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2024-10-13 08:53 by Karl Denninger
in Technology , 226 references
[Comments enabled]  

Obviously the market doesn't believe Musk's BS on robots -- with cars or anything else.

If it did the stock wouldn't have taken a nearly 10% ditch-dive the morning after.  But it did, so there you are.

Just observe any of these alleged "all-AI" things for a while and you can determine if its really what is being claimed: Watch and listen very carefully to see if you can detect anything "out of scope."  If you can there's a human involved and the "demonstration" is a cheat.

If not then perhaps what you're seeing is authentic.  Now, given you determine it might be, figure out if there is anything particularly revolutionary and awesome with what you just witnessed.

So we see "robotaxi", for example.  Except -- its moving at a literal crawl where a human taxi would arrive at a normal approach speed to wherever it is going, load or discharge the person(s) paying for the ride, and be on its way.  It would look like an ordinary vehicle doing ordinary things, because it is -- with a human driving it.

Does the so-called "robotaxi" operate that way?  If it doesn't then whether its human-aided or not is immaterial because it will not be able to operate in concordance with humans, and since humans are the reason it exists in the first place it is once again a nice novelty but cannot and will not replace human-operated vehicles.

I've yet to see any of the so-called "demonstrations" (including Waymo) meet that standard -- nor get particularly close to it.  Yet that is the standard.

Can you program a robot to dispense a beer?  Sure.  You've been able to do that for decades now.  Load clean glasses into the machine, push a button, out comes a beer.  Now add voice recognition instead of a touch screen and, with confirmation that it heard you correctly, you have a robot that dispenses beer.  Ditto for cocktails with a defined set of mixes.  Not hard.

Is that all a bartender is?  Really?  Beyond novelty will you pay anything more for a drink that way than one in your house?

Can the rest of what a bartender is be provided by a robot? 

I've yet to see any evidence of it yet the places I will go back to and order a drink a second time all have more than a robot driving that second visit.  It is the experience of the place, including the people who work there, that result in the second visit.

Robots can do robotic things.  I have a robotic vacuum.  Is it as good as a human one?  No, but its 80% of the job (Sarah bought it for me as a gift.)  Do I think its worth the money?  Not at full price, but she didn't pay full price.  If it broke would I buy another one provided I couldn't fix it?  Again, not at full price -- because while it isn't bad it isn't as good as a human with a stick or cannister vacuum and it cannot replace my need to buy one of those because there are places I want to vacuum it cannot go and do, so I need the other appliance anyway.

Again my test for robotic transportation is that I have to be able to get into the back seat with a pillow, a sixpack in a cooler and punch in a destination 500+ miles away and other than refueling it I can drink, sleep or whatever I want to do.  Further, other than for theft/comprehensive coverage I am not legally or otherwise responsible (e.g. I don't need to buy insurance and I can be drunk or stoned out my mind in the back seat -- entirely legally) and if it wrecks I am 100% made whole 100% of the time with another one of the same because I was not operating it -- the robot was.

Would I accept such in an EV?  No, irrespective of anything else, because it cannot charge quickly enough or go far enough to make that 500+ mile trip without enough stopped time to charge that renders that model worthless to me.  But would such a vehicle in gasoline be one I'd buy?  Yes, at a reasonable price -- but with some conditions, one of which is that all the intelligence is onboard and it does not constantly transmit to anyone where it is and where its going.

Why?  Because its my transportation and where I happen to be is at my discretion -- not some other entity that can decided "oh no, that's unacceptable for some reason and guess what -- you're blocked!"  Which, if the vehicle has no human controls, means I'm quite-literally imprisoned.

Has anyone demonstrated anything even somewhat-approximating this?

No.

Yet that is what you must achieve to disrupt anything: Better, faster, cheaper -- you have to do at least two of the three and the third can be no worse.

And guess what?  The market isn't buying what Musk is selling either.

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