The Market Ticker
Commentary on The Capital Markets
Logging in or registering will improve your experience here
Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives

Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be sent unmodified to lawmakers via print or electronic means or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media, to republish full articles, or for any commercial use (which includes any site where advertising is displayed.)

Submissions or tips on matters of economic or political interest may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Considering sending spam? Read this first.

You can't argue with the facts.

Open the economy now governors and Mr. President, or face your political death.  Those with letters after their names will come to recognize this and when they do public opinion will turn in a truly ugly way and your political lives are over.  All of them.

The measures you took never influenced the shape of the infection curve in any way.

All they did was destroy the economy.

View this entry with comments (opens new window)
 



2020-04-05 13:52 by Karl Denninger
in Flash , 309 references
[Comments enabled]  

I told you so!

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, warned that if the coronavirus outbreak does not get “globally under control,” it is likely to become a recurring problem.

Of course it will be a recurring problem.

You can't get this globally under control. 

Fauci said that people must be prepared for a resurgence next year, 

But you said we'd beat this and we couldn't reopen the economy until the deaths and cases went to an effective zero, and then it would be ok!  You lied again!

Never mind that we now know it infects and can be transmitted by cats, which means forget about "control" since it has already gotten into the feral cat population worldwide, that will serve as a reservoir and vector and there's no way to get rid of it.

Stop the shutdowns now.  They're worthless.  We're taking this economic damage in a mutual suicide pact for no reason.

The virus is going to do what it will do.  There will be no therapeutics or vaccine that we can develop, test and deploy beyond what we have available right now, which isn't perfect but appears to work a good part of the time and should be deployed aggressive at first sign of infection, not only when you are flat on your ass in the hospitalin an attempt to keep people out of the hospital.

smiley

Again.

View this entry with comments (opens new window)
 

2020-04-05 12:56 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 384 references
[Comments enabled]  

When a model's projections against actual results lie outside of its uncertainty band by more than 300% and all errors are in the same direction that model is worthless at best -- or an intentional fraud.

 

The model is worthless.

The lower boundary for claimed need for hospital beds is 120,000 as of yesterday.  The actual number required was just under 41,000, a miss of more than 300% to the high side.

The lower boundary for ICU beds needed as 21,383, a miss to the high side of more than 200%.

The lower boundary for vents required was 17,066, a miss to the high side of more than 1,300%.  I repeat -- THIRTEEN TIMES.

These projections were updated four days earlier and account for "full social distancing" by force of government -- that is, guns in the face, which many states have not employed.

Not one of the projections at the lower end of the confidence band has proved up.

Every single one has been off by at least a factor of 2 on the low end of the confidence band.  If you look at the center of the range it's even worse, and the high side is flat-out comical with the miss being as much as 25 TIMES.

Not 25%, TWENTY FIVE TIMES.

Now granted, this data is for the nation and some of the data on the national level is likely wrong due to under-reporting by the states.  Fine.  So pick your state that is actually providing its own data you can look up on a granular level -- say, Florida:

Here is actual and projected for today:

 

So projected is 3.701 or double the actual and again, way outside the confidence band.  And oh, by the way, see that nice roll-over in the case growth rate?  Maybe a false hope (wouldn't be the first one) but it's there.

Or how about Tennessee, which publishes its own data?  As of yesterday (April 4th) they had 311 people in the hospital.  What did the model say?

 

What?  The model said the state needs 4,000 beds and only 311 people are hospitalized?  WHAT THE ACTUAL ****?

Note that not only are all the misses outside of the confidence band, which means the model is trash they are all in the same direction too which is statistically impossible if these are actual true errors and not evidence of intentional bias.  I am more likely to win the damn Powerball than to have all of my "errors" miss both outside the confidence band and in the same direction unless I just flat-out made it up -- in other words, I lied.

Further, don't even attempt to claim that this is because "we locked down more than the model predicted."  No we didn't.  Here's what's on the top of the page:

 
Dr. Mengele, you have an urgent call on line 1....  Paging Dr. Mengele Fauxci/Birx on line 1!

Every Sheriff, Governor, Advisor and our President deserves to be tried and hanged if they continue beyond this day to rely in any way, shape or form on a proved blown model that they are now using to intentionally destroy the American economy and millions of people's livelihoods.

OPEN THE ECONOMY NOW.

View this entry with comments (opens new window)
 

2020-04-05 12:31 by Karl Denninger
in Podcasts , 59 references
[Comments enabled]  

View this entry with comments (opens new window)
 

2020-04-05 09:07 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 645 references
[Comments enabled]  

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

On the other hand, one's record is an appropriate thing to look at especially when your advice destroys 10 million jobs and 20%+ of the economy.

Q    Would you recommend that anybody, even a healthy person, get onboard a cruise ship?

DR. FAUCI:  Yeah.  Yeah.  Yeah.  I think if you’re a healthy, young person, that there is no reason, if you want to go on a cruise ship, to (not) go on a cruise ship.  Personally, I would never go on a cruise ship because I don’t like cruises — (laughter) — but that’s another story.

March 9th, 6:34 PM ET press conference.

May I point out that it was a mere eight days later that Ron DeSantis in Florida slammed closed the door on bars and restaurants along with constraining beach access, and that Fauxci issued this statement eight days after Mr. DeSantis declared a Public Health Emergency and in fact on the same day that he declared a State of Emergency as a result of Covid-19?

Still gonna honor the diktats of your Governors and let the President get away with basing his actions on the prognostications of his"trusted" adviser?  That's not enough to tell him and your local government to go to Hell, unlock the door and start serving beers?

Well, then let's continue because that wasn't his only blown call.  The second one cost us 10 million jobs so far and is on the way to cost is 50 million and a third of them may stay gone, permanently.  Fauxci's "favored model" for this virus, which incidentally is funded in no small part by one Bill Gates and is the predicate for all of the state and local shutdowns along with the "15 days" (that has now turned into 45) lie predicted that by now NY would need three times the ICU beds and ventilators they actually have in use.  That's not off by a bit -- it said they would need three times actual need, with the lockdown rules in place, right here, right now.

That has now been proved to be complete and utter bull****.

Yet the man who I now call Fauxci, much like Fauxahontas, instead of apologizing and withdrawing his recommendations continues to make claims and recommendations based on a blown model that we now know failed to verify -- after consigning thousands of people to floating petri dishes with folks carrying the virus to them in their daily food deliveries.

Oh by the way the bar is still closed and the jobs are still gone.

If Fauxci and Birx stood up there and told you to blow your own brains out would you do it?  Apparently so, because you are, right here and right now, instead of telling him, your governor and your "local officials" to go screw a goat.

Fauxci also says that if you "just follow the rules he puts forward and endorses, whatever those may be today" that the virus won't come back and nail us anyway when the lockdowns are released.

He's lying and in fact he has also stated that his "criteria" for when it would be ok to release the lockdowns is when the virus is eradicated or there is a vaccine The former will never happen; that has only been accomplished twice in the history of mankind, with the only one you've likely ever heard of being smallpox.  The latter is at least 18 months away and that is speculative; it may never come. I remind you this is one of the many who promised you a vaccine for HIV for the last 40 years. In other words his track record on such promises has a 100% failure rate and his criteria for when it's ok to end this insanity can be summed up in one word: Never.

Now he's telling you to get in a boxcar "for your own protection."  Still listening to him and those taking his advice, are ya?  Don't worry, it's a nice boxcar.  Indeed, where was the last place you saw people queue in lines with forced spacing and pacing to buy food from shelves that stand empty for weeks at a time?  Why that would be in third-world hellholes like Venezuela.  How long has the toilet paper aisle been empty again?

There is zero science behind his and Birx's repeated claim that the virus will not rebound, as I have repeatedly pointed out for the last two months. They intentionally cut off the right side of their "curve" graph beyond the "lockdown release date" and so do the Internet model screamers.  If they didn't their model would clearly show that rebound -- in other words, they lied, on purpose.

The virus will in fact rebound to essentially whatever degree it was going to do it up front when we open back up the economy, whether it's now or later, and waiting until later won't change the trajectory of that rebound by any material degree.

Additionally, as time has gone on we've added even more weight to the "you can't avoid this" side of the scale.  The first is the confirmation of what I modeled after Diamond Princess -- at least half of infections are asymptomatic.  A person who never gets sick will not seek treatment and yet they can pass on the infection before contact tracing can get to them. The odds of this happening sequentially between two sets of infected people are one in four, so it's happening all the damn time.  You will never find that one in four yet they can and will spread the virus.  And by the way this is a really good thing and you want it to happen because the asymptomatic infections do not cause active disease but still confer immunity and thus will eventually lead to the virus burning itself out. 

Second, the disease can infect and be transmitted among cats.  This makes it impossible to extinguish because a common housecat that gets the bug and goes outside has already -- you can be sure of it -- infected a feral cat.  That in turn means we now have both a reservoir and vector for the infection that we cannot control.

So here we have a man with two blown calls who admits on national television during a Press Conference that according to him it will never be time to reopen the economy and go back to work.  He in fact has set conditions in public that will never be met.

In fact what he's tried to do is nothing less than scare the entire nation, including our President, into a mutual suicide pact!

We must open the economy back up now and eject this so-called expert from the public policy area forever.  He has destroyed 10 million jobs and a quarter of our economy on the basis of a blown model and in addition told healthy people to get on cruise ships on his advice -- a call that has in several instances over the last month left said passengers stranded at sea with outbreaks of the virus on board and nowhere to dock.

We must mitigate the harm that we can with this bug but we can't stop it.  Further, delaying the pain will only make it worse, and risks deferring many more infections that we have to into the winter of next year when simultaneous infection with the flu will rise in probability.  The very last thing you want is both bugs at once -- unless your goal is for more people to die.

Is that your goal, America?

Both Fauxci and Birx's claims that we can actually extinguish this virus are lies.  They have started very carefully wording their responses to said questions -- because they know damn well it's going to come back no matter what we do.

Trump did do one good thing yesterday afternoon: He told the truth, although not in specific numbers, about ventilators.

The facts are that if you go on a ventilator due to this virus you will, with a high degree of certainty, die.  The goal has to be to not wind up on a ventilator rather than to have lots of ventilators and beds because your odds are almost bad enough that when they wheel you in to be hooked up to that machine they may as well stick you in the casket right there and save the extra step later.

Might we wind up in a triage situation doing this?  Yep.  We might.  But we tell everyone up front -- if it happens open slots in the ICU are going to be reserved for the guy who has a heart attack.  That means they won't be there for you.  That does suck, but the odds of the rescue failing are 90% for you, and 50% for the guy with the heart attack.

We tell everyone this going in -- no surprises -- so if you're at high risk, and thus statistically you will be the among those that generate the overload problem then you choose whether to attempt prophylaxis to mitigate the risk or to shelter in place.  We urge you to do either or both and warn that if you choose "no" and lose the bet there's a decent chance you won't like it, but we do not force people to take our advice.

Why?

Because while a 10% chance of survival beats a 0% one, 10% odds suck.  Badly.  In fact they suck so badly that if one is relying on "ventilators" as a rescue if you get this bug you are flat-out insane.  If we can keep you out of the hospital in the first place then the triage situation never arises and you don't die, which is the point.

We can't keep everyone out, but people can choose with a high degree of certainty to stay out of the hospital by their own personal actions if at high risk, and those people with serious underlying disease are 98% of the people who will wind up on that ventilator and ultimately a fatal case.  Therefore it's their call -- and their ass.

There are many people, like my Mother in the last few months of her life, that may decide "**** it; if this thing gets me it does, and I'll trade lunch with my Son for that risk."

There are in fact 7,700 people who breathe their last every day from other causes in America and every one of them has the right to make that choice.  We have no right to deny them that option out of our fear and hubris.  We have already screwed 154,000 Americans out of that choice and we cannot make it up to them because they are dead.  That's more than double the number of people this virus has killed globally.

Fauxci must not be permitted to keep running a blown model as "gospel", never mind that you can't stop the spike; suppressing it, until and unless there is a vaccine that will almost certainly never come, and certainly won't within the next few months, doesn't change outcomes, it only changes time, and does so at horrific economic and personal cost.  In addition it adds the very real risk of unforeseen supply chain collapses.  If  one or more of those occur it could easily kill or injure a huge number of people, and if it happens it will occur with little or no warning and be impossible to mitigate.  The fear-mongering and economic shutdowns is likely to produce economic damage and permanent changes in consumer behavior that last years into the future along with severe impacts on public health across the board due to tax and funding shortfalls -- which again means death.  The two latter risks are possible but the 154,000 Americans already screwed out of their last days of social enjoying and the deferred, not evaded spike in cases that will come is not theoretical or possible -- those are either already in the past or are certain, and the latter will not be materially attenuated through delay.

Thus, my alternative plan from yesterday.

We must insist to each of our State, County and local officials along with the Federal Government that they must re-open our local and state economies now -- and that we the people both mean it and will back that demand up with whatever is necessary to enforce that demand.  They work for us, not the other way around.  We're done with the scaremongering, lies and trivially-provable bad bargain.  Yeah, we get it -- people are and will die of this virus. That sucks and nobody wants it but the politicians, Wall Street **********s and so-called "business" mavens along with all the SJW scolds calling everyone a racist for the last 20 years are why we didn't tell the Communist Chinese to go screw some of those bats they're selling in their wet market instead of running a ******ned greyhound bus line full of viral carriers between Wuhan and the United States.  We'll get to all of you *******s on the other side of this and make both them and the Chinese eat the consequences of what you shoved down our throats. If you want a reason to head for a bunker, that's a good one because those of us who survive this thing will be coming for you.  Nuremberg has nothing on what's coming; this atrocity, unlike that one, wasn't confined to Europe.

But today we will not trade a possible health system overload (which the models predicted and thus far failed to verify to the tune of 300% vs their predictions) for the same potential overload plus a destroyed economy plus the risk of a critical supply chain break that kills or injures huge numbers of people.  That is not just a bad trade it's insane to invoke and maintain such policies.

To quarantine people with a known infection is reasonable, and when we identify a positive individual to insist they remain isolated until they no longer have an active viral infection makes sense.  To contact trace and test said people for infection, placing a quarantine on those who we find are positive until they are not, is also reasonable.  These are standard and rational public health measures for any communicable disease.

But to constrain people who are not ill into literal house arrest and force businesses closed on the speculative claims of a man who has been wrong twice sequentially about the course of this outbreak, in one case resulting in thousands of people literally imprisoned on cruise ships and in the second overstating required medical resources by three times what was actually necessary on a date-certain in the future is criminal malfeasance, a 5th Amendment "taking" without valid public purpose or compensation and to the extent it involves "stay-home" orders felony false imprisonment when no offense has been committed -- and we must not stand for it.

These "official prognosticators" have blown their projections and advice not once, but twice sequentially and no, you don't get a third swing at the ball.  To quote from the Declaration:

"...all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed."

Indeed, which is why I have not proposed dragging everyone involved in this scam out by their hair into the public square and giving them exactly as much due process of law as they gave everyone in America before handing out their diktats.

But enough is enough.

Open the economy and drop the constraints now.

Now does not mean next week, not next month and not whenever (or if ever) Fauxci says "Oh, ok, gee, I was wrong, I'm so sorry (again)."

Those of you with your "models" were already wrong twice and have boned thousands of people on those cruise ships, 154,000 who have been permanently screwed out of the companionship of their loved ones against their will and millions more who are now out of work, all for a trivially-demonstrable nothing.

Now means NOW.

View this entry with comments (opens new window)