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2019-03-22 20:47 by Karl Denninger
in International , 87 references
[Comments enabled]  

Now this is good....

And some folks say gun owners don’t have a rebellious streak in them. With less than 24 hours, the NZ Police was forced to shut down their gun confiscation website due to massive amounts of online trolling.

Submitted "guns" include a MIG-15, a B-61 thermonuclear bomb and one phased plasma rifle.


I wonder how well their "hand-in" will go over there for real.  Perhaps about as well as it has in places like New York where non-compliance rates are estimated at 95% and the NY State goons have not attempted enforcement.

When 95% of the people do this:


You probably want to reconsider whether you're really willing to put a stick in that hornet's nest as there are far more hornets than there "enforcers" and the hornets are dispersed enough that you can't go after them all at once.

Oh by the way in 4 days we'll see how many of the estimated half-million Bump Stocks get turned over which were unconstitutionally declared to be "machine guns" (never mind that machine guns are 2nd Amendment firearms too.)  Anyone care to hazard a guess?

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2019-03-22 15:43 by Karl Denninger
in Federal Government , 120 references
[Comments enabled]  

Heh, why not.

From the current MTS....


"Social Insurance and Retirement" = Social Security and Medicare (combined) is $484 billion.

Approximately 80% is Social Security, so $387 billion.  Spent is $425, or a cash deficit of about 9%.  Not so bad.

The rest is Medicare or $97 billion taxed and $257 billion spent, or a cash deficit of about 62%.  Catastrophic; you'd have to roughly triple the Medicare tax rate to balance it (as opposed to add 9% to Social Security.)

Medicaid, of course, has zero tax associated with it and that is another $223 billion, or almost as much as Medicare.  You said triple, eh?  Multiply by six to get to parity, not three.  And by the way that excludes Veterans which is accounted for separately.

Now this is off the chart.  Of the detailed data due to shifting things around the numbers look somewhat different, but not much different.  Let's do it off the numbers.

Note that on budget only shows $115 billion of employment and retirement taxes; the other $356 billion was off budget.  Ain't that special?

Social Security ($448 billion) and "Health and Human Services" ($483 billion, Medicare and Medicaid, mostly) have almost-identical spending but one is funded with a 12.2% tax and the other funded with a 2.9% tax.  Guess where the problem is when one runs a small but real operating cash deficit and the other is catastrophically in the hole while both spend close to the same amount?

Uh huh.

Are we ever going to stop conflating these two and putting them together?

Probably not as long as we don't start pointing out that if this is not stopped and the nation goes off the fiscal cliff, which will happen almost instantly when that shift in the deficit occur, the "lack of civility today" will, in retrospect and by comparison, appear to be far nicer than the average Girl Scout convention.

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2019-03-22 12:34 by Karl Denninger
in POTD , 88 references

The same "lalalalalalala" fingers in the ears nonsense from Jerome and Trump..... yeah, looks like this.


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2019-03-22 09:20 by Karl Denninger
in Interviews , 44 references
[Comments enabled]  

Come and get it!  Two segments; I'm on about halfway through each.

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2019-03-22 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Corruption , 224 references
[Comments enabled]  

I think we've reached the point of maximum stupidity for our media.

ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) - The captain of a doomed Ethiopian Airlines flight did not get a chance to practice on his airline’s new simulator for the Boeing 737 MAX 8 before he died in a crash with 157 others, a pilot colleague said.

That's because the FAA and other certifying authorities didn't require it and the reason they didn't require it is that Boeing intentionally designed the MCAS system to circumvent what would otherwise be a requirement to do so in order to commercially fly the plane.

Guess who wanted it that way?

The Airlines.

Rather than say No! Boeing gave them exactly what they wanted so their pilots would not have to take additional training beyond a short iPAD presentation before flying the aircraft and additionally charged extra for a software change and warning light that the two AOA sensors on the aircraft did not agree.  Why did Boeing do that?  Because they could and Boeing's corporate culture had rotted to a degree that allowed the maximization of revenue even when it impacted safety and our government, which should have prevented that crap being pulled with a critical flight control element, did not do so because the FAA had been corrupted too.

In addition we now know that before the Lion Air crash of the same type and model of aircraft a few months ago the same thing that crashed the plane happened on the previous flight but a pilot who was flying "jump" (in the jumpseat) was able to help diagnose and overcome the issue.

The plane was neither diverted immediately following the event to the closest usable runway and landed nor was it taken out of service until the cause of the malfunction was identified and run down so as to make sure it couldn't happen again along with public reports being filed so everyone was on notice and corrections could be made -- before the first hull and over 150 people were lost.

Those two decisions were not Boeing's -- they were a matter of corporate culture at the carrier involved.

Finally, Reuters is now reporting that the MAX simulator isn't an actual simulator of the aircraft as it behaves!

Ethiopian Airlines said on Thursday its pilots had completed training recommended by Boeing and approved by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on differences between the previous 737 NG aircraft and the 737 MAX version.

They were also briefed on an emergency directive after the Indonesia crash, which was incorporated into manuals and procedures, it said in a tweet. The 737 MAX simulator was not designed to replicate the MCAS system problems, it added.

In other words the airline followed the rules put forward by the plane manufacturer and regulatory apparatus and, even worse, the simulator isn't an accurate simulation and as such even if the pilot had attempted to train on that specific scenario in the simulator he wouldn't have learned about the potential problem and thus not had to run it down.

If any of those four outrageous decisions had not occurred -- any of the four -- both planes and more than 300 people would still be here and that's a fact.

In addition the plane is in service, including in the United States, but there were only four simulators available worldwide at the time of the Lion Air crash and none in the United States, never mind that the simulator doesn't actually replicate the behavior of the MCAS system!  There will be no simulators available at Southwest Airlines in the United States, for example, until October of this year -- roughly six months from now -- yet Southwest is flying the aircraft.

The entire purpose of a strong regulatory structure around highly technical, inherently dangerous and yet very useful things we all want in society -- air travel, nuclear power, various chemicals that are produced for both consumer and industrial use, automobiles and more -- is to encourage a strong "safety first" culture within these firms through the implied threat of regulatory spankings before people get killed and to insure that said spankings happen if greed and corrosion of the corporate culture intrude anyway.

The rot that leads to this sort of thing does not happen in a week or a year.  It requires a long time -- years or even decades -- to percolate through an organization and erode the culture and structure of the firm along with a deliberate series of actions to infiltrate, tamper with and destroy the regulatory structures that would otherwise have stomped on that crap like a piano falling on your head -- long before people get killed.

Don't fool yourself further folks: It cannot be fixed quickly either.

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