The Market Ticker
Commentary on The Capital Markets- Category [Macro Factors]

Oh really?

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $439.9 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent (±0.5)* from the previous month, and 4.3 percent (±0.9) above June 2013. Total sales for the April through June 2014 period were up 4.5 percent (±0.7) from the same period a year ago. The April to May 2014 percent change was revised from +0.3 percent (±0.5)* to +0.5 percent (±0.2). 

Oh really?  Can you find any increase in the below?

When all you have to do to lie is claim "seasonal adjustment" everything you want to print becomes easy.

Just sayin'......

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Heh heh heh....

The game is afoot.

Remember all the prattle about zero interest rates and QE, and how it was "boosting" the economy?

Well how come it hasn't, and how come it isn't?

Maybe you can explain why in the last quarter for which we have data the net economic impact including QE, which totaled about $250 billion during that time, was a negative $500 billion.

Note that the $250 billion was effectively "added debt"; without it there's no way to know if the borrowing would have happened at all.

Also note the right side of that graph.

QE1 (Dec 08 to March 10) correlated with a NEGATIVE delta in GDP.  While it could probably be defended as an attempt to arrest the negative delta in debt accumulation that negative delta in fact was all in financial products, which was both necessary and desirable (for everyone except the big banks!)

QE2 (Nov 10 to June 11) failed to raise the GDP gross run rate (red line) 

BETWEEN QE2 and QE3 gross GDP advanced.  When QE3 began and progressed (Jan 1st 2013 to now, roughly) it declined.

However, indebtedness increased, so the net-net GDP in fact decreased.

The Fed has maintained repeatedly that QE "helps the economy."  The facts say it does no such thing; gross economic output trends downward to flat when QE has been in process, and net-net economic progress is negative.

They lied.

What QE did was boost asset prices -- but not economic activity.

In other words QE was nothing more than intentionally blowing a bubble by widening the band between economic output and debt accumulation.

These are facts, not opinions -- and match my original prediction that in terms of actual economic activity QE was incapable of having the claimed and desired outcome.

Unless the "desired outcome" was blowing yet another bubble in financial markets.

There aren't any pins floating around these days...... right?


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