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2018-05-04 09:08 by Karl Denninger
in Employment , 133 references
[Comments enabled]  

Meh....

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 164,000 in April, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, health care, and mining.

Oh look, the media is saying Goldilocks again....

Horsecrap.

Let's look inside.

The unadjusted household numbers (the only ones I care about) say that the economy added 471,000 jobs last month, and on a 12-month rolling basis 2.086 million.  Adjusted for the working-age population the ads were 296,000.

 

Here's the problem with all the  "rosy" garbage:

 

That's the 12-month rolling rate of job adds versus the change in the working-age population.  It's what I've been raising Hell about since the 1990s, and it hasn't changed.  During this entire so-called "recovery" we've bumped around the zero line and factually Trump's "bump" was smaller than Obama's and is also over.

In other words we're back to negative impact in this regard, and this is the chart when it comes to government spending sustainability so long as we have a massive welfare state, which we not only do there is exactly zero real effort at changing that from either political party.

All I heard today was how "terrible" it is that people can't be found to do various jobs.  Oh they can be found -- but the companies don't like the wages they have to pay, so they offshore the labor or hire H1bs, H2bs and illegal invaders, all three of which screw Americans to the wall.

 

The expected two ticks improvement in the employment:population ratio (roughly what it usually is this month) occurred.  Big whoopie.  What also continued, however, is the nasty pattern in jobs by educational attainment -- less than High School (e.g. those H2bs and illegals) gained a massive 11 ticks (1.1%) while high school grads lost three ticks, some college attaining people gained a whole one tick and those with a Bachelors or better lost four.

In other words the gains are all coming in illegal invader strawberry pickers and roofers, not in high skilled, high-paying jobs.

And oh by the way the gains aren't in agricultural work either.  They actually lost positions last month.  Ok, not strawberry pickers -- it's all the Mexican roofers.

Oh by the way, for those who think "non-store retailers" will save us, nope.  They added a statistical zero jobs last month and under 30,000 over the last year.  Absolutely not material.

Finally, trade and transportation had a decrease in weekly hours worked in both wholesale and retail trade categories.  The consumer is fine?  Uh huh, sure he/she is.

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