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2022-05-06 09:11 by Karl Denninger
in Employment , 620 references
[Comments enabled]  

Oh boy, look at the pretty pictures!

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 428,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing.

Watch me put lipstick on this pig!

And what a pig it is....

On the household survey, unadjusted, employment fell 115,000 last month.  Further, nearly a million (940,000) people left the labor force; despite the job market being "tight" and "we need people" more people, by a million, decided to bag it entirely and "disappear" out of "we know what they're doing" number.

That's defined, by the way, as we know you're there but you're neither employed or unemployed, the latter of which you only are if you would like a job.

But it was the internals that made me sit up today.

Typically there is either a moderating or accelerating force in these numbers that's hidden in the hours worked.  That wasn't the case this time; it was basically flat, and that's a huge adjustment because every tick is worth a huge number of jobs.  Put a couple of tenths on there and a -500,000 number doesn't look so bad, and a +500,000 number is smoking good.

Never mind the employment-population ratio, which is the one number that determines long-term stability in government financing.  It was down a tick and while one month does not a trend make it has been rising strongly.

No, the real 900lb Gorilla in this report is one nobody but myself that I'm aware of talks about, and that's the net change in participation among the educational groups.  This month there was material loss in those with Bachelor Degrees and better -- by four ticks.  This was a net loss in that group of 275,000 employed people among that segment of the population, eclipsing the net loss at the top line.

This is a recessionary print folks -- an early-stage one, but one nonetheless and yet with inflation and labor costs where it is the Fed has no choice but to continue to tighten policy and the longer and slower they go the worse this will be.

They should have put 200 basis points on Wednesday, and 200 more in the next meeting.

But of course they didn't, they won't, and as a result don't expect good things -- you're not going to get them.

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2018-10-05 08:51 by Karl Denninger
in Employment , 331 references
 

This is a bad number -- especially on the back of last month's report.

The unemployment rate declined to 3.7 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 134,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.

This is utterly nasty and the drop in the unemployment rate is entirely due to an increase in the NILF figure -- people who have left the workforce.

Let's look inside:

 

In a word: Meh.

The 12 month change is below 2m.  The rate has been over 2m for roughly the last year, but now it is solidly below.  That's bad news, because the increase in working-age population is approximately 2 million, so if you can't manage to put up that number on a 12 month rolling basis you are losing ground.

 

Heh, look at that "formal unemployment rate" -- it's a multi-generational low.  But does it mean anything?

Not really since there the employment:population ratio is nowhere near the 1969 figures.  Having an "unemployment rate" that is extremely low because people aren't looking for jobs but are either sucking off public assistance or otherwise out of the workforce isn't positive -- it's negative since only working people pay taxes.

Have you looked at the annualized "debt to the penny" figures lately?  No?  Well maybe you should.  I'll help you out with that in the next few days in my usual annual report on exactly how much bull**** Washington DC has emitted into the "economy" and thus the fraud embedded in the GDP "expansion" rate.

Once again having a Bachelors or better did not outperform; all of the educational categories gained, but both high school dropouts and degree-holders managed one tick of advancement.  "Some College" and High School graduates both gained more, however, meaning that once again we are making McJobs and not, as is often said, positions for the "highly educated."

There are also indications of slack in the part-time statistics but this month I ignore them because of Florence.  If they persist into next month, however, they are likely an early indication of a negative turn in the economy and employment situation.

We shall see.

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