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User Info 2021: The Year In Review, And A Wee Light In The Tunnel; entered at 2021-12-28 06:43:37
Posts: 5299
Registered: 2011-04-14
I am going to cherry-pick a few predictions.

Inflation will not calm down.
There seems to be quite a lag with inflation, both in its starting and stopping. If, and its a big if, there is a reduction in inflation it will not show up until the last quarter. So, I agree with your prediction. If the Fed shows some balls, 2023 will be the year inflation calms down.

The Democrats are going to get obliterated in the midterms.
100%. November is 11 months away and a lot can happen in politics in 11 months. With that said, I agree with your prediction.

The Fed is going to get forced into actual liquidity drains.
I agree even though the Fed may find itself with two undesirable choices. Keep the housing/stock market going by keeping rates low, versus contain inflation by raising rates.

The equity market is extremely vulnerable over the next six to nine months.
Given that a roughly 33% pullback is needed to get the S&P 500 back to where it was pre-pandemic, there is a high likelihood of a 25% pullback this year. Especially since so much of the gains can be attributed to 10 stocks. If there is, I will slowly be buying back in. <This prediction, coupled with the one above, are my favorite two and, what I see happening this year.>

There is no short-term supply chain relief coming.
I agree. The term lead-time is one that most people hear and ignore. Looks like they should have paid more attention. The fragility of hundreds of suppliers spread over hundreds of countries has finally become evident.

The blue hives are in particularly-serious trouble.
Now we see what happens when you make long-term, firm promises based on dodgy, unrealistic forecasts.
This is especially true when you cannot prevent the people you are trying to take from, from moving.

Biden is finished this year.
Only if his issues get much worse. The people handling Biden love running the country. No way they give that up easily.

Housing, as a bubble, is done.
At the margin housing is a leverage game, even with a traditional 10% down mortgage you are getting 10x leverage. If rates go up, house prices go down. The government making loans more easily available actually makes house prices go up, the opposite of its stated goal of making houses more affordable.

Trump is done, and so are those who cling to him.
Trump and the Trumpsters experience a big fade-away this year. It is time to move on.
2021-12-28 06:43:37