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 Demographics Is Destiny
Aquapura 4k posts, incept 2012-04-19
2023-11-06 18:41:14

I've mentioned in the past that my kids were adopted. Long story short, we thought we were going to be a childless couple. Then everything changed, and I can truly say that life with kids is better than without. They certinaly have enhanced our lives in immesasurable ways.

That said, when I was in my mid-20's there would've been no chance I could've feasibily taken on two kids through adoption or from my own loins if I were to maintain a "middle class" standard of living. Being established in my career and finally making an income that could support a family was critical to the transaction if I were to give my kids a similar experience I had when growing up, and that didn't come for me until I was mid-30's and beyond. For the record I'm college educated and graduated with zero debt. For my parents generation attaining that level of "success" came earlier in life.

It's the cost-of-living which is the problem. Earn more sounds nice but that's easier said than done in a career that demands experience which is only measured in years. If housing, taxes, food, transportation, etc. all been a much smaller nut to cover who knows, maybe I would've been more willing to remove the goalie when younger. The younger colleagues I work with that do have kids all tend to get a lot of support from family, most often on the child care front, but certinaly financially either direct or indirect. Of course if you don't care about your standard of living you can live in poverty. The turd-worlders have no problem with that because that is which they come from and happen to have larger families as a result. Your stereotypical American, not so much, and thus we have our demographic dillema.

Sqt 20 posts, incept 2021-12-01
2023-11-06 18:41:55

@Zanker- Thank you. I promise I will not foist large and inappropriate so-called gifts on my kids. My in-laws were the worst with that and it drove me nuts.

@Inpsectracalahan I sincerely hope to have a future with my grandkids like yours. That would be the dream.
Abelardlindsey 2k posts, incept 2021-03-26
2023-11-06 19:08:15

Please make this ticker easily findable in the right column (along with the 2017 health care fix and the recent student loan solution ones) as I plan to post links to it whenever I encounter a baby bust discussion on the internet. The delusional thinking that is as prevalent on the right as it is on the left with regards to baby-making is irritating to no end.

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Its all in the mitochondria.

Its the future and...you're not.
Aperson 17 posts, incept 2023-09-20
2023-11-06 19:08:33

I took a somewhat different route than most .. as the oldest of 7 (mom was oldest of 13) .. went in the navy out of hs... was either that or get drafted ..
when i finally got around to getting married (1977) my wife and i decided that while we wanted to have kids we must have a house and i needed a job that would support us, as we did not want our kids to be raised by anyone else..
We both worked and saved every penny .. and managed to buy our first house. this was in 78-79... the only reason we were able to get a mortgage in nys was i was able to get a va loan ..at 9.75 % / 30 years.. nys had a ursury law that prevented lenders from charging >10% interest.. essentially all it did was dry up all conventional mortgages ...

i was working as a union skilled laborer and somehow we managed ..after a 2-3 week strike and with 4 other mouths to feed i decided to go to night school to get an electrical engineering degree.. the company paid my tuition as long as i passed .. after a couple years of this the company got bought out during the leveraged buyout craze .. and i ended up quitting and got a new job.. who also paid my tuition ... i did have to get an incomplete on the semester i had just started as i was required to attend several training sessions on the new westinghouse distributed controls they were getting.. managed to get back to it and after 9 years of work/school/sleep .. and doing spring summer fall i got my bsee...

anyways i have 3 daughters and 8 grands.. all doing very well so far..
my wife and i made a lot of sacrifices to try and do the right thing for our kids..and somehow it worked out..

cant say i would ever attempt it now.. though i really did enjoy the university part..


Tickerguy 202k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-11-06 19:09:30

@Abelardlindsey I will exempt it, but not sure if I will pin it. Exempting it will mean it can be found by search.

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"Perhaps you can keep things together and advance playing DIE games.
Or perhaps the truth is that white men w/IQs >= 115 or so built all of it and without us it will collapse."
Sub 31 posts, incept 2021-05-25
2023-11-06 19:29:06

@Jesjohn94

I'm surprised no one mentioned the topic you bring up earlier in the thread.

IMO, a lot of the childfree(in America at least) are operating on the assumption that senior care is going to somewhat resemble what it does now, when in reality it will probably be either much more expensive, or not available at all for some. The model of paying some immigrant minimum wage+3$/hour to keep the costs of senior care down is already on its last legs.

Also, I don't know that I agree that rational thinking is the primary reason for a lack of children among my generation(millenials). Most of them are just living an extended adolescence and kids would cramp that lifestyle in both time and money. Five hundred dollar Lego sets and 2000$ a night "kidulting" experiences at Disneyworld aren't aimed at families, they are aimed at 35 year olds LARPing as 20 year olds.

I've been hammering my kids on this since they've been old enough to understand. When the childfree sad sacks from my generation are crying for someone to subsidize wiping their ass in 25-30 years, tell them to empty their bank account completely or to get in the suicide pods. The book Children of Men may have been ahead of its time with the Quietus movement.
Abelardlindsey 2k posts, incept 2021-03-26
2023-11-06 19:29:30

I can bookmark it on my computer. Then use it as a link on "baby bust" discussions as I encounter them.

The supreme function of statesmanship is to provide against preventable evils.

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Its all in the mitochondria.

Its the future and...you're not.
Tickerguy 202k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-11-06 19:29:44

I've marked it exempt so it will remain available.

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"Perhaps you can keep things together and advance playing DIE games.
Or perhaps the truth is that white men w/IQs >= 115 or so built all of it and without us it will collapse."
Ingar 761 posts, incept 2017-02-14
2023-11-06 19:44:24

I met a military pilot who had 8 children, all stair steps. I think he was a devout Catholic. They were the best behaved kids I've ever seen. On the other hand, some people who have kids are bringing little sociopaths into the world and shouldn't breed, or if they do, be able to have the village, i.e., society pay for raising their chirrenz.. I read a lot of gloom in these postings. Our problems are not insurmountable, but the changes that are needed for the USA to have a good future will not occur until we've had something tantamount to a national disaster and form a will for a cleansing of the misruling class.
Egallred 85 posts, incept 2020-08-27
2023-11-06 20:47:39

I just don't find the thesis convincing. Not that I disagree with any particular part of it, I just don't see the causal link between the policies and birth rates because over half the countries on the planet are below replacement level. And let's just say that nearly all of the ones above replacement level don't exactly shout "Brave New World."

The USA is basically in between Nepal, Azerbaijan, Costa Rica, New Zealand, New Caledonia, Norway, Cayman Islands, Aruba, and Seychelles. Go further down the list and you get a grouping that goes Belarus, Malta, Austria, Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, and Cyprus. I have no idea what variable comes close to giving a decent R-squared value.
Tickerguy 202k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-11-06 20:48:24

What, you think people in those other places all believe their children will have a better life than they did?

What 'ya smoking @Egallerd?

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"Perhaps you can keep things together and advance playing DIE games.
Or perhaps the truth is that white men w/IQs >= 115 or so built all of it and without us it will collapse."
Veeger 2k posts, incept 2013-02-13
2023-11-06 21:00:57

While I certainly don't disagree with the premise that a dim outlook on the future will discourage one's willingness to procreate, I would attribute a significant percentage of the problem to the general increase in standard of living.

1). With more income, comfort increases and natural human selfishness begins to kick in. I.e. kids cost money TODAY, and cost of kids is increasingly a factor. That's now, the future is only more bleak.

2). With the increased potential/need of a spouse to make a living to sustain either one's current or future standard of living, it only makes sense that folks will postpone or cancel kids due to both partners needing/wanting a job and/or career

3). Folks tend to think that what they see today is what will always be. I'm not sure that most folks are thinking that far ahead when 'planning' or not planning kids. (Oopsies don't count for the 'planning' part)

Our world is ever increasingly income focused and the old agrarian values, even if retained, simply don't pay the bills.

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I remember the Diamond Princess.


Slowly at first, then all of a sudden.
Tickerguy 202k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-11-06 21:01:54

So you just said @Veeger that we created this with our incentive structure, specifically:

Quote:
2). With the increased potential/need of a spouse to make a living to sustain either one's current or future standard of living, it only makes sense that folks will postpone or cancel kids due to both partners needing/wanting a job and/or career

Why should this be the case? It wasn't until roughly the 1970s -- for basically anyone, including very-basic, no-special-skill blue-collar work.

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"Perhaps you can keep things together and advance playing DIE games.
Or perhaps the truth is that white men w/IQs >= 115 or so built all of it and without us it will collapse."
Realist 359 posts, incept 2009-07-14
2023-11-06 21:21:58


You also have to consider who is going to be trained for the semi-high-tech sectors of our economy. If there aren't qualified applicants, who are going to be the utility workers, machinists, mechanics, etc. who do so much of the work that we take for granted. Who is going to climb a utility pole to replace a transformer without getting fried by a 13,000-volt electric line? I couldn't do it, could you?


@Tickerguy wrote:
Quote:
...We might decide to hold those people who did all of that accountable by ejecting them from public office and any seat of power on a permanent basis -- or even jailing them and confiscating their assets along with passing iron-clad laws prohibiting anything of the sort with a private right of enforcement. In other words we could give that formerly-screwed kid and now adult woman confidence her kids will not be screwed as she was without warning or cause. We haven't and won't do any of that so there will be another generation of lower birth rates. This outcome in another five or six years is our responsibility as the adults of today because we're not about to hold anyone accountable for those last three years!



Our country is based upon skims, scams, lies, fraud and deceit. When there is no Rule of Law or accountability to stop this conduct, you get the current state of affairs in our country. Such a country has one direction to go : down.

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''Whenever law ends, tyranny begins'' -- John Locke, English Philosopher
The United States is a banana republic
Survivors use critical thinking, common sense and intuition
Jesjohn94 1k posts, incept 2019-05-07
2023-11-06 22:45:21

Consumer debt was pretty much non existent until the 1970s. Financial products encouraging people to leverage their income has led to constant bubbles and ever increasing prices. I think the rampant increase in divorce in the west is a bigger factor than cost in declining birth rate. How many young adults today grew up in a family with no divorce? Kids are hugely complicated if you divorce and with the legal system the way it is if you're a man you're probably fucked.
Joancrawford 941 posts, incept 2013-10-14
2023-11-06 22:45:40

@TG-It wasn't until roughly the 1970s -- for basically anyone, including very-basic, no-special-skill blue-collar work.


Yep. A childhood friend of my sister and mine used to serve "slushies" out the back of her old man's hamburger joint (corner of Beach Avenue and the street where our summer place was)back in the '70s. I doubt that SOB had a high school education, he grilled those burgers sans air conditioning, and the girl (and her 6 brothers and sisters) worked the place, as did their alcoholic mom.

The guy died a millionaire, leaving a small fortune for his family. (BTW, still "fartbook friends" with his daughter). Can't say I mourn the guy as he physically molested me as a pre-teen. May the rotten bastard burn forever in hell.

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Time may be a great healer, but it's a lousy beautician.-Dorothy Parker

Boys don't make passes at girls with fat asses.-slightly modified DP
Nelstomlinson 1k posts, incept 2011-12-21
2023-11-06 22:46:11

The British managed to rule the swarthy hordes in India for centuries, without being eaten. The ruling class here obviously believes they can do the same with the dusky hordes they are importing to replace us.
Tsherry 15k posts, incept 2008-12-09
2023-11-06 23:19:50

Well, Nelstomlinson, we have better barbeque sauce than the Indians did; Curry on long-pig doesn't really work for me.

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IQ plus a promethean mindset matters.-Eleua

1 Thessalonians 4:11 Make it your ambition to lead a quiet life, to mind your own business and to work with your hands, just as we told you, so that
Egallred 85 posts, incept 2020-08-27
2023-11-07 08:22:41

@Tickerguy do you suppose attitudes towards their children's future have significantly deteriorated in places like Mongolia? Or are things basically like how they've been for centuries? In Europe, when Viking Hordes were engaging in a lot of BLM were parents thinking "Man, my kids are going to have such a great life!" Or the Great War? Or WWII? Looking at human history how often have people truly had hopes of a better future for their children? For nearly all of human history our children were almost certainly going to have the exact same life as us: Nasty, Brutish, and Short. We've basically always lived that way.

Yet, obviously, they still had children. Usually a lot of them. I think Mousetopia is probably a better explanation. Households with two high-wage earners theoretically should have zero problem supporting as many children as they want yet I suspect their fertility rate is significantly lower than the blue collar class.
Doladin 223 posts, incept 2022-01-15
2023-11-07 08:23:07

Demographics certainly is destiny

The issue isn't just the population pyramid, ie oldies drawing pension while less taxpayers are at work.

The issue is that the straight white males are now a minority, and even those young and alive are deciding not to participate. These are the engineers, the statesmen, the tradesmen, the family men that made the West what it is.

Without them, we become Brazil, south Africa, or India. A country is it's people, not it's laws or resources (we already see that the laws on our books are worthless when they are selectively enforced)

Sometimes, it has to get worse before it gets better. There are many good people left - hopefully unjabbed and unlevered. They are waiting for a rally point. I will likely join them.

Imagine where America could have been if they didn't waste trillions babysitting Negro's, and subsequently half of indio America and India. Imagine if all energy policy was devoid of scams.

Personally, I accept that life is unfair and that there is never the "perfect" time for anything (like having kids, or taking a long weekend motorbike tour). At some point, you just have to jump in with both feet. This is coming from a risk averse person!

It's a shame to see so many childless ticker readers - I'm sure that you would have raised above average children, who would have made a positive contribution to the world. We live in a pretty good time, all in all. I'm only upset that it's getting WORSE rather than getting better. Fewer smart white people is not going to help that cause

In the mean time, I'm doing my part to keep the good times rolling. I'll do my best to have several Caucasian kids!
Flappingeagle 5k posts, incept 2011-04-14
2023-11-07 08:23:53

Let me give it a shot.

The liberal/progressives claimed that they were building a stairway to heaven but all the while they were building a highway to hell.

Being 100% honest, I will not just call out the liberal/progressives, the so-called conservatives were always there to do their part as well.

Flap

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2024. One of Trump or Biden will not be on the ballot in November.
A housing crash will occur.
Interest rates will NOT be lowered more than 1% in total unless a housing crash occurs.
Starrynight 179 posts, incept 2021-11-26
2023-11-07 08:24:02

@Tickerguy, thank you for this great analysis. I understand that you are saying young people today look ahead 20 years and expect a dismal future, and this causes them to not have children now.

Can I please ask, what do you make of the big decline in fertility in many East Asian countries in recent decades? Many prosperous countries like S. Korea, Japan, Singapore, etc. have very low fertility rates, some now even less than 1.0, and have for 40 years or more. They had at least as big a decline as China with its One Child Policy, but none of these countries had such a state policy; instead, the decline was voluntary. And yet, during this time in these countries, I think most people could look ahead and expect a bright future. So we see fertility declines both in the US today, where people are demoralized and therefore choose not to have kids, but also in successful economies like 1980s Japan and Korea.

I am not sure how to explain this -- what do you think?

Please see the attached graph, which shows this has been a trend for a long time. (I found this one and others just by searching "east asia fertility".)

Inline
Venuspluto67 13 posts, incept 2021-06-02
2023-11-07 08:24:28

Granted, I only skimmed over the comments prior to this one to see if I was merely repeating another commentor, but one factor that doesn't seem to have been mentioned are the detrimental effects the Covid jabs are already having on fertility rates. I think that this in and of itself is a demographic catastrophe in the making.
Fumei 4k posts, incept 2019-01-08
2023-11-07 08:24:32

The Limeys overplayed their hand in the Great Game and were put to flight from Asscrackistan in the 19th century.

The British Raj was a conglomeration of local princely client states and direct Limey rule over most of the rest of the Subcontinent. The technological and economic gap betwixt the West and East has decreased significantly. I
would guess the Turd worlders in the West now are not as easily wowed or cowed as their ancestors were a couple of centuries ago.
Flappingeagle 5k posts, incept 2011-04-14
2023-11-07 08:24:39

The idea of limiting family size was taking hold before the idea of needing two incomes started to hit. All over the world, as soon as reliable birth-control is available birth rates plummet. The real question is: what do we do as a society to get a sustainable birth rate?

There's a catch in that question which is TG's original post.
Quote:
Let's face facts folks: Nobody who you want to have children will bring said children into a world where they believe said kids will get screwed.
The catch is: who you want to have children.

Genetics matter and within a policy that gives us a stable birthrate, we need the top-half of the women to have a least half of the children. Ideally, the top-half of the women would have 60% of the children. Subsidizing the bottom-half to have children is a losing long-run policy even if they have enough to give us a stable population.

Flap

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2024. One of Trump or Biden will not be on the ballot in November.
A housing crash will occur.
Interest rates will NOT be lowered more than 1% in total unless a housing crash occurs.
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