The Market Ticker
Commentary on The Capital Markets- Category [Macro Factors]

Is there anything really in here?

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $444.5 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, and 4.1 percent (±0.9%) above October 2013. Total sales for the August through October 2014 period were up 4.5 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The August to September 2014 percent change was unrevised from -0.3% (±0.2%).

Except.... last month was a disaster.

Look at the unadjusted numbers; they are pretty-much back to where they were two months ago.

There are two points to this -- last month was an anomaly and between the two months the economy has pretty-much flat-lined, despite the large decrease in gas prices.

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New orders for manufactured durable goods in September decreased $3.2 billion or 1.3 percent to $241.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two consecutive months, followed an 18.3 percent August decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.5 percent.

Transportation equipment, also down two consecutive months, led the decrease, $2.8 billion or 3.7 percent to $73.4 billion.


And if you've read me for a while you know that one of my key indicators is communications and computer products in this report.  The latter, in particular, has now notched three months of cumulative declines in both shipments and new orders along with being negative on an annualized basis -- this is a hiring recession warning.

Ignore this at your peril.

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2014-10-22 07:39 by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors , 151 references

CPI came in at 0.1%, both core and headline.

Food was up 0.3% but energy was down large, -0.7%, offsetting it.

The stunners in the food area are whole meats; specifically beef and pork -- and especially beef, which is up nearly 20% on an annual basis.  Pork is up 11.4%, held down by chops.  I don't believe the bacon number, by the way -- it sure as hell is up more than 3.8% in my experience over the last year (closer to the 20% for "other" pork products.)

In fact regular fresh food products of the animal sort are all up big; fish (6%), dairy (4.9%), eggs (8.5%), etc.

Wanna eat low carb?  It's gonna cost you!

As for those who think deflation sucks, please explain in the context of televisions and computers, both of which continue their relentless and decades-long deflationary price trends.

Hourly earnings were down 0.2%, offset by an increase in working hours of one tenth to 34.6.  Work harder and get paid less, slave!

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