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2021-07-22 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 5861 references Ignore this thread
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I hate it when I'm right.

This is about it when it comes to the jabs for me, since we're now at the point that you can pull a Hillary Clinton: "At this point, what difference does it make?"

For those who took it out of stupidity, coercion, to belong or whatever: Too bad, so sad.

To those who used their heads and deduced that between the lack of long-term longitudinal data (zero) and known, documented risks along with deliberate sandbagging by the our government and media of all sorts in reporting the bad effects that rapidly showed up, including deaths, they've made up their minds.  All we have left there is whether, if attempted to be coerced instead of cajoled, they will consider that attempted murder and destroy not only the person coercing them but everything that individual loves as well, living or not.

You can only die once and only be damned once too.  Once either happens its a very liberating thing; you now are simply evaluating whether you're going to let some SOB get away with it or whether he or she is going to Hell in front of you, even if only by a few minutes.

I am not linking source papers in this treatise, so don't ask -- go do the looking yourself this time.  I've done it for a year and a half and, frankly, you still let these ghouls mask your kids, demand you stay home and then con you into taking jabs they lied about, let them lie about "no effective treatments" and deliberately not make reasonable inquiry as regard adverse effects of the jabs despite there being plenty of scientific evidence published before they were rolled out.  I'm laying out facts here; the science is, at this point, old enough and visible enough that if you gave a crap there would have been a revolt months ago.

A real one, not some LARPers crap.  If 500,000 corpses aren't enough what is?

If you remember very early on we knew that ventilators didn't work.  In fact we knew before Trump's HHS issued their order that paid (and still pays; the Biden administration just extended the "emergency" authorizing it) hospitals nearly $40,000 to shove a tube down your throat.  Trump then upped the ante by ordering tens of thousands of them under the DPA, despite the data being on the table that they were worthless.  That was a deliberate act that was all about the money -- damn those who were killed.  This nation sat back and allowed that to happen, and still is allowing it 18 months later.

Not long after, when the first few dead were autopsied, we found out why: Covid-19, when it goes badly, is not just a viral, inflammatory disease.  It causes thrombosis (clotting) in various organs, most-particularly the lungs.  That's what kills you most of the time.

The "spike unit" that the jabs are all constructed around, it has developed, something known to the NIH and the pharmaceutical companies before Covid-19 was claimed to exist in January of 2020.  There is a transfer agreement from the NIH to a university dated prior to that time, and some evidence that the exact spike configuration found in Covid-19 was being discussed in scientific papers long before that.  How can you have a scientific discussion, write papers on and transfer technology related to something that isn't known to exist yet?  Fauci was grilled on this the other day by Congress, asked directly if the spike in Covid-19 was identical to that in said paper, and refused to answer with a yes or no.  He knows damn well what the answer is and if he lied that would be proved perjury and a criminal offense.  If he tells the truth then the etiology of Covid-19 is conclusively known to wildly pre-date the so-called "discovery" and now we must start asking all sorts of other questions; said questions degenerate very rapidly into criminal culpability on the part of many including a whole bunch of people right here in the US.  Fauci looked very nervous in that hearing -- exactly like a man who has been caught bull****ting since the start, there's a half-million bodies piled up as a result and his neck is itching.

When the jab trials started, in short, we knew that severe disease from Covid-19 was primarily a thrombotic event.  We also knew that roughly 80% of the population had decent if not excellent resistance and would get nothing more than a mild or moderate cold or flu from it.  That proof goes all the way back to Diamond Princess.  Hell, a couple reasonably well-known to me got hit by the 'Ro in the early months, both elderly and quite morbid.  He was dead in five days while she never even sneezed, a flat impossibility for two people who are married and sleeping with each other if everyone is susceptible as we were told.  We investigated and learned why that has repeatedly happened; the science was published in June, peer-reviewed by September and published in Nature -- long before the first jab went into the first arm.  These are facts.

We also knew, from decades of trying, that coronavirus vaccines had always failed in the past.

We deliberately did not look at the thrombotic profile of the trial participants in the vaccines; specifically, we did not pull d-Dimer and troponin tests (both cheap) on the participants before the jab, and then sequentially on intervals (e.g. 3 days, 1 week, 2 weeks) to detect whether we were in fact inducing damage similar to the disease.  The drugmakers did not look because quite-obviously they did not want to know; if that showed up in the trials in any sort of statistically relevant percentage of the enrollees it would have instantly shut down the trials and freaked out the thousands in said trials who put themselves at riskI remind you that in September of 2020 the first scientific paper was published indicating that the "Spike" was quite possibly the direct cause of the serious damage and virtually all Covid-19 deaths.  Several papers followed starting in December of 2020, prior to mass-distribution of the jabs, confirming that the spike was directly capable of causing pathology -- that is, severe damage -- without the rest of the virus being present at all.

Failing to halt the roll-out to prove that the vaccines, which all cause production of said spike in your body, would not cause the same effects was criminally insane and grossly negligent given the science at the time.  This was not an "accident" since the studies were published and known -- it was deliberate blindness undertaken in the interest of speed and money before human safety and indeed human life.

We also were told that the jabs produced a "robust" antibody response, which, on the data, is true.  What either wasn't looked at, or was known and intentionally not discussed is that the sequencing of IgA/IgM/IgG in a vaccinated person was wrong for someone who had no immune system knowledge prior to vaccination.  This is now out in the public, at least on a preliminary basis, and it shows that the jab adverse effects may in fact be a form of ADE!  If so that's extremely bad.  The original studies either developed this information and it was hidden or they deliberately did not look; what we do know is that it was not run down.

Now there's potentially worse evidence showing up that the jabs may be destroying existing coronavirus T-cell recognition.  That, if confirmed, is profound because natural infection preferentially builds "N" protein T-cell reactivity.  The spike on a coronavirus evades immune recognition; that's how you get infected in the first place.  That more-severe infections had higher IgG antibody titers to the spike would appear counter-intuitive (after all, you'd think the more-severe the infection the less your immune system was able to respond) but it makes sense once you realize what's going on with a severe infection; you are in fact having a thrombotic problem caused by the spike, and thus you get the higher titer.

That should have raised all sorts of eyebrows and alarms in that it strongly implies that all the vaccine formulations were at best backward and at worst directly harmful but, again, it didn't.

So what we have at this point appears to be the following:

  • The jabs are quite worthless in preventing either infection or transmission.  We knew that after Diamond Princess 80% of the population, approximately, was resistant before Covid showed up and either couldn't get infected at all or if they did had almost no ill effects.  There were multiple instances of couples where one person got a symptomatic case and the other did not get infected at all despite being quarantined together in a 10x10 room for a month.  That means if you have 10% of a vaccinated population that gets symptomatically infected when the base risk of symptomatic infection is 20% at best the jabs are 50% effective in preventing infection and transmission, and perhaps less than that.  So much for the "95%+" claims; that was always bull**** and now we have widely-diverse proof from all over the world that the jabs are non-sterilizing and thus effectively worthless in preventing infection and transmission of Covid.  The entire premise of "protecting others" by getting vaccinated against Covid-19 is now scientifically known to be complete and utter bull****.

  • There is now emerging evidence of another mutation against which the jabs are almost entirely worthless.  Expect the fear porn to get cranked on that soon even though for infected and recovered persons who are not vaccinated they remain almost entirely immune to that mutation just like all the others.  Even worse is that the data includes some people who recovered and then were stupid enough to take the jab anyway and it increased their risk of symptomatic disease over the other cohort which recovered and did not get vaccinated.  In other words they didn't get more protection by taking the shot after recovery they destroyed a large part of their existing protection, specifically, existing nucleocapsid recognition.  I have warned people repeatedly of this exact risk; there was never any scientific evidence that the jabs were useful if you had previously been infected and now we factually know they're harmful.  This is a very strong marker of what is called "OAS" ("Original Antigenic Sin") or ADE as described scientifically above as to mechanism.  It looks to be very real and accelerating as mutation continues.  The "vaccinated" symptomatic case line should be expected to cross over the "unvaccinated" line soon as mutation never stops and if it does all Hell will break loose as the shots will actually make symptomatic infection and thus transmission more likely compared against unvaccinated persons.

  • The jabs may continue to provide some protection against severe and fatal disease from Covid-19 specifically but the duration of that protection is unknown.  If you're at severe risk then on this basis they may be a good bargain.  I say may rather than "is" for the below reasons which, if they turn out to be true in your case means on balance you got ****ed more than protected, and now they're a bad deal for basically everyone.  We do not yet know the answers to the other questions but they are on the table and were deliberately not investigated before we jabbed 150 million Americans.  Some if not all of this was discoverable if anyone cared to look during the summer and fall 2020 trials, but nobody looked on purpose.

  • There is evidence that roughly half of all persons jabbed may show evidence of clotting disorders caused by the jabs.  Whether this is temporary or does permanent damage is not known.  It explains, however, the heart attacks, cardiomylitis, strokes and cognitive changes (e.g. microclotting in the brain) shortly after being jabbed.  I remind you that the "associated but not proved cause" death rate from these jabs is running roughly four hundred times on a per-million-persons jabbed that of the flu shot -- and climbing.  The bad news is that endothelial damage of this sort may well be permanent.  It also raises the very real risk of PAH if some of that damage is in the lungs; there is no non-invasive way to know and by the time you become symptomatic for that your heart has been critically damaged.  To be fair some small percentage of people naturally infected get the same sort of damage but to risk same from infection which is not certain is different than taking that risk on a certain basis from being jabbed.  This could have been quantified before the EUAs were granted as a trivial test would have disclosed the problem in the Phase 1 and 2 trials and was not done or explored.  Given that by summer of 2020 we knew how Covid killed people that failure is only reasonably characterized as intentional.

  • There is now evidence that the jabs destroy some part of your existing immune system T-cell recognition, replacing it with "spike" recognition.  The scope and impact of that is not yet known but the potential impact is horrifying.  The induced spike recognition is Covid-19 specific and, we now know, mutationally specific at least in part.  What is destroyed is not specific to either Covid or mutation and therefore what you destroyed was almost-certainly worth more than what you gained.  This looks very much like "OAS" and the bad news is that it may well impact across other coronaviruses such as OC43.  If that proves up then the increase in susceptibility to severe disease on balance and in whole from circulating viruses has been increased rather than decreased by getting jabbed.

All of this has come to light in about a year from the first trials of these vaccines.

I remind you that it usually takes 10 years or so to qualify a vaccine.  These sort of risks are why it takes 10 years and, let us not forget, coronavirus vaccines have been tried in the past and have universally failed, either due to adverse effects (including OAS and ADE) or they simply proved to be worthless over time with the virus evading them.  That was the history against which these jabs were developed and that we had the arrogance to believe we had magically overcome that which nature had previously thwarted without multi-year evidence may well wind up proving to be one of the most stupid undertakings ever in medicine and public health.

Yet even with this data now on the table the manufacturers are demanding "expedited" full approval reviews!

Oh, and don't start with "well, its knocking down the incidence of infections."  Is it really?

How is it that India has seen a 90% collapse in case rates with only 6% of their population vaccinated?

It clearly wasn't the vaccine over there, was it?  Gee, maybe its Farr's Law that caused that.  Just like the infection rate here in the US peaked and was falling before we had any meaningful vaccinated immunity.  That which happens before you do something cannot have been caused by the something.

This also bears on the current case rate.  Look at last summer; seasonality is real.

We'll see how bad #JabbersRemorse gets in the coming months, and whether the 150 million Americans who took the jab thus far decide they made a good decision or a critically bad one that winds up blowing up in their face -- and if the latter, what those who get screwed, which is about half the adult population at this point, decide to do about it when it comes to those who deliberately failed to investigate what we knew were serious risks that needed to be excluded.

Those who are true believers cannot be reached at this point since they've already committed to their course of action.  As a result I see no further point in writing on this in the general sense, and thus probably won't.

Right up until I wave the "Told You So" flag sometime around late fall, assuming the pattern holds.

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Skybluepink
Posts: 650
Incept: 2007-10-20

RI
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Thank you for all of your work on this, you are a beacon of sanity in this crazy world. The t-cell recognition issue would explain why my aunt and uncle are still fighting a "summer cold" a month and a half and three antibiotics later....
Cmoledor
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Akron Ohio
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Youve done all you could Karl. Rest easy knowing that. At this point I think youre just preaching to the choir. Let the chips fall where they may. I for one absolutely appreciate all that youve done for us. And you have done this for us. Godspeed.

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Tickerguy
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Yep -- and there is absolutely no reason to believe that said T-cell recognition harm is limited to Covid-19. In fact the opposite is the default presumption, since we know that ~80% of people had cross-reactive T-cell responses TO Covid despite never having been exposed.

You have to assume that something which goes one way goes the other until you have evidence to the contrary. I did not expect this, incidentally -- I expected only that in recovered individuals there would be no statistical benefit. That there is now not only empirical evidence of damage (higher infection rates among previously recovered who took the shot .vs. previously recovered who did not) but also a legitimate scientific explanation as to why, backed by a recent paper, is pretty damned definitive and in addition raises further questions that demand answers: Exactly how far does this damage extend and, specifically, does it extend beyond coronaviruses?

If it DOES then.... oh boy.

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Ktrosper
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ft collins co
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Thank you

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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
I anticipate that 10 Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders will blow me this evening.-K.D.
Olddad
Posts: 112
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Inman
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Outside of my immediate household, everyone in our family has been jabbed. With all the evidence piling up about what could happen come fall, winter and beyond you would think they would be wearing out their doctors' phones trying to find some way to get ahead of a potential downturn in their health as related to the jabs. But, no. They are all of the opinion, "We've already been vaxxed, so there's no reason to talk or think about it," and then they just shut down the conversation or stop listening. So I agree, Karl, they cannot be reached, and honestly I don't know how I will feel if we lose one or more members of our family as a result. I do know I will have to fight off waving the "I told you so" flag".
Tickerguy
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@Olddad - There's nothing they can reasonably do about it. That's the basic problem with a vaccine; you're stuck with the effects for good or bad, unlike a drug that typically has a short half-life in the body and, while the DAMAGE might be permanent they're designed to be cleared over a period of hours or days.

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Frat
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NKY
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So - and this is a quite serious question, since I usually don't buy into the Tin Foil crap: are they doing this on purpose to kill people, or is it just pure greed and damn the consequences?

Hell, at this point, I am 50/50, but... in the end, it's probably both.

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We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman Kyle Rittenhouse when you need him?
Tickerguy
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To expand a bit on where the problem with nucleocapsid T-cell destruction likely comes from.....

When you get a coronavirus the spike has evolved to evade the immune system. That's why you get sick in the first place, otherwise the spike would get attacked and destroyed before it could invade cells. An "invaded" cell gets destroyed when identified, but if the "free" spike is identified and destroyed that would likely produce no pathology and the virus would fail, since it can't reproduce before it gets inside a cell.

Thus what we're doing with these shots -- causing very high IgG titers to the spike -- is something that typically DOES NOT HAPPEN with natural infection at all. If it DOES happen it's because you got asspounded and likely died (or got damn close.) It was NEVER in evidence that doing this was safe because it doesn't happen in people who get mild or moderate infections. Rather than look at that IN DETAIL FIRST we just went ahead and figured "antibodies are antibodies."

Uh, no they're not. The immune system is complex and we have a relatively poor understanding of it, SPECIFICALLY when it comes to interactions.

It thus now appears that producing a high IgG antibody titer to the spike preferentially replaces some of the existing T-cell immunity to nucleocapsids in favor of the "new matrix" if you will. That's ****ed up but in people with a good immune response doesn't matter under natural infective challenge because that simply NEVER HAPPENS in those individuals. Our body's immune system thus NEVER EVOLVED to prevent that outcome as it was never challenged that way and thus natural selection was NEVER PRESSURED to favor that outcome.

Pursuing the path we took without first examining whether it was a common path under natural infective pressure was....

****ING STUPID

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Abelardlindsey
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At this stage of the game, I'm more concerned about the legalities. If the FDA grants full approval for these vaccines, I think employers are going to be more emboldened to mandate them. I'm in a rather high demand field. So I'm probably OK with regards to this. Employers in my field may or may not know that we will walk before taking a vaccine. At least I will.

Nevertheless, I'm still concerned about the legalities of all of this.

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No liability, No mandates
Purplefang
Posts: 500
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Oklahoma
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My brain is melting. This **** really pisses me off. I have to admit my understanding of the immune system is not what it needs to be. So all the focus getting the immune system to massively respond to the spike is fundamentally flawed. This is not how we naturally respond to a corona virus. Getting the immune system to focus on the spike comes at the expense of diminishing a broader immune response. It is obvious our normal response has kept us alive since birth with very little difficulty.
Bluebird
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SW Ohio
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What if some people do not get horrible side effects from either having the Covid virus or getting the jab, at this time.

But what if years pass while the virus or vaccine lurks in the body. Then something triggers an active case whereby people have heart attack, stroke, or CJD?

I'm thinking of a child having the chickenpox, but then getting shingles decades later. While shingles is obvious from having chickenpox, maybe there will be a test that would conclude the person had the Covid or vaccine that resulted years later in a heart attack, stroke or CJD.

Reason: typo
Tickerguy
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@Frat - I suspect pure money motives here, and once they figured out they ****ed up (which was evident real quickly when the rollout started en-masse) the panic came too.

Admit it and your firm is destroyed and you'll be lucky to get a decent burial. Take several million people and tell them you ****ed them, likely permanently, because greed and speed were all you cared about and there are not enough cops and private security to keep you and every member of your family line from being burnt at the stake. I don't give a **** how much money or "status" you have being tied to a telephone pole with a ****-ton of wood piled up around you and set on fire hurts EXACTLY THE SAME and that's obvious to EVERYONE.

@Abelardlindsey - Frankly, being "concerned" about that is stupid. Do you care about the legalities if someone shoves a gun in your face? No, you act as you must, and if you have the means and obtain the opportunity because they suffer a moment of inattention in threatening to kill you then you blow their head off and end the threat. Period.

All this "worry" stuff is ****ing stupid. This is a real virus and in the first few months we didn't know much about it but NOW we know how to interdict it. We also KNOW that if you get it and survive you gain LONG TERM protection SUPERIOR to any of their alleged jabs. Interdicting it doesn't work for everyone but neither does paying attention when driving. Nonetheless you can materially alter the risk of a bad outcome when operating a car by not sticking your nose in your ******ned cellphone and taking the time to learn the operational limits of both yourself and your vehicle BEFORE being challenged with a bad situation. If you choose not to do that, well then the risk is what it is.

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Aztrader
Posts: 8681
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Scottsdale, AZ
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I have argued with so many people about this and so many just lined up and took it. They believed the lies and wanted to join the herd. Now they can get buried with the herd.
Bluebird
Posts: 2266
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SW Ohio
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@Aztrader - What if the herd doesn't get buried for 5 years? 10 years? What if only a few pass away at a time, not all at once? People are not going to conclude they died because of getting jabbed.
Purplefang
Posts: 500
Incept: 2010-03-28

Oklahoma
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No sane person who fully understands this stuff would consent to these injections. The FDA is irrelevant. I propose doing a challenge study utilizing all the proponents of these shots. The pharma CEO's, top staff at FDA, NIH, CDC, the President, the ex-Presidents, Governors are automatically enrolled in this experiment. Any jackass who stated in public these jabs are safe has given consent to be experimented on.
Nolaguy
Posts: 158
Incept: 2007-11-11

New Orleans
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Quote:
What if only a few pass away at a time, not all at once? People are not going to conclude they died because of getting jabbed.

If 40% of the population is not vaxxed, then it might be pretty easy to conclude there is an increasing trend in deaths of the jabbed - regardless of time. I could be wrong here.

For those in authority that know the vaccine is dangerous, in my opinion, this could be their reason to aggressively promote vaccinating everyone. Removing the control group eliminates "vaxxed vs unvaxxed" comparisons, and ultimately might keep them from getting bbq'd.

If I'm right, can you imagine the conversations happening in some government conference rooms? "Holy ****, they are going to hang us if we can't hide these deaths..."
Ocdawg
Posts: 78
Incept: 2019-03-14

WI- Home of Bozo the Governor
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Karl,
As always, spot on... and THANK YOU!!!

I'm a simple guy, so here's my latest question:
Assuming only 10% of the 150 million jabbed succumb to their compromised immune systems in the next 3-5 years... how the f--k are we going to deal with 15 million corpses? And what kind of "utopia" will that create?

I seem to keep harkening back to "Soylent Green"....
Inline

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COVID 19 "response"= the biggest scam in human history
Aztrader
Posts: 8681
Incept: 2007-09-10

Scottsdale, AZ
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Betting that this spike protein screws up the immune system to a point where any serious infection is ignored and spreads throughout the body. They may be pushing this for the money, but based on this fake governments actions to date, I feel it's something more nefarious.
They are pushing this crap way to hard knowing already that it doesn't help a person in any way. The media hides the true deaths due to the vaccine, and big tech blocks or deletes any articles or comments that criticize the vaccine. This just stinks to hell.
Lunatic_fringe
Posts: 9439
Incept: 2007-06-26

Location: Terra Firma
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The only saving grace may be that all the virtue signaling politicians and celebrities who got the shot on camera may take it up the pipe.

I will laugh my butt off if that happens. And yes, I know that's a rotten thing to say but I really don't care anymore.
Bigbuzzle
Posts: 92
Incept: 2020-03-10

The great north woods
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The "party" (woke mob) will never admit that they ****ed up. They will obfuscate the data and gaslight the herd and no link will be made to the increased illness/death caused by the fauci ouchy. I think the truth will eventually come out via scattered scientific research and papers, but this data will be ignored just as it it now. The truth is out right now in the real science, but the PTB ignores and obfuscates it.
Cvdoc
Posts: 497
Incept: 2009-06-11

Washington, DC
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A few comments here. Everyone is trying to understand immunity. Its complicated, and there is not a lot we know about it. Coronaviruses are particularly tricky. However, ask yourself this question: why were there no successful coronavirus vaccines in animals or humans prior to 9 months ago? It certainly was not for lack of trying.

(1) First we start with common cold coronaviruses. These infect 30-40% of the population yearly (or at least they used to). Generally nobody dies from infection, but repeat infections are common. Additionally, if you are immune compromised, obese, or very old, you tend to sometimes do very worse than usual.

(2) This means that we never get long term sterilizing immunity to coronaviruses. All of the animal experiments done have very short timeframes. The B cell response is transient, as we have seen. So what is really happening?

(3) Your body is continually trained by repeat infection to (a) have trained non-specific innate immunity, which lowers viral load; and (b) to have adaptive memory CD8 T cell effector immunity, which kills off virally infected cells and prevents you from getting very sick or dying. In some people (ie children) this is so strong you dont even know you had an infection.

(4) Vaccination to the spike gives a short term burst of sterilizing immunity at a cost of immunosuppression between doses 1 and 2 (for reasons we dont quite understand, likely due to a natural reaction to tamp down immunity). Spike vaccination also creates B and T cell memory only to the spike, and it is very narrow. This allows immune escape from antibody neutralization, and thus the repeat infections. However, after dose 2 you get a CD8 T cell response to the spike, which is likely long lasting. Thus, most people who get infected with escape variants will have mild disease.

(5) Natural infection gives broad B and T cell immunity, but the B cell response is shallow (if it was too great we would all die of severe immune reactions). Thus it is not quite sterilizing. However, just like with the common cold, repeat infections build a strong memory CD8 T cell response, so you dont get too sick going forwards.

(6) The only way out of this mess is repeat exposure to naturally occurring variants of the virus. Just like the common cold.

(7) Vaccines to the spike will give you a short term burst of sterilizing anti-spike antibodies, at the cost of these antibodies causing severe complications in a small number of people. This is why we never had a vaccine to the common cold.

(8) However, in the vulnerable, there may be enough spike CD8 T cells created after two shots to ameliorate severe disease, since these people have trouble mounting their own natural immune response. Everyone else likely needs very little, and we have to balance these serious auto-immune responses with the burst of sterilizing immunity that is transient.

Its been a long ride, trying to get everyone grounded in molecular biology, virology, immunology, and therapeutics. Problem is the corruption in politics and medicine is seemingly insurmountable

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Few men desire liberty; most men wish only for a just master.
Sallust
Cvdoc
Posts: 497
Incept: 2009-06-11

Washington, DC
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And yes. It was Farrs Law. Here is something I wrote last year.

Farrs Law: In Action Since 1840

In 1840, Farr set out his theories on the smallpox outbreak. (https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=n.... ). His numerous observations then are still valid and should guide our thinking on the epidemiology of all infections and especially Covid-19.

Farr showed that epidemics rise and fall in roughly a bell-shaped curve (a normal distribution) shape.


Farr demonstrated that once peak infection has been reached then it would roughly follow the same symmetrical pattern on the downward slope. However, under testing and variations in testing regimes means we have no way of knowing when the peak of infections occurred in any given pandemic.

Due to these variations he proposed we should use the data on deaths to predict the peak. There is a predicted time lag from infection to COVID deaths (https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru....

Once peak deaths have been reached we should be working on this assumption that the infection rates is falling in the same progressive steps. As with other infections, death rates are lagging indicator for infections and should guide the planning of the next steps for reopening those societies that are in lockdown.

Farr also explained the problem with density in epidemics. In situations of high-density the course of infection may be prolonged. Specifically for Covid-19, mortality may be extended in confined populations (e.g., in nursing homes and hospitals) particularly if distancing cannot occur and if stringent measures to prevent onward infection are not instituted. In the previous SARs outbreak, a lack of isolation facilities allowed infection of patients admitted to the same wards for other reasons: many admissions as is the case now did not have typical signs of SARS, which led to worsening of infection control. (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/article.... In Covid-19 neither Canada (https://www.mcknights.com/news/81-percen.... nor the United States (https://abcnews.go.com/US/coronavirus-fa.... learned the lessons that Asia did with SARS.

In the second phase of the 2002-3 outbreak in Toronto transmission occurred mainly within health care settings (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK92.... Hospital workers were placed under 10-day work quarantine, avoided public places, close contact with friends and family, and wore a mask whenever public contact was unavoidable to prevent transmission. 17 years later this lesson was also not learned. Again, a small number of cases, which do not follow the expected geometric progression, then a sudden explosion. When reporting is actually done we see patterns where a huge percentage of the first infected reports are in hospitals. Medical workers in hospitals are a tiny fraction of the entire population and yet they often make up 1/5th to a 1/6th of the original infected population sample and drive the second wave. This has happened repeatedly, beginning in Wuhan. (https://www.fox9.com/news/1-in-5-covid-1....

Singapore identified this immediately and stopped the madness by mandating washing of hands with soap and water, not so-called sanitizers, before and after each contact with a person or thing that could potentially be infected. By doing that they dropped the infection rate of their hospital staff to a statistical zero and almost immediately thereafter the outbreak there was under control. They still get a case here and there, but the simple fact is that it isnt that easy for social transmission of this bug to take place, except through super-spreading events. (https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk.... (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nco....

Singapore couldnt have stopped transmission to health care workers without mandating strict hand hygiene standards. We have repeatedly seen this pattern where you have a case here and there, a few people show up in the hospital and then the sudden exponential explosion occurs after failing to follow the predicted geometric progression for weeks and it happens in city after city. Social distancing doesnt stop or reverse it and neither do stay at home orders, even when backed up with the threat of fines or worse.

We have long known that medical workers, including doctors and nurses, do NOT wash their hands in hospitals generally. They are also exempted from lockdowns. Healthcare workers in New York used the public transportation and indeed contact tracing showed that infections in New York City tracked that transportation system. (https://www2.nber.org/papers/w27021).

The only other way to stop this type of transmission is to arrange so all Covid patients go to hospitals where nobody is allowed in the building unless actively ill, in which case they cant leave until not, or proved seroconverted by antibody test and thus immune. This Sanatorium model was utilized in Wuhan, but would never have been tolerated in the West.

Farr also illustrated that those who are the most mortal die out, and in a pandemic are those in most need of shielding (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nco....

In the midst of a pandemic, it is easy to forget Farrs Law, and think the number infected will just keep rising, it will not. Just as quick as measures were introduced to prevent the spread of infection we need to recognize the point at which to open up society and also the special measures due to density that require special considerations.

But most of all we must remember the most important message Farr left us: What goes up must come down.

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Few men desire liberty; most men wish only for a just master.
Sallust
Erroldo
Posts: 393
Incept: 2013-09-12

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And the pressure on the FDA to approve is on. Even the POTUS is now commenting that the FDA may approve by school opening season/ Putting the word out to the public to drive his conclusion.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-e....

Jen
Posts: 104
Incept: 2011-01-02

Northern Virginia
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The True Believers will blame the nonvaxxed, and feel relieved that it could have been much worse if they weren't vaxxed. If only 10% of the populations dies, then the death rate might have been 40 or 50% if it weren't for the vaccines.

These idiots truly believe you will die if you don't get the vax.

At this point, I believe TPTB know how bad the vaccines could be, and if they vax everyone, there won't be a control group.

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Yes, there are stupid questions.
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