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 2021: The Year In Review, And A Wee Light In The Tunnel
Tsherry 14k posts, incept 2008-12-09
2021-12-27 13:49:22

No arguments with the predictions; I think they're as reasonable as can be expected with the information available.


What I think though, is that you're understating just how bad The Suck will get. This has a significant potential to evolve into the worst economic conditions in four generations. Probably worse than that. Probably much, much worse.


Seems like no one really realizes what that really means. We don't live at the end of the 1920s. The bottom third of the current economy is not farmers. Common laborers do not have the skills they did a century ago. Stuff we rely on to 'survive' is not repairable, was not made here, is not durable. Heavy industry common in the countries that we've outsourced to cannot be built or operate here due to environmental regulations. That alone is a shotgun suck-start.

We live in an earthly, but entirely ethereal civilization. Far more fragile than we realize, easily devastated, impossible to reconstruct.

Likely never to come again, certainly not in our span on this rock.


And with that happy thought, time to go out to the woodshop and get some stuff done.

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Stop trying to sit at the tables that Jesus would flip over.
Jwm_in_sb 6k posts, incept 2009-04-16
2021-12-27 13:50:02

Kamala...NFW...they know she is not and has never been viable to hold that office. Not on an international stage. She has 0 credibility.

Redjack 2k posts, incept 2018-01-29
2021-12-27 13:52:09

I agree with the point about Trump.

The JCOS called China to give them a heads up, and no one batted an eye. Trump was HATED in the military officer corp. So much I think that if he had tried to use the military after the election, most of the military would have gone against him.

Trump also is solely responsible for the lock downs, starting inflation, the the vax nonsense. If he is smart, he will not run for nomination.

But I doubt his ego will let him do that.
Tdurden 1k posts, incept 2015-01-29
2021-12-27 14:26:34

@Ihsmta: IMO, Europe implodes before Japan. If Japan has one quality going for it, it's a more or less unified population. Yes, they have a horrific demographic problem, but they're not a dumping ground for 3rd world savages and their government isn't ran by overt psychopaths like the EU countries. The Japanese don't have have to scramble to circle the wagons in a crisis since that seems to be their default position anyway. To be sure, they are extremely polite to visitors, but at the end of the day there, you are either of Nippon or you are gaijin. Call them racist on their home turf and they will likely reply with "Oh, I see you're familiar with out culture! Please enjoy your stay."

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"I'd like to live just long enough to be there when they cut off your head and stick it on a pike as a warning to the next 10 generations that some favors come with too high of a price." -Vir Cotto Ba
Abelardlindsey 2k posts, incept 2021-03-26
2021-12-27 14:26:39

Quote:
The lack of foresight by the Democrats has absolutely baffled me. They literally backed themselves into a corner by nominating Kamala Harris as VP nominee.


She backed out the primary because she polled less than 2%. My understanding is she was picked by the Hillary faction of the party because she was perceived as being the "heir apparent" to Hillary and her policies. Additionally, she is apparently owned lock, stock, and barrel by the social media giants of Silicon Valley. It was them that bankrolled her Senate seat run. I believe her reputation as "kneepads" is largely the reason they supported her. She is both incompetent and corrupt. She is also deeply unpopular, which will backfire on the social media giants.

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Its all in the mitochondria
Abelardlindsey 2k posts, incept 2021-03-26
2021-12-27 14:27:04

Michelle Obama is not very bright. She got into and through Harvard as a "diversity" candidate and was hired by a big law firm (I don't know which one) on the same basis. She quit about 8 months in because she apparently could not handle the work. That's when she got that "diversity" officer HR job at that Chicago hospital. I have heard (and seen video evidence) that she is somewhat "ghetto" in her personality and behavior. She is not a credible candidate and I think the democratic party leadership is well-aware of this.

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Its all in the mitochondria
Jackamok 181 posts, incept 2021-09-03
2021-12-27 14:27:27

Quote:
The JCOS called China to give them a heads up, and no one batted an eye. Trump was HATED in the military officer corp. So much I think that if he had tried to use the military after the election, most of the military would have gone against him.


Trump has a history of not reciprocating loyalty to those working for him, something that was made abundantly clear by what he allowed to happen to Gen Flynn, to that 20-something campaign guy with the Greek name, and to a bunch of others who helped him win in 2016 that The Swamp went after. And topped off of course by the fate of the Jan6 people.

Especially given his failure to replace any senior folks with people who weren't swamp creatures, why would any officer stick his neck out for Trump in 2020 or 2021?

Trump served his purpose, which was to give The Swamp a chance to surrender peacefully and keep their head and to radicalize The Right by exposing The Swamp for what it really was. Now he can go away.
Jwm_in_sb 6k posts, incept 2009-04-16
2021-12-27 14:27:54

Of all the predictions, the Jizzbrain Maxsmell one was the most surprising to me. I agree that it has the potential to unravel the current political and professional class pushing the vaxx...particularly the Intelligence Community at the intersection of politics and Deep State.

RE Trump, he never had the support of military at top levels but did at lower at least for a while. I maintain that something happened last December and the rug was pulled out. Moot point now because he fractured his base in the O'Reilly and Owen's interview. He's done. Barnes is still clinging to some hope but even he realizes how stupid that was. I expect to see Steve Bannon to pivot in the next few months on this. I guarantee that he took notice of it.
Chromehill 1k posts, incept 2010-03-03
2021-12-27 14:28:15

Kneepads is not going anywhere for the reasons KD stated. Plus, McConnell might be a turd, but he does know how to play the polical game, no way allows the confirmation of a new VP in a 50/50 Senate. He already proved that he will take the slings and arrows when he refused to confirm Garland to the Supreme Court.

Kneepads is a heartbeat away from the Presidency, better than 50/50 she gets there in the next 3 years with the walking corpse in the Whitehouse. She craves power, she is not walking away.

The Dems cannot force her out, she is a twofer, a woman of color. The Dems base would not tolerate kicking kneepads to the curb. If there was a scandal big enough to force kneepads out, it most likely would take many other Dems with it.

This could get real interesting, I have a hunch that Harris is not going to put up with Obama secretly running the country like Biden does.

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'Power, like the reproductive muscle, longs to be exercised, often without judgement or right' - Gerry Spence

"Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers
Redjack 2k posts, incept 2018-01-29
2021-12-27 14:41:26

KH can be removed.

I wouldn't fly with her for instance.
Kontrolkaos 182 posts, incept 2021-09-13
2021-12-27 14:41:31

My two bits:

An inflationary anecdote: Shipping anything more than a small package is getting expensive. Friend had me help him prep some ~20lb boxes of items for his daughter several states away. I've sold mostly smaller items on eBay for years, yet I was blown away by what it was going to cost to ship those boxes via USPS. Looked at UPS and FedEx as well. Similar. Then found a blurb on USPS saying that they were setting higher rates for the holiday season. So friend decided to hold off shipping til January. But I think rates will not improve.

Trump? Unlike our proprietor, I'm not given to swearing, but fuck him. Go away and good riddance. He left the 1/6 protestors behind, he won't call out the FBI undercover operations there, and he continues to double down on the vaccines. Anyone who still needs convincing needs to watch that dumpster fire interview with Candace Owens. Anyone who continues to back him needs to get their eyes examined for artifacts. At this point, he is nothing but controlled opposition meant to block anyone promising coming up through the ranks. Just. Go. Away.

Real estate is a tad different this time around from the 2000's. Back then it was subprime and NINJA loans. This time, there has been a lot more cash buying and the amounts involved have shocked me from time to time. Has the look and feel of people taking money out of the financial and banking system into an alternate and UNencumbered asset. Blackrock and buyers like them can well afford to absorb the volatility. Can the RE market drop some, yes it can; will it drop a ton like in 2009? In blue regions beset with blue nonsense, that's a very good possibility. But for red states, I'm not as convinced of that as I was just a few years ago. The migrations to the red states aren't stopping anytime soon. RE might pause, but expect it to run a few more years like this at least in the red states.

Last but not least, Democrats are up a certain river without a paddle when it comes to Kamala and the old man. I can't think of a scenario where either or both leaving office prematurely works out for them. 25th Amendment? That'll be the day.

Regarding TG's geopolitical predictions: I suggest Ukraine as one to watch for a false flag operation. A la Syria in 2013. There still exists a too large contingent in the MIC who are frothing at the mouth for a war there. The only reason it hasn't broken out yet is because it's winter and they know how unpopular it would get in a hurry. Like the national reaction to the Syria event that year. In a few months, it won't be winter. Be very nervous then.
Augeries 422 posts, incept 2019-09-26
2021-12-27 16:03:33

@Jwm_in_sb Trump holding his ground on the vaxxes is characteristic of him. His ego won't let him admit he is wrong, even to salvage his popularity. I sure hope his supporters are taking notice, he is not to be trusted going forward. Even if he was, I'd rather have someone else. I'm not interested in a 2nd term for Jarred Kushner. Get Tulsi, get Candace Owens, get Rand Paul, get fucking anybody else. Trump should be used as support, to rally people to a new leader.

Steve Bannon seems like a hell of a guy, and I wish he had more power. His interviews with Tim Pool, and another couple no-name youtubers, confirm to me that Bannon is actually a level-headed person with reasonable political standpoints. It is a crime that he was debased as "far-right", because I think the average American would be ready to support him if they could only hear what he has to say.

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The World is Quiet Here.
Mr_clueless 113 posts, incept 2009-06-04
2021-12-27 16:03:38

The last line of the post is missing the word GRAVY. :D
Chromehill 1k posts, incept 2010-03-03
2021-12-27 16:30:44

@Kontrolkaos - Agree about Ukraine, the left loves the Russians as an enemy. No matter how much Xiden is in bed with Xi, Taiwan is something that can not be ignored. They are the worlds biggest producer of chips, that would cause a huge disruption to the supply chain.

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'Power, like the reproductive muscle, longs to be exercised, often without judgement or right' - Gerry Spence

"Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers
Ihsmta 904 posts, incept 2008-04-10
2021-12-27 16:30:55

@Tdurden - I didn't mean to imply that Japan would implode. They've had their run up and correction. The US will follow a similar trajectory.

Europe? Yes, the EU will first financially then politically implode. But, I think that's a few years off and not a 2022 event. As WWI and WWII proved, the Europeans can go from civilized to feral very quickly. Keep an eye on Russia.

@Kontrolkaos - it's speculated that, based on their buying patterns, the Russian ruble is completely backed by gold. While Russia is controlled by Putin, it is politically stable. They have abundant natural resources being basically ag and energy independent, a large land mass, and an established military/industrial complex. As is said, the Russians play chess while the rest of us play checkers. Ukraine has to be taken when the plains are either frozen or dry - dead of winter or summer. If they begin to roll across Ukraine, there's nothing but speed bumps to slow them down. VP Kamala Harris threatens "super sanctions"? Yeah, right.

Hong Kong emboldened China. They are actively pursuing Taiwan. Crimea emboldened Russia. They are actively pursuing the Ukraine. The US State Department and Pentagon are distracted by social justice issues. Biden/Harris are out of their league.

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"Economists are no different than the prophets of ancient Pompeii who reassured that Mt Vesuvius would never blow. After all, it never had before." Baxter Black, DVM and Cowboy Poet

"You can avoi
Supertruckertom 7k posts, incept 2010-11-07
2021-12-27 16:31:17

The Era of "Free Shipping" has got to end.

It was always a marketing lie.

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Preparing to go Hunting.
Eleua 22k posts, incept 2007-07-05
2021-12-27 16:37:51

Quote:
Of all the predictions, the Jizzbrain Maxsmell one was the most surprising to me. I agree that it has the potential to unravel the current political and professional class pushing the vaxx...particularly the Intelligence Community at the intersection of politics and Deep State.


NEVER, as in take every single possible remote chance and get rid of it, going to happen.

The trial is the cover up.

This ends with, "Nothing to see here. Move along. Any discussion of elite satanic pedo rings running the world is smiley, so don't bring it up. Crazy talk. It's all a conspiracy theory."

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Diversity + proximity = WAR

-They wanted camps; I want ropes.
Mannfm11 8k posts, incept 2009-02-28
2021-12-27 16:48:35

I will try my hand at this.

Inflation: This is a complicated issue, because it has been raging for decades and hasn't shown up in prices of goods to a recognizable degree. Goods inflation is a mismatch between money available and demand and goods available. Commodities are priced at the margin, what is paid, for the last unit available. The mismatch between what is produced and what has been demanded has widened, as people won't work or aren't allowed to work. In the meantime, added costs of doing business are sizable. Supply interruptions will make it worse. When will it become necessary, for the Fed to float all debt, as holding long dated securities cease to any sense? It will continue, until the market is capable of producing more than demanded. I am a price buyer. I won't buy, unless I really want the good. As long as money is available, for nothing, I agree.

Democrats: Their nonsense has been advertised as mainstream and the traditional thought labelled as extremist. Nothing is farther from the truth. How many people wake up to the nonsense they are pushing and actually see a Republican that will detour, from the National RNC/DNC uni-party game as the solution, will determine the damage. How many turn off the TV's, which have led America into this totalitarian trap. We won't like the real pain of long-term change, but a system wedded toward more fascist and socialist economics it headed directly away from freedom, at an accelerating pace. Hitler took power overnight. I think the Democrats could lose 50 seats, in the House. Re-apportion alone, should cost the House.

The Fed: The Fed is in a trap. Don't doubt the power of deflation. There is too much debt and raising rates deflates the value of all financial securities. The Fed is more of the ant, on the log on the river. The Fed used short dated paper to operate prior to 2008. There was no market risk, in short dated paper, as it ran off the books, in less than a year. What happens to their mark to market, if rates go up 2% or 3%? They lose their current value and become subject to a run. How can a government dependent on a bank that has been bailing them out, do an about face and bail out the bank? Swap paper is all I can see. Double suicide. The Fed remains pat, until they have to defend their liabilities. the dollar. Then, they could be screwed. They need to send a message to Congress no more stealth stealing. Japan has been here, for 30 years, but they don't have the US trade imbalances. They hold pat until the market forces their hand.

USSC: I'm more worried about their mandate decision, which rests somewhat on the same concept as abortion. Telling me I have to take a jab, but we are going to uphold abortion rights don't even belong, in the same thought pattern. I think they uphold the state laws, while banning outright deprival. There should be a cutoff allowed. Seems Roe was the first trimester. There are a lot of choices available to women prior to conception. There is a lot of time to figure out, if sex caused one, before 3 months. A lot of genocidal people will pay for one. We have filing times for income taxes.

The equity markets? A function of inflation and capitalization rates. The cap rate is 3% to 5% too low. Eventually the law of finance prevails. Stopping inflation slows or stops year to year nominal growth. Markets, in the 1970's didn't do poorly due to a lack of growth, but because the cap rates kept marching upward, to reflect inflation. I recall them changing full employment from 4% to 6%. When finance recognizes the law, we will see a long-term real value top, in the markets, likely decades. The indexes reflect the value, in a declining unit. I'm long metals. for certainty. They may go bear too, but they won't go to zero. I don't know how we don't have a recession.

Supply chain? Even if they start playing catch up, they will remain behind. This is more akin to the disruption of permanently taking out a major oil producer. A bigger danger could be the supply being cut off. China has a new virus shutdown, in a large city.

Business will get it in both holes; How can they not?

Blue hives?: Last one out, turn off the lights. You take away what people need or restrict it; it ceases to exist. Urban and left state bankruptcy is going to be a rising problem, which I suspect is behind the political insanity in DC now. They are forcing the rest of us to join the parade.

Geopolitical trouble: My eyes are on China. Ukraine is a story. I would watch Central Asia.

Maxwell? Maxwell's silver hammer. There is a panic to push pedo into LGBTQXYZHIJK. Mind you, 17 is legal in most states. I'm beginning to wonder if they are lowering the definition good sense.

Biden was finished, before he started. This guy was rigged into office, for a reason. Karl makes a good point that the Republicans do not install a VP. Then, we find the Republican NAZI's, if anything other than agreed stealing occurs. The whole shit show needs to implode with him. I think they make a Biden Manican before they give up the Senate.

Business uncertainty? Depends on which end, of the spectrum, but socialist in power, with their regulation is a big danger to everyone. Wounded do absurd things.

Housing? That is my business. My nephew is working for a publicly traded housing firm and he was telling stories of epic absurdity. I would be a seller, if not for tax consequences and the Fed. Higher prices mean higher taxes, so you need higher rents to stay even. I raised rents on about 1/3 of my inventory. More is coming. I like occupancy, because changing tenants is costly. The Democrats may be trying to eliminate SFR construction and Wall Street is in the game. I'm in a rapidly growing area. Outlying land prices have gone insane. We sold an in-town lot, with a worn-out house and bought up the road, 60 miles, from here. It might be a place to set up camp. should it all come apart, in town. A 2% increase, in mortgage rates, implodes housing and likely the economy as well. There was a 4-year void, in SFR supply, between 2014 and 2018, so there may be a catching up. I think the big question is, how many people die, from the jabs and when do people start having kids again? This could be deep long-term hole, but as long as rates remain low and people keep moving into the area, it moderates, but continues. I have heard Zillow is stuck with a lot of homes right now, which means flippers have aggravated the situation. What is the real supply, once these entities have to stop? They were clearly a motor, in the run up.

Medical? F them. I hope they take a massive bath and the wrapper comes off the government/corporate scam. Big pharma and the scam run right down to Walgreens and CVS. Pure NAZI system and been that way for 50 years. I'm about to the point, it is better to die without them.

Schools? What a national scam. This is a good old boys, elite bullshit the rest of us network. There should be a law these people can't work, in government. 200 years and the world hasn't moved out of New England. I figured this out, a couple of years ago. Name a branch of education a major course of study not geared toward dealing with the government? The really nonsense ones, like female studies have no place, in the private sector. Lawyers, Doctors, teachers, nurses, accountants are largely nothing but government lacky's. It has all been designed to screw us, on the way in and out. Paying to get on the inside might be a good investment, but I doubt many people get there without blowing a few. Might be why DC is so full of deviants.

Trump just might be done. I think his defense of the jabs is going to do him in. But Trump changed a lot of people's perspectives. Trump wanted to reverse course on CV19, but something stopped him. I suspect he was threatened, by his own party and likely corralled by his own executive orders. All the attacks on Trump's CV19 policy, Biden did nothing to change it, keeping Fauci, on the top. I think it reveals who really runs the country, once the reins are passed. People need to wake up to the fact the government never does something for you without doing something to you and they never reverse course. They double down instead. Note the nut Jayapol is egging Biden to operate as a dictator. I think it is time, for the people to break this shit show up.


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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Mannfm11 8k posts, incept 2009-02-28
2021-12-27 17:14:54

@Redjack: Pelosi is next. Biden picked KH, for the same reason Bush picked Quayle. Pelosi might do her in. I wouldn't like to see the War powers EO's she puts out. Pelosi would be even worse. If we could get a real election in 22 and 24, the Democrats would go the way of British Labor.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Moconserv 855 posts, incept 2013-02-13
2021-12-27 17:15:11

@Tsherry: (Seems like no one really realizes what that really means)
This. How bad it will suck is on my mind a lot. Mostly in how to prepare for it, mentally and literally. I am fortunate that my parents were a product of the depression and grew up with and raised us 9 kids with the lessons learned from that...."waste not want not - use what ya got - clean your plate - turn out that damned light - touch that thermostat again I'll kick your ass" and so on. In addition we gardened, canned, fixed our own stuff. In addition, my in-laws who are still alive and 10 years younger than my parents each grew up not just poor but really poor. My FIL didn't have indoor plumbing or electricity until he was in high school, MIL same boat plus her father was killed by a bull when she was 16 so helping her mother raise her 7 younger siblings toughened her up. So it is with this background that we "know" what it was like. Now, experiencing it for ourselves will be a whole different story but at least we have a sense. How many of our 300mm population can say that? Thank God we know what it was like before cell phones and internet and how to entertain ourselves and communicate. Will it suck? Sure. But when those go down how many will spend 2 weeks looking at their screens bitching about "when will it come back up?" when they should be worried about how to heat their home, where the next meal is coming from and what are you going to do when you flush and the turds coming bouncing back out on the bathroom floor. I feel like we're prepared... we gave up on the medical industry thanks to Karl and at 60 both weigh less than when we were in high school, take no Rx drugs, keep a read on what our bodies tell us, etc... 6 mos. of food/water and 20 miles from in-laws home on acreage with huge garden spot. But make no mistake. It will suck. Hugely.

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Embrace the suck.
Jwm_in_sb 6k posts, incept 2009-04-16
2021-12-27 17:18:12

Really Eleua? I didn't expect to see CNN get caught up in something like it just did either. They'll try to cover it but it may be too late. This is no longer pizzagate hysteria.
Mannfm11 8k posts, incept 2009-02-28
2021-12-27 17:29:20

@Cheetah9: Any Republican who votes for HRC should be recalled. I'm packing my shit and looking for another country. Someone will shoot Harris and HRC will demand picking up all the guns, after her hit man is shot mysteriously by a lone assassin, aka Jack Ruby.

FJB will be replaced by FKH. The difference being some will actually want to do it. Can anyone really believe the reins were given to an obviously senile old man to be passed to a girly empty headed giggle box, as leader of the free world.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Abelardlindsey 2k posts, incept 2021-03-26
2021-12-27 17:29:36

I can tell you that Portland is experiencing the decline as predicted in this blog posting. Restaurants in Portland began closing BEFORE covid-19 showed up, mainly due to the massive numbers of homeless and the near constant protests and rioting we had during Trump's time. The homeless essentially took over downtown during the first lockdown (we had two of them) and are still there today. The police are ineffectual because they have been told to mostly stand down. Naturally crime is out of control and the murder rate is now back up to early 1980's level (the previous peak) and continuing to increase.

We used to go downtown a lot, say around '15 and '16. We've only been downtown once this past year ('21), in the summer. There were a lot fewer people in the waterfront park compared to previous summers. Homeless, and the accompanying litter and filth, was everywhere.

I have not been up there in over 5 years. But I'm hearing that Seattle is in even worse shape. They (King county) has the vaccine mandate for going to the gyms or restaurants. At least Portland does not have this madness. I think the reason is that the Portland economy is so bad they realize any vaccine mandate would just kill it. Seattle seems to have enough "true believers" they convince themselves that the vaccine mandate will not affect them. However, it is. Many of the downtown shops and restaurants have shutdown due to crime, homeless, and likely the vaccine mandates.

Everywhere else in the Pacific Northwest appears to be normal.

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Its all in the mitochondria
Dbigkahunna 822 posts, incept 2010-01-10
2021-12-27 17:39:35

KH can be removed.
I wouldn't fly with her for instance.
Redjack, this is an interesting dilemma to contemplate.
Who would shitty Depends(or handlers) nominate who could get through the process?
Would Ole Turtle allow another LW Democrat to have that position? Or would President Poopy Pants put in, oh say Romney or another RINO senator from a state where the governor would nominate a Democrat to take that seat?
A lot of intrigue can be generated by bouncing a few angels off a pinhead.

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Blessed, Grateful and Living a Dream
Djsnola 353 posts, incept 2009-03-16
2021-12-27 17:49:30

The Trump prediction is one I can def understand. What Im curious about is how he reacts to being less popular with his former base? Will he go scorched earth and take the party down with him or will het get out of the way? His ego and past tells me no, but i hope thats wrong. Perhaps his childrens love of money might be enough to to get him to go away. If he were smart, he would bow out of the limelight and enjoy retirement. While I dont like Joe Biden, I am also not interested in revisiting the 2016-2020 years either. Anything/anyone, that can lower the temperature would be appreciated.
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