The Market Ticker
Commentary on The Capital Markets- Category [Musings]
2014-06-29 08:00 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 222 references
 

The "company town" is not exactly a new idea.  But if you read the title of this piece perhaps you will see the irony of it in good time....

For Jerry Conkle, life in America’s fastest-growing metropolitan area moves as slowly as the golf carts that meander through his palm-lined neighborhood at dusk. Most days, he wakes early, reads the newspaper, and then hops into his four-wheeled buggy for a 20-mile-per-hour ride to one of the 42 golf courses that surround his home.

“It’s like an adult Disney World,” Conkle, 77, said of The Villages, Florida, whose expansion has come with virtually no crime, traffic, pollution -- or children.

Yes, The Villages is a nice retirement community.  And a damn big one too, encompassing some 110,000 people.  It's a voting block in its own right and attracts politicians for that very reason every election season to pander to older people and promise to steal from everyone else and give it to them.

There is a problem with the "growth" premise however, that The Villages relies on -- it's ending.

There's a second problem -- cost.

Oh not today, to be sure.  Today that looks good.  But what happens when those older people get even older still, and require services.  Services that they can't have in their own homes there?

Hmmm... it would appear that this would be ok only so long as there are more and more old people.  And there will be, for a while.  I'm on the tail end of the "Boomers", but I will surely die one day, and if I live to an age old enough that I can clear rooms with a single toot I'll probably be one of the latest ones to go.

But on the back side of this, and probably before I meet my God, the crest of the hill will have passed under these developers.  Not that they will care, given their age; odds are they'll long be eaten by worms.

If you were one of the people who got involved in this thing early, you'll be dead before any of this will matter.  If you choose to get involved now, you might be ok -- maybe.  But if you're like me, and figure in another 10 years or so this will look attractive, there's a pretty good chance you'll be buying right on the top of the hill - or worse, after the descent has started, but you just haven't noticed it yet.

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