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User Info Ignore The Political Grandstanding; entered at 2023-01-22 10:06:55
Posts: 2137
Registered: 2021-07-10 FEMA Region 4
The Republicans have fought this battle several times in the past, with them losing everytime. And in each of those circumstances, they were in a much stronger position (numbers wise with regards to size of majority) that they are today.

Every time, the government got shut down, the Democrats worked with the media to demonize the Republicans, and the Republicans eventually caved. To add insult to injury, they then all voted to give back-pay to the federal workers for not working.

This time, they appear to be smarter by breaking up the budget into individual appropriations bills. That means the national parks won't have to close while the Republicans fight a battle over foreign aid or the border or some other issue. Unless the Senate refuses to take up a clean bill, or Biden vetos it. Then they can blame the Democrats. That is the first battle.

The next battle is the individual items within each appropriations bill. Such as building a border wall, or national E-verify, etc. This one is tough since the Republicans have such a small majority. If they lose 5 votes within their caucus, they are done. So I don't expect a lot of significant policy wins as a result. If they are smart, they will pick up a handful of items with 100% support within the caucus, and fight like hell by refusing to fund the departments until the Senate and Biden agree.

Also keep in mind that if they go too far right, they risk having several House seats flip in 2024 (enough to lose the House). There are many GOP House seats that are swing districts. So the calculus is "do you risk losing the House in 2024 to possibly secure small incremental victories in 2023?"

There is also a political calculus for the Democrats: "how hard do we fight these common sense reforms in the Senate, with nearly 10 seats at-risk in 2024?"
2023-01-22 10:06:55