Not so fast.....

First there is no un-inversion happening in the curve between the 13 week bill and 10 year.  There should be if the economy is stabilizing -- that is, a "soft landing."  That's not happening despite the repeated recovery from dips (and quickly too) in the equity markets.

Second, the CPI continues to show triple the so-called "target" in housing costs, which is extremely bad from a consumer point of view and quadruple the target for transportation services.  Yes, last month was very cool -- last month.  But car insurance continues with an annualized rate of 16.5% and last month was 0.4%, which again annualizes out to triple the target, more or less.

What kept a cap on things was energy prices, specifically fuel oil (diesel) and gasoline.  That spread has been contracting for the last year or so and its bad, not good, because it indicates slack demand on the transportation side.

One month does ot a trend make but the Trade and Transportation sub-indices in the PPI report do not indicate a strongly-growing economy.  In fact, they indicate weakness and have all year.  This is when the ramp-up should be starting for the holiday season -- and there is no evidence of it.

If you believe that a bunch of "AI will make everything double in the market!" realize that if you're right it will also mean the lower half of wage-earners will now make zero and the result will be a collapse of tax receipts and consumer spending.  Oh, it may take six months or a year beyond when that claim proves to be true for it to happen, but it will happen.

If you're wrong then all that air comes out of the market, the economy does not collapse nor do government revenues but your stock portfolio does.

Incidentally the current MTS is out and its ugly.  $307 billion was collected in revenue last month by Treasury but they spent more than double that, $687 billion. We are currently, with one month left to go, running a 30% fiscal deficit for the fiscal year which is directly levitating asset prices and providing a false belief that the economy is actually reasonably healthy when it clearly is not.

How fast do you go broke when you spend 223% as much as you make, and how well-off do you appear to someone looking at you from the outside without knowing your financial condition when you spend more than twice what you earn?  You're drinking Blanton's Special Reserve when you can't even afford a bottle of Mad Dog 20/20.

Want to know why the stock market is holding up?  That's the reason and yet if you think that can continue on a permanent forward basis whatever you're smoking its not legal anywhere in the United States.