There will be one.
There always is.
About a month ago on Twatter, when Royal Caribbean "announced" they were playing "must be vexxed" I said get the **** out of all the cruise stocks. They were very close to their rebound highs. I was mocked, of course, on Twatter; that day, when I posted it, they were down a couple of percent and the ha ha ha ha it's bouncing up to the close was the refrain, with one douchebag saying he was buying into it.
How's it looking now?
Well, you're missing close to a third of your investment in Carnival, to be precise.
That's a big loss.
There's a basic problem here: We went down the wrong road with Covid-19.
I've pointed this out since it started. We had plenty of opportunity, eight months to be precise, to actually interdict the winter surge. No, we wouldn't have saved everyone. That's not how it works -- ever. But we could have done a lot. Instead we had the Democrats and public health officials praising various political "protests", which were mass-events, while telling everyone else to******their pants, hide under the bed and that masks were better than vaccines. Obviously they didn't believe their own bull****.
Then it was jabs. Believe they work or not, your choice. The CDC and NIH claim they do. Fine. I don't care if you believe it or not and this isn't the thread to debate it.
But if you believe it works then it doesn't matter if I took a jab or not, as you're safe.
So why the screaming?
We all know the answer: You fear you may have ****ed up so you want everyone else to drink the KoolAid too. That way if it turns out you did it's not just you who takes the dirt nap; a bunch of others go with you.
That's very Christian of you, isn't it?
Oh, just asking -- how's that work out for the zombies? Not so good, right?
Well, economically there's a problem with all this whether you're a zombie or not. Fearful people don't create jobs, do they? They run up their credit cards and buy houses at crazy inflated prices because, well, YOLO and they don't expect to be around tomorrow. Who gives a crap about the statement with a "Please pay this amount" line on it?
Meanwhile Biden and Company have good vibes coming from what Trump did -- blowing a crazy amount of money on trying to prop up a dead economy -- one he, personally, killed by being a bed-wetter himself. After all, people pissing their pants hiding under the bed don't make for a vibrant anything, except sales of laundry detergent and carpet shampoo. So give 'em the money, let 'em smoke bongs -- oh, wait, now they don't want to come back to work.
That's a problem, right?
Worse, we know from previous downturns that when people leave the workforce and go on the dole, as with SSDI, they don't come off. Ever. A very large percentage never return to any work at all, say much less anything like their former position and salary. That's how it is. We've seen it repeatedly -- in 2000, in 2008, and now..... will it be different? Probably not.
Yeah, I know, Zoom is doing great. So is Spamazon and a few others. I get it. "Money has go somewhere."
Well, true, except for one problem: After original issue at an IPO for every buyer there is seller who thinks the buyer is full of crap. One of them is wrong. It's easy to think you're right for a while -- but are you really? Or did you buy a pig in a poke?
If you buy a stock at $300 and it goes to $50 someone else didn't make (and thus can't spend) the $250 that disappeared while you held it screaming down the chute -- it's gone.
Inflation is very simple when you get down to it, and so is The Fed. The Fed cannot commit a single dollar of QE nor cause a dollar worth of inflation without Congress spending what they don't have. It's basic mathematics; to commit QE they must buy Treasuries. To buy them Congress has to cause Treasury to issue them. In every case that happens because Congress does not first tax what it spends.
Never mind things like setting the reserve rate to zero. Which Congress specifically authorized, I might remind you, after Hanky Panky had his first failed attempt at $700 billion. The second included a one-sentence change in the law permitted Bernanke to set the reserve rate to zero. I reported on it at the time and pointed out that Congress permitted infinite leverage which, if abused, would blow up the government, the economy and you.
Congress passed it, Bush signed it.
You did nothing about it despite it being a clear declaration of intent to steal literally everything.
That was more than a decade ago and you still haven't done crap about it.
The Federal Reserve was created by Congress, via a law. A real law. A law that says their mandate is for stable prices. Not 2% inflation, not "somewhat hot", stable. That's the law. The Fed has violated it for 100+ years, serially and daily. Congress has refused to put an "or else" in said law for that length of time. Why? Because Congress like this.
In 2008 The Fed broke the law again. The Federal Reserve Act forbids The Fed to buy or transact in anything that does not have a federal guarantee. May I ask if this has a federal guarantee?
When did I write about this? September 6th, 2009.
What did Congress do about The Fed buying this paper, which was clearly unlawful?
Congress retroactively gave it a backstop.
The next person who tells me that The Fed is an evil empire is going to take a load in each eye socket from me.
Congress is responsible for every single bit of this and that, my friends means we are responsible because we put Congress there, we allow them to continue to infest Washington DC and we are the reason this is going to blow up -- again.
The curtains are on fire.