The Market Ticker
Commentary on The Capital Markets- Category [Employment]
2017-03-10 07:51 by Karl Denninger
in Employment , 316 references
[Comments enabled]  

So the first "Trump" jobs report is now in....

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 235,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in construction, private educational services, manufacturing, health care, and mining.

So who lost?  Retail.  Hmmm.....

Let's have a look inside at the non-adjusted numbers:

Quit sucking off Trump eh?  Yes, the monthly (blue line) change is quite solid.  Where's the red (annualized rate of change) line -- that is, unadjusted but on a same-month basis?  It's down compared to last month.

Now is it bad?  No, it's not.  But it's not a rip-snorting number for February compared against last February.

Second, while the unadjusted number is 1.067 million last February was 1.023 million, statistically identical to what we just printed.

Trump bump?  Bull****!  Who was President in February of 2016?

Incidentally "not in labor force" dropped last February too, just like it did this time, and last year it dropped by a larger gross number than this February.  In other words what you're seeing here is a normal seasonal move, not some "Trump-inspired" confidence.

Argue otherwise and the facts say you're lying -- unless you can somehow magically transport Trump into office for 2016.

Now here's the other interesting chart:

As usually happens (and which I noted had better happen this month) employment:population tipped upward this month.  It usually does.  The last few months had threatened a change in trend, but true to form we got a 4-tick upward move there.  Again, not a "Trump bump" as exactly the same 4 tick upward move happened last year.

On the internals there has been no uptick in workweek, but the trend in average hourly earnings continues, which isn't bad.  But again, this isn't a "Trump" thing, it is continuation of what was seen for the last year or so.  Meh, in other words.

Everyone in the so-called "business media" is trying to attribute this to "animal spirits" in the entrepreneurial area and "Trump."  CNBS was running that crap this morning and and it is a factual and knowing lie.  The figures from last February, when Obama was in office, make this clear and it is only through a willful and intentional refusal to look at last year's figures to compare by which such a statement can be made.

Enjoy whatever "bump" you get in the market from this today; if you are in any way influenced in your behavior by the so-called financial media make damn sure that if it turns out to be crap you hold them accountable for their lies down the road.

/Long kneepad manufacturers for those of you lined up for your turn.

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