The Market Ticker
Commentary on The Capital Markets- Category [Macro Factors]
2014-10-22 07:39 by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors , 148 references

CPI came in at 0.1%, both core and headline.

Food was up 0.3% but energy was down large, -0.7%, offsetting it.

The stunners in the food area are whole meats; specifically beef and pork -- and especially beef, which is up nearly 20% on an annual basis.  Pork is up 11.4%, held down by chops.  I don't believe the bacon number, by the way -- it sure as hell is up more than 3.8% in my experience over the last year (closer to the 20% for "other" pork products.)

In fact regular fresh food products of the animal sort are all up big; fish (6%), dairy (4.9%), eggs (8.5%), etc.

Wanna eat low carb?  It's gonna cost you!

As for those who think deflation sucks, please explain in the context of televisions and computers, both of which continue their relentless and decades-long deflationary price trends.

Hourly earnings were down 0.2%, offset by an increase in working hours of one tenth to 34.6.  Work harder and get paid less, slave!

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From the Census (we make 'em up as we go along) Bureau:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $442.7 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, but 4.3 percent (±0.9%) above September 2013. Total sales for the July through September 2014 period were up 4.5 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The July to August 2014 percent change was unrevised from 0.6% (±0.2%).

So that report is nasty, down everywhere an unadjusted basis.  The only metric that was "slighty" ok was electronic stores, which were only down a bit -- but they were still down.

As you know I trust the so-called seasonal adjustments as far as I can throw them -- so I use the unadjusted numbers.  There is simply no joy to be found there, with auto sales being (as reported) a large decrease -- in fact, a near-collapse move.

I'm sure someone will point to the decrease in gasoline as a good thing, since the price has fallen so much.  But I'd like to point something out to the mouth-breathers on CNBC and elsewhere in this regard: They always say that falling gas prices wind up being spent somewhere else -- that is, when gas prices (and thus sales) fall, there is an increase in other categories to make up for it, as it is effectively a tax decrease.

Ok, where is it?

I do have a prediction for next month: Drinking establishments will show an increase. smiley

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