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2019-07-15 08:05 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 193 references
[Comments enabled]  

"I'm an anti-fascist" -- He's a fascist.  In fact he'll beat you with a baseball bat or shoot you if you disagree with him.

"I'm for drug price reform!" -- He wants the drug companies to screw you up the ass.

"Medicare for all!" -- Actual medical care for noneMedicare Taxes for all.

"I care about children deeply!"  -- On his zipper and up theirs!

"I.... did.... not... have.... sex... with... that... woman!" -- I got a knob-job from her under my desk.

"Drugs, if abused, might destroy your life!" -- Therefore I'll arrest you and throw you in prison for having them, which will destroy your life.

"Inflation is low and controlled" -- In anything you don't actually need, like a television.  In those things you do need (food, medicine, car insurance, etc) prices have been doubling every 5 years or less.

"Wage gains are strong." -- Government deficits are rising faster; in real terms you're losing.

"I'm for the common people" -- She's all for you getting butt-raped, that is.

"You cling to your guns and are dangerous" -- He wants those guns so he can shoot you -- or someone else can rob,******and murder you -- while you're defenseless.

"I'm pro-choice" -- Actually, you're pro-killing, seeing as there are 1 million-odd fetuses destroyed a year.

"Separating children from their parents is immoral" -- Only when the parent, who committed a crime, is an illegal alien.  When the parent is a US citizen then it's not only good it's expected because said "parent" obviously can't be bothered to obey the law while with their children.

"There is no such thing as an illegal." -- Uh huh.  Their first act in America was to violate the law -- and for most, it wasn't their last by a long shot; they go on to rip off people's identities, engage in criminal tax evasion, fraudulently access medical and other social services and when ordered to leave go on the lam, refuse to comply with the lawful orders of a court and hide.  Not that we should expect different from someone who's first act in the nation is to break the law.

"We're a great friend to the US" -- Except when we engage in illegal cartel behavior with our oil, or blast unarmed American ships, or participate in illegal price-fixing by our pharmaceutical companies.

"We support human rights" -- Can we go ask the Uyghurs about that face-to-face?  No?  Gee, I wonder why.

"That's an autonomous region!" -- Except for their elected officials and the laws in said region, of course.

"We're for free trade!" -- Starting with ripping off everything that's not nailed down, hacking your corporate computers and more.

"We're progressive!" -- Uh huh.  It's progress to enslave people in forcing them to give what they have to others?  It's progress to take over student lending and void bankruptcy options for those who borrow same?  It's progress to force people to pay someone else's medical bills?  It's progress to force girls in 10th grade to shower with boys in their locker room at school?  It's progress to force girls to attempt to compete in track with boys spouting a penis, testicles, and massively greater muscle mass as a result of their genetics?  It's progress to pass "people of color" in school or college who can't do the work?

Got it yet?

Just checking.

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2019-07-14 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 561 references
[Comments enabled]  

I'm sure you've heard about last night.

NYC had a transformer fire.  It happens, especially when you don't do things like maintenance, even if it's just looking around.  You don't notice that this one is rusty and leaking some of its cooling oil, or that one has connections to it that are running hotter than they should. Then bad things happen, like catching on fire.

60,000 people were plunged into the dark in NYC.

This was either a pure accident (unlikely) or deferred maintenance (almost-certainly.)  It wasn't an intentional act.  ConEd didn't have someone go down a manhole and blow something up.

But they could have had that happen.

This was one reasonably small transformer in one hole.  They fixed it, and the power comes back on.  Inconvenience, yes, but nothing catastrophic.

A few hundred dedicated men, willing to die in pursuit of making it really bad, could do exactly that.

They could at any time.

They could in your city.

They could in a number of cities at once.

And if they were as few as a thousand they could wreck most of the large cities in this nation -- leaving them without power and no way to recover for months -- or more.  Within days the mob of "diversity" would take care of the rest; months later there would nothing left to restore power to.

So long as those men were dedicated but not coordinating, there's literally no warning that anyone would have, nothing to interdict and nobody to bust before it happened.

Instead of a little transformer for which ConEd has many extras laying around the disruption could easily target things either in importance or number that there are no spares to cover with.

Many of these items are bespoke; they're very large, very expensive, and nobody keeps enough of them around to have an extra just laying in a back room somewhere.  If you have to order one it takes weeks or months to be built and shipped.  If there's another compatible unit somewhere it's hours or days away.  It frequently won't fit on a tractor trailer, at least not a "regular" one.  Sometimes it won't fit down the road it has to go down without closing it both ways -- very disruptive, very visible, and very easily interdicted when replacement is attempted.  One guy with a common hunting rifle can trivially put several holes in it from hundreds of yards away at which point that "replacement" is worthless too.  Yes, he'd be caught immediately but that doesn't make the holes disappear.

Then what?

To be sure anyone involved in such a thing will be hunted down.  You can bet on it.  They'll be Public Enemy #1.  I'll bet against them even getting a trial; they'll just be shot.

But that won't get the power back on.

Our cities of today are flat-out not survivable without electrical power.  Modern buildings have sealed windows; without powered ventilation they become intolerable within hours. Nobody climbs -- or descends -- 30 or 50 floors of stairs more than once.  Traffic cannot move without signals; there aren't enough cops to hand-direct traffic over anything beyond a modest area even if they weren't otherwise occupied -- and they would be.  Without street and building lights at night there's a mugger -- or worse -- around every corner.  You can't park, or get out of a parking garage; there are no lights, there is no way to process your money or print a ticket for your car.  Airports can't function; while critical functionality is backed up with generators for a while (e.g. ATC) the terminals are not, other than for emergency lights.  Ordinary business functions cease instantly; the corner store is closed immediately, nearly all ATMs stop working, the cash registers everywhere shut down and the subways do not run.  If you use the subway to get to and from work and are at work you're screwed.  All food store frozen and refrigerated cabinets violate safe temperature limits within a few hours; inside of 24 hours not only is the food rotting and worthless the stench, especially if there's fresh fish in there, would be unbelievable.  The downtown hotels can't check you in or make key cards -- not that you'd be willing to walk up 14 flights of stairs to your room.  Without booster pumps running any building more than 10 floors or so tall has no water; ~15psi of pressure is 33', more or less, and most utilities run in the 40-50psi range.  Beyond 100' above ground level unless the pumps run there's no water.  Many high-rises have tanks in a mechanical space near the roof for this very reason but when they're empty there's no way to refill them.  (This, by the way, is why there are standpipe connections on buildings; if there's a fire the in-building booster pumps may be compromised, and without them the firefighters can't get water up beyond the 10th floor or so to put it out!)  Without lift pumps and the ability to scavenge the sewers it's just a matter of time before flushing a toilet results in the street being filled with sewage -- or worse, backing up into the lower levels of the building.  While that infrastructure almost-certainly has diesel generator backup to run it you need fuel.  To get fuel you need clear and available roads or other means to bring it in.  How do you do that when the streets are impassably gridlocked?

Our cities of today have effectively no possible way to generate sufficient energy inside their borders.  The screaming lefties won't let local generation take place -- so it doesn't.  Most larger cities, such as Chicago, are lucky to generate a fifth of what they need within a defensible perimeter -- or less.  The rest comes from outside sources, and to get there it has to be carried on wires, regenerated on a routine basis if AC (due to phase lag it must routinely go through transformers with distance) and if DC then while there's no phase lag consideration there is conversion required on at least the consuming end and, unless produced by solar, on the generating end as well.

Even our smaller cities have shut down their municipal generation.  I know of several.  It used to be utterly common for a smaller city or town to have its own power plant.  I was shocked to learn these had all been mothballed or torn down as that means those "suburban" areas and smaller towns are also dependent on the "mega generators" somewhere else, and they're just as vulnerable as the big city is.  Some of them have argued cost, but most are yet another victim of the enviroweenie screamfest garbage.  Make that waste and smog there, not here.  No smokestacks -- where you can see them.  Where someone else's kids get poisoned?  No problem.

But your local municipal water tower must have power to pump that water up there and run it through its purification processes just like the big city with its larger pumps or you have no pressure in your tap.  It must also have a supply of disinfectant (typically chlorine or chlorine dioxide) to disinfect said water and maintain its safety while in the water mains and pipes or you can't drink it without boiling it first, and the chemical plant requires electricity.  If the water in your tap is not drinkable without being boiled first how are you going to boil said water and for how long can you do that?  If your water heater is electric with no power you have no hot water.  If you're on a well and have no power to your property that nice pump down the hole you paid $10,000 or more to drill is worthless. Your furnace or A/C does not run.  If you're not able to back that up with something that doesn't require electricity (e.g. a pot-bellied wood-burning stove), and it's cold outside, you're screwed.  If you have a propane tank you may think you're ok but you're wrong; the company that fills your tank has to have power in order to run the pump that fills the truck's tank and the same is true upstream from them!  Whatever you have in your tank at the time it happens is all you'll have until the power comes back.

"But the farms will be ok, so if you're out of the cities you'll be fine" you say.  Really?  What milks the cows?  What runs the pump that puts diesel into the tractor?  How about those irrigation systems you see all over the heartland -- do you think they run without power?  Are even smaller farming operations able to continue at all on the farm of today without electrical supply?  That small farm operation you think will be perfectly fine is almost always on a private well and septic -- and guess what the well needs to pump the water out of the hole?  Electricity.

When there is no hustle and bustle around starting a backup generator is like throwing red meat at starving dogs.  You'll be able to hear it from a mile away or more.  You and your lovely farmhouse may have a nice extended family with four or five people in it who can offer a decent degree of defensive firepower but against a hundred people who hear the generator and realize there's water available there you're going to be overrun or burned out of the house and die.  Oh by the way, you can survive for weeks without food but only a day or two without drinkable water.  If you think people won't immediately riot, loot, burn and kill over not having access to it you're very wrong.

There are plenty of people who scream about the possibility of another Carrington Event sort of thing.  I, personally, don't worry all that much about that specific issue.  Why?  Because we'll get plenty of warning and they'll shut the grid down.  Oh sure, the city will be dark for a day -- or a few.  But the gear won't be destroyed; they'll turn it off and ground all ends.  Bet on it.  That's the thing about space weather; like a hurricane for the most part we really can and do see it coming.

No, the real problem is more-likely to be human-caused than a natural phenomena.  I don't buy most of the doomer EMP scenarios; especially not one that would have an effect over a large swath of the nation.

But a small, dedicated and uncoordinated group of *******s?

That ought to keep you awake at night.

This time it was just bad luck, or the power company not paying attention to maintenance.

This time.

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2019-07-10 14:05 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 85 references
[Comments enabled]  

Heads up!

The little spinny thing out in the Gulf right now is near-certain to miss me, and at present doesn't look impressive at all.

Be careful rather than complacent, especially from roughly Louisiana to Galveston.

There has been very little cloud cover and precipitation this year in the Northern Gulf, and the usual August "nasty" heat level that we get here showed up in June, with the last couple of weeks of anomalously hot weather.  This has added to the oceanic heat content in the Gulf and hurricanes are heat engines; they redistribute that heat into the upper atmosphere and, as they track northward, into the northern latitudes.

This storm is also forecast to track west, which is unusual.

The most-probable outcome is a tropical storm, which is nothing serious except for the flooding rain potential.  It does not appear that a steering-current collapse is likely, which is what causes these storms to come inland and sit, producing ridiculous amounts of rainfall -- although that risk cannot be entirely ruled out.

We've been quite dry here until the last 2-3 weeks or so this spring; IMHO a good soaking around here would be welcome.

There is an outside chance -- which I currently put at about 10% -- that instead of a nice soaking rain somewhere from Louisiana to Galveston instead gets hit in the face with a Cat 3 aound Friday or Saturday.  Again, it's not likely but by the time it looks likely you're probably going to have to 24 hours if you're lucky to deal with it.  The good news is that simply due to the lack of time while the storm could spin up and be quite powerful if you get it in the face it's also likely to be quite small in diameter as it won't have time for the windfield to expand outward before it comes inland.  In addition satellite imagery shows dry air on both the north-east and south-west "squeezing" the moist area at present; NHC thinks this is going to relax and allow a very good outflow pattern to develop; I don't see that now but if it does happen that would support quite rapid intensification.

Right now the models are jumping around a lot on the initialization -- they simply don't have enough data to be "good."  That will change rapidly; NOAA has an aircraft up right now sampling, and since we're this close to land they'll be doing a lot of those runs and updating the data sets that go into these models on a short-time basis; as a result the forecasts should rapidly improve.

Just be aware that the possibility exists of a nasty "surprise!" sort of storm if you're in that area over the next few days.

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2019-07-10 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 141 references
[Comments enabled]  

This is the sort of article that makes you want to set an ambush and urinate on a guy off the top of a building.

The two central values of the declaration are the origins of human liberty and the legitimacy of popular government.

When Jefferson wrote that we are endowed by our Creator with certain unalienable rights, he was referring to the natural law. The natural law teaches that right and wrong can be discerned and truth discovered by the exercise of human reason, independent of any commands from the government.

The natural law also teaches that our rights come from our humanity — not from the government — and our humanity is a gift from our Creator.

So far we're doing well.  Yes, this was a radical idea prior to 1776.  But not that radical.  There were others who espoused it. If was just that the ruling class didn't believe in any of it.

The interesting part of the so-called American Experiment is that this point of view really hasn't changed at all.  Oh sure, from time to time lessons are taught, frequently out of the barrel of a gun.  Indeed, thugs listen to only one thing: The credible threat, or actual use, of force.

Why would they listen to anything else?  Reason is inconvenient.  Rationalization; that one is better because of their skin color, sex, or simply who ****ed who and thus begat what child from which paired off set of penis and vagina is not only ancient it's literally timeless.

Even those who question or reject the existence of the Creator can embrace natural rights; they can accept that our exercise of human reason leads us all to make similar claims. Rights are essentially claims made against others, including the government.

Oh really?

A right is a claim against others?  Did you mean to qualify that Judge, or did you omit the qualification on purpose?

See, there are two forms of alleged "rights": Negative and positive.

The distinction is this: A negative right enjoins you from doing something to someone.  A positive right requires someone to do something for you.

But there is only one form of actual natural-law right: The negative one, and the reason is simple -- all "positive" alleged rights are in fact slavery, in that they compel the taking from one person, without consent, for another person's benefit.

One cannot believe in natural rights -- that is, that one is entitled as a human being to life from whatever form creation is believed to have sprung, and at the same time compel someone to give up that which defines them by other than mutual agreement for another's benefit.

Therefore there are no positive rights.  Any assertion of one is in fact a declaration of intent to enslave and deserves exactly one response.

The idea that each human being possesses inherent natural rights by virtue of one's humanity is not just an academic argument. It has real-life consequences, which Jefferson recognized. Those consequences are implicated when government seeks to curtail rights for what it claims is the common good or the good of the government itself.

Jefferson recognized that you can consent to the curtailment of your own rights, but you cannot consent to the curtailment of mine. To Jefferson, government can take away your rights without your consent only if you have violated someone else's rights; it cannot do so by majority vote.

Well gee, Judge, it appears we both agree with Jefferson.

Or do we?  You see, I don't believe you agree with him at all.

In America, consent of the governed is married to the natural law. Under the natural law, what is yours is yours and what is mine is mine. If I attempt to take your land or car or cellphone, you can stop me, either directly or through the government to which we have both consented.

Can I?

Do you actually believe that, Judge?

If one of us has not consented to the government's existence, it can still enforce natural rights as the agent of the person whose rights are being violated — just as it does for bank depositors when it captures a bank robber. If we have not consented to the government and it takes our liberty or property, it has no moral legitimacy and is merely a common thief.

And just above, literally in the previous paragraph, the Judge tell us what we can do with common thieves.

We can stop them.

By whatever means we have to employ.

Thieves rarely respond to polite language.  They do, however, usually respect a credible threat of immediate lead poisoning, although sometimes it has to be proved that credibility by delivering same.

So Judge, where was the obvious and clear follow-up statement to your claimed perspective?  It seems to be missing, and I do wonder why.  I wonder if you really mean anything of what you wrote above, or for that matter, below:

Did you consent to a Congress that steals liberty and property on a whim without due process; to a president who starts wars, raises taxes and spends money in defiance of Congress; or to courts that let folks be tried twice for the same crime or punished for crimes not yet committed?

Well uh, no.

To make the question direct so you can't dodge it: Are you suggesting that we shoot them?

Oh, and how about our state and county governments?  Do I consent to the theft of my liberty and property on a whim by them as well?  If not, are you suggesting that we shoot them as well?

I'd like to know exactly what you are suggesting, Judge -- and do you really mean any of it?  Are you willing to back up any of your bull**** with your life, fortune and sacred honor -- or is it all only for good as long as there's no cost?

Isn't that -- the fact that if you really believe what you wrote then you have to be willing to pledge your life, fortune and sacred honor -- the real lesson of Independence Day?

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2019-07-07 10:05 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 113 references
[Comments enabled]  

Cheating in sporting events is nothing new.

Distance running events, in particular, are rife with it.  There's an entire cottage industry within the "marathon circuit", for example, of people who register and then someone else runs a good part of the course with the bib.  This is a double-cheat because the person not only is faster they don't run the whole 26.2 miles.  Then there are those who cut the course; a game of cat-and-mouse has long been played on that account by race organizers and course stewards who try to strategically place split-time mats (now that we have electronic timing) intended to DQ you for that, since you'll miss one or more of the mats.

But now, we have this and suddenly it's in the news.

A 70-year-old man found dead in the Los Angeles River on Thursday had been disqualified last week after appearing to set a new record for his age group in the city’s March marathon.

Frank Meza, a retired physician who had denied the cheating accusations, died Thursday after telling his wife he was going for a run.

This guy's time in the LA Marathon, 2:53:10, is radically faster than anyone of his age had ever run that race -- or any similar one.  The next guy in his age bracket was more than an hour behind him.

This isn't the first time he allegedly cheated either.  There are a few people who have gotten mad enough about this to start chasing it down in major races, going back through photographs and video.  Like, for instance, the allegation that this same guy cheated in 2014 -- during which he allegedly posted a sub-three-hour time.  That article went up one day before this guy appears to have decided to voluntarily check out rather than face what looked very much like music coming his way.

I've seen this myself; a couple of years ago at a local 10k I witnessed several runners within my visual range intentionally cut the course.  This was a manually-timed (not chipped) race, so the risk of a mat in a place that would instantly bust you wasn't present.  There's no possible way the cut was an accident; the course was very well marked at the point they deviated, there were plenty of other runners in the immediate vicinity including ones in front of them that went the right way and as such it sure appeared to me to be intentional.  I didn't have to report it, however -- the people running the race had strategically placed a spotter near the turn where someone cutting the course, or not going all the way to the cone, would be caught.  They were DQ'd before I finished.

Frankly I don't get it.  Unless you're literally first, and there are damn few people who ever are in these events, while you're racing against everyone else in your particular age bracket in reality the contest is against your own personal records.  We eventually all get slower as we age; there's nothing you can do about it, although for most people they can keep improving times into their 40s or even 50s.  But by the time you're 70 that's not happening any more.

Nonetheless there have always been cheats in all games of skill, and running is no exception.  It's getting harder, however, to get away with it given all the social media and other photography and videography gear that is plastered everywhere, in everyone's pocket and in everyone's hand.  Inevitably if you pull something with any sort of regularity someone is going to get you on camera doing it.

It's just a matter of time.

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