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2024-04-05 09:24 by Karl Denninger
in Employment , 368 references
[Comments enabled]  

Here comes the fun....

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 303,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and construction.

Of course two of the three are basically (from an economic reality perspective) a tax; one absolute and forced, the other coerced.

72,000 jobs added this month in health care?  How many of those were doctors or nurses?  I'll bet less than 10%.  The rest are responsible for making sure the amount of money spent goes up.  You're not really going to try to tell me that in one month we had to add someone in medical care for each 4,600 people in America, are you?  I mean, we're not all standing in line to get into a clinic or hospital, are we?

Employment showed little or no change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; and professional and business services.

The economy portion that actually improves people's lives -- you know, by making things we then want and delivering them to people -- that went nowhere last month.

On the unadjusted household numbers the raw figure was +1.041 million, which is roughly in-line for a March with no real surprise.  The number of couch surfers ("not in labor force") was down by 502,000, accounting for about half of the job "adds."  Note that the household survey doesn't count the number of jobs (that is, they ask "do you have a job?") so someone who has two counts as one there, where in the establishment survey they count employment by the firm, so if you have two jobs it will show as 2 in that survey.  This isn't intentional misdirection -- its just a different means of measurement.

Of particular note and which should be good for immediate alarm in the asset markets which are all expecting lower interest rates was an 0.7% monthly change in employment compensation.  That annualizes to 8.7% so if you think rates are coming down with employment wage costs going up by nearly 9% on an annualized basis I will strongly suggest you go see someone about your particular delusionary tendencies.

As Kashkari said yesterday "if inflation continues to stall" there will be no cuts at all and this is yet another indication, along with both the PPI and ISM prices paid, that it not only is "stalling" it is reaccelerating.

That is exactly what I have expected from the data going back the last several months and why, in my forward projection Ticker for 2024, I did not expect to see materially lower -- if lower at all -- Fed Funds rates.  Add to this that Congress continues to deficit spend on an insane basis and there is no way you are going to see inflation pressures wane -- and thus the current inversion of the curve, with the TNX trading roughly a full percent under the IRX is flat-out nuts.

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2018-10-05 08:51 by Karl Denninger
in Employment , 332 references
 

This is a bad number -- especially on the back of last month's report.

The unemployment rate declined to 3.7 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 134,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.

This is utterly nasty and the drop in the unemployment rate is entirely due to an increase in the NILF figure -- people who have left the workforce.

Let's look inside:

 

In a word: Meh.

The 12 month change is below 2m.  The rate has been over 2m for roughly the last year, but now it is solidly below.  That's bad news, because the increase in working-age population is approximately 2 million, so if you can't manage to put up that number on a 12 month rolling basis you are losing ground.

 

Heh, look at that "formal unemployment rate" -- it's a multi-generational low.  But does it mean anything?

Not really since there the employment:population ratio is nowhere near the 1969 figures.  Having an "unemployment rate" that is extremely low because people aren't looking for jobs but are either sucking off public assistance or otherwise out of the workforce isn't positive -- it's negative since only working people pay taxes.

Have you looked at the annualized "debt to the penny" figures lately?  No?  Well maybe you should.  I'll help you out with that in the next few days in my usual annual report on exactly how much bullshit Washington DC has emitted into the "economy" and thus the fraud embedded in the GDP "expansion" rate.

Once again having a Bachelors or better did not outperform; all of the educational categories gained, but both high school dropouts and degree-holders managed one tick of advancement.  "Some College" and High School graduates both gained more, however, meaning that once again we are making McJobs and not, as is often said, positions for the "highly educated."

There are also indications of slack in the part-time statistics but this month I ignore them because of Florence.  If they persist into next month, however, they are likely an early indication of a negative turn in the economy and employment situation.

We shall see.

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