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|User Info||The Consumer Is Strong!; entered at 2023-09-12 09:22:48|
I think we are all saying the same thing.....a toxic loop or shit stew between inflation and wages/output.....it don't add up.
I would have thought that by now, mortgages hitting almost 8% would have utterly crashed the RE market.
Why? Because housing supply is still short (obviously location dependent) AND tons of folks (including your truly) have a 2%-3%-ish mortgage rate. So I wouldn't move now even if my place was burning down, and with my ass still in it.
Few are building due at least in part to labor shortages (except I see lots of new storage facilities and going apartments---go figure). And no one is moving who doesn't have to. All cash deals are still happening, not sure how big of a piece of the market that is.
This is fuckery from all sides and and in all sorts of ways, hence why centrally planned economies don't work. We should be seeing declining household incomes & employment PLUS rising prices. I expect this to happen. It just hasn't happened yet, at least on the unemployment side of things. I suspect that the worse inflation gets...the worse the enticement to work will be. Inflation is theft by design.
A viscous circle caused by sheer lunacy, principally when adults believe in an old white dude with a beard from on high who hands out freebies.
Not Santa Claus this time....but Uncle Sam.