Fact: There is no immunity or protection against The Law of Scoreboards.
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|User Info||The Simple Facts On Equities And Debt; entered at 2022-09-16 07:32:24|
In 2007 a fairly basic mathematical model said we should have seen the /DX go to 40 from about 80, which is where it was. It didn't. WHEN it didn't I had to re-examine a number of things, because obviously I was wrong about that, and figure out WHY I was wrong.|
That's what led me to the reality of international trade sequestration. It fit EXACTLY and then tracked for the next 10 years, which is pretty damn good. But both Congress AND BUSINESS believed this would continue forever, and worse, that there would never be higher rates as a result.
That's ****ing stupid; nothing, and I do mean nothing, ever goes on forever. EVENTUALLY there is a shift and its one thing to exploit a trend for a while when its in your favor, but if you do it at the expense of getting ****ed when it reverses, boy YOU ARE STUPID and you deserve what you're going to up your chute when it does.