Hoh hoh here comes policy error.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, government, social assistance, and construction.

Uh, unemployment ticked down so where's the labor softness?

More to the point in the unadjusted household survey it didn't "tick" down it collapsed by five ticks to 3.9% from 4.4 and that survey not only showed 698,000 job gains it did so into an increase in couch-surfers of 419,000 people as well who voluntarily left the labor force to sit it out.

If you believe the inflation genie is going to remain corked up under that scenario, along with The Fed trying to "ease" you're out of your blinking mind.  This is the precise error The Fed made in the 1970s and its going to lead to the same result.

Do not mistake this for actual "prosperity" however; it is all debt-fueled as the Treasury data clearly shows.  Yes, the formal MTS is not yet out for September (it will be) but Treasury set an actual one-day record for deficit spending right at the first of the month.

Problem: Its being siphoned off which is why FEMA is crying poormouth and this, my friends, is why you're not getting ahead unless you're one of the few who has managed to figure out a way to pull that garbage.

As with all Fed moves the impact is 6-12 months later which means the nasty inflation spike, which I now definitely do expect, will come after the election -- but come it will.

This is a bad number -- especially on the back of last month's report.

The unemployment rate declined to 3.7 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 134,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.

This is utterly nasty and the drop in the unemployment rate is entirely due to an increase in the NILF figure -- people who have left the workforce.

Let's look inside:

In a word: Meh.

The 12 month change is below 2m.  The rate has been over 2m for roughly the last year, but now it is solidly below.  That's bad news, because the increase in working-age population is approximately 2 million, so if you can't manage to put up that number on a 12 month rolling basis you are losing ground.

Heh, look at that "formal unemployment rate" -- it's a multi-generational low.  But does it mean anything?

Not really since there the employment:population ratio is nowhere near the 1969 figures.  Having an "unemployment rate" that is extremely low because people aren't looking for jobs but are either sucking off public assistance or otherwise out of the workforce isn't positive -- it's negative since only working people pay taxes.

Have you looked at the annualized "debt to the penny" figures lately?  No?  Well maybe you should.  I'll help you out with that in the next few days in my usual annual report on exactly how much bullshit Washington DC has emitted into the "economy" and thus the fraud embedded in the GDP "expansion" rate.

Once again having a Bachelors or better did not outperform; all of the educational categories gained, but both high school dropouts and degree-holders managed one tick of advancement.  "Some College" and High School graduates both gained more, however, meaning that once again we are making McJobs and not, as is often said, positions for the "highly educated."

There are also indications of slack in the part-time statistics but this month I ignore them because of Florence.  If they persist into next month, however, they are likely an early indication of a negative turn in the economy and employment situation.

We shall see.