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2018-05-06 09:24 by Karl Denninger
in 2ndAmendment , 4483 references Ignore this thread
We Have A Congressman Calling For Civil War*
[Comments enabled]

Let's not mince words: Eric Swalwell is advocating for Civil War.

Instead, we should ban possession of military-style semiautomatic assault weapons, we should buy back such weapons from all who choose to abide by the law, and we should criminally prosecute any who choose to defy it by keeping their weapons. The ban would not apply to law enforcement agencies or shooting clubs.


The Parkland teens have taught us there is no right more important than every student’s right to come home after class. The right to live is supreme over any other.

Right here, Mr. Sawlwell is advocating for a civil war -- right now.

He is in fact advocating for millions of murders.

He is claiming as justification exactly the same argument made for keeping slaves -- that some people are superior to others.

Mr. Swalwell claims that the right to live is supreme over any other.

The problem is that without disarming everyone -- including every weapon, and that includes the police, he is declaring that this right only exists for certain people and not others and he intends to murder anyone who disagrees with them.

Let's not mince words: All laws are ultimately backed by homicide.  If you refuse to respect the validity of the law the guns will come out and they will be used on you.  That's homicide and those arguing for laws are in each and every case arguing for homicide.  We thus must debate for each and every law what category that proposed homicide falls into.  I remind you there are several categories of homicide, including:

1. Meritorious (e.g. shooting someone who is raping your daughter)
2. Justifiable (e.g. shooting someone who breaks into your home -- but has not yet attacked you.)
3. Accidental (e.g. you lose control of your vehicle due to black ice on the road, etc.)
4. Negligent (e.g. your car has terribly bald tires and hydroplanes, etc.)
5. Felonious (e.g. you stick up a bank and shoot a teller)

All homicide, in other words, is not equal.  Some is punishable, some is regrettable, some is just bad luck and some is worthy of cheering.  But make no mistake -- all laws are in fact declarations of intent to commit homicide upon those who disagree with them and the category of that homicide must be debated and agreed upon as that intent is inherent in the passage of any law.

The Constitution, however, is not the "10 Suggestions."  It is the supreme law of the land.  It trumps all other laws and cannot be changed by Statute or by judicial fiat.  The 14th Amendment says its protections and divisions of power extend to the State and local level, and denies the States any ability to infringe on its requirements.

The Second Amendment is clear on its face: Shall Not Be Infringed means what it says.  In addition the word militia means what it says too: All adult males physically capable of rendering armed resistance in the event of need who are expected to have their own arms and ammunition.  Go ahead and include the gals if you wish; works for me, but that's not the historical context.  In other words the gals are free to show up and render such resistance but able-bodied men are expected to.  There are exactly two ways to overrule those words: 1) Revolution or secession, at which point the Constitution ceases to exist entirely, all at once (that's the point of either of those events, duh) and 2) Amendment by the process set forth in the Constitution.

That many people will honor a law, ordnance or regulation that is expressly in violation of the Constitution does not obligate anyone else to do so.  That someone in any branch of government claims that the clear words written in said Constitution don't mean what they say does not obligate anyone to agree.  The Constitution is not a debate society; it is a set of facts and a contract between the people and the government.

The people have no obligation to honor a violation of that contract today or tomorrow irrespective of whether they have in the past.

If you wish to read the actual arguments made before the 2nd Amendment was adopted (along with the rest of the Constitution), along with what militia actually means go read both The Federalist and Anti-Federalist.  They set forth in black ink the debate that was held and why the elements of the Constitution exist along with the hierarchy of law that is inherent in this nation's governance.  They're not debatable either; they're historical fact and were in fact the elements of the debate, penned and presented, for the express purpose of making sure nobody could misunderstand their intent, the arguments presented and the outcome.

Now let me point out both why the Second Amendment actually exists and why the ordinary person needs to own not just one but at least two high-capacity, high-accuracy rifles -- like AR-15s.

This first permanent settlement in America is arguably Jamestown, in 1622.  It is now 2018.  That's 396 years.  In that time we have had two serious internal Civil Wars; one of which was successful in its aims (the Revolution) the other not (The Civil War or, if you prefer The War of Northern Aggression.)  That is one incident per 198 years, on average.  In other words there is a 0.51% chance per year of violent civil war or uprising intending to render moot the entire existing government across a material section of the nation's landmass.  May I remind you that America is in fact one of the best large land-masses in  regard to this risk; Continental Europe has had two serious internal wars in the last 100 years, for a per-year risk of 2% or four times ours.  Some parts of Europe have been much worse than that, as has most of the Middle East, South and Central America, Africa and a large part of Asia. We can argue over the reason for that later -- and the 2nd Amendment might be part of it.

0.5% per year is a very low risk, but it's definitely not zero.

An average adult lives to about 80, and is an adult at 18.  He or she is therefore an adult for approximately 62 years.

Now let me ask the question: What risk of calamity do you believe justifies your personal holding of insurance against the risk of your death in the event the bad thing happens?

If you live in a "100 year" flood plain this means on average over very long periods of time it floods once every 100 years.  Your mortgage is for 30 years.  Your mortgage company will require you to buy flood insurance because the cumulative risk of a flood during that 30 years is about 26%.  That is plenty for the bank to require you pay for that insurance -- or they won't write your mortgage.

What is the risk of, for example, contracting cancer during your lifetime?  The answer is about 38.5%.

What is the risk of needing an AR-15 to survive a severe civil conflict (defined as revolution or civil war) during your 62 adult years, given the history of such conflicts on the landmass known today as United States since people of white European-ancestry have been in permanent residence upon same?

The math is simple: 1 - (cumulative odds of NOT having it happen over 62 years), or in arithmetic notation 1 - (0.9949 ^ 62)

Ready for the result?

It's 27.17% -- higher than your house flooding if you live in a 100 year flood plain.

What if we keep taking in immigrants who refuse to assimilate and we become more socialist much as Europe has done over the last several hundred years -- and our risk in fact looks like theirs based on the last 100 years?  What is the risk you will need that AR-15 during your adult lifetime in that case, which I think is a fair argument on the risk we take today given that we refuse to secure our borders and expel those who are here illegally now, never mind taking in "refugees" who are not required to demonstrate their respect for and intent to honor our Constitutional protections?

Sitting down?


That's right -- there is a 71.4% chance that Europe will suffer a war of similarity to WWI and WWII during a person's adult lifetime, based on the two World Wars.  It's not much different odds, incidentally, if you start enumerating all the other wide scale wars (civil and otherwise) on the European Continent all the way back to the time of the Roman Empire!

You are reasonably close in odds to needing that rifle as you to are to getting cancer during your lifetime.  Indeed, it's about 70% as likely.

You're also more likely to need that AR-15 than your home is to flood during a 30 year period if you live in a 100 year flood plain.

Both of those risks are the best-case scenario and require an immediate 100% "about-face" on expelling all illegal immigrants currently here and requiring 100% of those who wish to immigrate legally be verified as to their intentions to respect and honor our Constitution and its requirements.

If we do not get rid of all the illegal invaders in this nation and keep admitting those who have no respect for or intent to follow our Constitution, along with putting people with rank disrespect for same in Congress and our Executive like Maxine Waters, Nancy Pelosi, Eric Swalwell and both Presidents Obama and Trump then it's a fair bet that your odds are not 27.1% but far closer to 70%.

In other words, it's odds-on you're going to need those guns.

If the bad happens while you might need a pistol, a hunting rifle or .22 for secondary defensive or eating purposes your primary weapon requirement is going to be a high-powered rifle like the AR-15.  You will also need a nice-sized stack of high-capacity magazines loaded and ready to go, a case (or more) of ammunition to reload those magazines with and two rifles, because in such a situation you will not be able to get parts or spares for your gun and thus two is one and one is none.

Further, in such a situation just like in every other similar situation over time there will be plenty of people who have nothing EXCEPT said rifle and will attempt to take everything you have from you, using the complete breakdown of ordinary civilization as their excuse, murdering you and your family in the process.  We see myriad examples of this all over the world today, including in Syria right now.  You will either be able to attempt to stop them because you personally posses a high-power rifle and ammunition for it or you will be murdered, anyone who happens to be female will likely be raped first and everything you own will be confiscated or destroyed.

There is utterly nobody who has graduated from High School who should not have been able to within seconds compute these odds and understand both how the math works behind this and why.  That there is any uptake among the people of this country for such an act as confiscation of these weapons from civilians is proof positive that our government has intentionally failed to educate our young people for decades and has intentionally failed for the explicit purpose of making them unable to calculate the odds of such an event and thus understand why it is absolutely critical that these weapons not only be perfectly legal for ordinary people to posses but that their possession and proficiency in their use must be encouraged.

Indeed it is likely that the pre-NFA state of the law prior to the 1930s is why America has a risk of such war or revolution that is one quarter of that of other developed and similar cultures and nations -- specifically, the entirety of Europe, Central and South America, Africa and most of Asia.  That's the vast majority of land-mass on this planet.

But in today's world with people like Eric Swalwell in Congress and our de-facto refusal to demand that any who wish to immigrate to the United States do so only under the expectation and belief that they agree with the Constitution in all respects the risk in the United States of you needing that rifle today is much more-likely to be akin to that of someone who lives in Europe.

You don't need one AR-15, in short.

Every adult in fact needs two or more of them because during your adult life you're odds on to experience the very unfortunate set of events that will require you own and have a working one, right now, or you and all of those who you love will be dead.

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User Info We Have A Congressman Calling For Civil War in forum [Market-Ticker] *
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That clown and most of the "progressive" block of thugs are very okay with slaughtering anyone who doesn't obediently bow to their demands, especially where it comes to ownership of weapons and the 2nd. They weren't very bashful about saying it out loud in public. It wasn't too many weeks ago, there were plenty of people in their AstroTurf rent-a-mobs who were calling for the murder of NRA members. No one will ever be prosecuted or even taken to task for that.

Anyone living in those 99% blue strongholds like Boston, NYC, california, chicago and vermont, etc.....THESE PEOPLE ARE PLANNING TO KILL YOU. You had your big, fat, in your face warnings after the Boston marathon bombings, the BLM riots and the pro gun-confiscation rallies. Anyone sane left there had batter plan on getting out before it finally gets to the point that no one from those places will be welcome in places that are not marxist ****holes.

"I'd like to live just long enough to be there when they cut off your head and stick it on a pike as a warning to the next 10 generations that some favors come with too high of a price." -Vir Cotto Babylon 5
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Archive link, should that page disappear some day soon:


What that idiot doesn't get is that by writing that, he just promoted himself onto the Very Public Supporter of Gun Control list.

Should this man's fevered dreams actually happen, people on that list most likely will find themselves the recipient of extreme displeasure from 300 plus yards away.
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United States
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All that is human must retrograde if it does not advance.
Edward Gibbon

Not to change the subject Karl, related to your
recent video in which you discuss the co-opting
of the Tea Party movement.

The Right (so-called) in America has not chosen
its top 300 quotations and prioritized them in a

Let 30 such lists be created so that a individual
can identify themselves to a stranger by merely
a number.

If a Civil War happens the level of confusion about
intellectual matters and goals, will instantly lead
people to one simple statement: "My group in power
hopefully everywhere."

Two of the simplest quotations could be:

"The Constitution, WITH prosecution."
"Where were YOU when Denninger asked for street protesters?"

B. Guy McMahan

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I own and drill on Daniel Defense chambered in 5.56 and 7.62, but only one of each. I need to get looking, maybe to trade that 7.62 for a copy of the 5.56 and a nice .45.

How did the idea strike that the lifetime probability of being in a shooting war would be X%? I can do the math, but the initial thought has never occurred.
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Retired in NC Mountains
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Excellent ticker. What I find so unreal about this time in our history is that those who understand the purpose of the 2nd and know real US history are considered wackos and those setting the stage for their own destruction are considered the "enlightened ones".

In all of history, no government became more honest, less corrupt, or respected its citizens' rights more as it grew in size. E.L. 2016
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Vancouver, WA
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As the saying goes: Two is one and one is none.

"The Constitution is the IDE. The 2nd Amendment is the debugger."
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over and over again i have heard i should not fear islamic terror because the chances of it happening to me or my loved ones are extremity low.

why don't the VERY SAME people apply this logic to so called "assault" weapons instead of relying on hysterical fear mongering?
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As a foreigner, it seems pretty obvious to me that one of two things is going to happen in America: war, or a miracle. I'm simply shocked that so many Americans can't see this.

And the rest of the West isn't much better off. Here in Canada, for example, Alberta is soon going to realize they have nothing to gain from remaining in a country where east-coast Liberals hate them even though Alberta provides billions of dollars of taxes every year to prop up the failing economies of those liberal provinces.

For decades, the left and right had an uneasy peace, because 'getting along' made everyone more wealthy: we needed left and right to work alongside each other in factories to make the stuff we used. But now manufacturing has mostly been shipped to China or automated, there's little reason to pretend to like each other any more. And decades of seething resentment to clear out.
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Sunshine Tax State
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Guns dont belong in the hands of citizens. PERIOD.

P olice can use them without impunity
E veryone else faces persecution or prosecution
R ights be damned, its a new world
I ndividual liberties take a back seat
O rwellian times are ahead
D emocracy is nothing but a scam

"I'm going to need a hacksaw"----Jack Bauer
"You can get killed walking your doggie!"----Vincent Hanna
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Yeah, you're right, chances are the Second Amendment is going to be needed sometime in the not too distant future.

And even if somebody doesn't necessarily agree with and/or understand your above calculations of probability, I think a lot of people have a "gut feeling" that either they or a future generation is going to have a showdown with the Marxists. I already feel like this country isn't big enough for the Marxists and liberty lovers to coexist.

The USSR collapsed without too much bloodshed, so it would be nice to see the USSA also do the same when the time finally comes. And it's coming. I have no hope whatsoever that a collapse can be averted.. But I do hope that a bloodbath can be somehow avoided.

And that's where the issue of gun ownership becomes counterintuitive to some. Many people don't understand that tens of millions of gunowners can actually avert a Marxist bloodbath without firing a shot. How? Why? Because the Marxists know that they have to first disarm the ignorant masses before they completely take over, unless the Marxists want to suffer a high casualty rate and a possible defeat.

The bottom line is the Marxists want the guns because they don't want to risk getting shot during the next civil war. So keeping the guns means a better chance at keeping the Marxists in their place or putting them in their graves when the time finally arrives.

As an aside: John McCain is soon to be dead and buried (not soon enough for me). He is terminally ill ( and mentally ill) so he's planning his own funeral. It is being reported that John wants Obama to deliver his eulogy and Trump to stay away... Yeah, John really hates Trump.

If we are lucky, the political class will hate each other enough to pull the trigger on each other both figuratively and literally. I want Washington to experience as much infighting and turmoil as possible. This way the collectivists become weaker and less united against The People.
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The South
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This topic of conversation is appearing elsewhere on the Net, too:


His math is a bit different, as is the conclusion....but the implications are exactly the same.

Usually when you see these thoughts pop up at or around the same time, the Universe is trying to tell you something.

Great work, KD.
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Mt Vernon, OH
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I often ask gun control fanatics how many million people they plan on killing to achieve gun control. A civil war was bad enough in the 1860s. A second round in the 202s could easily kill 50 to 100 million when the infrastructure collapses.
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A True American Patriot!
Philly P.a.
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Considering in Connecticut there was less than 10% and likely less than 5% who complied and registered their weapons recently I wouldn't hold much hope of a voluntary turn in. It could get well into double digit percentages people who will say live free or die...

This guy, and people like him are literally worse than Hitler...

Government: A device that allows you to get blind ass drunk and your children die from alcohol poisoning.
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East of Sheol
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Yeah good idea is to have two similar weapons, the proper spare parts, and the simple take down tools. Learn not only to shoot but how to assemble/disassemble that weapon. You never know when something unexpected may occur. Always good to have a few extra arms around for your buddies in a SHTF sceanrio too. Survival is all about effective numbers and tactics. Being able to resume fire is a tactic.

The odds are simple.

Another California gun grabbing Maxist nut - Eric Swal(low)well. Wonder if he can handle 16+" of cold steel. Happy to warm it up if the taste is disagreeable. Evidently ****-for-brains must share a pant load with Maxine Waters. I just looked at his twatter page. There are enough of strawman accusations there to burn down the bay area.

I hate these politicians that spend the times in schools talking to NON-VOTERS. They are simply hiding out from the real voters that might express a negative opinon to them.

Swal(low)well conducting a brain transplant.

"Mass intelligence does not mean intelligent masses."
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There is a part of me that thinks those higher-up in the Left understand that math, and that is precisely why they want to take them away.

(Thanks for explaining the math--I was wondering where it had come from in the Bar...I wasn't thinking clearly, as I do know how to do it...Likely would have written a Monte Carlo and done it the bone-headed way.)
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A True American Patriot!
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Yep -- it's simple statistics.

If there's a 1% chance of something happening then there's a 99% chance of it not.

Just like energy efficiencies (where losses are multiplicative) so are statistical odds.

The odds of a SINGLE coin toss are 50/50, but the odds of TWO heads in a row are 0.5 * 0.5, or 0.25 (25%) ASSUMING YOU HAVE NOT TOSSED THE FIRST COIN YET.

Humans have a very hard time "naturally" with long-odds things OVER TIME. They think that because they live in a "100 year flood plain" that it means the odds are less than 1% they will flood in their lifetime. NOPE. It means there's a 99% chance it WON'T flood THIS YEAR. Over a 30 year mortgage it is 26% likely you will have AT LEAST one flood.

Winding it down.
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Probability...Statistics is used for lying. (j/k..sort of) Here is a question, can we solve analytically the probability of having any given number of revolutions in our 80 year period? I ask because I am curious, and because I kinda want to find out.

Reason: Atrocious grammar
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"But I do hope that a bloodbath can be somehow avoided."

Same here. But I really don't see it.

The problem is, as Karl mentioned a few days ago, that so many people are now unable to do even the most basic of jobs in the free market. And that's particularly true among Obama's Red Guards, whose only skill is being offended.

So even if the left were to suddenly say 'OK, sorry, we didn't mean it, we're going to stop now,' you'd still have a country where there are literally tens of millions of people with zero or negative economic value.

Clearing up the mess the left have created over the last fifty years would require sacking most of those people who do have jobs, particularly the ones in government and academia. And then what?

Unless the remaining workers can be convinced to pay them forever for doing nothing, either they starve, they steal, or you build a wall around Detroit and toss them in there for a 'fight or die' reality TV show.
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A True American Patriot!
Philly P.a.
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I think today's politicians understand the math and won't actually pull the trigger. What happens if there's a law that requires turning in guns and only a single digit percentage of expected guns come in? You're going to have to go get the 90+% and a good amount of them will not only shoot back, but have prepared to shoot back...

That **** gets out of hand and a lot of LEO's and military will refuse. For a multitude of reasons.

Do you really want to show the world how little power you really have when you push too far?

Now... The idiots of tomorrow... Don't have much hope there.

Government: A device that allows you to get blind ass drunk and your children die from alcohol poisoning.
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Nope, I had never run that math before. Sobering. I can't find fault with it.

Except this: Each household needs at least one shotgun and at least one pistol too.
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"The Constitution is not a debate society; it is a set of facts and a contract between the people and the government."

The only parties in the contract (compact) are the States!

Our States created our federal government through the contract, compact, our Constitution. Most States came in later under the equal footing doctrine.

Our federal government is supposed to be a very limited tool (enumerated powers) to serve Our States and us.
... shall not be infringed." can Never be changed (even by Article 5) because self-preservation IS a "self-evident" truth!

Government only works for the benefit of the people when it is conducted in the full light of day. -- Karl Denninger
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"A second round [civil war] in the 202s could easily kill 50 to 100 million when the infrastructure collapses."

Yes. That fact has escaped the notice of tens of millions of gun owners. Even the majority of NRA members fail to invision what a civil war would actually look like. Civil war means no electricity, supply lines cut and roadways impassable -- especially if guys I know of are the ones who are fighting the next civil war.

Let me state the facts plainly: Owning 20 AK-47s and 20,000 rounds won't do you or your friends and family one damn bit of good if you only have a few days supply of food and water when a civil war breaks out.

Unless you, my fellow gunowners, plan to use your guns to kill people and take their resources I'd suggest you sockpile and cache some essential provisions right beside your ammo box...
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WRT "needing 2 AR pattern rifles", I say this.

Your loving and benevolent government, as well as, several NATO allies have adopted as standard, the Eugene Stoner design platform. It is ubiquitous in LE, civilian and military organizations. If things get dirty (I can't imagine a "clean" CW), there will be plenty of arms available for the taking. Many, never fired and only dropped once. <Looks directly at BCSO>. This is to say nothing, of magazines, ammunition, optics, etc.

We have watched for decades the effectiveness of 4wd trucks with armed men in the beds, or mounted weapons. Now where would you find MILLIONS of 4wd trucks in the hands of the population? Hmmm.....

"Winter is coming." -Motto of House Stark
"Don't coast through life. Grab it by the hair and **** it half to death." - Jotapay
"Strong people are harder to kill than weak people, and more useful in general" - Mark Rippetoe
"Its like Calvinball."-MarvinMartian
Posts: 434
Incept: 2017-06-27

The People's Republic of New York
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having firearms and being able to use them is necessary but not sufficient. one must be a part of a group, preferably a community, that shares common values and a willingness to fight together. it does not matter what you have or your skill set; alone you are for the most part postponing the inevitable if there is a long term sustained breakdown of order.

and i would respectfully add that you should be good at making other types of killing devices and situations and be comfortable with using them. you must also be willing to kill those outside of your group as the more functional your group is, the more that it will attract the desperate. if this scenario unfolds, your ability to do things and live with them will be tested.

There are two ways to be rich: One is by acquiring much, and the other is by desiring little.
snow, seasons, distance and dirt roads: SSDD
"Be not deceived; God is not mocked; for whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap" (Gal. 6:7)
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