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2022-09-20 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Monetary , 851 references Ignore this thread
75 bips
[Comments enabled]

The Fed does not lead the market; the opposite is almost-always the case.

(Ed: You can click "customize" to see the entire graph and change its timeframe, etc. or if your screen is too small for it to properly display.)

What does this tell you?  With the 3-month "constant maturity" trading at 3.20% and effective Fed Funds at 2.33% a minimum of 75bps is coming this week and 100 is not off the table by any means.

In fact 100bps, from this data, was the right number just last Tuesday.

Indeed if you go to the source and look at this data series over time you find that in virtually every case the market leads The Fed, so the idea that the Fed "controls" rates rather than doing whatever the market tells it to is, on the evidence, crap.

That is, on the way up and on the way down the 13-week T-bill leads, not follows the EFF; it almost always moves first.

Go ahead and run all the Reynolds-wrapped nonsense you'd like; the data says The Fed does not make these decisions; rather, it is led around by the nose whether it likes it or not.

The Fed is not "behind" this time -- they're behind every time because it is a myth that they actually get to decide.

Until you see the 13 week turn the other way in a meaningful fashion rates are going higher and, from the slope of things at this point, not slowly either.