Science: Masks and Aerosols
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FACT: Masks against Covid-19 do not work because under the laws of physics they can't and both governors and mayors have and continue to kill your grandfather for political reasons.
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2020-07-04 14:10 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 2224 references Ignore this thread
Science: Masks and Aerosols*
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Let's look at physics and mathematics folks.

We'll start with a single cough or sneeze.

Everyone "knows" that if you cover a cough or sneeze, and you should do it into your sleeve instead of your hand, this will reduce the risk of someone else getting a virus you may have, right?

Wrong.

It doesn't.  So says the science!  This is a myth, just like it is a myth that you can wear a mask and reduce transmission.

Wait -- you say!  YUCK; that's obvious that it helps.

Well, no.

Here's why.

You sneeze and a huge loogie comes out your nose.  Yuck!  Nasty!  Mucus, full of germs.

It goes, if uncovered...... downward, on the floor.

And harms nobody.

It's disgusting, but that's it.  You should still do it anyway because it's disgusting not to, but you won't stop a virus by doing so.

What?  If I stop the loogie then how come that doesn't do anything?

Because in addition to the loogie out come a bunch of large drops, each also laden with virus.  Maybe a few hundred drops.  Yuck!  Thus covering or physically blocking those will reduce transmission to other people, right?

Wrong again, statistically speaking.

Why?

Because in that same forceful exhale are an enormous number of sub-micron water droplets that are formed as the saturated vapor in your lungs (100% RH in expired air) cools slightly as it travels up from the lungs to the trachea and out the mouth or nose and comes into contact with the ambient air (well, unless it's over 98.6F in the air where you are anyway!)

Remember your basic physics:  As any saturated vapor cools it condenses.  Any saturated vapor that cools by even a tiny amount will condense -- that is, coalesce the individual vapor molecules into larger aggregates.

Ordinary "tidal volume" (that is, the amount of air you move in a resting condition with each inhalation) is about 500ml.  For a cough or sneeze it is much larger; the maximum volume of air that can be inspired in adult human lungs typically is in the range of 4-6L, or eight to 12 times the "at rest" breathing amount.

When we breathe normally we produce very few or no large droplets.  When we sing, play a wind instrument, yell, scream, cough or sneeze we produce a fairly large number of them.

But none of this matters at all, statistically, because with each breath we produce millions of small condensate drops, and all of them which do not aggregate beyond the pore size of the medium in a mask will go right through said mask in either direction, most of those condensed molecules are produced between the lungs and either before or just after exit from the body due to condensation of the 100% RH water vapor and each of them individually, if you are infected with a virus, can carry enough virons to infect another person.

We've all "seen our breath" outside when it's cold.

That's aggregation and condensation to a great enough degree that the aggregates are visible; there are thousands to millions more said aggregates that are too small to see and when it's not cold outside none of them aggregate and condense sufficiently to be visible but they are all still there.

Note that during ordinary breathing the mean particle size is sub-micron.  Statistically none of these are filtered in either direction by anything less than an N95.

This is why physics says that masks don't work against viruses and exactly zero RCTs show that they do.

Never mind the repeated attempts to mandate masks in 1918 which did nothing to prevent the spread.  Of course the revisionism of today says "well it's because people didn't adhere to it."  Sure, there were people who put up the middle finger; after all, they threw people in jail for refusing -- but the facts are that nearly everyone complied.

Every single person that has ever "seen their breath" in the winter months knows, if they think about it for 30 seconds, why masks can't work and don't.

They can't work because blocking 1,000 pretty-large droplets sounds like it's great except hundreds of thousands or even millions of condensed water vapor molecule clusters were also expelled, they have enough virons on them to infect another person and very nearly zero of those are caught by the mask in either direction.  The ones you see when you breathe out in the winter are >50um in size (the limit of visibility to the unaided eye); more than 50 times the size of the mean particle you actually exhale.  Worse, every one of those tiny particles, unless condensed out or breathed in by someone else can remain in the air for hours since they are small enough to remain within the purview of brownian motion of air molecules; that is, they "float" so to speak because the energy of said molecular vibration and ordinary air currents, even indoors, is large compared to the pull of gravity toward the ground and thus they remain suspended in the air.

The reason we have a flu season, as I've noted, is that the higher the absolute humidity, which tracks with temperature, the greater the odds that further agglomeration of these clusters of molecules will occur and once they get large enough gravity takes over as they are too heavy and they fall to the ground harmlessly.

So your mask stopped the nasty-looking and smelling loogie which can infect exactly one person, unless you wipe it around on people, and 1,000 of the 5,000 modest-size droplets you expelled. This is why the mask gets nasty all over the inside (which, by the way, if left on for any length of time or reused will breed bacteria on the inside surface which you can inhale, and it will be very bad for you if you do so.)

But it's worthless in terms of protecting anyone else because at the same time you expelled the 5,001 droplets and stopped 1,001, which sounds like a decent hazard reduction, you also expelled anywhere from thousands to several million micrometer-size drops, an effective none of which were stopped, all of which are infectious, and thus you actually caught materially less than 1% of the potential infections that can screw someone else!

1% is not statistically significant.  Filtering out 0.1-1% of the infectious events out at the source DOES NOTHING.

The reason workers in a virus lab wear moon suits, go through multiple e sets of sealed doors with decontamination procedures before that suit is removed and breathe pressurized outside air while inside the lab is that these are facts and said virus -- any virus -- will go right through any "mask."

Then there is an often-cited NIH review that claims that masks "might" work.  Well, that depends on the mask.  If you read the actual study you'll find that there is a RCT (again, the gold standard for medical science) that found that cloth masks increased transmission -- in other words, they were worse than the control group that was wearing nothing!  That study found N95s to be effective (no surprise) and that surgical masks might be, but non-medical masks aren't part of the debate -- and yet that, and cloth, are what we're talking about here in the general public.  That same review also noted that coronaviruses appear to be preferentially emitted in aerosols as opposed to droplets, which instantly destroys the argument for source control since anything that does not have a high quality seal and fit will pass nearly all of your aerosol (as opposed to larger droplets) right out into the space around you.

Oh, and don't run any bull**** about "oh it's only so-called droplets" nonsense in terms of being specific to Covid19 either.  That's another common claim but there's zero scientific evidence for that.  I'm not the only one who's noticed this -- there's a group of 239 scientists who signed a letter to the WHO.  Not that they should have needed to; unless you're a mouth-breathing idiot the early outbreak in an apartment building at Wuhan and another in Hong Kong where there were no plumbing traps and thus gas (aerosol) from people's scat was getting into other people's apartments and the outbreak occurred across floors in units where the individuals had no reasonable possibility of personal or droplet contact along with the choir group that took all manner of reasonable precaution yet got infected anyway all make clear that in fact the so-called "large drop only" theory is nonsense.  It not only has no basis given the spread we have observed it has no basis in physics either.

Never mind what appears to be one very-well researched and run down super-spread event in Germany -- in a meat-packing plant after compulsory mask-wearing was put into place for employees.  The masks were worthless; a huge number of people were infected and they were able to trace the index case too because of a fortuitous mutation that allowed them to sequence the RNA and prove it.  That put the final nail in the coffin of those who claimed this is not an "aerosol" (whether originating from feces or out your respiratory tract) disease.

Further, as I've repeatedly noted, that Covid-19 isn't following the laws of physics on the agglomeration that occurs with absolute humidity is very strong evidence (but not proof), again on the science, that it is in large part not being transmitted through the air but rather by contact with contaminated surfaces and since we know intact virus is found in feces fecal contamination is very likely involved (exactly as it is with polio, which also didn't follow the laws of physics on aerosol or droplet transmission because it wasn't, in the main, transmitted that way.)  A mask does nothing to prevent "fomite" (item-based) transmission whatsoever nor does it work as source control for feces, obviously.  In fact wearing a mask may make transmission materially more-likely if the mask is not taken from a clean, sterile container only after you have washed your hands, is then put on, and once removed you immediately wash your hands and do not re-use the mask until and unless it has been sterilized.  This, of course, is impossible if you are out in the public and desire to eat or drink something.  As soon as you do contamination of yourself and others, if there is contamination on your mask, is assured.  In short a mask is a filter and thus concentrates whatever is in the environment on its two surfaces; on the interior from what you exhale and on the exterior from the environment around you.  Once a mask is worn, even for a few minutes, it is biologically dangerous both to you and others and becomes more dangerous the longer you have it on.  Without proper protocol you are more likely to infect yourself or others if pathogens are present than protect anyone at all and that protocol is utterly impossible to follow in general public life.

This has been noted in the literature; this article is often cited as "supporting" community mask mandates.  If you actually read it it does no such thing because of exactly what I've noted above:

Taking a mask off is a high-risk process (34) because pathogens may be present on the outer surface of the mask and may result in self-contamination during removal (31).

If your position on "masks" is really one that includes closing all places where food and/or beverages of any sort are consumed on-premise, along with the banning of consumption of food or beverages in public where by definition you will not be able to follow good protocol with a mask to limit cross-contamination of others and self-infection then just say so and be done with it.  Those arguing for mask orders in the public in fact are arguing for a complete and permanent lockdown except to go get groceries or take a trip to the hospital; they must be forced to come clean as to their actual intent.  So long as any firm can remain in operation that permits or serves food or beverages of any sort for on-premise consumption masks are likely to increase infection rates because from an epidemiological point of view once used they are exactly identical to used toilet paper in terms of infection risk and if you put a used one on a table or bar you just contaminated that surface.  Once you put a used one back on your face without first sterilizing it you have just contaminated yourself.

We have known all of this since February, as I have documented.

Physics is not a list of suggestions folks.

It is a list of natural laws that nobody can violate.

Masks are worthless when it comes to viral transmission by aerosol and in addition they are obviously also worthless against transmission that occurs due to contact with contaminated surfaces or objects.  That's the physics of it and nobody has ever demonstrated an ability to modify the laws of physics.  Only an N95 (or better) can attenuate to any meaningful degree viruses in exhaled or inhaled breath simply because virus particles and the water vapor particles that carry them are small enough to pass right through anything less.  It is like trying to stop mosquitoes with a chain-link fence.  I'm sure you get a few, but not enough to matter.

Grow up, deal with the fact that masks are worthless, learn to live with the fact that this virus will not be responsive to voodoo or magical incantations by governors, mayors or anyone else.  Manual removal of potential contamination from your hands by washing with soap and water will help, but there is no guarantee because as we know this virus can spread through multiple vectors.  The sooner those who are not significantly harmed by this virus get it and thus inhibit transmission the sooner it will be equivalent in its impact to seasonal flu or less.

There is no other reality folks, and for reasons I've explained before a vaccine is unlikely to work either.  Don't get your hopes up for that as you are very likely to be disappointed.

If this nation cannot face the realities of physics then we are back to the persecution of Galileo and the burning of "witches" at Salem.  There is utterly no point in my, or any other thinking person's continued engagement on any matter of economics, politics, public health or other policy if that is to be the regression of intelligence and logic among the people of this nation as what was America is doomed to collapse back into the Dark Ages.

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Nadavegan
Posts: 264
Incept: 2017-05-03

The South
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It makes you safe from data and logic, for sure.
Aztrader
Posts: 8562
Incept: 2007-09-10

Scottsdale, AZ
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Saw this from the weekend. More fear mongering to enslave the masses: https://news.yahoo.com/scientists-ignore....
Tickerguy
Posts: 166254
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A True American Patriot!
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@Aztrader -- No, what they're talking about is the absolute truth -- and it's why masks are worthless.

It's PHYSICS.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Whitehat
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Gone West
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Flaps wrote..
I went to a cookout yesterday where multiple college faculty,along with their spouses, across at least six different disciplines were present. The attendees ranged from physics to philosophy. The general consensus, with no detractors, was "we gave the government and its experts a chance but we've about had enough."

good thing i was not there. How many of them will protest their employers' on-campus decisions and rules? They will all play the game to keep their positions and resource allocations. None will take a public stand. Trust me, even if they are tenured, to keep their course allotment and other monies which the universities can **** them on, they will wear a spacesuit if told to and tell the students to wipe their asses with gasoline if that is the rule.

This goes all the way back to Germany of the thirties. The university people followed the "rules" and party line to keep their positions. And they all had something to say against it at their little social soirees.

That's the problem here. No one wishes to risk anything, and seeks only to cover his own ass or ensure his convenience and comfort.

Then again, i would not be there. University people are shunned.

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Keeping the underground economy keeps the peace and allows rebellious elements to protest their condition without actually protesting the government.

What were you doing over the years as your children's future was being destroyed? Do not expect them to fix your mistakes or tolerate you for them.
Invisiblesun
Posts: 82
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Maryland
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Months ago it was reported that person's recovered from Covid could test positive from the presence of "dead" virus / RNA strands. When we talk of asymptomatic Covid patients, how many of them actually caught the bug and their immune system defeated it? But they test positive and the media and fearmongers run with the fake news?

What does a positive PCR test actually mean? It does not mean a person is sick or contagious.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/202005....
Mannfm11
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DFW, Tx
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These are the same lying bastards who said HCQ didn't work. The same ones who said Manhattan would largely be under water by 2008. The fact it didn't go away in the heat, the curve blew up with way over 70& wearing mask tells me these guys need a whole bar of Ex-Lax. Then they will find themselves closer to the source.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Tickerguy
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@Invisiblesun - Even under PERFECT lab conditions RT-PCR tests are only "two nines" accurate. In the field they're roughly 1-1/2 nines (95%).

This means if you take 100,000 people who DO NOT have Covid, and test them all, you claim 5,000 people are Covid+.

They are not only not symptomatic they will never become symptomatic because none of them actually have it.

The DANGER is that if they believe they had it, are asymptomatic, two weeks later are retested and now negative they may believe they're partially or completely immune when they were never exposed!

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Mercury
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Nice ticker. Heres my 2 cents:

Whether you like it or not it is widely accepted the covering your mouth when you cough or sneeze is a good thing. Masks simply provide the scared, screaming, lunatic Karens one thingHOPE. Thats a powerful feeling in the FEELZ world we live in. I see a sliver of positivity in that most of the Karens are on the left side politically and that by successfully scaring the living bee-geez-us out of everyone the media may have actually assisted in getting people out of their houses and at least participating in the economy by wearing a face covering. That cant be all that bad except these creatures also want the rest of us to be a part of their club and by not becoming a member youre not only making them FEEL bad but also endangering their precious little lives by removing their perceived HOPE. Same way the TSA makes us all feel safe at airports. Its a thin veneer of total and complete bull**** that when pierced exposes the real facts and truth per this ticker.

I wonder what steps we would take as a society if this thing is killing 10% of the population.

My sinister brain still wholeheartedly believes the Chinese unleashed this as retaliation for the current economic war we have with them. They are using the world as their science experiment to gather data to further understand the USAs reaction and behaviors to a pandemic to eventually take us out by unleashing the MOAV (Mother of all viruses) in order to control the world.
Jeepguy
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Ohio
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Under lab conditions mask wearers blow goats, and a new study shows if you buy the media hype you've got rocks in your head, like Mike pence upholding this ****! This coffee is delicious I've got to run!
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
The above reminds of someone, but I can't think of who! Of course he would've provided sources for the studies cited!
Jeepguy
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Ohio
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@Aztrader
Inline
Tickerguy
Posts: 166254
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A True American Patriot!
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"A new study shows that a mask makes an excellent IFF device."

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Depression2020
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Incept: 2020-03-20

Northern Virginia
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Media machine still cranking out the daily fear porn: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/06/immunity....

OMG herd immunity won't work, vaccines won't work, we're DOOOMED. Surgically attach face masks and lockdowns to infinity! smiley

Media still sniping the Orange man every time he misspeaks. Assuming he meant that 99% of people who get Wuhan Flu will live, they snipe him because he says it is "harmless" to 99%. Good job media, you got the Orange Man again! Go scream some more about the increased hospitalizations. We all know they will go easy on Senile Old Joe though.
Jack_crabb
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Peoples' Republik of Maryland
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Serious question: Why in the **** should we believe ANYTHING the lame stream media says about the beer virus?

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Molon Labe
Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
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Bodhi
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Canton, GA
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Quote:
Serious question: Why in the **** should we believe ANYTHING the lame stream media says about the beer virus?


We shouldn't. That's why in another thread I wrote that it was all 100% bull****. That includes our dear governments at every level. I don't believe any stat that comes out of a government agency. I certainly don't believe anything that comes from the lamestream media.
Redjack
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Iowa
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As I mentioned before, I used to wear high protection than mandated all the time, and TG is right, except for one point.
Redjack
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Incept: 2018-01-29

Iowa
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Most masks have an exhale valve. So if you are SICK, the mask will just concentrate the bug and spread it a bit faster. Never mind that most Karens and Biffs have their nose outside the mask.

A PAPR would work, but they are very expensive. My 3M 6000 series is great, unless I am sick and then it gives YOU no protection from ME. The screamer with her nose hanging out? Yeah, nothing.
Tickerguy
Posts: 166254
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Yep.

You could also just buy a SCBA tank and the mask/reg rig for it, but again it exhausts to the atmosphere, so it doesn't do dick for what YOU have getting to others. But it would provide you with clean air.

Well, until it runs out anyway...... While Karen is using it let's duct-tape it on her head so she can't get it off.... smiley

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me

Jeepguy
Posts: 304
Incept: 2020-02-07

Ohio
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Yeah I don't buy anything the Government says either, let's review shall we?::::

No matter who's been president for over a decade they always claim unemployment is low, they fudge the numbers! They even changed the formula used to calculate unemployment!

They have tons of accounting "errors" like that humm 4 billion dollars
(some say more) that went missing out of the pentagon!

Hell our local Governments blow money and lie about all the time!!

Bottom line is why would you believe anything that those who lie to you and cheat you daily have to say?

**** their fake numbers!!

Nomullet
Posts: 7791
Incept: 2007-11-11

SW
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Not sure if this is a repost but no longer considered an epidemic....

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/....

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A bad day of programming is better than a good day of management.
Asimov
Posts: 117892
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee
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The problem I see is that anybody who is interested in the science of how they are ineffective are getting lumped in with the people who don't want to wear one "because they make it hard to breath." Or whatever other minor irritant they decide to pick to use as a reason. It's never case studies and actual evidence, it's always some childish whine. Because of that, when it is evidence, they're not going to listen - it's straight rejection.

Most of the people who have the ability to get that message out to large groups parrot that wearing a mask at least reduces the risk, and therefore anybody who doesn't want to wear it is a blazing antisocial, ignorant idiot.

It's a RELIGION.

And, just like when prohibition was enacted, probably less than 10% of the people actually agree.

Yet another lesson unlearned.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Mangymutt
Posts: 1693
Incept: 2015-05-03

Vancouver WA
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Got my first trespass today. I was in Vancouver WA. I tried repeatedly letting the clerks know I have a medical condition that is stated within WA state face mask laws.

I forced the store manager to call the police, he did. When the sheriff arrived I asked him, clearly and directly "What does the law say about medical conditions?" And "When does the law take effect?" He said something to the effect, he doesn't know it is all to confusing right now. I attempted to show him the law, he refused to look at it.

He asked if I was "One of Those" I asked him back "one of those what".... No answer.

Both the sheriff and store manager said they have the right to refuse service to anyone, to which I clearly stated that federal law prohibits being discriminated against do to medical reasons. Then asked why I was being trespassed. To which I was told because I refused to wear a face covering. I once again told them I have a life long medical condition that prevents from wearing one in a safe manner. Neither the sheriff or manager cared.

Sheriff: Whats your address? Me: P.O.Box nnn. Sheriff: I need an address. Me: I don't know it. Sheriff: You don't know your own address. Me: Nope. He put down my P.O. Box.

Long story short I got a trespass and was asked by the sheriff to leave. I did.

Hopefully this opens the door where I can go after both a pre-existing medical condition but more importantly.
Quote:
the Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act (Title 21 USC.)


Went to Bi-Mart, and was given a little hassle, but no big deal. When to Grocery Outlet, the manager questioned me about "Needing" to wear a mask. I changed my game a little and told him I had a pre-existing medical condition that made wearing a mask unsafe. He was ok with it.

That was a little more taxing and tiring than I expected, but we will see where it goes.

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"It's just a shot" - Gates
Karlinmichigan
Posts: 29
Incept: 2020-04-04

Karlin, Michigan
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My son works in a research lab that will remain unnamed. They finally got around to doing fit testing of the N95 masks per the OSHA 1000-49-MC_FitTestProtocol**. The lab hired in a subcontractor to do the tests. The subcontractor used isoamyl acetate (the essential oil of bananas) for the sniffer detection. My son is allergic to bananas. So, 10 o'clock at night we get the call from our son from the emergency room. He had gone to the emergency room later that night for difficulty breathing. They had not warned him what chemical they would be using and he had no idea they would be using banana oil. Fortunately, he's alright. "If the virus don't kill ya, we will!" What buffoons.

** See "Appendix A Section B. 2. Isoamyl Acetate Protocol" in 1000-49-MC_FitTestProtocol
Redjack
Posts: 405
Incept: 2018-01-29

Iowa
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Asimov

It is like the vax and anti vax.

Vaccines have a place, but they are not 100% effective, are not 100% safe, and while they might help you, the lack of a vaccine in my neighbor will not make me automatically sick. Just like having my kids vaccinated won't automatically make them sick.

You can not talk about the actual science of masks anymore than vaccines. No one on any side is listening.
Hobbled
Posts: 39
Incept: 2011-02-09

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@Depression2020 quote "OMG herd immunity won't work, vaccines won't work, we're DOOOMED. Surgically attach face masks and lockdowns to infinity!"

That is my fear here.

While nursing facilities have some excuse there comes a point of futility where loved ones just need a familiar face and voice. Marriages have been held without the loved ones they would want to share that special time with. Folks stuck at home not being able to visit. And perhaps worst of all, people dying alone and afraid without comfort of loved ones. No hospital visit no funeral. And I am sure you all here saw where the American Pediatric Assn. is warning us about the fear and isolation this is having on children. They need socializing they need activity with friends and this is literally changing them. Heard of a friend who has a child who was into sports and other activities with friends and was very outgoing, and now with all this he just stays home and the father is watching his son become another individual before his very eyes. This is dangerous.

I have 2 children in the military and know many others with same. I truly dread the fact that I may not be able to see my boys for years. Shoot from what I can tell the lockdown and subsequent ban on travel in the military is causing young men and women who should be rotating bases or who have come to the end of their enlistment to be stuck indefinitely. I fear I may not see my boys for years because of this idiocy.

To the comment above who said we have bigger problems than masks. I strongly disagree. The mask issue is THE issue. We are being lied to and subjugated to monstrous public policy that is tearing our society apart. The masks are just the outward sign of a bigger problem - that we are being manipulated for someone else's power trip, ego trip whatever. It is separating people from others and from family and loved ones. They have no right, no right I tell you to keep me in a bubble I do not wish to be in. It is dangerous and insulting and flat out un-scientific. If they believe is this crap fine, stay home and order everything on-line, live in your fear. But leave me the heck alone to live without fear because I can think my way out of a wet paper bag.

No this IS important.
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