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FACT: Masks against Covid-19 do not work becasue under the laws of physics they can't and both governors and mayors have and continue to kill your grandfather for political reasons.
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2020-06-26 15:25 by Karl Denninger
in Flash , 2152 references
[Comments enabled]  

Presume the following, all of which are facts:

1. CDC says we have 10x as many people who have had Coronavirus as were tested (e.g. for every symptomatic tested we have 10 who never were and are either asymptomatic or think it's something else -- they sneeze, etc)  By the way, they really do say this -- that's not conjecture on my part although I've been pointing out that by the math this was nearly certain to be the case since March.

2. We know there is material cross-immunity.  We knew this in February (Diamond Princess)  The exact percentage of such cross-immunity was not known (and still isn't) but reasonable estimates were around 50% initially, and have remained there as more data has been developed.  Specifically, there is no evidence that material community spread is maintainable once 20% of any given population has had it.  This has held up on a worldwide basis.

3. NY has recorded 390,000 positives.  Multiply by 10, that's 3.9 million people.  This is almost-exactly 20% of the population.

4. If 50%, more or less, have cross-immunity the remaining susceptible population is approximately 30%.

HERD SUPPRESSION IS 66%, MORE OR LESS, FOR AN R0 OF 3.0.

This is why you can loot, burn and riot in NY, with zero social distancing, and nothing happens.  There should have been tens of thousands of primary infections from that event and over 100,000 secondary infections before the primary infected persons got sick enough to seek treatment in NY.  The facts are that this didn't happen.

Incidentally 64% of NY State's population is in the NYC Metro; it's a monstrous percentage.

Illinois?  140,000 cases.  1.4 million infected, or ~11% of the population.  50% is immune.  That's 61%, or within spitting distance of 66%, which is why they rioted, looted and burned, all with no social distancing, and nothing material happened.  Like NY, 9.5 million of Illinois' people are in one place -- Metro Chicago, which is a monstrous 75% of the entire state's residents.

Massachusetts?  107,000 positive tests, so 1.07 million actual cases out of a population of 6.89 million, or 15.5%.  Add 50% for innate and you're right at the magic 66%, aren't you?  Did Massachusetts have "no BLM" protests?  Of course they did and of course there is a nice concentration of people in cities like Boston, but what happened?  Nothing material.  Gee, I wonder why not.....

Maryland?  Same deal, 11% prevalence.  That's 61%, or damn close to 66%.  Did they have a spike? Yes; a small one.  Gee, I wonder why?

Michigan?  They've also seen a very large increase in daily positive rates (nearly double!) and have an under 10% presumed positive incidence.  68,989 positives, 10x presumed, so 690,000 out of a population of 9.9 million or ~7%.  They're actually at ~57% so again, they can have (and have had) a decent but not exponential spike.

Now look at Florida.  114,000 positive tests, so 1.14 million actually infected.  Florida has 21.5 million residents, so ~5.3%.  Cross-immunity is still 50%, so now it's 55%, roughly.  You cannot get an exponential detonation since 66% is only 10% away, but you can get significant community transmission -- and did.  Again, it's centered where the population is; Florida has four materially-large metro areas -- Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville and the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale cluster.  Incidentally Governor DeSATAN has flat-out lied; he closed bars in response to the spike, blaming the lack of masks and social distancing in them.  He knows he's full of crap because the place where the spike count is largest, Dade County, never did reopen its bars.

Arizona's spike was mostly Maricopa county (Phoenix.)  Arizona has had 63,000 positives, so 630,000.  Arizona has 7.2 million residents, so again we run the math (~8.75% positive current or historical) and find a decent community spike can happen too (and did) but an exponential detonation cannot.

Texas?  131,917 cases reported, so 10x that is 1,319,170 infected out of 29 million population, or 4.55%.  Texas, like every other state, concentrates its population into metro areas; Dallas/Ft. Worth and Austin, specifically.  Innate immunity at 50% + 4.55 = 54.55%, below the herd level, so again a decent-sized community spike can and did happen.  Where did it happen and  what did we see in Houston and Austin over the last month?  But again, an exponential detonation cannot happen.

Tennessee is the same story.  38,000 cases, so 380,000 presumed out of 6.82 million; 5.57%, so herd is currently at ~56%.  Again, you can (and the state has) had a decent community spike.  Again, the really big numbers are in the population centers; Nashville and Memphis.  Again, an exponential detonation cannot happen but there are so-called "experts" claiming that Tennessee has "blown it".  That's a ******ned lie, the people making such statements know it, and they need to be ejected from all public-policy roles -- by any means necessary.

Wait, you say... what?  Exponential detonation cannot happen?  Why not?

Because it never could anywhere in the United States and in fact it never did happen.

It also never did anywhere else in the world.

Look at the curves; you will find that the doomsday scenario never happened anywhere, whether lockdowns were taken or not.  Peru and Brazil took completely, 100% opposite approaches and yet their death rates are near-identical.  This is hard, scientific evidence that even a lockdown does nothing; in no case do you get the "feared" exponential detonation.

That's because with the cross-immunity already present in the population of the world it couldn't happen; once you get to about half of suppression the transmission rate is dampened enough that the pattern cannot happen.

The CDC and everyone else assumed originally in all their models, and the IHME and others still do, that it can happen because they presumed that everyone was and is today susceptible.  So Florida has only seen 0.5% penetration, New York 2%, etc.

That was bull**** right up front and both Fauci and Birx admitted it when they owned the 10:1 ratio on stage today.  The so-called experts all now admit they were wrong yet people still cling to the lie.

The fact of the matter is that only one thing has removed the risk of material spikes: Herd immunity.  And it is the states that locked down hardest and first that have gotten there. Illinois, New York, Massachusetts, etc.

Now the "experts" are shifting to "well, you might infect someone who's especially at risk."

Well, the answer to that is easy: That person should take extra precautions.

My nephew Bryan died of leukemia a number of years ago.  He had two runs at it; the first time we all thought he beat it.  We were wrong; it came back and killed him.  When he was undergoing chemo everyone had to be extremely careful because his immune system was trashed; a common cold could kill him.  That wasn't everyone else's responsibility, however; we could have never considered demanding that everyone within 6' of us wear a mask and that he could go out to dinner and insist on that for everyone in the building.

Yet if one of his family members went out and brought a cold or flu home he was very likely to die.

Nonetheless my family did not, nor do we ever, demand that everyone else mitigate said risk under that circumstance.  It's unreasonable, it's unsupportable under the law and it's dead flat wrong as a matter of public policy.

Never mind that the science is clear: MASKS DO NOTHING to inhibit transmission of respiratory viruses.  This isn't my assertion it is the scientific conclusion of multiple randomized controlled trials.  They're worthless.

We now know there was never a risk of an exponential, 2+ million dead situation occurring in the United States, never mind that if that had been right we couldn't have stopped it anyway.  The CDC itself now admits this.  Birx and Fauci admitted it on CSPAN-2 this afternoon.

If you only catch via testing one in ten infections it is literally impossible to test and trace your way to suppression!  That's obvious and therefore any such attempt is STUPID; you must successfully trace seven of every ten potential transmissions; that's impossible with a 10:1 symptomatic to asymptomatic infection rate.  Further if the highest community infection rate numbers are where the most-stringent orders were issued then THAT obviously doesn't work either.

Both of these are indisputable facts.

Now add this: There is no depression of transmission with increasing absolute humidity.  This is proof that this is not primarily an aerosol-transmitted virus as that bit of mystery was cracked over a decade ago and explains why flu "disappears" for the most part in the summer.  That lack of correlation means it is being transmitted manually.  I have been pointing this out since February.

Again: Every single aerosol-transmitted virus has a Rt (actual transmission rate) inversely correlated with absolute humidity.

Every.
Single.
One.

But Covid-19 does not.  Therefore the majority of transmission is not occurring via this route.

Period.

The time for bull**** is over folks.  Yes, people are going to get this bug.  Yes, immunity will probably wane and when it does you can get it again, just like the flu.  Yes, if you're at particular risk take special precautions for yourself.

But for everyone else?

LIVE YOUR LIFE, ENJOY ALL YOUR USUAL SOCIAL EXPERIENCES AND TELL STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS TO GO BLOW GOATS AND THAT THEY WILL CUT THE CRAP RIGHT NOW.  WASH YOUR DAMN HANDS WITH SOAP AND WATER, FREQUENTLY -- NOT HAND SANITIZER.  THAT IS THE BEST MITIGATION WE HAVE AS IT ATTACKS THE ACTUAL ISSUE -- MANUAL TRANSMISSION, THAT IS, ON YOUR HANDS.

THEY KNOW THEY'RE LYING AT THIS POINT AND NOW YOU DO TOO.

It has now been admitted in public, by the very "experts" claiming to be the ones making the "rules", that they were wrong from the outset about the susceptibility and thus the potential range of outcomes.

In addition Birx admitted that the severe cases are in fact being successfully handled by protocols that THE VERY NIH FAUCI HEADS claims should not be used as of last night.  I'm sure someone's hastily changing that after she clowned them on live TV.

I've been saying all of this since the start -- and now even they're admitting it on air.

The game's over folks and exactly nobody should give quarter, of any sort, to anyone who tries to run any bull**** otherwise.

smiley

PS: Incidentally, in terms of markets, if the Screaming Karens run into a barrel up their nose as the public wakes up to the above facts then the very last thing you want to be, in market terms, is short anything in equity or credit. 

Especially those areas that are partially or wholly shut in today.

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