.

I think the only prediction I disagree with is the housing bubble. Supply seems out of synch with demand and there is way too much all cash offerings. I know of several young couples/families that are currently priced out of home ownership that will jump in as soon as prices cool. The bubble may deflate some but it just feels like this has legs.
Keenan 532 posts, incept 2013-01-11
2021-12-28 20:03:13

@Kontrolkaos: I think this is the vid on Blackrock, Fidelity,State Street, etc. you reference:

https://odysee.com/@worldorder:b/who-own....

@Abelardlindsay: I venture that the FED's hopes of unwinding the easy money policies without a crackup are of about the same difficulty as faced by Captain Al Haynes on United Flight 232 in July 1989:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/article....
Tsherry 12k posts, incept 2008-12-09
2021-12-28 21:07:33

My daughter will jump back in when prices CRATER, not 'cool'.

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When everything appears to be going in one direction, take a long, hard look in the opposite direction.
Hungrylion 95 posts, incept 2021-04-30
2021-12-28 21:07:40

Richard Nixon in 1971: "The time has come for decisive action..." which was price controls.

So another 2022 prediction: Price Controls

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room....

FACT SHEET: The Biden-⁠Harris Administration is Taking Action to Restore and Strengthen American Democracy
December 08, 2021


From the first day in office and every day since, the Biden-Harris Administration has taken [decisive action] to restore and strengthen American democracy, from cracking down on corruption and promoting transparency to taking critical steps to ensure the federal government works for every American no matter what they look like or where they live. This cause will be a guiding principle throughout the Presidents time in office
Hungrylion 95 posts, incept 2021-04-30
2021-12-28 22:36:38

You know America's in decline when Crime is Normalised as demonstrated by the 2021 IRS Tax Guide for individuals.

You have to report property you stole and the illegal drugs you sold and whether you dabbled in virtual currencies.

2022 Prediction: IRS Tax Guide will include reporting for shit like quack remedies for Vax Cripples.
Inline
Ckaminski 6k posts, incept 2011-04-08
2021-12-28 22:36:57

Traelin: cuz men have been doing a bang up job governing the past 100 years?

Discounting a woman just because she's a woman is bullshit.

Edward.fish 518 posts, incept 2021-12-17
2021-12-29 07:46:28

Tickerguy wrote..
"Trump is done, and so are those who cling to him."

Good.
I am so tired of people making excuses for his failings.

Prof_dilligaf wrote..
I should've saved a screenshot of the "marketing" being sent to me (not that I asked) for his new "social media empire!". It was the most braindead, tone-deaf thing I've ever seen, and I've actually watched some TikTok videos.

@Prof_dilligaf

I got that, too.
Absolutely ridiculous, but exactly what I've come to expect: for Trump, social media was fine until it tossed him on his butt, the hundreds of supporters the prior years simply not mattering. (His whole family is tone-deaf; remember the Try Something New campaign Ivanka spearheaded when unemployment was super-high due to the shutdowns?)

Txdg00 844 posts, incept 2020-08-10
2021-12-29 07:46:38

Can't disagree with any of Karl's predictions. I have no clue on timing, like the rest of us, so I respect the market/housing predictions. Inflation is baked in, especially for food at this point.

My predictions for 2022?

Inflation continues for basically the entire year. People feel the pain in Q1 and make serious purchasing changes which show up in Q2 across the board.

Some countries outside the US are going to see many many more hungry/starving people to the point of it being on the news.

The housing bubble continues, but in a very uneven fashion geographically.

At least one deep blue state will face a funding crisis and be forced to cut services/benefits in a serious manner.

China finds/creates an excuse to cause further disruption within the global supply chain across multiple industries.

At least one municipality or utility provider will face a parts/supply shortage that causes a serious outage of services.

Buying things BEFORE you need them will become mainstream. Shortages get worse and delivery times don't get better...maybe even get worse.

Unvaxxed (or unboosted/not "fully vaxxed") people will finally find meaningful ways to organize collective action in the US and push back. (I admit this one is probably my personal wishful thinking!)

If you thought 2020 and 2021 sucked, 2022 will likely say, "Hold my beer." Especially the first half. We may start to right the ship later in the year, but this is a big fucker and takes a while to turn.
Crossthread 13k posts, incept 2007-09-04
2021-12-29 07:47:15

Let Me take a stab, (cherry-picking) here..

Cary wrote:
Quote:
You sound pretty down on DeSantis. What are the issues with him? From what I have seen from afar, He looks better than most of the other GOP options. Hardly what I would like, but your evaluation gives me some pause.


Mu opinion on "DeSantis", be Very careful what you wish for. While being *Strong* against the Rabid, venomous Liberal Left, He also strike's Me as a "right-wing" Messiah, Capable of starting a shooting War, then asking questions Later.

In Domestic agendas as well as Foreign ones. I'll opine, that the #Democrats will label Him, (worse) than Trump being "Hitler"...

In other words a Common-Sense Leader..., BUT....

I'm NOT saying He will not be a good/great Presidential Leader, but, I have some Mis-givings, something isn't rubbing right w/me. A Niggling in My brain, so-to-speak..



ThemortgageDude wrote:
Quote:
As for Trump is done??? The problem with that is - Who's gonna beat him? Like you say the bench is pretty short.


DeSantis/Trump would be a Great Ticket..

Or Desantis/ Mark Robinson, (NC Lt. Gov) or,
Desantis/Byron L. Donalds, (Fla 19th congressional dist.)

BOTH the latter mentioned, are POC & common sense AMERICAN conservatives..

As for Trump? He honestly needs to fade away.. He just, delayed the inevitable, that's coming down, (Or off) the tracks..
Delaying, Our Dear Host's "Futurecast" on When our Collapse is coming, Only delayed the inevitable..

IN ADDITION,, Abandoned his Folks/Base or Dereliction of duty, however you wish to describe it to the 1/6 detainees', and others that supported Him. ALSO, NOT Draining the Swamp as promised.
Though He exposed a tiny bit, HE FAILED, "We the People", In other words..

He over Promised & UNDER-Delivered

Don't get Me wrong though, I voted for Him in the first go-around, second time? Not so much.. Folks in MY AO,(SENC), have stopped supporting Him also..

Lobo Wrote:
Quote:
The problem with inflation with regards to food is how so many facets of our world tie into it: energy policy, taxes, shipping, etc. I remember cartoons in the 70s about fixed income people salivating over dog food ads on TV. We may see those again.


Coming SOON to a Fixed-Income Seniors near you soon.. Either Heat/cool your home or EAT.

"Cartoons" soon? Back in the Day, I still recall actual NEWS Stories of fixed Income folks eating ALPO & Rice & liking it!

Don't get Me wrong here.. I'm on a Fixed income, I've Already tasted a couple of "Meaty & Chunky" dog foods.. With crackers, they are not all that bad.. On about the same level of Protein's & taste of Modern Day MRE's..

About the same as Food Bank[/b] cooked Pork or beef in a can that the USDA distributes too the food banks nationwide.. (for Human consumption) smiley

Don't knock it till you try it..


Scottj175 Wrote:
Quote:
Doesn't sound like the cheap used hooptie car market is coming back any time next year either. Oh well, I don't need the temptation


Don't EVEN think about trying to buy a NEW Truck or vehicle..

Speaking of the Hooptie Market, It's just as insane.. If you have a Older SUV/Truck/Car KEEP IT!

Look, I've got a 2017 Mitsubishi Outlander Sport SE, (Our Host has seen it in person), When I visited..

I've ONLY got 30K on the ODO.. I take good care of it, (mechanically)..
Just out of curiosity, I stopped by My (Local) Stealership.. They OFFERED Me 18K on the SUV, on the spot..

I owe, 12 K remaining. Thats 4K over "My payoff", woulda done it, but.. The Hooptie Market Is just as insane. Early~Mid 90's pick'em up trucks going for 6K plus! (Or even cars are getting outrageous prices!)..
That said..


CrazyMike wrote:
Quote:
A lot of camping grounds and RV parks do NOT let in older RVs/Trailers and schoolies but my Airstream looks clean so I've NEVER had an issue getting in.


Speaking of Camping Grounds here.. Plenty of Folks that own Land.. Are either *Selling*, or converting into Campgrounds in SENC..

smiley NO, NO, NO RV's are ALLOWED at ALL "Older RV's" Trailers etc etc,, they are a Liability,, (disposal) as those folks are "flush" with cash, buy a home, leaving the RV behind for the landowner to dispose of.. In Fact plenty of (Long term) RV renters are being evicted/forced to move thier Junk, in order to raise prices taking advantage of this *HOT* RV Market.. Remember, I reside near Topsail Island/Surf City NC, (Lotsa RV Camping here)..

RV prices are also Hot & Crazy... Almost the same (Or More) than the cost of a Single-wide Mobil Home! Quite a few of the (Older) Style Mobile Home/trailer Parks are Disposing of alot of singlewides, in Lew of getting RV's to park & Stay now..

Land, up this way, (away from Wilmington & between Jacksonville, NC) along Highway 17, looks like a "Parade of Land" realtor signs, in Sundays paper.. Everyone Whom has land, is selling, At a premium..

The Majority Of recent, Homebuyers/Renters are from these States, (I notice the tags/plates),, Commiefornia, NY/NJ/MD/Pa/Mass

One more example..
A little (DoubleWide) Home down the street from Me..

Listed at 55K BEFORE, IN,, (August of 2019) just before,the Great Scamidemic.. A little 2 bdrm/1bath, 1200 sq ft, smallish lot.. Perfect for the Misses & I..
flipped & just sold for 215K! With NO improvement's!(I had inquired about it).
Folks from New York, bought it CASH..



[b'Ckaminski wrote:[/b]
Quote:
Actually, it would be interesting if the House were to somehow force the natural born citizen angle on Kamala to install Pelosi if Biden were to die or retire.

Could be an interesting way to make it happen.


Please note: the Obama years.. the B.C. & Rule of Law, no longer Matters..

Foreign Policy: Don't DO NOT think "War" will erupt in Donbass/Ukraine or Taiwan, Instead, I think it'll erupt somewhere with-in the Eurozone's countries(s), over Energy & food, coupled with the draconian & tyranny Measures/Laws/Mandates being instated..

The Fed? Painted itself into a corner.. Where are the bond vigilantes ??

Maxine G.? Nothing will come of it EVER smiley

Flashback, too 1975

Quote:
The first time I witnessed people eating pet foods was among neighbors and acquaintances during my youth in the South. At that time it was not uncommon or startling to me to see clog‐food patties sizzling in a pan on the top of a stove or kerosene space heater in a dilapidated house with no running water, no refrigerator, no heat, no toilet and the unrelenting‐stench of decaying insects. I simply thought of it as the unfortunate but unavoidable consequence of being poor in the South.


https://www.nytimes.com/1975/12/16/archi....


2019

Quote:
Im sure there are thousands if not millions of seniors in this nation that are like me that cant afford their medication that either get their medication and eat cat food, she said.

When ABC4 visited with Maria on Friday, she explained further.

Some say Well, its starting to taste more like tuna. Or, they add something to it to make it have a little more flavor, said Maria.

They already have a cat at home. So, they can buy a case. They have a can for each meal. Whether or not they have something to go with it at that point isnt important to them in their minds because they figure theyre getting the nutrition that they need from the cat food.

https://www.abc4.com/news/some-seniors-o....

I think we'll see more of this, (yet again), I recall lotsa News articles from back, "in the day" of this going on..

I often times "reflect back" as a very poor Military Family,(US).. My Mom whipping up a dish called SOS(Shit on the Shingles), & homemade biscuits, wondering if it was Alpo or something similar then.

Inflation is going to get quite a bit worse, Me thinks..

Quote:
Kraft Heinz Co. told retailer customers that it would raise prices across many of its products including Jell-O pudding and Grey Poupon mustard, with some items going up as much as 20%, according to a memo viewed by The Wall Street Journal.


The rest of food prices/energy will follow..




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Everyone of us are ignorant, its just we specialize our ignorance on different subjects.

The only walls that will confine you are the ones that you build yourself
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