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User Info	2023: The Year In Review And A Cloudy Crystal Ball; entered at 2024-01-01 04:40:45
Mannfm11 Posts: 9289 Registered: 2009-02-28 DFW, Tx	@flap, whoever wins is going to get something fucked up. The king of debt won't work this time. Trump wanted to do some infrastructure while they were giving away money. I don't think there is going to be a choce this time. The interest rates broke the budget for years. It is going to be economy wide, as debt service has to be included in operating costs. Don't pay te interest, there is something called bankruptcy. As much as you might think the opposite, lower rates likely lowered inflation, until we went back to 1970's socialist growth. As for housing? It's local. People want to live somewhere, they are going to pay, as long as it isn't overbuilt. There is one caveat, if the economy goes to crap. Biden just let as many as 10 million people into the country. Even 10 to a house or unit requires 1 million units. Half that, 2 million. The 2008 bust was so big, they failed to start building soon enough last decade o restore supply. Then we had the supply lines go to crap. It is my understading they didn't have the proper material to build 2 story homes in 2021. I have seen prices paid in Asia and other places, like the Bay Area. If they don't have lots, they can't build housing. Here, that not only involves platting subdivisions, but having water, electric and sewer available. There are an average of 120,000 a year population moving into DFW every year, since 1980. Developing 20 to 25 sq. miles a year is a race. Well located is getting scarce. There's a million acres out of town. Land is inflated, even in outlying areas. I see a bust there, more likely than housing itself. When it all busted in 2008, Plano and North Dallas were marginally affected. New suburbs, like Frisco and Rockwall County took a beating. Frisco was a wide spot in the road in 1990. Major business center and 220,000 people today. People who can afford them are going to keep buying. I'm in the rental business and to be honest, I can't see buying one today, for that purpose. When all is netted out, maybe 4% before depreciation. 2024-01-01 04:40:45