The Market Ticker
Commentary on The Capital Markets- Category [Employment]

From The Usual Lie Factory Suspects....

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 257,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in retail trade, construction, health care, financial activities, and manufacturing.

Suuuure it did.

Oh yeah, there were big revisions too -- +147k for the last two months.

Now let's remember a few things.  First, January is never a "clean" month because the seasonal workers that were hired in October and November (for Christmas) get fired.  Thus it is virtually a "law" of economics that the actual figures will show a (large) decline in this month.

In other words, it is the made-up number that is reported and never the real one.

Further, the so-called "birth-death" adjustment for small businesses is also in play.  Never mind that independent study has shown that the net of small businesses has gone negative; this means that the so-called "birth-death adjustment" has to be negative too, or it is an outright fraud.

So with that in mind let's have a look at the actual data.

The net change in non-institutional population (defined: All persons 16 years and older) was +696, reflecting the annual adjustment.  However, this means the working-age population rose last year by 2.8 million people!

Oh by the way, that's an outrageous outlier, which begs the question -- did we allow in another 600,000+ illegal invaders last year?  The usual increase in this figure is in the range of ~2-2.2 million..... so where did the other 600,000 working-age people come from?

The net change in employed was -638,000, which is pretty much "up the middle" for a January.  There have been (notably) worse net changes; last year was close to 900,000.  But yes, it's January, so a negative actual print is expected.

This change in the working-age population, by the way, means the net job gains are now effectively zero over the last year; the entire last year's gain is now only 218,000 jobs!

Last month's household employed number looked to be headed southbound, as did the previous month.  Well, now it's strongly negative, but what's worse is that it's now negative on the household number three months running and at an increasing rate; -270, -476 and now -638.  December is also often net negative (lightly) but this is materially worse than last year, and further November last year was positive 631k (as expected) while this year it was negative 270,000.

Next month this figure should be positive; historically speaking it should be positive by somewhere around 600k.

We already have a recession warning in the three-month run rate of "employed" people via the household survey; if we print under +500k next month the net delta will be large enough that hiding what's happening in the other economic releases via various fudge factors will become nearly impossible.

As expected this also dropped the employment:population ratio -- materially.  The improvement in this ratio has now been not only broken but decisively destroyed; it is back to where it was in March of last year!

This is a crap report; all of the so-called "improvement" was due to outright lying via "seasonal adjustment" and what's worse is that the BLS is now admitting that we put 600,000+ more people into the working age population group last year, almost certainly via illegal immigration, than is normal for a given year.

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If you've read my employment reporting for the last several years you already know this.

Gallup has been talking about it too, but this is a particularly poignant reminder.

Here's something that many Americans -- including some of the smartest and most educated among us -- don't know: The official unemployment rate, as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor, is extremely misleading.

Right now, we're hearing much celebrating from the media, the White House and Wall Street about how unemployment is "down" to 5.6%. The cheerleading for this number is deafening. The media loves a comeback story, the White House wants to score political points and Wall Street would like you to stay in the market.

Of course.  The facts don't matter; all that matters is that the stock market continues to go up and Obama isn't drummed out of office and then run out of the country on a rail.  Between government gimmes and outright lies about the economy the orchestration has been stunning in both scale and scope.

But as I've pointed out the simple math is something else entirely.  Yes, there are 2 million more people working now than there were when the unemployment rate first went over 6% in 2008.

However, there are 15 million more working-age people in the country.

One of the "big lies" is that the population is getting older and thus not working any more.  That's a lie too.  Of those who are over 65 want a job and are not disabled the unemployment rate is under 4%.

No other portion of the population is doing as well.

I hear all the time that "unemployment is greatly reduced, but the people aren't feeling it." When the media, talking heads, the White House and Wall Street start reporting the truth -- the percent of Americans in good jobs; jobs that are full time and real -- then we will quit wondering why Americans aren't "feeling" something that doesn't remotely reflect the reality in their lives. And we will also quit wondering what hollowed out the middle class.

Well, no on the latter.

What hollowed out the middle class is pretty simple too, but nobody will talk about that either.  Unbridled unlawful immigration and exporting our jobs to effective slave labor nations in the name of "free trade" did that.  Oh, by the way, they want to do more of that too -- the "Trans Pacific Partnership" is the latest incantation.

You're not going to stop that one either are you America?

Nope, you're not, just like you won't stop the illegal immigration and you won't stop the offshoring.  Hell, you won't even stop buying iCrap made in sweatshops over in China; that iCrap is far more important to you than whether you, or your neighbor, has a good job.

We deserve what's coming and we have in fact done it to ourselves.

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