Inflation is going to go through the roof, and the supply chain will continue to crumble, along with infrastructure (remember that bridge over the Mississippi?)

Bluto wrote..

On politics, I think the conservatives/Republicans are also going to wipe out the dems in local elections. The former really haven't paid attention, unless they had kids in the school system, to those elections, but will now especially with CRT, wokeism, trans-story hour, etc... This will shift things hard right, and with a Supreme Court that is VERY pro-states rights, this will make "where you live" more important than ever. Maybe some of these states will even start going after the health care monopolies by passing and enforcing legislation?

And yet nothing will change, at least not in the extremely rapid timeframe (weeks/months) that's necessary to stave off a financial fiasco. The burden will still ultimately fall upon the few of us in this country who actually grow anything and know how to fix shit. All the while, the bleating and moaning of the mob will reach a crescendo, never once evaluating themselves to see what each of them could've done differently.

Karl, it's inspiring to see you so bright and cherry on your prognostications. Don't see anything I would disagree much with. I particularly like your take on hyperinflation. After educating myself on inflation vs. hyperinflation I have come to understand the difference and causes. Well, as well as a recovering welder can. I am curious though how the FED increasing the interest rate changes actions. With all the trouble has loaning $$$ at 1-2% is it going to make that much a difference to the retail borrowers at 3%?
Just watching the year end here on the southwest edge of the Llano Estacado. The Russian/Mexican/Germans had a great farming year and lots of $$$ sloshing around in the local economy. Here too small land parcels of 10 acres or less prices have become insane! Twent-five acres down the road from me sold recently for $300K. That may not be a lot in some places but here it's insane. Cash.
The Russian/Mexican/Germans don't borrow from banks which upsets the local bankers. They finance through their religious facilities.
Interesting place this county has become.
Keep up the cherry outlook.

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Blessed, Grateful and Living a Dream

@TickerGuy wrote

Quote:

a small group of assholes who think they can buy everything in sight and convert it to rentals of one form or another

This financial model works when investors can borrow at 2% and never worry about a declining market. That is what 12 years of Zirp has given us. America truly doesn't make things anymore. It just monetizes everything that has been made.

What has transpired in real estate and the financial markets since Covid is mind boggling. Of course when trillions of dollars are just handed out what else would we expect?

What boggles my mind is how worthless / undesirable rustbelt land has become in the midst of this froth. Oh, if there is a habitable structure it can be monetized. But a piece of dirt is useless as it costs too much for the local market to support new construction.

Just an example, for sixty years people have been moving out of western New York. The states tax policies are prohibitive to business investment so there is no trigger to stop the slide. I wonder, who ends up owning the property? What are the owners going to do with it?

Yet, because people have to live somewhere and they need to be able to work, they go where the work is - and so the crowded places get more crowded and the rural areas become ever more zombie like, well they do get a dollar general - woohoo!!

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Or do they half-ass interest rate increases and risk the worst of both worlds: a catastrophic 2022 midterm election, and persistent inflation into the 2024 election?

Machiavelli says it will be the half-ass middle course. He says so in "The Discourses". That's because its laziness and human nature to take the "soft" option. So, that's what will happen.

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Its all in the mitochondria.

Soylent Green is people!

@Tickerguy

You sound pretty down on DeSantis. What are the issues with him? From what I have seen from afar, he looks better than most of the other GOP options. Hardly what I would like, but your evaluation gives me some pause.

Tickerguy wrote..

To replace the VP you need concurrence of both the House and Senate

They could "resign her" either via some scandal or $$$ incentive. Then Brandon nominates Hitlery and she's approved. He then kicks the bucket or resigns and VOILA, another unelected President like Ford.

Regarding RVs, don't buy a new one. Yeah, they have a warranty but the RV forums are filled with tales of woe where it's taking months and months to get an appointment with the dealer's service dept.

Buy a used one where the previous owner has already fixed the problems.

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You cannot reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into.

I think Healthcare is going to hold on for a long time to come. No way does either party throw the elderly voters to the wolves by letting Medicare blow up. Not before 2024.

Trust in the edifice of doctors is being destroyed, but the juggernaut will continue eating the seed corn.

Hillary would never get through The Senate. No fucking way. ANY play in this direction is instantly obvious as a ploy to put said person in the White House.

You might actually cause a real no-bullshit shooting revolution if they attempted that with Hillary, since SHE LOST in an attempt to gain the office on her own. I'll bet there are plenty of people who go black-bag if it was even WHISPERED at, say much less attempted, and there's no way to know who they are.

Political animals are fairly simple creatures but they're not THAT stupid.

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No way is hitlery going to become veep.

Unless she's threatening kamala with arkancide, kamala ain't voluntarily going anywhere. She's too much of a narcissist and too close to a touchdown to go anywhere.

Yep CK but the amusing part of it is that if she "wins" she gets an empty, mostly-worthless seat since she won't be able to nominate anyone to the VP's slot and have them approved, and in addition she ALSO won't have a tie-break in the Senate either. She also can't replace Breyer, should he retire, for the same reason nor can she nominate a single left-winger anywhere that requires Senate approval.

While anything truly centrist might get through the ENTIRE left-wing grab-bag goes up in smoke instantly.

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Karl, I cannot thank you enough! I am so grateful for your generously shared daily wisdom as it has helped keep me sane throughout this fleabag year of LIES. Unlike most people out there who prefer to keep their heads buried in the sand, I am one who thrives on MORE info and you surely do provide it! And you bet I will seek truth as coof killed my Dad in February (insert RAGE here), and it nearly tried to kill me in August. And I am RIGHT THERE WITH YOU as far as your circle growing quite small (former friend actually told me I was "too smart for my own good" - talk about avoidance). I hope you never feel alone as I am definitely in your tribe from afar and know others here feel same! If I saw you in a non-Kroger grocery I would hug your neck as we say in TN. Happy New Year to you and your family - God bless Karl and our daily ticker! And sorry for emotional post - I am moved to express gratitude these days.

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Political violence escalation. Nope. Not yet anyway. Clean miss.

Michael Yon expected this as well. He thought it would start in May. I did not expect overt political violence. I did expect the black riots that we saw summer of last year. Even this did not occur.

Again, if we have either kind of violence this coming year, it will start in May because that's when it get warm. If we do have political violence, it will start with assassination of various political figures (both elected and unelected) as well as the establishment favorites (media figures and the like). I read somewhere that Fauci is already under some kind of protection because of threats against his life. Of course we all know the real people who do things do not make threats before hand. Only blowhards and mentally deficient people make threats.

I really want the housing bubble to end and I especially want the medical complex to take it in the shorts as predicted here.

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Its all in the mitochondria.

Soylent Green is people!

redo on my reply which should have been kept to topics at hand: THANK YOU KARL for your excellent information about ALL THINGS this year! I will still hug your neck in non-Kroger!

You just made me tingle Karl. :)

It's gonna be a great year.

My favorite Ticker topic.

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Father forgive me for the times I craved a place at a table that you would have flipped.

I still think they'll go full Weekend At Bernies with Biden trying to get him to the 2yrs+1day mark.

They have the delusion that Kneepads can hold the seat for 10 years minus a day, so they'll shoot for that.

The lack of foresight by the Democrats has absolutely baffled me. They literally backed themselves into a corner by nominating Kamala Harris as VP nominee. They have to keep Joe Biden on life support as president just to prevent everything cited by Karl from happening. The longer they keep him propped up, the more he'll appear to be impaired, and the closer he comes to leaving office feet first. There never have been any good outcomes.

The only thing I can figure out is that the Democrats overplayed their hand hoping to cram through all of their nutty left wing legislation before the midterms.

Even giving them the benefit of the doubt, their plan could have only been a suicide mission.

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"Economists are no different than the prophets of ancient Pompeii who reassured that Mt Vesuvius would never blow. After all, it never had before." Baxter Black, DVM and Cowboy Poet

"You can avoi

I always look forward to these predictions. Pretty good record for 2021.

I am curious what makes you think that the back half of 2022/early 2023 will be good economically. I am a perma bear but attempting to look at things from a neutral perspective, we've pulled forward demand for so many years I can't see the consumer based economy holding up much longer. Plus we have essentially zero population growth in the US now, and excess mortality all causes is picking up again.

Trump = no good DeSantis = no good ? = no good

anyone even not possible will not be perfect: DEFINE PERFECT

everyone vote RINO

maybe Jesus or Klaus come save you

hope you are offended

@Keepingmyoptions I see 0% of Michelle Obama running for president. For the same reason as Oprah, she does not seem like the type to give up a life of absolute luxury to do something incredibly difficult and potentially dangerous.

@AZtrader Berettas are going up? I was thinking about an M9A4 in a few months. Might have to move that purchase up.

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The World is Quiet Here.

As for the predictions...

Remember that when Japan was flying high and everyone thought they would both rule and own the Earth, the Nikkei hit 38,900-ish 1989/1990. It tanked to 15,950, or so, mid-1992, then bottomed out in the 8,000 range early 2009, and it has taken until today to recover to only 28,676 (the last I checked). I'm not smart enough to predict specifically, but I believe the markets in the US will follow the same trajectory - eventually.

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"Economists are no different than the prophets of ancient Pompeii who reassured that Mt Vesuvius would never blow. After all, it never had before." Baxter Black, DVM and Cowboy Poet

"You can avoi

By any set of standards, the Dems would get blown out of the water during the 22 election cycle. But as Big Jo hisself said, its who counts the votes. Consequently, theyre not really worried except maybe for those who arent in the know. This changes the prognosis on many fronts, but Karl is otherwise safe- this year ahead.

Im also thinking that there is a near certainty that something Dragon-ish or Big Bear-ish blows up, and the Rag Heads arent standing still with their little glow-in-the-dark toys either. Someone else could try to Ban Hammer them. The Vacuum in DC is a veritable invitation.

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I remember the Diamond Princess.


Slowly at first, then all of a sudden.

Karl, I completely agree on the medical implosion, but I'm curious if you have any specifics of how you think it's going to play out. More concierge clinics? A war by the AMA and FDA and local agencies on that sort of practice? Most of what we spend health care dollars on can probably be done, though some prescription meds and things like surgical repair can't.


Most of the economic predictions have already levitated a lot longer after running off the cliff than I expected. They're all inevitable, just a matter of whether Willey E. looks down into the canyon this year. With the number of people at the top of this Ponzi scheme and the amount of institutional control they have, they'll run it as long as they can. I suspect it collapses when the institutions run out of juice.

Just to clarify, I'm not suggesting that Hitlery subverts her way into VP and Pres. I agree with Karl thst it's too transparent or hamfisted. No, I think she will announce candidacy for senate or President again and quite early. This will be done to avoid indictment by Durham and to reinvigorate the CF.