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If you're one of these folks...


you got dealt a serious blow to your claims that we're being "environmentally poisoned" recently.

But you didn't hear this reported in the media.  In fact, I missed it too -- until this evening, even though the results were published back in the winter of 2014.

If you remember my essay a couple of weeks ago I noted that the slow, steady increase in disorders such as autism, asthma, Type I diabetes and similar was utterly inconsistent with environmental poisoning.  Specifically, we've not only done a lot to clean up the environment over the last 30-40 years (which should lead to a decrease in such conditions) we've also removed a huge number of chemical and other agents from our environment that the moonbats claimed caused these ailments.  But the incidence kept rising.

Now it is certainly true that there remain environmentally troublesome materials out there.  But again, to "get you" it has to, well, get you -- or at worst, get at you through your mother while she's carrying you.

The other explanation is that it's genetic, and our technological improvements in society allow people who would not be able to reproduce to do so in more cases than was previously true.  If this is the case then the more technological advancement we make the more survivable a condition becomes, and thus the more-likely the genetic coding for it will be passed on.  This in turn means that there will be a material and continuing increase in the incidence of such conditions.

That happens to match observations.

Now that doesn't mean I'm right.  But it is an explanation that happens to fit the facts -- unlike the moonbat nonsense which posits something that doesn't fit the facts.

To that we now add this:

In collaboration with Dr. Stephen Scherer, senior scientist and director of The Centre for Applied Genomics at SickKids and the University of Toronto McLaughlin Centre, Frey's team compared mutations discovered in the whole genome sequences of children with autism, but not in controls. Following the traditional approach of studying protein-coding regions, they found no differences. However, when they used their deep learning system to rank mutations according to how much they change splicing, surprising patterns appeared.

It gets better, if you read the abstract of the actual paper:

Autism has been associated with disrupted splicing in brain regions, so we used our method to score variants detected using whole-genome sequencing data from individuals with and without autism. Genes with high-scoring variants include many that have previously been linked with autism, as well as new genes with known neurodevelopmental phenotypes. Most of the high-scoring variants are intronic and cannot be detected by exome analysis techniques.

When we scored clinical variants in spinal muscular atrophy and colorectal cancer genes, up to 94% of variants found to alter splicing using minigene reporters were correctly classified.


How do you get there from environmental factors?  You can't.  While environmental factors may have "turned on" expression of given genome factors they had to be present in the first place which means you were born with them.


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2015-09-23 09:15 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 321 references

And here we go...

The FBI has recovered personal and work-related e-mails from the private computer server used by Hillary Clinton during her time as secretary of state, according to a person familiar with the investigation.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation’s success at salvaging personal e-mails that Clinton said had been deleted raises the possibility that the Democratic presidential candidate’s correspondence eventually could become public. The disclosure of such e-mails would likely fan the controversy over Clinton’s use of a private e-mail system for official business.

There are two problems with this.  The first is the obvious one: Hillary may be cooked.

But the second is far more-serious.  If there was classified data on that server (and it appears there was) then the destruction procedures mandated for such devices were not followed.  It therefore has to be assumed that said data has been compromised.

How serious is this?  We don't know.  But it's very serious for "ordinary people" who do something like this -- you can face prosecution for it and will almost-certainly be stripped of your security clearance -- which would make for an interesting conundrum should she win as President, eh?

It's complicated by the fact that I don't believe there is anything that can be done should someone who would ordinarily be incapable of holding a clearance win the office.  By definition the President has to have access to Top Secret material; what do we do if someone who can't be trusted to keep it secret, as demonstrated by their own prior actions, wins such an election?

We may as well ship all our secrets direct to both China and Putin, eh?  Nice...

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No, it's not their economy.

That's coming.  It's coming with certainty, because the EU refuses to put a stop to so-called "migrants" that are coming because of the social handouts that are available in EU nations to anyone who can manage to get in and stay.

This is really no different than what we have happening here in the United States with our welfare policies and open borders, with one exception: Those migrants are almost all Muslims, and a material percentage of them are probably radical, violent Muslims.

We begin here with a bit of the violence part:

When a rubber dinghy carrying around 100 African refugees across the Mediterranean began to sink, a Nigerian Christian prayed for his life in an innocent act that would end in the deaths of 12 fellow migrants.

One of the Muslims on board the rickety craft ordered him to stop, saying: 'Here, we only pray to Allah.' 

When he refused, a violent fight ensued and 12 Christians drowned when they were thrown overboard by the Muslim refugees.

Got it?  12 Christians were murdered for praying.  On a sinking raft.  A raft full of Muslims.  The Great Religion of Pieces strikes again.

But that's just what you see on the surface (although it ought to be enough!)  Oh no, it gets better.  A large percentage of these so-called "refugees" aren't refugees at all; they're not fleeing a war.  They're coming to take advantage of economic conditions and to import Sharia, beginning with their plural marriages which they are exploiting to gain even more social benefits (and make more Muslims.)

Now if everyone involved was coming to pay taxes it might be ok.  But they're not.  They're explicitly coming to do an effective terraforming operation on the EU in the political, social benefit and legal realm.

We're not talking about a small number either -- in Germany projections are (at current run rates) that this will amount to 800,000 people -- and that's before the chain migration starts from those they pull once they're in Germany.

Why would Merkel sit for this?  Maybe it's because she knows Germany has a collapsing birth rate and the ponzi scheme of ever-more leverage and debt fails when there is nobody to saddle it with in the next generation.  The problem is that what she's importing is not pliable serfs like we have here in the United States but a coherent body of people who may well turn around and decide they're not going to take the yoke.

It's not limited to Germany either; the same is playing out across the entire Middle East.

You're seeing a fundamental transformation all right -- a fundamentalist transformation, I suspect, and by the time we wake up to it we're likely to find that it's too late.

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How many times have you seen someone running a meme on some web page -- or social media -- about autism, asthma, Type I diabetes or other similar nasty maladies and their alleged increased rate in the population?

Then the "suspect list" is trotted out -- GMO foods, Round Up (glypohsate), BPA, vaccines and similar.

Of course there's no scientific evidence linking these things.  There doesn't have to be; there's correlation and that's enough for the screamers.  They come up with all sorts of imagined linkages; some plausible, some not, but none proved.

Before I go further may I remind you that there is a 100% correlation between people who drink water and those that die....

So why doesn't anyone look at an obvious association and try to run that down?

What is the common factor in virtually all of these maladies -- particularly those that strike in the first 20 years of a person's life?

Without modern medicine and technology none, or virtually none, of those afflicted with these conditions would reproduce.

Occam's Razor says that given two or more hypothesis for a given phenomena the simplest explanation is likely to be correct.  Well folks, this is the simplest explanation -- we have made survival and procreation possible for those individuals who, prior to the advancement of technology, had a zero statistical probability of passing on their specific genetic line.

Natural selection, in short, is a bastard -- but a very efficient bastard.  If you carry the genetic predisposition to asthma without modern medicine your first severe attack is probably your last, and that attack almost-certainly will happen before you reach sexual maturity.  Likewise for severe autism; if you're unable to function without perpetual assistance without modern society you are unlikely to survive long enough to reproduce.  If you have Type I diabetes prior to the isolation of insulin so you could inject it to replace that which your body could not produce you were dead.  Those afflicted with severe mental illness, such as schizophrenia (which usually manifests into one's 20s) were originally unlikely to live very long -- and then later we institutionalized them, making their reproductive odds effectively nil.

Simply put our advances in technology (and, in the case of severe mental disorders, social policy changes) have made possible not only the survival of people with these afflictions but enabled them to reproduce and thus, to the extent there is a genetic link to susceptibility of that disease or disorder the trait is passed on and due to the mathematical facts of exponents it is propagated at a rate higher than would occur if each instance was a separate and distinct genetic accident.  In other words but for that condition being survivable it becomes much less likely to be present in a particular person than it would be otherwise, simply by natural selective factors.

In short the bottom line is this: Natural selection "works" because most genetic "abnormalities" (that is, differences compared against the baseline) detract from one's likeliness to succeed in reproduction.  Indeed this is true for virtually all such "abnormalities"; very few are advantageous!

Is the rise in occurrences such as asthma, autism, Type I diabetes and similar due to this simple fact?

At the start of the 20th century, childhood diabetes was rare and rapidly fatal. By its end, some 3–4 children per 1,000 in Western countries would require insulin treatment by the age of 20 years, and a steady rise in incidence had been reported from many other parts of the world.

Is it really hard to figure this out?  Those who contracted the disease did not pass on their genetic line.  How much more complicated does it have to get than that?

So what do we do about it?  Nothing, other than continue to advance technologically, and as we do so the number of "abnormal" conditions that were immediate death sentences that lose their immediate mortality penalty will continue to expand.

Do feel free to celebrate if you'd like -- that we, through our superior brainpower and application of same in the form of improved technological advancement, have made it possible for people to live successful lives and pass on their lineage despite what would be, absent that technology, certain and early death.  In other words while we can't do it all the time we really have learned how to, in a significant number of cases, cheat death.

And while you're at it cut the crap about the boogieman whether claimed to be in vaccines or other similar nonsense, because in point of fact the most-likely explanation for why this kid has asthma or that one is severely autistic is found in the fact that over time those traits ceased being an immediate and certain death sentence prior to the ability to reproduce for anyone who was unlucky enough to both be susceptible to that malady in their genetic code, and had it trigger on them in their youth -- and thus their parent(s), that is you, lived long enough to give birth to them.

Now tell me again why, when our development of technological improvement allows us certain members of our population to cheat what would otherwise be certain death that this is a bad thing -- and why we should blame our success on the tools of that technology....

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