2021: The Year In Review, And A Wee Light In The Tunnel
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Logging in or registering will improve your experience here
Main Navigation
Sarah's Resources You Should See
Full-Text Search & Archives
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions. For investment, legal or other professional advice specific to your situation contact a licensed professional in your jurisdiction.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility; author(s) may have positions in securities or firms mentioned and have no duty to disclose same.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be sent unmodified to lawmakers via print or electronic means or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media, to republish full articles, or for any commercial use (which includes any site where advertising is displayed.)

Submissions or tips on matters of economic or political interest may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Considering sending spam? Read this first.

2021-12-27 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 1407 references Ignore this thread
2021: The Year In Review, And A Wee Light In The Tunnel *
[Comments enabled]

As is my practice I will do this once again....

But first, scoring last year.

  • Harris/Biden inaugurated.  Yep.

  • Senate NOT going 50/50.  Miss.  It did and is.

  • Rumblings of secession.  Yep.  Multiple states, with the most-noted being Florida, surprisingly enough.  Nonetheless this was not really much of a rumble and a "Cesar" in DeSatan is arguably worse than Biden, so on balance its a miss.

  • Covid insanity collapsing.  Nope.  Karen still screams.

  • Dooming public acceptance of jabs.  Depends on how you count it.  If you count it on coercive tactics that's a solid score. Acceptance is just that -- not a gun up the nose.  I'm taking that point.

  • Inability to interdict spread will be resisted -- and won't matter.  Yep.  Delta and now Omicron have proved all the "mitigations" were worth zero.  Now even CNN admits it, yet it doesn't matter, as I predicted.  I said we'd learn an effective nothing, and, well, we learned an effective nothing.

  • Bread and circuses still work.  Indeed.  Now the backlash, but that's for this coming year, isn't it?  Yep.

  • Inflation is coming.  Oh boy, did it.  Do I get two points for that one?

  • The money-printing grab-bag will continue.  Alright, do I get two for this one as well?

  • The left will go back to violence.  Well...... I guess that one is tougher.  On the one hand yes, but on the other no.  This one is a tough call, but what I thought I'd see is not what we got, although we got plenty with wildly-elevated murder rates and monstrous amounts of smash-n-grab and similar.  I'm going to be tough on myself and score that as a miss, as what I thought we'd get was more-akin to "burn it all to ash" ala "I can't breathe!" style nonsense.  We didn't, so it's a miss.

  • They'll ignore the lessons of Christmas Day in Nashville in 2020.  Yep.  And we have paid for it, but not in really ridiculous terms.  Yet.  Log2j, lots of service outages, but.... no "grand" exploit.  I said I wouldn't be surprised, so that wasn't a "it'll happen", and what I did expect (ignoring it) did, so I'll take that point.

  • Political violence escalation. Nope.  Not yet anyway.  Clean miss.

  • Bond market coming apart.  No, although you have to wonder what Powell is actually thinking.  He's lying by the way, but so far getting away with it.  Miss.

  • Strum and furor out of DC, but no real progress. Check.  I don't know how in the Hell I could have predicted that one better.  Let's Go Brandon!

  • My cat will remain my best friend.  Indeed.  The list of people I hang around with and actually like (as opposed to a purely-transactional experience) has gone to nearly zero, and I doubt it will change in the future.  Point.

So I score it as 9 to 6.  Not terrible for a one year prognostication.

How about for 2022?

Well, here we go, because why not?  I will intentionally omit anything related to the virus directly because of where this is posted, and because of the censorship of the big techs.  Never mind that you all know where I come down on most related topics in that respect anyway, so let's keep it to social, political and economic for this year.

  • Inflation will not calm down.  Yes, it will ebb and flow some, but this is a math problem at the end of the day and until Congress cuts it out it isn't going to stop unless The Fed says "nuts!" and, so far, they haven't.  Incidentally for those who say it will be "hyperinflation" you're nuts; I'll take the other side of that bet every day and twice on Sunday.  But in terms of trouble in the supermarket, yep.

  • The Democrats are going to get obliterated in the midterms.  Let's define that: They absolutely lose the Senate and I'll give it 50/50 they lose The House.  In any event without the Senate anything Biden wants is done, and so is anything Pelosi wants, no matter if she keeps the gavel or not.  My prediction is that the Senate will be at least 52-48 and it might be worse than that for the "D" side, so even if they can peel off a defector it doesn't help.  In short Biden's administration has about six months of actual life left in it after which its a dead letter with the upcoming elections and then the change in power comes the following January.  As I've pointed out for 20 years despite the screaming people always vote their wallet and the Democrats have literally stolen their wallets with inflation.  They're done, even though Trump caused half of it or more they're going to eat the blame for it, just as Carter did.  If the bracketing predictions (above and below) prove up in 2023 inflation will ebb as the Republicans take control of the legislature and 2024 will mark the end of the current Democrat party; all that will be left is the screaming Socialists like AOC who will be lucky to have 150 seats in The House.

  • The Fed is going to get forced into actual liquidity drains.  Not the lies of the last couple of months, real drains.  By spring, with inflation still raging, they'll have little choice -- and inflation is shifting away from fuels (which become less relevant in terms of "need" as heating season winds down anyway) into other core staples.  There comes a point at which the exponential nature of this deterioration is going to force their hand and I think we're a couple months away from it happening.  They won't like it, but they'll do it.

  • The USSC will "split the baby" on the abortion decision and nobody is going to like it.  This could be very dangerous in terms of court-packing except for one problem -- the Democrats can't get it through Congress, and they lose this upcoming November.  Ditto for any other decision that could threaten "court-packing."  It's not going to happen folks; you can't do that on reconciliation and there's not a snowball's chance in Hell you get it past a filibuster.

  • The equity market is extremely vulnerable over the next six to nine months.  Risk:reward is wildly unfavorable.  It will shift coming into the elections but for the time being I would be very, very selective about anything with exposure to a blow-up in the term structure (meaning any firm with potential debt coverage issues), any of the "social" stocks and anything levered to government tax farming.  I'll put the odds of a blow-up from now until the last few weeks before the election, defined as a 25% draw-down or worse, at 50:50.  The compounding effect of that on the midterm elections, if it occurs, will be substantial.

  • There is no short-term supply chain relief coming.  The problem is simply this: It's only smart to offshore labor to China when you can use wage and environmental disparities; it is otherwise stupid since transportation is never free.  In an inflationary environment this is especially nasty because if the supply chains lengthen you also increase your risk in that regard.  Being unable to quote prices with a reasonable degree of forward accuracy makes long-duration, long-distance supply chains wildly dangerous.

  • Business is going to get it in both holes.  Between labor productivity and costs, which will continue to deteriorate due to multiple factors (inflation, how business has treated employees, supply chain issues and more) and the inability to put any sort of forward pricing certainty in place there is serious trouble afoot.  Those with the longest international supply chains and heavily labor-intensive outfits get it the worst, but nobody is immune.  Businesses can claim its about "mandates" all they want but from the perspective of the employee it is all the fault of their boss, period, and they're right.  Businesses can tell the government to screw goats and shut down, refusing to comply with mandates by refusing to operate.  How long does DC or any other city or state survive without food, fuel, power and similar?  Hours.  Who has the power in this relationship again?  Yeah.  May I remind you (again) that the only difference between sex and rape is consent?

  • The blue hives are in particularly-serious trouble.  Mandate all you want; you can't force people to come.  All of these locations are wildly dependent on leisure, business travel or both.  Those who live in such places can and will go out of said cities on a temporary basis to do things such as eat, and if it continues they can and will move.  This is a losing game in a big way for these cities and towns.  The losses when it comes to hospitality and optional firms such as theatres, restaurants and similar, along with the tax revenue losses, will be catastrophic and once someone packs and moves they're gone and won't be coming back.  I'm expecting a quarter to a third or more of all remaining restaurant and similar firms in the blue hive cities to permanently close within the next 12 months and without the tax revenue city services cannot be provided.  If the city governments do not relent before warmer weather comes Detroit will be reprised in multiple places including New York, Chicago, Boston and elsewhere.

  • Significant geopolitical trouble breaks out.  I'll give it one of two places -- Ukraine or any of the Chinese issues, specifically their Muslim population and Taiwan.  Of the two Ukraine has the higher probability.  The facts of the matter are that Europe has sucked off our military spending for decades when it comes to such matters and frankly, if they're pissed off about both energy and defense they should have done something about it instead of whining and shutting down their existing energy sources.  I have zero sympathy for them and I don't care if Putin decides he's had enough of NATO.

  • Ghislaine Maxwell's trial is not the end of that story.  I'll predict that it blows up this coming year in a lot of people's faces.  What you've seen at CNN, for example, I'll bet is just a start.  This crap has been going on for a very long time and the "bench" on it in terms of who's in it up to their necks is deep and long.  It does not end with her by any stretch of the imagination, nor with one dude at CNN either.  While I don't expect the entire sordid mess to come apart in 2022 I do expect serious cracks in the dike and they don't have enough fingers to try to plug the holes.  Watch this one closely as it could easily go prompt critical and if it does all bets are off in terms of the scope and depth of the damage.

  • Biden is finished this year.  He's done.  Either he dies literally or he bows out due to "health."  It's wildly clear at this point the man is an empty head with advanced mental deterioration.  Repeated strokes, and he's had several, have a way of doing that to people and so does age-related dementia generally.  Like it or not here comes Kamala but it won't matter because of the above; she's even less liked than Biden is, so Seat Warmer Harris it shall be.

  • Business uncertainty lifts in the back half.  Yes, I know, I said it looked like crap up front and will be for most of the year.  But not all, and with the Federal Government basically out of the picture as of the first of 2023 economically and market-wise the forward view looks better.  Beware holding a bearish view politically or economically beyond the November elections; you are likely to get your face ripped off.

  • Housing, as a bubble, is done.  God help you if you overpaid and it wasn't a lateral move.  For those whom it was, you traded one bubble for another so provided you didn't dump your equity percentage blowing the rest on other things you won't be hurt badly.  For those who entered into it from 2020 forward and especially for those who thought the investment side was going to continue to skyrocket you're going to get it in both holes.  Between cities doing rankly stupid things (such as NY mandating no natural gas in new buildings) that will wildly raise operating costs, tax term structure going to Hell in anywhere blue and the collapse in real labor value among productivity and costs you've got pressure on all sides in this part of the market.  My base case is that returns are wildly negative accounting for that over the next five years and 20-50% capital losses are possible from top to bottom.  Those who reset their leverage thinking the current prices were "a floor" are in for a date with Mr. Hands.  This is not a one year story and the worst of it is not a 2022 story either, but it will become apparent this year.  I do not expect things to clear until 2024-25 or even perhaps later.

  • The Medical Complex has a serious problem on their hands - both in credibility and cost.  Sure, some will be ok, but not much of it.  I suspect this trend is generational and may not clear for a decade or more.  It will be quite interesting to see the screaming and whining that comes out of these folks as their naked swimming becomes exposed for all, and it will.  This is the year it becomes apparent to enough people to matter.  Since this is 20% of the economy, one dollar in five, its an economic earthquake that will send shockwaves through colleges, government agencies and businesses.  This has been a long time coming and both fully earned and deserved, especially for the TikTok dancers and those exhorting othersIf you're in that sector with investments get out -- it will be radioactive within six to twelve months and stay that way for years.

  • The credentialism of the so-called "top schools" will deteriorate markedly and some may collapse.  The idea that you can con people into paying $50,000/year to sit at home and watch zoom calls is flat-out insanity.  It has long been apparent that the majority of the "value" in such places is the "ins" you get by going there, living there and hob-nobbing with people in low places -- not the education "per-se."  That these institutions are so arrogant as to believe they can destroy the social interaction that is the very basis of their current value equation and not have that blow up in their face is astounding, but here we are.  This is a realization that should have come 20 years ago, but like all such ego-driven nonsense it tends to go on a lot longer when the red warning light is on before someone blows off their own hand -- or head.

  • Trump is done, and so are those who cling to him.  Run away now or be run over.  The man will become glowing nuclear waste before the election.  Exactly who fills the vacuum is not currently known, but the leading odds dude is likely DeSantis.  I don't like that very much but it is what it is and the bench sucks on both sides of the aisle -- it's not just the GOP in that regard.

As always I may add more to this and revise predictions until 12:01 on January 1st, 2022 at which point other than typos its a time capsule and we'll see how it all plays out come the end of 2022.

Oh, as for that wee light in the tunnel referenced up top?

IT'S A TRAIN.

Go to responses (registration required to post)
 



 
Comments on 2021: The Year In Review, And A Wee Light In The Tunnel
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Page 1 of 10  First123456789Last
Blanca 472 posts, incept 2020-07-25
2021-12-27 07:58:55

tickerguy wrote:
Quote:
Housing, as a bubble, is done

I agree. The form of its collapse and what locations will take the biggest hits is a topic for further discussion. Clearly, higher interest rates will damage housing prices. Building materials may continue to increase in price due to inflation but will likely fall when new construction slows as interest rates rise.

I recently moved from CO to FL. I was tired of shoveling snow and CO politics were clearly moving in the wrong direction. I debated renting long term in FL. Rents are ridiculously high. Unremarkable one bedroom apartments are over $3000 in some places and supply is low. What I found most interesting is that apartment rental prices change on a daily basis, set by the large corporate owners and market conditions. There were no apartments available at the online advertised prices. Fees are outrageous. There are amenity fees, fees to set up postal deliveries, application fees, fees for each occupant, pet fees, pet DNA fees, and so on. Leases run dozens of pages. Short term leases are virtually non-existent. I told one apartment rental consultant that their application process was more involved than qualifying for a mortgage.

I chose to roll over my CO gains into the FL housing market. Perhaps I should have waited for the crash and rented in the meantime. I don't plan to move for a long time. The FL market is still not as expensive as CO but it is catching up, probably due to the migration out of NY, IL, and CA.

Massive money printing, worthless government spending, and interest rate manipulation create all kinds of asset bubbles and inflation and misery for the average American. If you are a first time homebuyer who doesn't have gains to "rollover", you are screwed.
Tickerguy 188k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2021-12-27 08:07:37

@Blanca the RRE market here has gotten more insane, which I didn't think was possible. Inventory is historically troublesome this time of year here and in a lot of other markets, but the pricing I'm seeing at present is so far beyond stupid its not believable.

This is not an area where there's a bunch of hoity-toity rich stock brokers either. But what it DOES have (like everywhere else) is a small group of assholes who think they can buy everything in sight and convert it to rentals of one form or another, whether AirBNB or, in the places where that's prohibited (which is becoming increasingly so) pseudo-deals like that which get around it with 30 day leases and similar -- at astronomical prices. What's left in the actual single-family market is price-to-value numbers that simply make no sense and are impossible to believe someone can actually pay for given prevailing wages in the area.

I'm out of the 2-year lockout (long-term cap gains) next month but there's nowhere to really try to monetize it by moving again that also is somewhere I want to live and which has reasonable odds of remaining free of screaming stupidity in the political sphere. If I get forced into shooting, looting and burning then I do, but I sure as hell am not going to volunteer for it by living somewhere that increases the odds.

----------
NASA faked out a computer instead of running the test.
Then tried to launch and aborted instead of going "BOOOM!"
Did they abort the JABS after faking THOSE tests?
Prof_dilligaf 407 posts, incept 2021-09-02
2021-12-27 08:09:15

"Trump is done, and so are those who cling to him."

I should've saved a screenshot of the "marketing" being sent to me (not that I asked) for his new "social media empire!". It was the most braindead, tone-deaf thing I've ever seen, and I've actually watched some TikTok videos.
Uncephalized 37 posts, incept 2021-11-14
2021-12-27 08:29:08

I bought a bigger house in the middle of this market. But, I bought it for cash with an inheritance that was mainly funded by the sale of a house worth about the same. So I guess that is a lateral move of sorts. Anyway, I didn't buy it as an investment. I wanted it for the modest acreage it came with, room for my growing family, and the chance to live in semirural Tennessee instead of a blue city in the Southwest borderlands. No debt on it, so I don't care if it loses value for a few years. We're not going anywhere.
Uncephalized 37 posts, incept 2021-11-14
2021-12-27 08:29:14

@Tickerguy maybe you've already covered this at length in the past, or don't want to go into it, but what's your take on whether Brandon actually legally earned a majority of electoral votes?
Capcomp 315 posts, incept 2009-09-10
2021-12-27 08:34:27

@Blanca - Our youngest son moved out to an apartment last December. We went with him to the leasing office to see how they set the rent.

They have a printout for the month and your rent depends on what day of the month you move in and how long the lease is.

For moving in the first 1/2 of December the cheapest monthly rent was for a 10 month lease. I attribute that to a unit available in October is easier to rent than one coming up in December.

When renewed the rent changed minimally as he had been paying on time. A fair number of units were behind in rent due to the rent moratorium.

In Northern VA the inventory of single family homes for sale is still tight. In August the house across the street was sold to a remodeler as a fixer upper for $500K. The remodeler is still working it and likely will list it for $800K. The houses in this neighborhood are from the early 1970s and so far selling in the $700K range. Currently none are for sale.
Veeger 706 posts, incept 2013-02-13
2021-12-27 08:34:56

Regarding NYC outlawing natural gas heat in new construction: Theyve done that here in the extreme NW tip of Washington state. Only electric going forward. Riiiiight, thatll work out well. Just got power back after 32 hours (yep, outside temp 11 degrees this a.m.). Snowed / iced in for the next 7 days realistically speaking.

So they arent building new power plants, theyre taking down hydroelectric dams (for the fishies donchaknow) and everyone wants an electric car. Color meamused! The big house I have, runs on three (3) electric heat pumps primarily AND my propane fireplace which so far as kept me from freezing. The house is another story I had reasons, but well be more independent from the grid in a year. (And NOT solar,

----------
I remember the Diamond Princess.


Slowly at first, then all of a sudden.
Tickerguy 188k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2021-12-27 08:33:51

@Uncephalized - It was irrelevant beyond the first couple of weeks of November, and I've repeatedly opined on that.

The man who was screwed, if he was, had the sole right to so-declare and take up arms if it was necessary to do so in order to prove it.

The Presidency is a unique office. It contains the sole legal authority to kill tens or even hundreds of millions of people with a single order. The CIC "left seat" is indeed the biggest responsibility on the planet at present, with the only real people in the same general position being Putin and Xi, and both of them are in second place.

If you lack the balls to put your own life and freedom behind what you claim to believe then either you're lying or unfit for the job. I don't care much which it is, but I'll be goddamned if I'm supporting anyone who claims that they were robbed but won't do a fucking thing about it, yet claims to have the authority to turn entire cities into ASH.

He's not the first Presidential candidate who believes they were screwed -- the difference is the others all knew what the bet was to confirm it and decided that shutting up and going away was the correct course of action. Trump refused; he instead tried to goad other people into doing what was his sole responsibility and choice.

Fuck Trump and his entire grifting family straight to Hell.

You were conned and I hope the load he deposited was salty.

----------
NASA faked out a computer instead of running the test.
Then tried to launch and aborted instead of going "BOOOM!"
Did they abort the JABS after faking THOSE tests?

Sandor 2k posts, incept 2007-08-08
2021-12-27 08:37:58

I remain bullish on FL (and TN) real estate for the foreseeable future. Most realtors I talk to say its all cash, unlike 2008.

The demographic shift from Michigan, PA, and NY are driving this as boomers retire and take their cash and pensions with them.

Katniss99 144 posts, incept 2012-06-05
2021-12-27 08:40:34

Back in November my employer said they were going to terminate those who won't get jabbed in 5 weeks. With those threats, I decided I would sell my house so I could fight those bastards in court later. My mom (also a pureblood) said screw them, move back in with me. I am taking her up on that offer.

The mandate has temporarily halted my firing, but I decided that I was still going to sell the house and move in my mom's paid-off house. I work remote and can work from anywhere. Now thanks to my Vazi employer, I'm going to sell, walk away with 6 figures in equity, and not buy another house until after the crash.

HAHA. SCREW YOU EMPLOYER!!
Uncephalized 37 posts, incept 2021-11-14
2021-12-27 08:46:25

@Tickerguy I jumped off the Trump train for good on Jan 6. My tepid support for him was always based on entertainment value and abhorrence of the alternative. I was more curious of your opinion on the actual historical facts of what happened on election night. I'll see if I can go dig up posts from that era.
Jazen 4k posts, incept 2007-07-17
2021-12-27 08:50:33

Happy and healthy 2022 to you. Interesting predictions. Looking forward to seeing how it plays out.

----------
I hate our Government, but I still love America.
Cmoledor 1k posts, incept 2021-04-13
2021-12-27 08:50:39

Morning all. Im not a gambler, but my money is on Karl being pretty damn accurate about all this. Has been so far with regards to other things. Cheers!!

----------
The whole world is one big fucking scam
Why are you giving a vulgarity warning here? Our genial host is an advocate of both skullfucking and sodomy via rusty chainsaw. Credit to Rollformer
Tickerguy 188k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2021-12-27 08:51:24

I consider anything better than 50% to be an outstanding bit of prognostication @Cmoledor since the time period is quite long and since I lack a time machine all I got is pattern recognition and data, which is far from an exact science.

----------
NASA faked out a computer instead of running the test.
Then tried to launch and aborted instead of going "BOOOM!"
Did they abort the JABS after faking THOSE tests?
Cheetah9 809 posts, incept 2021-02-15
2021-12-27 09:07:39

Anyone else think Harris will get replaced and then Biden resigns? Could be done effectively this Spring for not just that purpose but also to reinvigorate the D base. Biden would resign during Thanksgiving weekend. I don't see the "woman/black" thing being an issue here.
Tickerguy 188k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2021-12-27 09:08:24

@Cheetah9 - No. To replace the VP you need concurrence of both the House and Senate, and there is no tie-breaker vote in the Senate, obviously.

If they try that the most-likely outcome is the seat remains vacant until 2024.

----------
NASA faked out a computer instead of running the test.
Then tried to launch and aborted instead of going "BOOOM!"
Did they abort the JABS after faking THOSE tests?
Lobo 1k posts, incept 2013-12-25
2021-12-27 09:13:09

I am so looking forward to the memes of 2022. I'll miss "Let's go Brandon" but, who knows what will show up for "I swallow" Harris.

The problem with inflation with regards to food is how so many facets of our world tie into it: energy policy, taxes, shipping, etc. I remember cartoons in the 70s about fixed income people salivating over dog food ads on TV. We may see those again.
Inline

----------
Village Idiot
Cmoledor 1k posts, incept 2021-04-13
2021-12-27 09:13:15

Copy that, Karl.

----------
The whole world is one big fucking scam
Why are you giving a vulgarity warning here? Our genial host is an advocate of both skullfucking and sodomy via rusty chainsaw. Credit to Rollformer
Nickdanger 1k posts, incept 2011-06-12
2021-12-27 09:13:23

@Cheetah9,

May be tin, but Hillary has been more visible lately, and reportedly met with Harris at the WH recently. It wouldn't surprise me if she was trying to weasel her way back into the political scene. The Clinton Foundation is also under some scrutiny lately, so don't know how this would affect her. It could blow up in her face, but more likely be swept under the rug.

----------
-- I'm in the control group

-- In life, it's important to know when to stop arguing with people and simply let them be wrong.
Cheetah9 809 posts, incept 2021-02-15
2021-12-27 09:31:53

@Tickerguy

I don't think the lack of votes to confirm would be a problem. They'd have them. The dislike for Harris definitely crosses the aisle.

@Nickdanger -- I did not know that she and Harris met recently but Cankles is who I was thinking as a veep replacement and think she'd be voted in with a strong majority.

Reason: Further thoughts
Bluto 1k posts, incept 2021-07-10
2021-12-27 09:32:20

Regarding real estate, I'm noticed a lot of corporate 401k plans have moved significant holdings into the "real estate" sector. A few years ago, that percentage was "zero". Anyway, this is likely driving the prices up significantly. I hope we don't wind up like the UK or Australia, where houses are basically $1 million dollars and a perpetual ball chain of debt unless you already own. (And if you do own, property taxes will slaughter you). Maybe all part of the plan??

On politics, I think the conservatives/Republicans are also going to wipe out the dems in local elections. The former really haven't paid attention, unless they had kids in the school system, to those elections, but will now especially with CRT, wokeism, trans-story hour, etc... This will shift things hard right, and with a Supreme Court that is VERY pro-states rights, this will make "where you live" more important than ever. Maybe some of these states will even start going after the health care monopolies by passing and enforcing legislation?

I think some of the big "winners" in real estate may be Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania if those states elect Republican governors. If they are smart, they will immediately pass laws severely restricting the power of future governors to do "lockdowns" or other nonsense. Free states like Montana, Idaho, and even Florida, Tennessee, etc. are getting too expensive and whichever currently un-attractive states figure out how to attract residents (taxpayers) will win the lottery. The GOP in Wisconsin, for example, is looking at abolishing the state income tax.

----------
"Let me tell you: You take on the intelligence community they have six ways from Sunday at getting back at you," Chuck Schumer, Senate Democrat Leader, 2019
Bluto 1k posts, incept 2021-07-10
2021-12-27 09:33:19

Regarding Biden, I don't see how he willingly leaves this year. If he (or Harris) for that matter leave, the Dem Senate is no longer 51-50, but 50-50.

That means they can't confirm a new Supreme Court nominee if Breyer retires, which I put at 50/50. I just don't see the Dems giving up that much power.

----------
"Let me tell you: You take on the intelligence community they have six ways from Sunday at getting back at you," Chuck Schumer, Senate Democrat Leader, 2019
Scottj175 574 posts, incept 2010-09-06
2021-12-27 09:33:36

I'm hoping for a break in the building materials market. I postponed replacing some aging things on the house because costs skyrocketed. Not many more kicks left in that can.

Doesn't sound like the cheap used hooptie car market is coming back any time next year either. Oh well, I don't need the temptation :)

So I'll focus on finishing the transmission on my truck and getting the old derelict RX-7 I bought last year back on the road.

Lastly, I need a break in the reloading supplies market soon. Down to my last 500 large pistol primers and I'd really like to get back to practicing more. I went from once a week on average in 2019 to about once a month starting in 2020.

Merry New Year, Tickerfolk.
Bluto 1k posts, incept 2021-07-10
2021-12-27 09:35:46

Quote:
They absolutely lose the Senate and I'll give it 50/50 they lose The House.


Just curious on why you see it like that? Everything I've read suggest the exact opposite, with the Dems losing the House being a near 100% certainty, but them losing the Senate being 50/50.

Granted, I have recently read the Dems are doing slightly better than expected in re-districting thanks to egregious gerrymanders in Illinois, New York, and California, but we are only talking a few seats there.

If the GOP replicates the 12-point swing in VA/NJ between 2020/2021, I've read where that translates into 50 House seats and 5 Senate seats flipping.

----------
"Let me tell you: You take on the intelligence community they have six ways from Sunday at getting back at you," Chuck Schumer, Senate Democrat Leader, 2019
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Page 1 of 10  First123456789Last