The Market Ticker
Commentary on The Capital Markets- Category [Macro Factors]
2015-07-27 08:31 by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors , 142 references

From the Census Bureau....

New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $7.7 billion or 3.4 percent to $235.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, followed a 2.1 percent May decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.8 percent.

Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $6.4 billion or 8.9 percent to $78.4 billion.

The internals are about as expected; whether this is a relief snapback for a month after the two months of bad numbers is an unknown; the "all other" category, which is very broad was up 0.4% as well.

There's not much to say on this one other than let's see what next month looks like.

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2015-07-14 07:39 by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors , 282 references

Oh oh.....

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $442.0 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, but up 1.4 percent (±0.9%) above June 2014. Total sales for the April 2015 through June 2015 period were up 1.7 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The April 2015 to May 2015 percent change was revised from +1.2 percent (±0.5%) to +1.0 percent (±0.3%).


Let's have a look inside.

Again, these are all unadjusted numbers; you know my view on so-called "seasonal adjustments."

Down were some serious categories -- among them were motor vehicles, grocery stores, furniture, building supplies and personal care.  Gasoline was up month-over-month, probably due to price increases.  Clothing was down materially while general merchandise stores were off more than 4% while restaurants and bars were off nearly 7%.

People can't even afford to get drunk in the bar any more.

(As an aside I don't know if you've seen it but I've been getting a lot of 15 and 20% off spam coupons from places like Bonefish; they're hurting and they know it.)

This report is a flat-out disaster.

The Fed and federal government are both in a box; debt expansion is now, as I have pointed out, decreasing economic output instead of increasing it.

We either cut this crap out now or we're going to go "over-center" into an exponentially-deteriorating pattern.

We are out of margin folks; what I have been warning about as the inevitable mathematical outcome of Congressional and Fed policy decisions is now increasingly evident in the economic results.

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