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2018-10-12 10:37 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 150 references
[Comments enabled]  

Someone is making her way back to the US from New Zealand.

I'm biased.  But, with that said, this is an utterly-amazing shot -- and it's wildly-reduced res too, on purpose.  The raw file is probably something unbelievable, which I'll get to see reasonably soon.

 

Sarah is young with no dependents, fit, cute (I know it shouldn't matter but you know damn well it does) and has a Passport she enjoys using.  Being "on the road" suits her.  She can shoot like this all day long (some of her wildlife shots are utterly insane.)

And unlike the days of old where you had to wait for film to be developed you can have and use the work now.

Is there anyone still out there that uses talent like this in the field?  If so..... she's coming into Hartsfield tomorrow night. smiley

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2018-10-10 07:53 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 224 references
[Comments enabled]  

As expected it appears Michael will be missing Ticker Central to the east.

Not by a lot, but by enough.  This is a small-diameter storm.

However, as I said in my last post yesterday on this, if you're Tyndall AFB sucks to be you, and that appears to be verifying.  The expected surge depth is from 9-13 feet (!!) between there and Keaton Beach.

I'm not sure I believe the claimed windspeeds (now claimed to be Cat 4) but we shall see.  If it's actually a Cat 4 then anything in the path up to and possibly including reinforced buildings is going to be either heavily damaged or destroyed.  Common residential construction will not survive Cat 4 winds; that's the equivalent of an EF2-EF3 tornado that lasts for an hour or more.  The tornado that was kicked off by Ivan and went through Marianna was rated as an EF3 and I saw part of the damage path -- it literally slabbed houses.

Note that these windspeeds generate light-object missiles and can lift cars, including potentially throwing them at the upper end of this range.  Or, as I've said before -- the issue isn't that the wind blows, it's what the wind blows.

Assuming the NHC's windspeed claims are truthful this is roughly equivalent to a 10-20 mile wide EF-2 or EF-3 tornado.

Just remember once this storm has passed that it's the empirical evidence that verifies the claims; a Cat 4 strike is no joke and unless you have the equivalent of a tornado-rated shelter you're insane to remain in the path of it.  If you are in the Panama City to Appalachicola area right now you can still escape but you need to do so right now -- within the next hour or so -- and get north and west.  Get to 231 if you're east of PCB to roughly Tyndall or on 71 if more toward Mexico Beach or Port St. Joe and get the hell out of there NOW.  If you're east of Port St. Joe then consider going through Perry and east instead.

Remember this is a small storm (hurricane-level winds only extend 45 miles from the center) but the surge damage will almost-certainly be over a much larger area than the wind.  If you're within 10nm or so of the exact landfall you're at risk of (assuming NHC is being truthful on windspeed) of any building you're in being severely damaged or destroyed.  But if you're anywhere between roughly Tyndall to close to Steinhatchee and within a few miles of the coast the risk of a 10' wall of water coming at you is very real.  In particular, as I noted in my last missive, the "pocket" between Steinhatchee and Appalachicola is a hellishly nasty area for surge because the water depth up in that pocket area is shallow and the contour acts like a funnel.  Even moderate storms cause extensive surge-based flooding and if this is being accurately reported as to windspeed the surge in this area is likely to be extreme.

The biggest unknown right now is whether the bay system north of Panama City (and the inlet there) will remain on the clean side or the eyewall will come ashore with it on the dirty side.  A few mile miss could ram a 10' wall of water right up into those areas.  The odds are good that this is avoided but if you bet on that in the immediate Panama City area and are wrong.....

In the worst case you can hide from wind in anything sturdy enough; you will hate it but live.  Surge on the other hand can and will trap and drown you.  IMHO unless you have at least 20' of elevation and are anywhere from Tyndall over to roughly Steinhatchee, and possibly fronting any of the bays in Panama City, I'd be out of there now.  Consider it a daytrip; by late this evening the storm will be north of Florida and while it'll still be sporty the true ugly for Florida itself will be over.

I can see the eye on local short-range radar now; it's clear and closed.  This storm will be one evil bitch if it gets you, but it's quite small unlike some of the monsters (e.g. Ivan) we've dealt with in the past.

Good luck folks -- here it's gonna rain and be a bit sporty, but it'll be quite ugly further east in a few hours.  If you're in the direct path get the hell out of there right now; in another 2-3 hours the risk of being cut off will be unacceptably high.

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2018-10-09 09:13 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 198 references
[Comments enabled]  

The hype machine is in overdrive -- again.

Let's face it -- if you live on the Gulf Coast you need to be prepared all summer and through Halloween for the potential of a nasty storm, and then there's the odd one that shows up in November.

But the screamfest does not help.

Saturday I was moderately concerned that Ticker Central, which is near Destin, was "under the gun."  Sunday not so much, and by yesterday as the breathless screaming continued, along with out-of-gas conditions around here it got absolutely comical because the alleged westward movement of the storm that the models had predicted didn't happen.

In addition there's a huge dry patch of air over the western Gulf -- it was there over the weekend, it was there yesterday and it's there now.

 

Now granted this doesn't stop a storm over warm water from intensifying but it does prevent the sort of "blow up" situation that can occur where a storm radically expands in both size and power in a very short period of time as that dry air keeps getting sucked in and inhibits the storm keeping its circulation closed off.

Between the two the odds of this area being butt-pounded were very low -- maybe 20% over the weekend, last afternoon and evening around 10%, and now likely even less.

10% isn't zero but it's also not "Calamity now".

On the other hand if you're in the Panama City to Carabelle area you're in trouble.  Everyone over there has known they were at some risk but that is where the 900lb Gorilla is in terms of magnitude of the risk in absolute terms.  The only good news is that the population density is, on a relative basis, lower by a lot and as such there's much less to destroy.

Of course if it's your house or business that's cold comfort, isn't it?  Tyndall AFB, in short, sucks to be you.

Wakulla Coutny last night issued what I found to be a particularly-annoying warning -- they told people to get out but also aren't opening any shelters because... wait for it.... they don't have any rated for more than 115mph winds.  Yeah.  Oh by the way that's just south of Tallahassee.  If you live there I hope you're getting out of there now if your residence is threatened by either trees that can come crashing into it or it's just not up to snuff to withstand 120mph winds, never mind the very flat land, relatively high water table and thus severe flooding potential.  In addition most of the roads in the area have high potential for debris blockages (mainly fallen trees) which can easily cut off escape should it become necessary.  Getting caught out in a car in 100+mph winds is highly annoying but having that compounded by a flash flood can kill, so..... yeah.

But then there's reality, which is that 100mph sustained winds more than a few miles inland are.... unlikely.  And I'm being kind here to the NHC and NOAA.  Indeed with this sort of small-core storm, and it will remain one due to that dry air which has been there and remains, unless you happen to be in the very small window perhaps 10-20 miles wide where it comes in right on the beach I bet nobody records a three-digit one-minute sustained wind.  100mph gusts, perhaps.

Nonetheless 60-70mph winds are plenty enough to ruin your day, knock out power to wide areas and, if there are trees around that are less than stout, topple them -- which is very bad if one happens to come through your roof and then it rains inside for eight hours straight.

Don't get me wrong -- these storms are serious business but we do nobody any good by cranking up the breathless hype machine to sell clicks and ads.  I stayed here for Ivan and it was a real five-alarm mess.  Ivan was a long-track storm with a lot of windfield; it earned the title "monster."  But then not long after Ivan we had Dennis that threatened this area and we also stayed.  Dennis was a pretty-decent analog to this storm; it was a small storm (much as Michael is) in that hurricane winds extend just 40 miles out, but tropical storm winds are a nice big 195 mile radius.  However Dennis was materially stronger than this thing is expected to be.

Navarre, which pretty-much took Dennis "in the face" got hit hard.  Boats in the road, condos badly damaged, some buildings destroyed, etc.  My house, as the crow flies, is roughly 27 miles from the center of Navarre on the dirty side.  Here it rained and was windy but in terms of anything serious that storm here was one big fat zero.

So if you get "missed" by 40 miles with a storm of this sort of size, especially if you're to the west of it, you don't get a hurricane at all.  You get a little blow job instead of a big one, and perhaps a bunch of rain with the latter, along with the surge risk all to the east of the center.

Do take these things seriously folks, but don't buy into the hype.  I never make 100% decisions on these storms until 6 - 12 hours before projected landfall but for those people west of the Okaloosa/Walton county line, even just a bit, I've said since the weekend that the odds of anything really awful out of Michael are low -- but not zero.

I bought some beer last evening so I've got beer, ice and water but given the current outlook I give us 50/50 that I don't even lose electrical power at Ticker Central and I may, just for grins and giggles, take my camera out on my dock in the middle of it tomorrow (assuming it's not raining hard enough to trash it; I don't have an underwater housing for it) just to add some honesty in reporting to go along with the breathless insanity out of Cantore-style glo-bull****-warming screamfest.

Around here you've got a better set of odds of getting a serious blowjob from Cantore than this storm.

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2018-10-06 12:33 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 125 references
[Comments enabled]  

Here it comes snowflakes, let me know how y'all make out this afternoon as the vote is taken....

Triggered much yet?  I hear there are cry rooms at major universities these days; maybe you can whine your way into one and let it all hang out.  Oh, and if you do something crazy make real sure it gets caught on social media or video somewhere -- the Internet never forgets, and neither will your employer -- present or future.

Have an awesome day -- I intend to watch the vote on CSPAN while enjoying one of Kavanaugh's favorite beverages....

I LIKE BEER! smiley

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2018-04-20 09:41 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 133 references
[Comments enabled]  

So, if I want to be "done" there's an easy way to do it.

Sell my LLC -- that runs this joint.

What do you get?

The Ticker -- the (registered) Trademark, the site, the domains, etc.

HomeDaemon-MCP -- as I've posted before.

Permanent RTU (right to use) on the forum / blog code -- we can talk about the source and right to distribute; I might be ok with that too.

And maybe I'll do guest articles from time to time too.

What is this?  A "Make me Move" sort of deal.

You know how to find me (look to the right, fool -- the link is right there.)

Yeah, I'm thinking about it, and it's cheaper now than later -- like next year -- when I can kill the "mandatory" Obamacare policy (which I don't need) and keep as much cash flow as all of the above can generate but the lower income-tax liability on the earnings.

So, if you want it, this is your opportunity to get it -- whether its to have it or to just shut me up.

smiley

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