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2018-11-06 08:35 by Karl Denninger
in Employment , 110 references
[Comments enabled]  

Of course it was a "great deal" for America, and much fanfare greeted both Wisconsin Governor Walker and Donald Trump when Foxconn announced it was going to build a plant in Wisconsin.

Little-noticed (but reported on by myself) were two problems I initially identified -- first, the incentive package given (basically, you pay our taxes -- "you" being other Wisconsin residents and businesses) and second, the diversion of water through a swath of game-playing that one can easily argue violates long-standing rules on water allocation out of the great lakes.

But a bigger problem has now emerged -- it appears that Foxconn got Wisconsin and US Taxpayers have given away a huge amount of money in the form of those incentives while not guaranteeing that the workers hired will be Americans.  

You see, Foxconn is bringing in..... Chinese.

Uh, exactly how, one asks?  Likely through H1b abuse and/or simply back-dooring them.

In any event so much for American jobs, and so much for said alleged "winning."

More like being fleeced -- again.

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2018-11-02 09:11 by Karl Denninger
in Employment , 64 references
[Comments enabled]  

So the screamer headline is

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 250,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in manufacturing, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing.

Big number.

On the household survey it was +761, with 600 of it coming from people returning to the labor force.  That reverses the (very bad) weakness seen in the August report (seasonal firing, and normal) and returns more-or-less to trend.

 

This report puts the 12 month figures back to where they've been before in recent years, which is right around the 1 million run-rate.  The fact that it came from forcing people back into the workforce is good as well; that impacts the employment:population ratio in the correct direction

 

The bad news in this report is that we continue to add people in highly-inflationary and monopolistic business practices -- specifically, health care -- which has been responsible for fully one third of the last 12 months gains.  This is outrageously unsustainable as only about 10% of those are actual physicians and nurses; the rest are people who are parasitic and simply drive up the cost.  But this is what happens when you run through decades of monopolist practices and goose the economy by doing so; the eventual fall-out (and it's coming folks!) when the bills cannot be paid will be catastrophic for anyone not in a direct care-giving portion of this industry.  I fully expect 2/3rds of these "jobs" to be lost!

In addition the trend that I have continued to note for the last several years continues unabated.  Jobs for people with less than a high school education continue to improve while those with bachelors degrees and better are unchanged.  This month those with "some college" (e.g. an associates, technical certificate, etc) did improve materially however - which is the first month in quite a while where there has been noted improvement there.

In addition labor cost-push inflation is now on the table.  Beware; the Fed is not going to ignore that.

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2018-10-05 08:51 by Karl Denninger
in Employment , 172 references
 

This is a bad number -- especially on the back of last month's report.

The unemployment rate declined to 3.7 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 134,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.

This is utterly nasty and the drop in the unemployment rate is entirely due to an increase in the NILF figure -- people who have left the workforce.

Let's look inside:

 

In a word: Meh.

The 12 month change is below 2m.  The rate has been over 2m for roughly the last year, but now it is solidly below.  That's bad news, because the increase in working-age population is approximately 2 million, so if you can't manage to put up that number on a 12 month rolling basis you are losing ground.

 

Heh, look at that "formal unemployment rate" -- it's a multi-generational low.  But does it mean anything?

Not really since there the employment:population ratio is nowhere near the 1969 figures.  Having an "unemployment rate" that is extremely low because people aren't looking for jobs but are either sucking off public assistance or otherwise out of the workforce isn't positive -- it's negative since only working people pay taxes.

Have you looked at the annualized "debt to the penny" figures lately?  No?  Well maybe you should.  I'll help you out with that in the next few days in my usual annual report on exactly how much bull**** Washington DC has emitted into the "economy" and thus the fraud embedded in the GDP "expansion" rate.

Once again having a Bachelors or better did not outperform; all of the educational categories gained, but both high school dropouts and degree-holders managed one tick of advancement.  "Some College" and High School graduates both gained more, however, meaning that once again we are making McJobs and not, as is often said, positions for the "highly educated."

There are also indications of slack in the part-time statistics but this month I ignore them because of Florence.  If they persist into next month, however, they are likely an early indication of a negative turn in the economy and employment situation.

We shall see.

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