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2019-06-23 11:19 by Karl Denninger
in Federal Government , 263 references
[Comments enabled]  

Uh, not really.

DHS/ICE now has disclosed the truth: An utterly huge percentage of the so-called "migrants" are in fact criminals.

Not just criminals "somewhere else" where they might have been persecuted in some form or fashion either -- criminals who were judged guilty here in the US, which of course implies they were previously deported!

In other words these "caravans" are full of people with United States criminal histories.

These are not "migrants" folks.  Between one in ten and one in five, approximately, has a prior US criminal history.

That's 10-20%, which is much higher than the percentage of US Citizens with a criminal history.

Those people are not entitled to due process under US Law when they show up and claim "asylum."  They've already been adjudicated and criminal records typically are a near-absolute bar to further entry into the United States, as is the case for virtually every other nation.

Go try to get into Canada if you have as much as a DUI on your record and you're likely to be turned away at the border.  You don't get "due process"; you already had that.  You are told to get out and get lost -- period.

Further, there are close to 2 million people currently in the US who have final orders of removal against them.  They've been notified of their hearing dates and typically didn't show up.  Then they were notified they lost and didn't show up to voluntarily leave either.  These people are criminals and amount to some 10% or more of all the illegal invaders in the United States.  They are not entitled to "due process" because they already got that and lost their cases!  We are talking about fugitives from justice here folks, not "poor asylum seekers" and any politician or government official (cough-Kevin McAleenan-cough-cough) who intentionally disrupts or impedes the immediate seizure and removal of such persons from this nation are in fact aiding and abetting criminal behavior and must be indicted and imprisoned now.  And by the way, this includes President Trump if he does not immediately order ICE to arrest and remove all of these individuals, and it also includes any state or local "official" who tries to interfere, harbor or hide these people.  Harboring a fugitive from justice is a crime and, if the person in question is absconding as a result of, or has a prior felony, it's a felony to conceal them.

Can we stop with the BS?

2019 06 20 JDJ MM JH CR MC ... by on Scribd

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2019-06-12 16:01 by Karl Denninger
in Federal Government , 229 references
[Comments enabled]  

When in the course of human events....

 

$793 billion have been received for Social Security and Medicare; Treasury "counts" unemployment (FUTA) and "other retirement" in their "receipts", but in fact FUTA is an insurance contract, basically (it pays for the 13 weeks of unemployment you get if you lose your job) and the rest is minuscule.  That FUTA tax, however, is not -- it amounts to nearly $37 billion, which isn't exactly chump change.

Again, FICA is 12.4% up to $132,900 in wages.  Medicare is 2.9% on the first $200,000, and then 2.35% above that.  There is no cap on Medicare earnings.

Social Security thus far this year has taken in $605 billion while Medicare has taken in $184 billion.

Medicare and Medicaid thus far this year, however, have spent $1,072 billion and there is four months left to go in the current fiscal year!  That is, they're spending 583% what they're taking in through taxes.  Looking at Medicare alone it's close to $800 billion or more than 400% of tax receipts.  That top graph from the MTS is ridiculously dishonest in terms of how it breaks down spending; here's the detail section in question below which documents spending on Medicare hospital ($228.6 billion) and non-hospital ($317.7 billion) components, or $546 billion between them along with another $238.6 billion transferred out, all of which is actual money spent.

 

And by the way while the drug issue is real fixing it alone will do nothing as thus far this year it's only $63 billion out of the more than $1,071 billion -- or six percent of the total.  The 900lb Gorilla in the room is the felonious monopolist practices (declared illegal under 15 USC Chapter 1) found throughout the medical system; picking on six percent of the issue will do nothing.

So far this fiscal year over $354 billion has been spent on interest, or approximately double what is taken in for Medicare tax.

Social Security, on the other hand, has spent $730 billion.  This is a 21% operational deficit.

You can fix a 21% operational deficit; while nobody would like a 20% tax increase on Social Security (it would go to 7.44%) it probably won't bankrupt you.

There is no possible way to take a more than 500% tax increase to cover the medical scam.

Those politicians and pundits who talk about entitlements as the source, lumping in Social Security with Medicare and Medicaid, need to be indicted for fraud.  Their continued and intentional lying about both what has been going on and attempting to play "Scare Granny" through said lies needs to be met with severe consequences; indeed, we should consider a legal structure under which they can be hanged for that crap.

The facts are that the State and Federal AGs, Congress and our President are responsible for all of this.  There is exactly one way to stop it, and if it is not stopped then within the next few years the federal budget will detonate, destroying the economy, the markets and cutting off the ability of the government to fund itself along with all of those "promised benefits", especially health care.

It is a serious felony to conspire to fix prices or restrain trade.  So says 15 USC Chapter 1.  Both State and Federal Governments have refused to act on this; we face the destruction of our nation's finances if we do not stop it NOW.

THE MEDICAL SCAM MUST BE STOPPED IN ITS TRACKS BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY; PEACEFULLY AND LAWFULLY ONE WOULD HOPE, BUT SINCE THE ALTERNATIVE IS THAT THE ENTIRE NATION WILL BE DESTROYED THEN THE THREAT IS EXACTLY IDENTICAL TO, AND MERITS EQUALLY TOUGH CHOICES AND ACTIONS, AS AN ACTUAL INVASION BY A FOREIGN SUPERPOWER.

TIME'S UP; WE WILL NOT GET TO 2024 BEFORE THIS BLOWS IN OUR FACES.

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2019-06-08 09:00 by Karl Denninger
in Federal Government , 382 references
[Comments enabled]  

It's really quite simple.

To obtain any social benefit at a state or federal level -- including free public schooling, Medicaid, Section 8, EITC, EBT of any sort (including WIC and Food Stamps) the following criteria must be met for all persons living in the household.  A person is "living in the household" if their personal effects are in the abode or they sleep there:

  • Said person(s) are US Citizens OR
  • Said person(s) are lawful permanent residents who have been lawful permanent residents for at least ten (10) years OR
  • Said person(s) are lawfully present in the United States, having been admitted through a legal immigration or migration program and they have a US Citizen or 10+ year Permanent resident as a formal, voluntary sponsor who is remitting, on a monthly basis, the ratable portion of all social benefits and costs incurred by them or their direct offspring to the US Treasury and State Treasuries, respectively.

Violation of these terms results in the immediate termination of all such benefits in which federal funds are implicated including free public schooling, free lunches, EBT, EITC, Medicaid and similar for all persons in the household.  If debarred due to a violation said debarment is effective for 12 months and may not be mitigated or overturned prior to that time, even if an impacted person moves to a different household, except by a showing under a preponderance of the evidence that the original determination was made in error.

Said termination may be challenged via court process.  Said process is entitled to expedited hearing in the Federal District Court in question and may be filed by an impacted person without counsel, however, injunctive relief is NOT available prior to adjudication and, if challenged and upheld at hearing or trial the debarment is, by Statute, extended from one to three years which may not be shortened by administrative or legal process.  There is no right of appeal either; you get one hearing, period.

Further, a person reporting such a household, which is found to be harboring illegal invaders, is entitled to 10% of the social benefits that would have otherwise been spent in said household on social benefits for the next 12 months as a "finders fee."

Second, shut off the coyote revenue with the following:

  • No person may transfer funds out of the United States to a second person not in the United States via any means, including "money transmitters" such as Western Union, Moneygram or the purchase of prepaid accounts valid outside the US unless they provide positive identification as either a US Permanent Resident or Citizen and same is recorded by the transmitter and is both retained and details of same are reported to Treasury when in any calendar year the aggregate amount exceeds the 1099 reporting requirement for any single person ($600.)

This stops the nonsense instantly, including by people attempting to circumvent the rules by abusing "prepaid" accounts with companies like Amazon, WalMart, PayPal and similar.  It does not impact someone having a prepaid card or other means of funds who personally travels and uses it, but prohibits sending "remittances" by anyone who is not a permanent resident or citizen.

This instantly detonates the means by which the "coyotes" can collect from migrants who have no money and promise to pay once they get to the United States and start obtaining "freebies" from the US and State governments or via illegal employment.

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2019-02-13 14:50 by Karl Denninger
in Federal Government , 432 references
[Comments enabled]  

There's simply no other way to express this....

 

These numbers are for only three months, so for the full year multiply by four.

Again, the total "social insurance and retirement" tax grab is $274 billion.  Social Security is a 12.3% tax (up to the cap) and Medicare is 2.9% (no cap.)  The split is thus roughly-speaking ~19% Medicare, the rest (81%) Social Security.

If you want to get down into the detailed numbers they don't "quite" add there because there is both spending and tax revenue that gets bucketed in each from the various line items.  But it's not off by much; the "line item" (without the bucketing) comes up as 74/26 -- not materially different.

81% of $274 billion is $222 billion.  Social Security spent $251 billion.  That's a ~29 billion shortfall.  Not good but there are a lot of Treasuries held against that requirement, and by 2026 the budget impact as a percentage starts to fall because the boomers start to die, statistically speaking.  In other words Social Security had a ~12% shortfall over the first three months, indistinguishable from my last look (12% .vs. 13%.)  This is easily fixable on a forward basis without much economic pain.

Medicare, on the other hand, spent $153 billion but took in just $52 billion.  That's a shortfall of 66%; that is, two thirds of it is unfunded.  You would have to more than triple the Medicare Tax Rate in order to bring it to parity.

That's an "improvement" over the nearly 75% deficit in the first month but we are in fact talking about bleeding out in two minutes rather than three; the outcome does not change.

Add to that "Health" (Medicaid, mostly) and it's much worse; now you take in $52 billion but pay out nearly $300 billion.

Note that the deficit thus far is $319 billion.  If you were to get rid of the deficit between Medicare and Medicaid .vs. tax receipts you would almost close the deficit to zero.  If you also increased the FICA tax rate by 13% (to just under 7% for "each half"), increased the income cap where it stops being collected or some combination that wounds up in the same place as well the deficit would be effectively zero.

$319 billion over three months equals roughly $1,300 billion, or close to $1.3 trillion in deficit for the entire fiscal year.  The only good news is that April is usually a strongly positive month (as a result of taxes being due) but either way the deficit is almost-certain to be in the neighborhood of $1.1 trillion this year.

You cannot fix this with either taxation or cost-shifting. It is mathematically impossible to do so.

For example you'd have to nearly double the individual income tax rate on everyone, including the middle class; to close the gap by increasing the corporate tax rate you would have to raise it by more than an insane and utterly impossible 600%.  Any claim that we can solve this by making people pay "their fair share" is a flat-out lie.

You cannot get there by "cutting spending" on other than these programs either; if you cut all "other spending" to zero along with transportation and education you'd only cover 30% of the deficit.  Cutting military spending to zero (which is obviously impossible) wouldn't get there either.

There is only one way to solve this problem and that is to collapse Medicare and Health spending by 80%.  You can only resolve the problem by collapsing the medical and health insurance monopoliesforcing everyone to publish a price for everything and charge everyone the same price, where said price must be handed out before service is provided, along with telling everyone involved that for any and all conditions in which a lifestyle change will remove the need for treatment government will pay zero unless the person in question makes that change.

The trend is not improving and it is not "The Next Generation" that will have to deal with this.

This has to stop right damn now or it will blow up before we get through the next Presidential term -- and no, you cannot tax your way out of it either.  The people in Washington DC -- Congress and the President -- must be held personally and politically responsible for their refusal to deal with the only way to put a stop to it, which is to destroy the medical monopolists using existing, 100+ year old law, and to do it right damn now.

And if they refuse we the people must enforce our demand for them to do so.  They will refuse, I remind you, unless forced by the people -- and there are peaceful and lawful means to do exactly that (e.g. a general strike.)

Nothing less than the literal existence of this nation as a Constitutional Republic is at stake.

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2019-01-02 06:00 by Karl Denninger
in Federal Government , 2527 references
[Comments enabled]  

I said NOW damnit.

 

12.4% tax for FICA, 2.9% for Medicare.

Total is 15.3%.  Of that 81% is FICA, 19% is Medicare.

The total in "Social Insurance and Retirement" taxes taken in (that is, the entirety) in the first two months of the fiscal year was $179 billion.  Of that $145 billion was Social Security tax and just $34 billion was Medicare tax.

Social Security paid out $167 billion.  That is more than $145 billion but there are bonds that are being cashed -- quite a lot of them in fact -- and the structural deficit for that program is $22 billion or 13% (that is, 87% of the payouts are offset by pay-ins.)  If you got rid of the disability scamming you'd close the gap materially; SSDI has paid out almost $24 billion in the last two months.

The point on Social Security is simply this and anyone saying otherwise is a damned liar:  A 13% structural deficit is fixable without a crazy amount of pain (either by lifting the salary cap, a 13% increase in the tax rate (to 14% total; 7 and 7) or some combination of the two, and that assumes no effort on reduction in disability scamming.)  Further, the load on the Social Security system from the boomers will start to fade as they begin to pass within the next 10 years.

MEDICARE, ON THE OTHER HAND, SPENT $129 BILLION BUT ONLY TOOK IN $34 BILLION.  IT HAS A 74% STRUCTURAL DEFICIT.  YOU WOULD HAVE TO QUADRUPLE, ROUGHLY, THE MEDICARE TAX TO BRING IT INTO BALANCE.

THE REAL OUTRAGE IS THAT TO THE MEDICARE FIGURE YOU MUST ADD MEDICAID WHICH MAKES IT MUCH WORSE AS THERE IS NO TAX FOR THAT COLLECTED AT ALL!  CMS (Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services) HAS PAID OUT $270 BILLION THUS FAR THIS FISCAL YEAR AND WE ARE ONLY TWO MONTHS INTO FISCAL 2019!  THAT IS UP FIFTY BILLION OVER LAST YEAR'S RATE AT THIS TIME -- AN UNBELIEVABLE 24% INCREASE!  THE TOTAL SPENT BY CMS IS MORE THAN DOUBLE STRAIGHT MEDICARE SPENDING WHICH MEANS TO COVER IT ALL YOU'D NEED TO INCREASE MEDICARE TAXES NOT TO 400% BUT TO MORE THAN EIGHT HUNDRED PERCENT OF WHAT THEY ARE NOW.

While I suspect some of this increase was a result of game-playing with Treasury not paying people right near September 30th in an attempt to "cook the MTS" for the end of fiscal 2018 and thus "announce" a smaller deficit it is extremely unlikely that all of it can be attributed to that sort of gamesmanship.

There is no "entitlement crisis" in Social Security.  It is all in the medical side and it is going to bankrupt the nation and government both at the state and FEDERAL level unless it is stopped right here and now.

These are not my numbers or projections; they are the actual cash flow from the Treasury department.  They do not reflect what someone thinks will happen they reflect what actually has happened and is happening -- right here, right now.

The MTS is truth just as your bank statement is truth because the MTS, as a cash flow statement essentially is the Federal Government's check register!

You can tamper with asset values and you can make all sorts of projections and claims but if you have ever run, examined or done accounting for a business you know that cash flow is always truth.

Any media publication, "pundit" or politician who tries to spin this and claim that Social Security is a "difficult" part of it or that in some way they're connected must be pilloried and run out of town on a rail.  They are lying and intending to bankrupt you and this nation.  They are not only violating their oath of office they are deliberately destroying both you and the country as a whole.

If the government will not enforce the law (specifically, 15 USC Chapter 1), break all the medical monopolies and slay these jackasses with criminal prosecution immediately, driving medical costs down by 80% so the cash flow statement returns to something resembling balance then the only peaceful option remaining for the public is a full-on General Strike to compel the government to do so -- right here, right now, today and forevermore until the government takes that action.

The truth of the nation from a fiscal perspective is simply this: If the medical monopolist crap is not broken now fiscal collapse at local, state and federal levels is a certainty.  There is absolutely no possible way out of this box through higher taxes, cost-shifting, economic "growth", more borrowing or even all of them at once.  "Hide the sausage" games just flat-out don't work.

Time's up.

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