But Inflation Was Going Away!
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Login or register to improve your experience
Main Navigation
Sarah's Resources You Should See
Full-Text Search & Archives
Leverage, the book
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions. For investment, legal or other professional advice specific to your situation contact a licensed professional in your jurisdiction.


Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility; author(s) may have positions in securities or firms mentioned and have no duty to disclose same.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be sent unmodified to lawmakers via print or electronic means or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media, to republish full articles, or for any commercial use (which includes any site where advertising is displayed.)

Submissions or tips on matters of economic or political interest may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must be complete (NOT a "pitch"), include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. Pitch emails missing the above will be silently deleted. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Considering sending spam? Read this first.

2023-09-14 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Consumer , 367 references Ignore this thread
But Inflation Was Going Away!
[Comments enabled]

Uh, no it isn't.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.6 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Uh huh.  Going away eh?  Uh, no.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in August, following a 0.2-percent increase in July. Indexes which increased in August include rent, owners’ equivalent rent, motor vehicle insurance, medical care, and personal care. The indexes for lodging away from home, used cars and trucks, and recreation were among those that decreased over the month.

Stuff you have to buy went up, things you can choose to buy but don't have to went down.

If you have two nickels worth of IQ points to rub together the reason for the latter of obvious: Slack demand as a result of no money to spend on such things.  I can fix my existing car instead of buying another one and the other two are 100% discretionary.


Transportation energy (fuel oil and gasoline) was up substantially last month, as everyone has seen.  Thanks Joe.

Restaurants seem to think they can keep jacking prices too; food away from home continues to rise much faster than groceries.  I got news for those folks: There's a point where the price of a hamburger or beer isn't worth it, particularly compared to buying the same beer in a six-pack at Kroger and cooking the burger at your own place, and when that happens your income as a bar or restaurant owner goes to zero.

Are we seeing that?  Why yes, yes we are.

Both rent and OER (bah!) rose comparable and in fact aren't much different in change over the last 12 months.  OER is understated by a wild amount; between price ramps and interest rate increases anyone who thinks the cost of a house (in terms of payments) is only up 7.3% over the last year has rocks in their head.  Never mind that my experience among people I talk to who rent is that the last two years have both seen double-digit rent increases on a percentage basis.

Car insurance was up 2.1% on the month which I can believe, along with the ~20% annual rate.  That's about right.  You don't need to buy that, right?  The illegal alien doesn't bother with it, of course, he doesn't have anything to take when he hits you, and they won't jail or deport him, so he doesn't care.

Want to see a real farce?  They claim health insurance costs are down by a third over the last year, and 3.6% this month.  Suuuuurrrre it is.

What's up wildly?  Car repair, up 17%.  What did I say about people fixing rather than replacing?  Yep.  There it is.

Got a pet?  Pay 8.5% more for services, including the vet bill.

But inflation is 4%, they said.  Suuuure it is.  The food is up 8.7% too so..... yeah.

What's the cause of all of it?

Deficit spending.