The Market Ticker
Commentary on The Capital Markets- Category [Employment]

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 214,000 in October, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in food services and drinking places, retail trade, and health care.

On the household survey the employed figure rose a stunning 995,000!  Half of this came from "not in labor force" shrinking by 500,000 people -- a large change.

Nice spike.  Annualized it's huge; it's not out-of-range on the monthly basis, but this is an outlying month compared against last year, and it shows in that nice fat spike.

And, as you can see, the NILF change rate is right there.  Note, however, that it is still not below zero on an annualized basis.

Heh look -- air!

There is starting to look a bit better... not great, but better.

Internally there are some interesting figures. Chief among them is that the employment:population ratio for young workers, 16-19, rose substantially -- up by nearly two full points to 34.2% from 32.5%. The sad part is that these jobs are almost all McJobs, but the improvement is real. Of the 995,000 jobs added, however, 316,000 of them were among the 16-19 year age group. This is a very large change and ridiculously over-represented.

The household survey is much stronger than the "official figures"; whether people will pick anything up on the market with this is unknown, but it damn well ought to be.  

I wonder if The Fed is going to pay attention to that -- they may have to if this continues, assuming it's real.

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