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2021-10-09 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Employment , 5797 references
[Comments enabled]  

Likely explanation, beyond them being sick of your bull**** with mandates: They're DEAD.

But first, our usual report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 194,000 in September, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in public education declined over the month.

This was a wild miss after ADP reported in on Wednesday.  I predicted that and it doesn't surprise me one bit.

Remember that this report captures during the survey week, which was in the middle of September, not "Friday."

And a quick reminder: I always work off the unadjusted household numbers.  Always have, always will.  You're free to use whatever you want but since Christmas comes every at the same time this tends to make intentional ****ery much harder, and the government is known for it.

The decline in the unemployment rate was not due to people "finding jobs."  It was due to over half a million of them deciding to walk off and not care.  That's a lot of people, and it's the second consecutive month after a strong of mostly-good news in that regard since January.  Last month also say a large (1.1 million) "walk off" rate.

What has changed?  Mandates came in this spring and now its jab mandates, not just masks although the last couple of months might well have been both -- specifically, many businesses going back to "Employees must wear one -- ha-ha we told you things would be normal if you just took the shot.  We lied."

The only people who gained ground this month were those with 4-year degrees or better.  Everyone else was stagnant.  Work from home, anyone?  No masks in your house, right?  That doesn't apply to people stocking shelves and moving material around though does it?

But that's not the real trouble sign here.  No, that's the annual run rate of non-institutional population over the last 12 months.  That is the total number of not-institutionalized people in the United States over the age of 16.  The only ways to leave that count once you join it on your 16th birthday are to:

  • Expatriate yourself and leave the US permanently.
  • Go to prison (you come back on it when you get out.)
  • Go to a nursing home (Reminder: The median life expectancy on admission to one is six months, after which you do the next.)
  • DIE.

The last two are basically the same thing since most people, once they go to a nursing home and come off the rolls for that reason never go back onto them, although you certainly could.

Deciding to hide in Mom's basement, going on disability or otherwise choosing never to work again whether by circumstance or personal decision does not remove you from this group.  It does take you out of the "workforce" number (and adds you to the "not in labor force" number) but not from this figure.

Here it is going back to the middle of 2020:

 

This number has run around 2 million on an annualized run-rate for a very long time.  It is somewhat responsive to economic booms and busts with a 16-17 year lag; more people make children, but when they do it takes 16-17 years for them to show up in this figure.  16-17 years ago was literally the best of times; birth rates were rising as we came out of the Tech Wreck.  Indeed in 2018 in December the annualized run rate was about 2.5 million.  It was in December of 2019 too -- right in front of Covid.  And in December of 2020 it was back to more-or-less baseline at 2.1 million.

So where did the 1.2 million people that should have been added to the workforce over the last year go?

They didn't go anywhere.  They were added.

This means the real question is who got subtracted?

The power of uncorrelated data sets is that the people who would **** with you through large-scale, institutional lying always forget about the uncorrelated data sets they do not control and thus are "out of their sphere of consciousness."

January of next year will be the adjustment month, as it always is.  But these estimates are what they are and if they're anywhere near accurate starting in February lots of people started dying who should not have died because the usual rate of death doesn't move these figures.

Something did -- and still is.

PS: Good luck trying to hire replacements if you fire those who refuse jabs in this sort of labor market.  If you're a corporation thinking it will all be good if you play "WokeToBiden" and will simply replace those you fire for their refusal to go along I'll be looking forward to your bankruptcy filing.

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2018-10-05 08:51 by Karl Denninger
in Employment , 295 references
 

This is a bad number -- especially on the back of last month's report.

The unemployment rate declined to 3.7 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 134,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.

This is utterly nasty and the drop in the unemployment rate is entirely due to an increase in the NILF figure -- people who have left the workforce.

Let's look inside:

 

In a word: Meh.

The 12 month change is below 2m.  The rate has been over 2m for roughly the last year, but now it is solidly below.  That's bad news, because the increase in working-age population is approximately 2 million, so if you can't manage to put up that number on a 12 month rolling basis you are losing ground.

 

Heh, look at that "formal unemployment rate" -- it's a multi-generational low.  But does it mean anything?

Not really since there the employment:population ratio is nowhere near the 1969 figures.  Having an "unemployment rate" that is extremely low because people aren't looking for jobs but are either sucking off public assistance or otherwise out of the workforce isn't positive -- it's negative since only working people pay taxes.

Have you looked at the annualized "debt to the penny" figures lately?  No?  Well maybe you should.  I'll help you out with that in the next few days in my usual annual report on exactly how much bull**** Washington DC has emitted into the "economy" and thus the fraud embedded in the GDP "expansion" rate.

Once again having a Bachelors or better did not outperform; all of the educational categories gained, but both high school dropouts and degree-holders managed one tick of advancement.  "Some College" and High School graduates both gained more, however, meaning that once again we are making McJobs and not, as is often said, positions for the "highly educated."

There are also indications of slack in the part-time statistics but this month I ignore them because of Florence.  If they persist into next month, however, they are likely an early indication of a negative turn in the economy and employment situation.

We shall see.

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