Hoh hoh here comes policy error.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, government, social assistance, and construction.

Uh, unemployment ticked down so where's the labor softness?

More to the point in the unadjusted household survey it didn't "tick" down it collapsed by five ticks to 3.9% from 4.4 and that survey not only showed 698,000 job gains it did so into an increase in couch-surfers of 419,000 people as well who voluntarily left the labor force to sit it out.

If you believe the inflation genie is going to remain corked up under that scenario, along with The Fed trying to "ease" you're out of your blinking mind.  This is the precise error The Fed made in the 1970s and its going to lead to the same result.

Do not mistake this for actual "prosperity" however; it is all debt-fueled as the Treasury data clearly shows.  Yes, the formal MTS is not yet out for September (it will be) but Treasury set an actual one-day record for deficit spending right at the first of the month.

Problem: Its being siphoned off which is why FEMA is crying poormouth and this, my friends, is why you're not getting ahead unless you're one of the few who has managed to figure out a way to pull that garbage.

As with all Fed moves the impact is 6-12 months later which means the nasty inflation spike, which I now definitely do expect, will come after the election -- but come it will.