The Market Ticker
Commentary on The Capital Markets- Category [Foreign Policy]

There seems to be this thought going around that we can somehow "make nice-nice" with North Korea in some way, and that there is a clean way out.  Nope.

Remember the Norks' core "demand" -- they must have national security from "bad people", which includes the United States of course.

This has led people to believe we could come up with something similar to the Hong Kong "deal" where we offer them a "100 year security agreement" which is signed with China, Russia and South Korea, along with the US.

The problem is that such an agreement is that it is predicated on the idea of an eventual Korean unification since North Korea has to get something to give up their nuclear weapons program.

In other words, in seeking a win:win you need to put something on the table that's not a cudgel.

We can't get there because the Chinese fear a unified Korea more than they fear a nuclear North!

This makes putting that option on the table impossible; China will never agree to it.

Those who put forward paths have to take into account the geopolitical realities among the players.  One of the big ones in this case is the abject fear the Chinese have of any unified force that borders them.  This is why they're so "on" about us selling arms to Taiwan (no matter what sort of arms they areand it's why you can't put forward any sort of offer that includes a premise of unification of the Korean peninsula -- China will never agree to it.

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