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 2021: The Year In Review, And A Wee Light In The Tunnel
Magus 3k posts, incept 2008-05-04
2021-12-27 10:41:52

Good results from last year and good list for this year. I largely agree except on housing (I think we're going to repeat 1975-1985 on elevated inflation) and I'm not convinced the Fed will raise rates, much less drain any liquidity, in an election year even if they really, really want to do so. I'm a lot more bullish on RRE in the bottom half of the country than the top half. Wages are going crazy, people are moving in from NY, NJ and CA and just think its dirt cheap, institutional $ is buying now (private, not REITs) and the quality of the buyer/downpayment is 100x better than 2005-2007.

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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of f
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