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 2021: The Year In Review, And A Wee Light In The Tunnel
Tickerguy 200k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2021-12-27 09:36:50

@Bluto - They only need to lose ONE Senate seat, and they will. That's basically assured. They're in trouble on the calendar (Senate cycle) to start with and this hasn't been a good year.

The House is a bit tougher, but I suspect they lose both.

"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."
Crossthread 14k posts, incept 2007-09-04
2021-12-27 09:41:26

Well the RV Market ~ Camper Market is off the hook, so theres that..

The new Mobile Home living, fleeing the Blue Hives?

Everyone of us are ignorant, its just we specialize our ignorance on different subjects.

The only walls that will confine you are the ones that you build yourself
Tickerguy 200k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2021-12-27 09:51:20

I'm blown away @Crossthread at what new Class Cs sell for these days. Most of them are complete pieces of shit quality-wise and the ones that aren't, well, bring a LOT of money. I've seen a couple of the "Sprinter" conversions that are REAL nice, but goddamn they're expensive.

One of the reasons I decided to convert my 7x17 that I moved here in is that it's a twin-axle (where for an RV towable of that size would be a single, and close to overloaded!) which means I have a SHIT TON of reserve capacity in the frame and suspension. Yeah, its not "pretty" but a camper has a few basic functions one of the most-important of which is to keep the fucking rain off your head. If I want to get "yachty" about the interior finish I can, but I'd rather not frankly, and besides, with the way I'm doing it I don't lose the cargo capacity since all the "hard" upgrades are designed to not be able to be destroyed if hauling things (e.g. conduit for electrical, etc.) and the rest locks into the E-rails and can be removed and put in the garage when you want to haul stuff.

Other than a shower and shitter (chemical toilet will do for the latter) an RV is really a place to kick back, relax and sleep while keeping the rain and bugs off you with reasonable climate control. It does that. There IS room for an under-floor, between-frame-elements modest-size black tank (and in the next-forward bay fresh) but I ain't doing it. I may carry tankage inside in otherwise-unused space for fresh with a small tanked heater that I can use for an outside shower if boondocking; haven't decided on that yet.

If your needs are even MORE spartan and you're single (or a couple that REALLY like each other) convert your own van. You can still get something with around 100k on it as a pax van with a lifted roof at reasonable cost as a base, and its not very hard to put the rest in. My only complaint with that path is that I want to be able to go do things when I get where I'm going, and having it all in one makes that more-complicated since I hate the "toad" idea with a white-hot passion. I'd rather figure out a way to haul a small but street-legal motorcycle for that purpose if I must since that can be something suitable for rough roads (e.g. an enduro-style with appropriate tires) and such yet its still capable of highway speeds.

"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."

Keepingmyoptions 317 posts, incept 2007-10-21
2021-12-27 10:17:00

The lack of Antifa style violence could have easily been predicted. It existed and was nurtured as a political tool. This has been clearly been exposed as to its Democrat ownership.

I will lay in my own prediction: Kamala will take over, and will name Mrs Obama as VP. This will presage second madam's presidential candidacy in 2024 after the Ds dispose of the trash, all on schedule and on the program.

We are in a bicycle economy. The only way to stay solvent is to keep trading, or tip over.
Thelazer 1k posts, incept 2009-05-11
2021-12-27 10:17:16

From my view in Florida, I don't see much downside risk in 2022 - 2024 for housing at this time.

First, we have a major undersupply of reasonable priced homes.

Builders are not building them, with supply chain and other issues, they won't be building sub 200K houses anytime soon either.

Apartments are also at capacity. They have zero incentive to lower there rents anytime soon either. There is not enough new construction starts on those also.

2nd, EVERYONE is wanting to move here. Miami alone is attracting what once was wall street in NY. Tampa and yes Orlando even.

I suspect, this will INCREASE in 2022, as international travel opens up, those lock downs in other country's will have the same effect in migration. Realtor's here have cash buyers in those country's waiting on standby as soon as all the BS ends.

3rd, Well IF we get dicey out there with the politics. Southern states will be where you want to be. Nuff said on that.

That said, we do have a couple investments that we would exit on in housing and I'm watching that closely come 2023, the others a long term hold.
Mike77079 96 posts, incept 2010-06-21
2021-12-27 10:17:39

Karl, I'll give you the two points on 'inflation is coming', and here's why - not only is inflation here, but they're changing the way inflation is calculated to make YoY inflation in 2022 not look as bad as it will be.
Rollformer 3k posts, incept 2013-02-13
2021-12-27 10:17:42

Who is in charge of the clattering train?


Death is in charge of the clattering train!
Mr_clueless 113 posts, incept 2009-06-04
2021-12-27 10:18:27

I think inflation goes steadily higher.
I don't think the wheels come off the housing bubble. (If they do, the wheels come off the economy.)
Jwm_in_sb 6k posts, incept 2009-04-16
2021-12-27 10:20:08

Well Karl I may have an explanation for TN RE prices...Californians moving there. Three separate people I met up with in Socal all said their colleagues are retiring there.
Bluto 2k posts, incept 2021-07-10
2021-12-27 10:41:03

@Tickerguy Any thoughts on how the 2nd amendment case before the USSC will go?

"You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end -- which you can never afford to lose -- with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever
Jwm_in_sb 6k posts, incept 2009-04-16
2021-12-27 10:41:07

Hitlery is looking to run again because Durham is now investigating her campaign. She'll need candidacy as a shield.
Aztrader 8k posts, incept 2007-09-10
2021-12-27 10:41:14

If the elections next year are not fouled up like they were in the past 2 elections with allowable massive fraud, then the GOP will take both houses. I am betting that the left will be twice as aggressive as they were in 2020 and do a lot of physical damage to make sure mail in balloting is the primary way to vote. They are already pushing their new covid variant and making it sound deadly to get the fear going again. We have countries all over the world either talking lock downs or doing them to force people to take the poison. The left are like spoiled children that throw a fit when they don't get what they want. Our economy is very fragile right now due to the supply chain issues. I just paid for an order due in late January today in order to get this year's pricing. Saving 12% on a six figure order only made sense.
I do know that inflation will continue hard based on the price increases we are seeing for January. Get your Beretta gun now because they are going up about 13%....
We hit both Sam's club and Costco this weekend and can't believe the prices. People on fixed incomes or who simply don't have sufficient savings are in real trouble in the coming year.

Will the new year start with a roar or a wimper? It's very obvious that big money is ruling the financial party and being on the wrong side could really hurt. The only way they could have any chance of getting inflation under control is to fix the supply chain issues and that is a long way off. Good luck to all and buckle up for a lot of volatility.
Magus 3k posts, incept 2008-05-04
2021-12-27 10:41:52

Good results from last year and good list for this year. I largely agree except on housing (I think we're going to repeat 1975-1985 on elevated inflation) and I'm not convinced the Fed will raise rates, much less drain any liquidity, in an election year even if they really, really want to do so. I'm a lot more bullish on RRE in the bottom half of the country than the top half. Wages are going crazy, people are moving in from NY, NJ and CA and just think its dirt cheap, institutional $ is buying now (private, not REITs) and the quality of the buyer/downpayment is 100x better than 2005-2007.

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of f
Bluto 2k posts, incept 2021-07-10
2021-12-27 10:42:01

They only need to lose ONE Senate seat, and they will. That's basically assured. They're in trouble on the calendar (Senate cycle) to start with and this hasn't been a good year.

I think 2024 is when the Dems have a rough Senate cycle with WV, MT, OH, MI, and WI seats on the table.

2022 in the Senate would have been brutal for the GOP if Trump remained in office, with many seats in swing states (PA, NC, WI) up for election.

Anyway, the Republicans will probably flip Arizona this year, and Georgia as well unless Herschel Walker's candidacy implodes. I put Nevada at 50/50. That state has "overperformed" for the Dems they last several cycles, but like you said, it is a bad year for the Dems. New Hampshire will be tougher. I think they would have flipped it if Governor Sununu ran, but he decided not to run. But a decent candidate could still flip that seat. After that, you get into "really hard" territory, like Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Oregon, Washington.

On the other side, the GOP has to defend open seats in NC and PA, as well as several other states. Maybe WI also if Ron Johnson retires. There is the very real chance the GOP blows some of these races by nominating a Q-tard. But otherwise, they should carry them because it will be a bad year for the dems.

So I think 52-48 is spot on....

"You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end -- which you can never afford to lose -- with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever
Bluto 2k posts, incept 2021-07-10
2021-12-27 10:42:35

Regarding RV's: Campgrounds are full many month in advance, so lots of planning is required, unless you boondock.

And truck campers are running at 1+ year wait times from one of the quality suppliers I recently checked out.

"You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end -- which you can never afford to lose -- with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever
Iou 1k posts, incept 2009-03-16
2021-12-27 10:43:39

@TG, I purchased a 1997 Class B for a real good price in 2019 that I love but it does make those local trips once setup a pain in the ass. I'm looking for a pair of electric bikes or scooters I can hitch to the back for me and the misses to get around once we're setup. Can't seem to decide on what I want.

"When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves, in the course of time, a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies
Bluto 2k posts, incept 2021-07-10
2021-12-27 10:49:51

I'm not convinced the Fed will raise rates, much less drain any liquidity, in an election year even if they really, really want to do so

They (and the Dems) are between a rock and a hard place.

Do they aggressively raise rates now to stop inflation, but take a huge political hit in the 2022 midterms (even worse than predicted right now) as a result of a stock market decline and recession? This gives the economy a chance to recover so they can salvage 2024, but even if a Dem president is re-elected in 2024, the 2022 wipeout will be so bad, they will likely control neither the House nor the Senate.

Or do they delay raising rates until immediately after the midterms to try to minimize political losses in 2022, but this puts the 2024 election at risk since threading that needle will be tough?

Or do they half-ass interest rate increases and risk the worst of both worlds: a catastrophic 2022 midterm election, and persistent inflation into the 2024 election?

"You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end -- which you can never afford to lose -- with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever
Maurevel 1k posts, incept 2009-06-14
2021-12-27 10:51:05

Just taking the opportunity to thank you for the effort you put in here for all these years.
Cmoledor 3k posts, incept 2021-04-13
2021-12-27 11:09:16

Also Karl, Im just picking your brain here, any thought on who would be VP to replace knee pads Harris? I know miss B has been saying Melinda gates, considering their supposed divorce. Not an important question at all, just wondering where you land on this. Thanks boss.

The whole world is one big fucking scam

God will NOT help anyone. Prayer is only worthwhile as a boost to personal fortitude just prior to what needs to be done. KD 10/05/2023
Jpe6150 108 posts, incept 2013-07-02
2021-12-27 11:09:24

I think, and have proven beyond any doubt from my own experiences, one of the brighter happenings in all the covid/reduce population/extend tight control over the people, is that, we have learned how to be our own 'doctors.' Karl has been the poster child on this. He and his advice has been brillant!. No, I'm not sucking up. I don't do that. Its been years since I trusted most docs and all the medical system. Some years ago I cut my knee open using a chain saw and my then wife insisted we go to the emergency room. They did their best to rape me on the bill. I managed to argue with them and got it reduced to $500 from over $2000. This for some 12 or 14 stiches and a local pain killer. After that, I realized I could have taken out my med kit, which includes med stiching sutures and the needles and stiched the damn thing up myself.
I am not vaxxed and will not even if it means a gun battle. I am not anti-vaxx. A few years ago, before covid, I came close to death with a nail wound to one hand. It swoll up to over twice its size and, on a sunday, I got to the nearest doc in box some 15 min. before they closed and specified a tetanus shot. They wanted to make me see the doc, and I refused, I knew what I needed, and it cost me 50. Best 50 I ever spent. I will never forget the booster every 10 years or whatever it is now. So, some vaxx is definitely on the menu.
I've learned how to make my own quinine and how to use it. That said, I finally found out to obtain 'other' stuff and are well supplied. And, the 'other' stuff is more effective than the quinine.
Through all this I've learned more about paying attention to what my body is telling me and getting good advice from places like Karl's blog, and, interestingly, to read ALL the comments. Karl and others wisdom does not all come within the base posting.
So, now if we can get rid of most of the politicians and burp-crats, and crooked judical system, etc, maybe we can really make this country great again. I, reluctantly, came agree with Karl about Trump. He had such greatness he could have achived but failed the test. Don't know who I will vote for, if voting makes any difference anymore, but it won't be him. DeSantis? Who the hell knows.
Sorry for the long comnent. Call it my pre new years rant. Now, what I wait on is the Cotton Bowl [l live in AL, by the way] and the Orange bowl. I want to Alabama take on Georgia in the natioal game. My intent is to watch the Cotton here in Alabama with the homies at my second fav. bar, then dash over to Rome, Ga to watch the Orange with that other set of homies. Gonna be fun, I hope.
Abelardlindsey 2k posts, incept 2021-03-26
2021-12-27 11:10:11

In other news, The Rogue Warrior died on Christmas Day.

Its all in the mitochondria.

Soylent Green is people!
Traelin0 563 posts, incept 2021-01-28
2021-12-27 11:10:16

Tickerguy wrote..
But what it DOES have (like everywhere else) is a small group of assholes who think they can buy everything in sight and convert it to rentals of one form or another, whether AirBNB or, in the places where that's prohibited (which is becoming increasingly so) pseudo-deals like that which get around it with 30 day leases and similar -- at astronomical prices.

I put the kibosh on that pretty quickly, a couple of times. Apparently my strategy of demanding a ridiculous amount (you know what we have and where we are) didn't work. I sincerely figured it would, but it appears these greedy assholes wanna carve up what remains of farms here, and convert them into $1.7 million micro tracts. No shit.

The second time, I asked for their home address, personal AND business contact info, who they work for, and what exactly they planned on doing with the land. I haven't heard from them again.
Traelin0 563 posts, incept 2021-01-28
2021-12-27 11:15:38

Katniss99 wrote..
Now thanks to my Vazi employer, I'm going to sell, walk away with 6 figures in equity, and not buy another house until after the crash.

Whomever downvoted you is not thinking long-term. We could collapse this shit overnight if enough people started throwing their shoes into the gears of an inefficient, corrupt, kleptocratic system, we could collapse it and at least have a chance of starting from a clean slate.

There're no guarantees as to the outcome, but at least we'd get a rope thrown around the tree before we cut it down, hence guiding it in the direction we want.
Bzelbob 500 posts, incept 2021-09-12
2021-12-27 11:15:46

My take on your take: (For what it's worth = not much)

Inflation will not calm down.
5,000% correct. Like palmolive, we're already soaking in it.

The Democrats are going to get obliterated in the midterms.
100%. Nuked from orbit almost. May they BBQ slowly.

The Fed is going to get forced into actual liquidity drains.
99%. Let the Wailing and Gnashing of Teeth begin...

The USSC will "split the baby" on the abortion decision and nobody is going to like it.
100%. The word "pussified" somehow springs to mind when anyone mentions USSC.

The equity market is extremely vulnerable over the next six to nine months.
100%. Have no reason to doubt you here. October will be scary, no?

There is no short-term supply chain relief coming.
100%. The Gnashing of Teeth.

Business is going to get it in both holes.
100%. The Wailing.

The blue hives are in particularly-serious trouble.
1,000+%. Socialism ruins everything.

Significant geopolitical trouble breaks out.
90%. The only thing that can prevent it is post-virus fatigue.

Ghislaine Maxwell's trial is not the end of that story.
1,000%. Pulling on the end of a very long, very dark thread...

Biden is finished this year.
90%. Stroke victims often survive far longer than we think possible.

Business uncertainty lifts in the back half.
90%. No chance at all in the first half. ("Sell in May & Start to pray"?)

Housing, as a bubble, is done.
75%. I suspect will still take awhile for all the excess air to come out. Lotta air.

The Medical Complex has a serious problem on their hands - both in credibility and cost.
10,000%+. You've been way out front on this one KD! They deserve it -- long and hard. (Godzilla sized ITYS sign.)

The credentialism of the so-called "top schools" will deteriorate markedly and some may collapse.
500%. Socialism ruins everything pt. 2 - also well deserved.

Trump is done, and so are those who cling to him.
0%. I wish "Shut up and Go Away" was in the the Don's playbook, but I'm not betting on it.

Thanks for all you do! smiley

"Threats are illogical. And payment is usually expensive." - Sarek of Vulcan
Rangeishot 4k posts, incept 2021-11-18
2021-12-27 11:36:57

@Aztrader re costs & future increases... transportation costs have to be killing small companies.


Around May of 2020 I had several pieces of custom furniture made. Trendy reclaimed barnwood stuff, giant, sturdy, heavy, not cheap to ship cross-country. My office desk alone was just under $1K shipped. October 2021, my wife wanted the same desk... which was marked up to $1800 shipped.

On a whim, about a week ago, I checked their website ... that desk is now $2700 shipped. For their sake I hope they lock in transportation as orders arrive...

"Just when you think it is maximumly fucked up, they throw another log on the fire." -- Mannfm11
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