The Market Ticker
Commentary on The Capital Markets- Category [Employment]

Holy crap.

This is a blow-out report, and so far out of line with reality on the headline that my first reaction (given that it's so ridiculously out of line with trends) is that I have to wonder if it's a mistake -- or an intentional distortion.

Nonetheless, let's look at what we've got.

There's no blow-out evident here.  But..... if you look at the population-corrected job gain number:

So is this so good eh? Uh.....

Finally, the population-corrected employment ratio spiked upward as well:

Now here's the fly in the ointment: There are ~2.2 million more people "out of the labor force" now than in October of last year!

Let's put a few other lies to bed with this report.  It is still often claimed that women face discrimination in employment, even today.  Nope; it is men who face it.  Adult women (20 and older), in the last year, went from 5.4% unemployment to 4.5%.  Adult men went from 5.1% to 4.7% or less than half the improvement that women experienced.  Let's serve up a big cup of STFU to the gender screamers.

The really big gains came in services, particularly retail trade along with "professional and business services" (of which a big, big piece is temp work.)  Retail trade?  Yep.

Among the sub-groups broken out the female overrepresentation continues in a big way.  Men didn't get much of an improvement in that regard, ticking up a tenth in participation rate while women got four times as much.

It gets even more interesting when you start looking across racial lines.  White men 20+ got zero advancement.  White women got 0.4%.  Black men got one tenth while black women got six tenths.

Oh, and Asians actually lost five tenths in participation rate.

The same is true in the hispanic sub-group but there it is even more outrageous.  Hispanic men ticked up three tenths in participation but hispanic women gained eight tenths.

Among educational subgroups those with no diploma were flat, high school grads managed a 0.3% improvement, those with some college also got nothing and those with a degree only managed 0.1%.

If you believe this report then while we're creating a lot of jobs there is no longer an argument for college that does not lead to a Bachelors and damn little argument for any sort of degree.  This has been true for quite a long time as I've been reporting but on a blow-out number like this it is an utter knife in the back to anyone taking on debt for so-called "benefit" in the educational system.

There's a major problem for the Fed in this number, however, in that if it's not "cooked" but represents real job conditions then the lower-end of the economy, which is where virtually all the jobs have been created since 2009 is going to start experiencing very severe forward wage pressure in the near future.  They're way behind the curve and this is exactly what a number of people have warned out with the ridiculous ZIRP policies that have been adopted and maintained since the crash.

Look out folks, because while you might think this is a nice warm breeze what you're probably feeling is the leading edge of a 3,000K windstorm headed in your direction.

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