The Market Ticker
Commentary on The Capital Markets
Logging in or registering will improve your experience here
Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.


The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be sent unmodified to lawmakers via print or electronic means or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media, to republish full articles, or for any commercial use (which includes any site where advertising is displayed.)

Submissions or tips on matters of economic or political interest may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Considering sending spam? Read this first.

2021-03-24 11:15 by Karl Denninger
in Interviews , 136 references
[Comments enabled]  

View this entry with comments (opens new window)

2021-03-23 10:11 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 391 references
[Comments enabled]  

We knew this in March and April of last year...

Coronavirus researchers are looking at fighting fire with fire.

A new study published Tuesday in Journal of Infectious Diseases suggests that the human rhinovirus, otherwise known as the “common cold,” helps block SARS-

A "new study" eh?

Early last year I found a study where researchers looking for cross-reaction with survivors of SARS found a huge percentage, roughly 30-50% of the population in several areas they looked, had no SARS exposure but were cross-reactive against Covid-19.

In other words their immune system already knew what it was and how to attack it.  At worst those people would get a mild infection, if they could get infected at all.

I've raised hell about this immediately because it meant all the screaming about there being no resistance was a lie.  Yet exactly nobody paid any attention to that scientific work.  The lie of complete susceptibility by everyone in the population was complete crap.

We didn't know what virus was responsible for the cross-reactivity.... but now, a year later, it appears it's not even in the coronavirus family.

Why did the case rate drop this winter?  No vaccines had gone in arms yet but indeed it did.  Answer: 30-50% of the population in a given area had the virus and another 30% or so were already resistant.  As I pointed out the math is simply that it ran out of people to infect.

Ready to tell the government to Go To Hell yet folks?

Why are you putting up with any of their bull**** at this point?

All the mandates, the mask orders, the lockdowns and even the vaccines did nothing.


View this entry with comments (opens new window)

2021-03-22 10:15 by Karl Denninger
in Housing , 321 references
[Comments enabled]  

CNBS, all the BS that's fit to scream about, says housing sales fell sharply in February as supply dropped by the largest amount on record.

No kidding?  Look at lumber prices lately?

Yes, I know, those are existing home sales, but still....

I could have told you this months ago and have, but nobody wanted to hear it.  In fact it was one of the things I pointed out back a year when we did the Covidiot Dance with lockdowns; we were going to break things that were not expected.  Well, we did.  Then we handed out "Stimmy Bux" to every idiot in the country to try to "compensate" for being stupid and what we got was a runaway dislocation in several things, including lumber prices.

Gasoline has gone insane in terms of price as well; may I remind you that it has basically doubled in the last few months?  It's pushing $3/gal right now in Florida and not much cheaper in TN; Florida along with several other states dropped a deuce on drivers during the low prices and increased gas taxes, thinking "oh, nobody will notice."  Well how's that working out now?

"Sellers market" doesn't even begin to describe what the current conditions look like, but sellers market is a misnomer unless you're planning on being dead, since you have to live somewhere.  So how's that working out for you?

Take a bow, Covidiots.  Yes, all of you out there who are still playing Reeeing Karen; you did this, you wanted it and you put up with it so suck it up buttercup.  Those wee little direct deposits you all blew on weed and beer weren't free; they never are.

View this entry with comments (opens new window)

2021-03-21 07:35 by Karl Denninger
in Podcasts , 369 references
[Comments enabled]  

We keep talking about all manner of things with Covid-19, but the question nobody wants to ask is the most important one:  WHY?

View this entry with comments (opens new window)

2021-03-20 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors , 393 references
[Comments enabled]  

It's all freeeeeeeeeeeee!

If you believe that I have a bridge for sale.  It's a very nice bridge.

Let's consider another thing -- the idea that so-called "digital assets" will be the future.  Really?

Why don't you buy loaves of bread with shares of GME?

You do understand why, right?

For something to be considered a currency it must be usable as a medium of exchange and stable enough in value for both parties to do so with a reasonable degree of confidence.

In other words I sell you a loaf of bread in exchange for Zulaks then for a Zulak to be a currency I must be able to reasonably expect that tomorrow, when I go to buy more flour, sugar, baking soda, salt and yeast to make the next loaf of bread for the next customer, and pay the power bill to run the oven and lights in the store that the value of a Zulak to all the other individuals and firms will be stable enough during that time so my transaction with you is economically reasonable.

I don't buy and sell gasoline in GME stock because that is violated on a routine basis.  Ditto for BTC, Gold, Silver and barrels of oil.  Note that other than the BTC all are physical things too, yet that doesn't matter; they have no intrinsic value as they are.

That is, while I can refine oil to turn it into a usable fuel to heat my house as it comes out of the ground it cannot be used that way.

People think "inflation" is necessarily destabilizing.  Not at first -- only over time.

Very high inflation, ala Weimar Republic style, on the other hand, inevitably destroys the social fabric and ultimately the government.


Because the person baking the bread has no reason to believe they can get the materials to make the next loaf with what they have from selling the previous one.  When you can no longer reasonably source the inputs to make the output with what you sold the output for there is no next output.

Why does nobody transact in BTC and leave it in BTC, but instead translates it immediately to dollars?  Same reason.

Claiming that BTC is a "currency" is fraud for this reason.  Deutsche Marks ceased to be currency when this happened at Weimar and the result was the destruction of productive capacity and ultimately both society and the government.  It was in that vacuum that Hitler came to power.

Venezuela and Argentina underwent a similar circumstance if somewhat less-dramatic, but with similar outcome.  Remember that Argentina was once the 10th wealthiest nation in the world per-capita yet today is considered a third-world nation and is ranked 69th.

Had it still held 10th place it's per-capita GDP would be roughly five times what it is.  That's right -- the nation has lost, on a comparative basis, 80% of its productive output and it did so by emitting ridiculous amounts of credit in place of production exactly as is the United States today in the same puerile attempt to prop up stupid government and social decisions.

It is never different this time folks and you should carefully consider what your standard of living here in the US would look like if four things of every five you have, whether they be kilowatts of electricity, gallons of gasoline or loaves of bread was not in your possession yet you were attempting to work just as hard as you are today.

Yes, it can happen here, if we don't cut this crap out it will, and no, the stock market, gold and BTC will not save you.

View this entry with comments (opens new window)